Nifty PreMarket View

The most obvious looking deep fall, at times, could elude with a complex irregular "ii" wave within the 3rd wave as long as such a bounce is limited to 5430-50.
Till a change in trend is not confirmed, stay with your positions part booking as suggested.

Nifty has done a "Pause Day"..adjusting to the oversold short term.

The above chart shows two ideal scenarios. It could vary a bit in real markets. If moves past 5460, the whole corrective set up changes.

< 5370 - 5410> would be the early indications of Bear/ Bull openings. Remember only closing prices alter the technical set ups. Aggressive trader would follow the Hour Closes with due considerations to Day/ week TA and conservative trader should follow Day Closes with more weightage to Week/ Month TA.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

FIRE's ANALYSIS: This Ratio Analysis is totally based on two EW counts of Master. The common thing for both the counts are -

A = 6338 – 5178 = 1160 Points

B = 5944 – 5178 = 766 Points

So, "C" can be either

1160*61.8% = 717 Points (Ends at 5944 – 717 = 5227)

1160*100% = 1160 Points (Ends at 5944 - 1160 = 4784)

Now, C always subdivides in 5 waves, never in 3. So let’s look at the subdivisions. Master has charted three possibilities, but I will discuss only two here as I am absolutely not fit for discussing any X wave.

So let’s start from the less bleak picture for the bulls, the first count -

1.C = 5944 – 5444 = 500 points

2.C = 5605 – 5444 = 161 points

So the possible 3.C –

(For 1.C) -

100% = 500 points (5605 – 500 = 5105)

161.8% = 809 points (5605 – 809 = 4796)

200% = 1000 points (5605 – 1000 = 4605)

261.8% = 1309 points (5605 – 1309 = 4296)

For (2.C) –

261.8% = 421 points (5605 – 421 = 5184)

Now if we take further subdivisions –

(1).3.C = 5605 – 5401 = 204 points

(2).3.C = 5518 – 5401 = 117 points

So, (3).3.C = 100% = 204 points (5518 – 204 = 5314)

161.8% = 330 points (5518 – 330 = 5188)

200% = 408 points (5518 – 408 = 5110)

261.8% = 534 points (5518 – 534 = 4984)

And 261.8% of (2).3.C = 306 points (5518 – 306 = 5212)

Therefore, we get clusters of 5188-5227, 5105-5110 and 4784-4796. We should also keep in mind 5314, which fits with the Weekly support band of 5300-5320 as specified by Master.

Now second scenario –

This is more terrible for the bulls, as it implies that 1.C is going on and 3.C is lurking in the next few months. Now I leave it to anyone’s imagination what can be the size of the 3^rd, if the 1^st is of this size! (Don’t even think about the 5^th :P)

According to this count –

(1).1.C = 5944 – 5735 = 209 points

(2).1.C = 5913 – 5735 = 178 points

(3).1.C = 5913 – 5444 = 469 points

(4).1.C = 5605 – 5444 = 161 points

So, (5).1.C can be

100% of (1) = 209 points (5605 – 209 = 5396 ACHIEVED)

61.8% of (1) to (3) = 61.8% of (5944 – 5444) = 309 points (5605 – 309 = 5296)

127% of (4) = 204 points (5605 – 204) = 5401 ACHIEVED)

161.8% of (4) = 261 points (5605 – 261 = 5344)

261.8% of (2) = 466 points (5605 – 466 = 5139)

423.6% of (2) = 754 points (5605 – 754 = 4851)

Now this count looks interesting as Nifty abided by these ratios very nicely so far. 5401 was the place from where the last bounce came. Also, 5296 fits very well with the Weekly support of 5300 as specified by Master. Kumarji also will appreciate the importance of 5344 level. So, at 5300 Nifty will meet all the major Ratio requirements for this second count.

Inference – We should keep a close watch on 5300-5320 area in the extreme short-term as its importance is reinforced by these numbers. But medium term bears should be a happy lot anyway! :D

In the meanwhile we would get more information from the market itself as it progresses.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -Thank You, FIRE. - -- - - - - - - - -

I would prefer if the discussions are less emotional...less subjective and focussed on the markets alone. Try to stay focussed with your trading plan and all the rest will damage your wealth. Distractions come in all guises. If you don't believe in yourself, this is not the place for you. My efforts are always to make you independent.. empower you. And I am fully aware of the intrusions in my job in a public platform such as this blog. Let us say..this classroom is conducted in the centre of a busy market place and only the "attentive" ones would benefit from it and the rest have a gala time but not reach their goals.

Nifty breaking recent lows amidst worsening week/month TA & rising VIX.