Friday, June 15, 2012

Nifty Intraday update-I


79 comments:

Ilango said...

@ Prabhat ,

You have understood it well.

A Bear would sell closer to 5094 with a SL-5110. Bear would be in the game only with a break below 5083-34 Hr Sma & 5077-Day Pivot.

A bull would have bought at the open and keep 5065 as SL and raise it to 5077 as time goes by, part book @ 5105-5115 zone and allow the rest to trail.

Shradha Saburi said...

मुद्दते लाख बुरा चाहिए
वही होगा जो मंजूरे मार्केट होगा

parminder said...

Master in ur current chart why is the JNSAR at 5010 and not as per TT.
☺☺

Prabhat said...

@Subo: You are aged only 24 & want to come to stock mkt? Learning money management & controlling the greed for money at such young age is something tremendous.

I have just 3 advises for you:
1. As master always says "Grow rich slowly". Aim only for small consistent profits in the start.
2. Do paper trading for atleast 2 yrs before you venture in with real money.
3. Never over trade, stock mkts are there for life. You will get numerous opportunities all throughout.

shriram said...

Morning everyone!

@DR bhai :
SMA --> true average over a mean time period : Perfect 100/100

But SMA for Swing Trades ??
Formula says no .. SMA is the SLOWEST TO REACT TO TREND CHANGE! So Jury is out on this unless proven..

Longer period Fibbo SMAs as u rightly said OFTEN act as SUPPORTS / RES. Why is it so ? Have not been able to figure out.

Magic of Fibbo is my best guess :-)

For an ideal TREND FOLLOWING STRAT .. the Low pass Filter used shud have following charcteristics:
1. React FASTEST to TREND CHANGE (@ each T/f degree)
2. React LEAST to CYCLIC (corrective) MODES
3. NEVER OVERSHOOT PRICE

Fractal Adaptive MA & any Steady state estimation Filter (for eg- Kalman filters using bayes probability distribution) are way better than both EMA & SMA in this regard!

Rajendran's AFL code called SUPERTREND in Amibroker is one such brillaint implementaion of a Low Freq Pass Filter !

Ask him to explain the code, u will luv it.. :-)

have a gr8 day !

cheers

parminder said...

Imp fact of life;
Zindagi choti nahi hoti bus hamari khwaish badh jati hain.
Usi tarah koi bura nahin hota bus hamari soch badal jati hai.

shivanGupta said...

sir you said

Has 5047 completed the 2nd wave or could it fall again to 5015-23 zone as envisaged earlier??
The Answer would be given by the market alone when it deals with(or fails to deal with) the 5084-95 zone.

does this mean if 2nd wave has completed then nifty will stay above 5084-5095 after crossing it

Ilango said...

@ parminder,

If bullish, market should hold 5067. Accordingly, you may raise the JNSAR to 5052, the developing one for Monday.

Rajvada said...

The 76 % correction of yesterday’s fall comes at 5011, which is exactly master’s figure yesterday pointed. The 62% correction for the total fall from 5145 comes at 5109. DHEMA is at 5107. Hourly JNSAR at 5103. The zone 5103-5111 now could decide the further course. I would like to short here.

J.R.Julius said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
J.R.Julius said...

Camarilla Key Levels
Nifty Futures
H4 5105
H3 5080
L3 5029
L4 5003

subho said...

@ dear prabhat sir i enter in stock market when my age was 15+... now 9 running i entaire this job...

parminder said...

Master,
thanks for the Golden Words bt i am having no positions so just grazing thru ur TT and always waiting for ur Golden Words just trying to Grasp something out of the Boxes.
But i was just referring to TT 5010
☺☺

shriram said...

Nifty is weak if it closes @ 10:30 below 5092

Bulls need EOD close > 5075 to turn UP the 5DEMA

Lets c...

J.R.Julius said...

Really missing JN BLOG during market hours because of my new working environment & timings.

