Nifty sold off at the last hour with near ranges being 2800 - 2880.

Nifty's counter trend rally continues with minor intra day corrections.
With US Mkts closed for two days, the trading range is expected to be 2780/2800 to 2860/2880 unless US futures become active to "Obama's speech".

The action, thus far, resembles a counter rally to the fall from 3147 to 2701.

Overbought hourly started to correct at the last hour and might find supports at 2820/2800/2780. Trade light.

A very good article in ET about Smart Money, posted in VFM by CDMoorthy worth a read and it is an improved version of the Volatality index.
Presently the 20DMA(2928) is above the 50 DMA(2872) but it has turned down and falling towards the 50 DMA. 3,077.50, 3039.3, 2968.65, 2916.85 & 2857.25 - these are the closing levels to look for in the coming 5 days.If closes above these levels, 20 DMA may turn up, giving bullish momentum. Mon-Wed levels will not come as US mkts are closed for 2 days, so no decisive action till wed unless US futures gets active.

So watch out for Thursday closing above 2917 and Fridays closing above 2858.

Strategy:- Keeping the weekly sell signal in place, aggressive traders may short around 2880 to 2920 area with a SL of 2950. Also buy 2800 PE & 2700 PE when Nifty trades at 2850 & above.
As of now, we are trading at the lower band of the Jan. series..2701 - 3147 and just about done a 38% retracement(2870).Then there is the 50% retracement at 2924. So build a short positions with some hedging which could be squared off once a decisive move below a two day low happens (whenever that may be).

We should also watch US mkts for any sign of decisiveness as S&P500 also bouncing after a steep fall like Nifty.

Rebuilding the House..

When you are down with your problems, stuck in a mess, brooding over your misery, you meet a person who pours out all his sufferings to you and you listen to him patiently. You understand his mental agony and you find yourself helping that person in someway to overcome his problems. You are so involved in solving his problems, for a moment you have forgotten all yours and in that detached state of mind , you find a way out of yours. It has been put forth in a more eloquent way by one of my favourite writers.

Excerpts from "Like the flowing river" by Paulo Coelho.(One of my favourites)


An acquaintance of mine ended up in serious financial difficulty because he could never manage to bring together dream and reality. Worse, he dragged others down with him, harming people he had no wish to harm.
Unable to repay the debts he had accumulated, he even considered suicide. Then one afternoon, as he was walking down a street, he saw a house in ruins. "That building is me," he thought, and at that precise moment, he felt an immense desire to rebuild that house.
He found out who the owner was and offered to carry out the necessary work; the owner agreed, although he couldn't understand what my friend stood to gain. Together they managed to get hold of roof tiles, wood and cement. My friend put his whole heart into the work, though without knowing why or for whom. But as the renovation work progressed, he felt his personal life improving.
By the end of the year, the house was ready. And all his personal problems had been resolved.

Nifty rallies from oversold levels, approaching multiple resistances ahead.

Nifty confirmed the reversal for the fall from 3147 to 2701. If it is a corrective rally, a retracement of 38% will be at 2870 and a 50% will be at 2924.The critical 2780 which held in intraday corrections is a level to be protected by Bulls.
If it is another leg of a complex rally, it may go past the previous high. Presently, we will watch the immediate resistance levels and the likely support points & how well they resist & hold.
Weekly trend is still down & only a weekly close above 2900 will change it.
However, the daily trend has turned up after the hourly turned up this morning at 10.00 AM.
US mkts being closed on Monday, our mkts should rally further into Monday.

Nifty's big fall of last week is being corrected by a small range of 2700/2750-2800/2850.

Nifty is trading in a range of 2700/2750 to 2800/2850 for the last 4 days after last week's big fall.
Positive divergences persisting in hourly charts. Till the hour closes above 2750, trade these ranges.
There is an immediate resistance at 2770-2780 area, above which the gap of today at 2992 -2811.There is supports at 2715-2735 area.
Break of 2700 will lead to 2650 & then to 2600.So Keep 2700 as SL for fresh longs.
If there is a positive cue, the likely trading range may be 2735 to 2785/2815/2825/2850..

Nifty took the weekly support 2780 and rallied to close above 5 DMA.

The persistent positive divergences of the last two days have resulted in a smart rally today. And Nifty took the weekly support levels of 2770-2780 area during intraday corrections and rallied to close at the highest point and also closed above the 5 DMA.
If Nifty holds the 2780-2800 levels, it may attempt the next resistances 2860(Often talked about) and 2910(30 DMA) & 2950 (25DMA).There is a cluster of averages above 2880(50, 20, 25,30) and likely supports at 2785-2820(3DMA & 5 DMA).
After the steep fall from 3147 to 2721, this rally can take the Nifty to 2882(38%); 2934(50%). However, any rally past 2950 will likely reverse this downtrend.
Till then, expect a tug of war at 2780 - 2880/2950 area before a decisive move takes place.

A great festival to bring cheers for the battered Bulls..!!

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Wishing everyone a happy Makara Sankranthi..Pongal....Lohri.
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The Oversold Nifty may finally give a bounce today..Please note, presently, it is viewed as a bounce only.
A likely trading range(Spot) 2740 to 2825/2850.

Nifty has been giving a hundred points intra moves regularly. Find one extreme, you will find the other extreme & get 100 points.

Nifty continues to trade down with intra bounces, has res..@ 2825-2875.

As per today's moves, Nifty may have completed the running correction and commenced the down moves. Looking at UK & Hangseng moves today, bigger falls are very near.
An alternative EW count is posted on the daily chart keeping the downtrend untouched.This means that Nifty can make a bottom in a day or two and reverse up and the "e" wave up may not reach beyond 3050( a failure).
Keep selling on sharp intra upmoves as they are generally fake ones when Nifty is trading below short term averages. Be prepared for such wild swings..