Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Nifty bounces on the back of oversold Hour TA.




28 comments:

SURESH NIFTY said...

Ilango Sir,,,,How may quantity you recomend to trade start with ?? 2 lots or multiple lots??,,,,,is there any method to determine total capital required for 1 lot?,,,I searched entire blog in "JUST NIFTY" & found not much information,,please guide

CDG said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
CDG said...

two observations:

1. The daily Lead Indicator has paused in between in a downtrend which is little rare for the DAILY Lead Indicator. it can remain in OB or OS for sometime but it do complete its journey before reversing i.e to OS from OB and vice verse

2. The fall from Yesterday's High of 5186 to yesterday's low of 5042 was not retraced as yet and certainly not in complete time. 50% retrace is around 5115 and 62% retrace is around 5130.

Discussion is open Anybody like to comment???

shriram said...

Hi CDG,

pt.1 . wud like it if u can give the eq. for the Lead indicator

pt.2. Shraddha mentioned today morning.. 5135-5144 is to be eclipsed on EOD basis for serious upmove

Will we get it tomo ? Lets c ...

For today, 5DEMA has turned back UP , and we r worshippers of TREND, so.. :-)

Amol Sharma said...

Intraday chart looks me like "Roller coaster".

shriram said...

and CDG,

tomo-dayafter v important days... SUMMER SOLSTICE .... will WD GANN's fav date bring about the reversal ?? ;-)

CDG said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
CDG said...

I can't say anything about the solistice but the whipsaws since last 3 trading days were INDEED on extreme ends. I know you will agree atleast to this.
The Point 1 above was made after looking at the EOD charts of Ilango. for point number 2 I really couldn't understand the eclisping thing from Shraddha.
If you also look at the last chart (hourly) posted by Ilango you can see that today all the support was from lower channel and this support is rising dangerously. For tomorrow there needs to be big big push from BULLS to clear the rissing channel which will rise above 5100 tomorrow. If a singly hourly close gets below 5100 then you can very well imagine what could happen. I agree with you the close is above 5EMA so the trend is UP. Lets WISH that this remains this way.But what if channel support is breached on downSide. PT is hungry for quite sometime.
One last thing the Daily Trend indicator (which is a laggard indicator) has turned flatish. by the time it hits the trigger it will be too late and then combine it with the DAILY Lead indicator which is currently moving down.
Well I wish I am wrong in all this but i am just stating what's coming to my mind.What you say????

Ashish Agarwal said...

Shriram Ji,

Yes- saw the ascending triagnle...looks like a 5 wave... but i remain bearish.. potential short areas being range between 5124 to 5133, and then at 5154. Stoploss of 5 points in each case. Lets see..

anmpatel said...

???
how can some body bearish!!! on this blog??? close above jnsar, 5DEMA, 5week EMA, hourly indicator is up.
guys don't predict market its supreme power. just make a plan what you will do in response of market move.
don't predict it other wise market will punish you.
sorry i hurt anybody, but its my way of trading in military discipline.
though i quit my position in intraday but as i noticed that it is going to close above jnsar and 5DEMA i created long and carrying in with SL of 20 point fitter. today i lost around 80 point (approx 4k) but if i stay with system i will get 800 points.
this is not my self praise but friends NEVER EVER PREDICT MARKET. its dangerous. just develop confidence in you and keep the same in your system.
once again i am sorry if anybody hurt by my post.
am i right master. please delete my post if not proper.

anmpatel said...

???
how can some body bearish!!! on this blog??? close above jnsar, 5DEMA, 5week EMA, hourly indicator is up.
guys don't predict market its supreme power. just make a plan what you will do in response of market move.
don't predict it other wise market will punish you.
sorry i hurt anybody, but its my way of trading in military discipline.
though i quit my position in intraday but as i noticed that it is going to close above jnsar and 5DEMA i created long and carrying in with SL of 20 point fitter. today i lost around 80 point (approx 4k) but if i stay with system i will get 800 points.
this is not my self praise but friends NEVER EVER PREDICT MARKET. its dangerous. just develop confidence in you and keep the same in your system.
once again i am sorry if anybody hurt by my post.
am i right master. please delete my post if not proper.

SJkolkata said...

Master and other seniors,

I have some experience to share for your valued feedback. Shriram may give some light on the same.

The slope of 200dsma have been a very very strong indicator of prices, which i have followed in past and it had helped in my positional trades ( or to say the direction of market ) a lot.

The reason and basis, i am not very theoretical but have used it practically.