:(

:(

:(

Dinesh Rishi said...

shriram ji

my net down
using android
r
the lagging behaviour of SMA is advantage of swing trader

no maths trading experince can help u

Ilango said...

@ shivanGupta,

I would treat crossing of 5097 as a confirmation of 3/C wave starting.

Remember also that there are no absolutes in the market. Nevertheless, we make our studies, plan our strategies as though we know what's going to happen next.

As long as we manage our trades with proper SL, we can continue such acts.

CDG said...

@Ilango,

Can the rise of today from yesterday lows be marked as ii of the fall from 5144. if it is indeed ii then iii will open more downside and JNSAR will trigger.

J.R.Julius said...

Someone suggest medium budget android.

Nilesh Patil said...

Julius,
i think Micromax funbook

STOCK4SURE said...

seem some consolidation in ns in 5085-90 range for breakout for 5110
since morning 1030ema in 5day 5min charts is giving res to upmove

navtash said...

@ we have ratified our JNSAR at 5052, we holding the position in.

navtash said...

J.R.Julius said...
Camarilla Key Levels
Nifty Futures
H4 5105
H3 5080
L3 5029
L4 5003
June 15, 2012 10:18 AM

Pl put the BUY or Sell Tgt in above figures ,to make it clear , if somebody wants to follow

Dinesh Rishi said...

J.R.Julius

Samsung champ is cheapest but go for Nokia

NITIN KADAM said...

@J.R.Julius -

Some good Andorid phones .

HTC EXLORER - 8k

HTC WILDFIRE S - 12.5k

Samsung ACE Plus - 14-15k

Sony Xperia Neo V - 17k

Prices In Pune CIty.

shriram said...

hahaha..

Aho ji DR bhai, je baat!

Fun time ... how to explain Albert Einstien's Theory of Relativity to coomon man ??

Ans:
Relativity:
Two hairs in my cup of tea is too much.
Two hairs on my head is too less !!

:-DDDD

Anil said...

@Shriram

sorry to jump in discussion, but my experience in trading says SMA's are better poised for swing trading and also on lower timeframe charts sir's fast rise and fast fall setup is good with SMA's...

And regarding stats, let we monitor on charts from now on...it will be practical and more sensible thing rather than doing backtesting...

navtash said...

J.R.Julius said...
Someone suggest medium budget android.
June 15, 2012 10:29 AM

go for idea hand set manufactured by ZTE , with dual sim and lot of benefits of 3G

STOCK4SURE said...

ns waiting for lower BB to come near 5080 and then may jump taking support of it

shriram said...

@ Anil: It depends on how u use SMAs or for that matter EMAs..

Key is to understand its core feature & tap the potential, thats the trick

Its not the car that wins the race, its the driver, but if had differnt cars suited to different race-tracks (read market modes) wud be ideal na ?

Adaptive MAs are like those dynamically adapting cars ... driver remains same , u & me :-)

Sujatha said...

GM sir and all :)

Prabhat - right time to take "right decision" as mkt @ good condition. think of yourself "now u r with positional view/mid term/shortterm"??? then take ur no. and stay away from 24X7 monitoring market and working out nos. I am with positional view since this week i told earlier "am with mayan"

Anil - mm..example - anybody can try their hand with 5SMA which is the good indication for "short term" but profit booking is depends upon their "own level" whether up or down. For significant midium term signals one can use 20DEMA Vs 55 DEMA check it day nd weekly. Still weekly not yet triggered. For long time am using 89EMA and 200 EMA = now trading below 89 EMA

Subho - AGE DOESN'T MATTER..gain experience and enter.. at your age i saw 2 persons mastered this "profession" :P

DR-ji - u know who's that 2 both from VFM :) i really wonder but bowing to their knowledge

Sanjay Jaiswal said...

Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,

OI Update at 11:00 AM

Thanks & Regards

Sujatha said...

Shriram - whether clay court or grass court /fast track or slow track = all in the hands of the Driver who's dri(trade)ving :D it's better to get first "learner's licence" "then driving" is safe that too with "seat belts" called as TSL :)

Sandip Patel said...

