Monday, June 4, 2012

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Reader: Let me know about 34EMA on 5 mnt chart whether it is ema of last 34 candles or single 34mnt candle close.why fibo no.34 is given preference.
Ans: 34 Ema is 34 period ema of the relevant time frame. If you view a 5-min chart, it is 34 ema of last 34 5-min bars and if you view a "day chart", then it would be 34 day ema.
Why 34 ema?
It is a fibonacci number and it has been found to produce "conservative signals for buys and sells with lesser whipsaws". Lesser the whipsaw, later the signal would be. Hence, choosing the correct number is individual's choice based on their trade size & temperamennt.
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Look at the Hour chart to see "how Nifty bounced upto 34 Hr Ema(4949) on the settlement day" and continued its fall.
We consider the current move as the "iiird" wave of the (5)th wave. The (1)st & (5)th wave equality gives the target of 4728. Fall beyond it would throw up few possibilities such as (5)th being 1.618 times or other fibo relationships or 5630 being the 2nd wave/ "b" wave & a 3rd wave/"c" wave in progress and so on. These are theoretical debate. To make money, know the direction of your chosen T/F (use TT, TA, EW or any other method) and stay in that direction alone. Do not have any "Conflict" in this most basic concept to trading/ investing.
  • Know your Time frame(T/F)..5 min/ 30 min/ Hour/ Day/ Week/ Month.
  • Know the trend of that particular T/F.
  • Trade/ invest in the direction(Trend) of that T/F.
Yes...Sure, you'll Get Rich Slowly and Quietly.


57 comments:

Sanjay said...

Namaste Ilango Sir & Blogmates,

Option Table is poised for a lower range for the series, maybe 4500-5000 as of now...; Option Analysis for 01-06-2012

Yearly, Weekly & Monthly Profile Charts and Values

Dedicated Site for Option Open Interest

Duplicated at Wordpress Site

Thanks & Regards,

Sanjay Kr Jaiswal

Prabhat said...

GM Master & to all friends.

@Sanjay sir: Please correct me if I am wrong. As per OI analysis, support or resistances are measured depending on the OI for that contract.
If we see the OI table in your blog, we can see that OI for calls is very less & is distributed as opposed to the same for puts where the huge accumulation is seen only for 4800 & 4500 puts. So once 4800 breaks, then the next support comes at 4500 where both 4700 & 4600 will not provide any support. Also if you see who are the players who make money in options (95% of them make loss while the rest 5% of them make profit what the 95% have lost)are the option writers as compared to the buyers. So much writing is seen for puts as compared to calls. In that case does it not sound that the bulls are trapping the bears here but writing all the puts & gain by its decay?

The other events which might support this are:
1. 17th is Greece elections & the Euro nations will not let go of Greece so easily & they might release another package. Else this will lead to global catastrophe.
2. 18th is RBI meet.

venkatapathy l said...

Namaste Ilango Sir and fellow bloggers.

LV

Prabakar said...

Namaste Ilango Sir and JN Family

Nilesh said...

illangoji
as u say 4735 was support and break of 4?51 fibo 80 % than what your advise what will work out

Prabhat said...

@Sanjay Sir: One more observation. 4200 PE OI increased by 18+ lac. This looks scary since this cannot be writers who wanted to gain advantage since Rs 10 will not fetch them anything. so are they smart buyers?

San said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and Friends

BANK NIFTY Weekly chart Analysis: CLICK HERE

Unknown said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir & all Blogmates,

Rgds
Saravanan

Nilesh Patil said...

Good Morning Master & Friends

Suresh Nifty said...

Namaste Ilango Sir ,Very Good Explanation of EMA,,,& 34 number,,,,, "Every thing has a reason"

mynac said...

Dear Prabhat,
Now a days when the picture is too shaky,how much importance has this O.I.data is definitely questionable...Yesterday read Dear AAR VEE's post & got the following link there. After reading the same,probably you would get more appropriate answer for your query..
http://business-standard.com/india/news/fiis-bet-heavily-in-indian-marketin-singapore/475428/

Manish said...