I remember the fall of 2010-11 to be recent, where the slope stagnated ard 5750 levels and therafter started falling. once the slope started falling nifty in last 2 yrs have not been able to close above that, inspite of several attemps to touch in the vicinity of 5-15 points.

The same replica is getting formed as per my eyes in the bullish direction and the slope have already started getting up.

In Shriram's ( mathematical ) words : dy/dx is +ve

Can anyone share some views on above.

Regards and Thanks.

shriram said...

Dear CDG,

By Summer Solstice Reversal , am talking bout a possible DOWN-TURN only.

If u can tell me the MATHEMATICAL Eq. for lead indicator, I can help answer ur pt no.1.. are u referring to 5DHiEMA ??

@ Ashish: Same thing --> ascending triangle, break below 5090 will give first hint & confirmation wud be going below 5060 (bottom channel line from 5042-5048)

For now, price close > 34EMA,30mins & 5DEMA has TURNED UP.. tomo it may turn DOWN also...

But as TREND FOLLOWERS, bias is now BULLISH, and we wait for the NEXT BREAD CRUMB "EVIDENCE" to decide the way to go home (make trades)

Lets see tomo, if we can sustain EOD > 5146

swing_trader said...

nifty 5ema is above 20ema..so opening will be positive..
50dma near to cross 200dma..if cross ..?

Manish Pandav said...

I am new to field. can any one tell m ehow to analys these pattern?
i know it is very hard, but tell me only key point to refer?

shriram said...

Dear SJKol ji,

Limiting to the discussion on 200DSMA, i hv no idea how this work, is the honest answer :-)

200 is too large a period & make a MA STATIC, so 200DSMA may indicate good LONG TERM SUPPORT / RESISTANCES, but for Intra or 2-4 days trading outlook, TRENDING INDICATORS are more apt as they have HIGHER FIDELITY to the price signal(read EMA/WMA/AMA) .

For now, request someone HIGHLY EXPERIENCED to answer the Q of 200DSMA !

best wishes

Sujatha said...

shriram - 5103 protection will hit your SL . may GOD BLESS. 3 pm closing will give clue.
June 19, 2012 2:47 PM

and nifty closed exactly there :) but still my "mayan is pending" let me see this time breakout upside is false or real??

thanks for your inputs.

Sujatha said...

Shriram - just done HW still in good trading set up

Nilesh Patil said...

@Manish Pandav,
I think it is a useful site for you
http://www.informedtrades.com/f111/

Sudhakar said...

Dear Sir

Please update JNSAR levels to stocks in Stock Wealth for 20-6-2012.

Thanks & Regards

Manish Pandav said...

@Nilesh Patil
Thx for sugesion. there are lot of info which take week or more to study

mynac said...

Dear Nilesh,

Read your afternoon comment but due to now a days Job work it is becoming tough to tougher for me to participate in-between market Hrs.and I,too missed you all.

Personally I donot believe in these types of "immediate reversals" after incomplete correction.For short term,it may look bullish but it is not the real one and lasting ones,when JNSAR is rising and will rise @ coming closer & will come closer to Nifty closing price is understanding...and NF & closer _+ 200 PE,CE O.I.does not suggest any "Lasting" move beyond 5200.Let us see.. Bye...Good Night..

shriram said...

sujata amma:

wid all luv for my malayalee frnds,

have a zimbule, humbule & nimbule request :-)

Pls Announce menu clear-cutta --> idli or dosa tomo ?? :-D

HARISH TAHKKAR said...

Anmpatel Sir,
You have correctly explaine to stay objective,
trade unbiased as per mechanical system & never
predicate which is dangerious.
As per my opinion JNSAR is calculated with profouond techanical knowledge on day T/F,as such it should be traded in direction of W.T/F to get best reults.I have noticed if JNSAR triggers in direction of WCEMA almost no whipsaw
& if there is diffirence one catch the other and
makes powerful momentum.
JNSAR to be viewed in I-D T/F,D T/F & W T/F and
to be traded with experience.
Kumar Sir has frequently pointed out “JNSAR is a SAR, if you are not using ur brain then you must be ready to give 20-40 points sometimes bcoz it gives back 200-300 in one go:) “

STOCK4SURE said...

The Federal Open Market Committee`s (FOMC`s) two-day meeting starts from today.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Sarah Hewin of Standard Chartered says, Quantitative Easing (QE) is unlikely to be announced at the meeting. "We think Operation Twist will be extended," she adds.


According to her, the Fed will probably want to do more quantitative easing at some point in the future. "We see the US economy struggling. So, at some point, there needs to be an additional stimulus which would come through QE," she asserts

Immortal said...

...........Today Bearish Thrusting Pattern....All the best and happy trading :)

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