Any body could tell me, how to get NSE 1 min live data ipload in to the AMI using TT.

VIJAY KUMAR said...

hello sir
good morning
how r u
sir doing much better than ever before. after reading ur theory and rules & principles of trading.

shriram said...

hahaha.. sujata amma:

DR bhai wants to use Ferrari car on INDIAN ROADS , then wot will happen ;-)

Seat belt will not prevent head from banging into ceiling ... HAHAHHA... LOL ;-D

@ DR Bhai:
Wid ur yrs of Experience, u have trained urself to use the LAGGING Behaviour of SMA to TRAIL

But, by very definition, u hv not specified which time frame u trail , Hr or Day ?

@ Each T/f (EW subfrac) , the dynamics change ...
So SMA may suit a person who tracks EOD basis & that too will give profits only on SIGNIFICANT SWING away from MEAN (as SMO --> tends to 0 in a pure CYCLIC SINUSOID -read FLAT ABC wave)

There are many nuances to be seen, before passing verdict on SMA over EMA :-)

shriram said...

** read SMO as SMA ..thoda behak gaya :-DDD

VIJAY KUMAR said...

and sir i think ur principles of trading is good for real life too.. such patience and silence. but sir aap bi roj ek achi baat batao kero.
i mean "THOUGHT OF THE DAY"
AND SIR DO U KNOW
ab mera lose nehi hota.

Anil said...

@Shriram

Thanks for inputs...

@Sujatha
i regularly use 5 sma in my trading its a wonderful.let me accept this frankly when i started TA in 2002-03 i liked moving average, but then it get fades away, but after seeing sir's post and emphasis on using MA's and way to use ut, changed my whole way of thinking and reading MA's, kudos to sir for that

@DR

In my opinion TRendlines are the single most powerful weapon in TA. and my life (trades) depends on it..be it horizontal ones or trending ones...

chetas said...

Dear Sujatha,

" I am with positional view since this week i told earlier "am with mayan"

What the mayan calender is saying for this week, My memory is you are short correct?

Sujatha said...

Shriram - Ferrari ki Sawaari??? :) let Tendulkar give his "ferrari to DR-ji" he can drive on the top "without touching the earth" ha ha ha :) :)

Rocks said...

@J.R.Julius

I suggest

Samsung Ace/advance/beam family handsets if you are looking for medium range.
They have the same capability and performance like Galaxy S2..but half or lower the price... Best for normal use

Dinesh Rishi said...

shriram

बिल्ली शेर की मोसी है
उसने शेर को सबकुछ सिखा दिया

पर पेड़ पर चड़ना क्यों नहीं सिखाया ?

can you explain why?

sandeep bhoite said...

@ Master

Look Like it reverse from Mid point Crisis , How should we look at it

VIJAY KUMAR said...

dinesh rishi ji

shayad sher ko seekhna nehi aaya hoga that how to climb on tree varna guru kabi apne student ko half knowledge nehi deta its all depends on students how much he learns

shriram said...

DR bhai ke liye khaas..

http://www.indiatvnews.com/upload/news/entertainmentbollywood/Ferrari_bosses_4354.jpg

K7 said...

Hi Anil,

Could you brief me on 5 sma settings on charts. I use iCharts and 1min time frame. Should i need to use only 5 sma or any other sma to crossover...i have sma1 sma2 sma3 settings, should i use all at a time or only one is enough..

I am happy to discuss in mail separately, if you finds hard to put the comments here, my email id "kesavan100 at gmail dot com"

teejay said...

Nifty trading in tight range of 15 points for 2 hours.. Bulls trying to take control over 5090 & 5110... Bears trying hard to take it below 5070&5050

Dinesh Rishi said...

Anil

I fully agree with you

Rajvada said...

DR ji,
Apne apko bachane ke liye...Sher to Sher hai Akhir....

shriram said...

hahah... aap phir khichayee chalu kar diye DR bhai ;-)

"उसने शेर को सबकुछ सिखा दिया"

This is a premise or is it fact ? If fact, wot is the proof ke billi ne sher ko sikhaya bhi hein ??