Goodmorning master and all JN friends

Wish you a Great Learning and Earning session today.

Good Luck !!!

Nifty oversold in 5 min and hourly T/F so look for teddy bull opportunity which may become big bull if feeded properly by short covering.

Unknown said...

Good Morning All



Closing below 4800 will lead more falls

SANPOT said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and thank you for the premarket advice.

dayakar said...

Pranams Gurudev.

Just Huge Consistent Profits said...

Good Morning Illango sir and friends.

Happy trading day to all.

Prabhat said...

@Mynac: This is a very serious issue by FII which are:
1. Index stock will be subject to more manipulation rather than technicals/fundamentals due to corresponding positions taken in derivatives in SGX.
2. This will lead to index stocks outperforming/underperforming as opposed to non-index stocks which are fundamentally good. This increases the gap & hence the investment in them.
3. India will lose out on tax since FIIs will move to SGX index & singapore is known to be a tax haven.
4. If they invested directly in Indian derivatives, they would be governed by SEBI & hence manipulations will be controlled. But investing in SGX will put them out of scope of SEBI.
5. Total turnover in Indian mts will reduce.

This is so bad. I feel India should rethink of the tax treaty they signed with Singapore.

mynac said...

Dear Prabhat,
:) Already our politicians have spoiled image and now they have decided to spoil market too...Let us see... hope for the best that margin calls should not trigger in this week..

Shradha Saburi said...

Good Morning Sir, all blogmates
as per predictions from 4880 ,80 points achieved

Dinesh Rishi said...

Good Morning Master and copy to All

Shradha Saburi said...

todays quote
Traders make money not by predicting the market correctly, but by trading the market correctly.
JAI JNSAR

Brad said...

Hi Ilango,

At what point should one stop expecting C wave and assume C ended at 5630?

Best regards,
Brad

Parminder said...

Master ilango,
Good morning and thanks for the lesson given today.Regards
☺☺☺☺☺

Hitendra said...

DR sir - still long on BN?

Unknown said...

@ Hitendra

Long on bank nifty ?

Dinesh Rishi said...

Hitendra

Amending thanks :D

Hitendra said...

@Amol - I was , now booking the loss. So just wanted to check with DR sir if there was a reason to be still long.

Shradha Saburi said...

one report
The dollar declined against the euro and other major currencies in a volatile Friday session as much weaker-than-expected growth in U.S. nonfarm payrolls raised the chance that the Federal Reserve will take action.
But we have all JNSAR ( hour, day ,week, month)
are lineed up in descending order.
hour TA is trending
Importance of NOW

J.R.Julius said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
J.R.Julius said...

Camarilla Key Levels - Nifty Spot
H4 4893[BUY]
H3 4867[SELL]
L3 4816[BUY]
L4 4790[SELL]

Nitin Kadam said...

Weekly View:-

Buy Territory: - Above 4948.
Sell Territory: - Below 4904.

Overall view for today:-

Bears took the control on Friday by giving closing below 4860. Channel support 4800-4815 broken in the gap down opening session, closing below the same will bring nifty down towards 4750-4612.

4750-4612:- Strong support area.

4834-4875:- Strong resistance. (Levels for Sell On Rise.)

Changing your sentiments as per the trend from bulls to bears or vice versa is hardest thing, but the most required for successful TRADING. TRADING game is always against human nature,

Winning our own emotions makes our way to success easier.

Current Trend: - DOWN.

Possible Movements:-

Seems to be a dull day after 50. Points gap down, Will try to cover gap or fall towards 4750.

1. 4832 < = > 4789< = >4810< = > 4834< = >4874< = >4904

2. 4932 < = > 4789 < = >4810 < = > 4750 < = > 4680

Two best rules for successful trading:-

1. Initiate position in the direction of trend near support & resistances.

2. Max stop loss - 30 points.

Happy disciplined trading to all.

