Nifty completes a 5 & reverses with a 2-day swing reversal

Channel resisted, now to seek supports @ 30d,dma(4300) or 20 dma(4280)..
Nifty is below all "High Emas" indicating loss of upward momentum..Now to seek supports at the "Low emas".. Only a close above the "high ema" will bring back the momentum. Until then sell above these "High emas" @ 4456-4461.

Just a thought..If it does what the left shoulder has done, it can go to 3800..!!! But I will not project that far...Let me see how 4280-4320 area holds in the coming days.. More weakness only below 4380.

Watch this Hourly macd set up...While price was getting higher since opening, macd kept below the trigger line(Red) and that is an advance warning of stretched technicals and an impending reversal.. It was very swift and kept everyone busy...

A 5-wave structure ended @ today's high. Correction is on by breaking the channel at 12.30 PM and it was swift..Never miss the reversal points @ 5th..as well as "abc". If trades above 5 ema(4380), it can do an intra rally towards 4445 or higher.

Nifty's moves ahead..

Preferred:Let us assume that "a first break" of the channel be treated as completion of 4th wave and a "5th" wave to unfold today to take Nifty higher. Remember, also, that once the 5th wave completes (4600 or higher), we will head lower towards yesterday's lows in an "abc" correction.

Alternatively, Nifty can continue its pause for one more day by trading in the same zone and then head higher.

"SS"'s Internals suggests continued strength.


At 9.50AM:The Parallel channel(Pink) resistance comes @ 4550.

Nifty pauses to gather strength..

A mild pause..Rising 5 DMA is the likely support for tomorrow.
10.00AM close below "Hourly High Ema" set the "Correction mode" for the day. A mild one. Watch the support levels rising.


Daily trend is firm with supports rising by the day.
macd sets in a correction. Blue(21hr @ 4425) & Red(35 hour @ 4390) may offer supports.

We have two possibilities: "abc" structure will have corrections upto 4390-4410 or lower dn to 4350 before moving higher. "5" wave structure goes higher immediately upto 4550-4600 area before having some corrections.

Nifty's moves ahead

If we look for a=c, then the target comes at 4589. There are resistances in the zone of 4525 - 4595. A correction is due which can take a maximum down to 4350..or 4410.
Positional can continue to hold with a SL below 4340.

As discussed earlier, US $ Index heading down for the 5th wave while equity markets are moving up for the 5th or "C" up as a terminal in this uptrend.

Nifty continues its climb with improving TA..

Slow macd into +ve area. "Budget day High of 4480" crossed in shorter time. Look for resistances @ 4625-4695 area..
The final "weekly High ema" also scaled today.. Any corrections may be bought into. For positional, 4350 may be a SL on close basis.

Macd..smooth transition into +ve area.

No weakness is visible. many stocks are undergoing corrections for the past 3-4 days as a 2nd wave or "b" wave..


A smooth follow up for the break out..Any pull backs to be bought into..

SS, Manoj, Yoda, Kpl...Thank you.

As I look back at my one year of blogging, I remember with heart full of gratitude the instrumental hands that shaped it up ,motivated and encouraged it with kind & critical inputs.


Sunil Saranjame of The Indian Market Monitor,

Manoj of Tryin2trade,

Yoda of Psychic Muse,

Kpl of VFMdirect.com

and friends like Piazzi, Lee(found bliss in his family lately) , abhay, fellow boarders at VFM Forum, so many of my readers who have interacted with their comments and the silent readers contributed to a spirited application to the market study in a consistent manner. You made me stretch my limits and you made me feel very special....

Thank you..Thank you...Thank you..

My critics...Shivaprasad and Jay are with me in this journey throughout and their inputs have enriched it further. Thank you.

Nifty's uptrend gathers momentum inspite of short term "OB".

Weekly is turning up. A move past 4400 & staying above it will confirm the trend change in "Weekly scale". Staying below 4400 can make the short term bears active.
Strength in at every step except for a brief correction at 3.00PM.


Break out in "Close" chart and a possible entry into +ve area by the "slow macd" will add strength.
Ahh..A channel break with a neat bull candle with the fast macd moving into +ve.


Channel break out. Is it a "d' leg. A gap up above 4400 will negate it. A gap dn or lower prices will keep it in contention.
You can spot the -ve div. But price hasn't weakened yet.

Managed to move out of the channel. Now to defend it by holding above 4335-4350 for further upsides. Short term "OB" & -ve div..persists.


Important Note: Writing about the markets is quite easy. I am detached from it. However, the moment you take a position, emotions cloud your judgement and ego too interferes. What should be done..?
Always have a method..your choice and stick to it inspite of a few failures. Be honest to your self.
Once you have taken a position, the best way to manage is to answer a "imaginary friend's"(Calvin & Hobbs) market's question.."What is the market doing & likely to do..??. Your responsible and honest answer to that question will reveal the truth and strategy to manage your positions. Cut your losses when it is manageable. That way, you stay on to win another battle.

Have a great weekend.