Pehle ye clarify karo, baaki sab iske baad ;-D

Prithvi said...

Master,

Above 5097 3rd impulsewave starting and Big 'C' starting ????
Please clear my point.

Prakash said...

इतना shannata क्यों है भाई

Vipul Rastogi said...

Ascending triangle formation in 5min chart.

Vipul Rastogi said...

Expecting breakout of resistance around 5096 soon.

Dinesh Rishi said...

Prithvi

your update plz

Ilango said...

Ilango said...
@ Prabhat ,

You have understood it well.

A Bear would sell closer to 5094 with a SL-5110. Bear would be in the game only with a break below 5083-34 Hr Sma & 5077-Day Pivot.

A bull would have bought at the open and keep 5065 as SL and raise it to 5077 as time goes by, part book @ 5105-5115 zone and allow the rest to trail.
June 15, 2012 10:07 AM

Nifty came down to "5077" and rallying. Bull should raise trailing SL to 5077.

Dinesh Rishi said...

Vipul Rastogi

its a request

plz expect some more :D

Prakash said...

finally brack 5097

teejay said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
STOCK4SURE said...

200ma resisted in 5 min charts

shriram said...

Recalibrating the EW count,

if seen as a ST corrective

a 5048 5096 48
b 5096 5077 -19 -39.6%

If this b has finished @ 5077, we can have c up
c 5077 5125 48 100.0%

Anil said...

@K7

i dont use only 5 sma, but with trendlines, its on hourly +5min charts combined...

i will mail you on weekend, hope you dont mind it...

Prithvi said...

ORB ON UPSIDE

Sorry DR Sir,

Internet problem , so late posted

afzala.com said...

sir
iftheniftyretrace61%ofthefallthatis
5107theuptrend
continues?

Prabhat said...

@Mynac: Is selling pressure coming above 5100? Looking at the OI table, 5100 call has good 60L OI & yest's addition was 10L. Is there a small card board wall placed at 5100? (addition of more OI will that a brick wall) & nifty breaking 5000 will make 5100 a concrete wall.

Sujatha said...

Chetas - ofcourse i am short = 5.5 inches only :D jokes apart - yeah shorting only at high and closing at support level or with my cam/sma level. my SL IS On EOD basis 5154 CAM H3 of weekly. Mayan calender is "my personal diary" valid upto this year. (i don't want 2 pass my confusion theory 2 others) becoz i know when to quit that also :P that time i can't post if i am not @ net.

chetas said...

@ Sujatha

Can you send some links relating to Mayan calender relevant for markets

Prabhat said...

@Mynac: This was the exact same thing happening at 5230-5280 when nifty was on its way to 5630 during Feb 2012. It was overbought + resisted for some time. Later the rocket landed nifty into stratosphere (5600 range).

Looks like mkts have factored in weak IIP data + rising inflation too anticipating RBI rate cut.

K7 said...

Thanks Anil, i shall await for your mail...K7

CDG said...

@Ilango,

Isn't the zone between DHEMA(5106) and DLEMA(5044) should be considered as trading zone. if this is correct then one should SHORT above 5100 and LONG only around 5050

anmpatel said...

@mynac
hourly indicator turned up, what about hourly KST? i am on mobile. please tell. thanks.

Dinesh Rishi said...

cooldent

I got 8 hrs standby supply

Shradha Saburi said...

@prabhat
I 100% agree with you Prabhat.
so I said
wohi hoga jo manjure market hoga.
let us see both the way trading market ahead.
we will change heads
regards!

shriram said...

@ 12noon: Hlf hr candle closing > 5091

Intra-day Bull Flag.

EW , wave C in play on sub-minuette...

Hint that Longs may have higher probability seeking 5125-5144

Amol Sharma said...

will nifty cross 200 MA or will go down to fill the todays gap ??

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