Have a nice day!

Randhir said...

Dear Sir,

On chart at 4988 its marked as 1 and at 5020 its marked as 4, since wave 4 breaches wave 1 is the entire wave considered as diagonal or some other wave count on higher degree is playing. Else I may be completely wrong in my interpretation. Request you to please clear me understanding.

Thanks in advance.

Thanks

Ilango said...

@ Brad,

In a flat correction, the "b" wave could exceed 80% or even 100%.

However, our preferred view holds the current fall as (5)th wave and it should end in a day or two.

If it does so, then the subsequent rally would be observed for qualities of a reversal such as "faster retracement, impulsive waves, etc".

Bala C said...

SGX launching Options on NSE NIfty in Q3 2012, according to a recent news release.

NEVER GIVE UP said...

good morning sir and all friends.

Jagan said...

Namaste Ilango Sir and all.

Prabhat said...

@Bala: If that is to be true, then looks like I will have to take sanyas from stock mkt.

Ilango said...

@ Randhir,

Thanks for reminding.
It was sorted out few days ago but the error creeped in while updating the chart this week end.

The (4) should be changed to "4" and the changes will be reflected at 10.00AM post.

Just Huge Consistent Profits said...

@ J.R.Julius

If we sell @4790, What will be the stoploss sir ?

Akash Patel said...

4810! Just Huge Consistent Profits.

Sujatha said...

GM sir and all :)

Prabhat - Too much of analysis "injurious to your health and wealth" :D :) either just follow the "nos" or "only OI" if u can.. no need to tell mynac will adjust swiftly. :) your "no" will tell you all "damn" thing whether it's coming and going. am not discouraging you in OI..bad experience speaking :) SGX volume u can count with ur figures i feel it's mostly virus infected one comparing to US is waste. donno howmany feel comfortable comparing with SGX. May be Bala is good :D he always watch and post. the more u "analyse" the more u "confuse" for your "more confusion" will forward one mail if u want :D :)

shabsaif said...

Good Morning.............

Sujatha said...

Prabhat - mail sent.. read after MKT HOURS

shivanGupta said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Prabhat said...

thanks Sujatha Ma'm.

shivanGupta said...

Sir,

please make your comment box(florescent green) color a bit light as it is hurting eyes.

Dinesh Rishi said...

Sis have u seen your lead indicator (Red Metal)

shiva said...

good morning,seniors..

Sujatha said...

DR-ji - no not at all "once satheesh" has given hint and i tried but after ur post i stopped anything comparing.. only 3 indexes :) as usual the line of BN is ......good support so......if may month low breakes.... then...........will come hehe...this not the time to post my "blah blah nos" :D

HARISH TAHKKAR said...

Always follow Sir's excellent guidelines.
"To make money, know the direction of your chosen T/F"

http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/WORLDINDEX.htm

Bala C said...

Oops, for all my trading I watch only NSE Data.

I have no choice to watch SGX data as I trade in SGX not in NSE.

I mentioned in the past too, SGX volume is too much manipulated by the deep pocket institutions. For more reliable data, it is sufficient to use NSE data. Definetely, SGX data is not usable to trade, atleast for me :)

J.R.Julius said...

@Mr.Just Huge Consistent Profits,
As per OUR BLOG experiments - we use 20pts SL
from entry. You can use Day High/Chart Support
or Resistance or next CAM levels or anything u
feel comfortable.

Just Huge Consistent Profits said...

@anmpatel Thank you

Dinesh Rishi said...

Sis

Friday high was 420

todays low is 398

@ mouth watering level :D

Akash Patel said...

can anybody help how to get banknifty live data in excel worksheet. thanks.

Ilango said...

New Post Done.

Just Huge Consistent Profits said...

@ Mr.J.R.Julius Sir,

Thank you so much.

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