Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Nifty Premarket View
Nifty pulled back upto the rising channel on Monday but failed to move back into it suggesting continuation of downtrend.
In the very short term, two scenarios at work:
Bearish: Pull back completed at 5098 and the next downtrend started which might pause @ 4895-4935, retrace upto 5000-5020 and commence the downmove again.
Bullish:Nifty may consolidate in 4950 to 5050/5070 for two days and then move higher towards 5160-5200.
Any fall beyond 61.8% retracement @ 4896 will weaken the possibility of bullishness.
My availability will be limited as my assistant has taken ill and the work load just got trebled..!!
In the very short term, two scenarios at work:
Bearish: Pull back completed at 5098 and the next downtrend started which might pause @ 4895-4935, retrace upto 5000-5020 and commence the downmove again.
Bullish:Nifty may consolidate in 4950 to 5050/5070 for two days and then move higher towards 5160-5200.
Any fall beyond 61.8% retracement @ 4896 will weaken the possibility of bullishness.
My availability will be limited as my assistant has taken ill and the work load just got trebled..!!
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Nifty PreMarket View.
A correction is on - Use ORB for confirmation only.
Many are asking whether a mechanical system can be made out of the "Tech. table" ?? - May be. I never tried it. I use the tech table as a reference point only...a confirmatory tool as I do with indicators and others. I have the time to study the market in its complexity and try to feel its pulse.
But for those who can not afford so much time, there are "Swing system" based on "n" period of high/ low breach play (Eg: 5 day swing, 10 day swing, 20 day swimg)or a Follow the macd or a tech.table based "Long on a close above 5-ema (Some swear by 3/7 ema) and so on.
What ever you choose, back test for a period of 2 years spending some time on that research with long trades initiated, whipsawed, etc and the returns and combine the same with some "Profit taking methods". Only when you are convinced, should you put them to trade/ invest.
Why do I have both "Buy" & "Sell" suggestions - because Nifty is at another inflection point. There is a clear possibility of moving higher post this correction. Monthly charts of many stocks too give such an indication.
A correction is on and it may resume the downtrend for one more new low.
In sum, you sell first and then buy - Ohhhhh- that is trading..you got it.
Many are asking whether a mechanical system can be made out of the "Tech. table" ?? - May be. I never tried it. I use the tech table as a reference point only...a confirmatory tool as I do with indicators and others. I have the time to study the market in its complexity and try to feel its pulse.
But for those who can not afford so much time, there are "Swing system" based on "n" period of high/ low breach play (Eg: 5 day swing, 10 day swing, 20 day swimg)or a Follow the macd or a tech.table based "Long on a close above 5-ema (Some swear by 3/7 ema) and so on.
What ever you choose, back test for a period of 2 years spending some time on that research with long trades initiated, whipsawed, etc and the returns and combine the same with some "Profit taking methods". Only when you are convinced, should you put them to trade/ invest.
Why do I have both "Buy" & "Sell" suggestions - because Nifty is at another inflection point. There is a clear possibility of moving higher post this correction. Monthly charts of many stocks too give such an indication.
A correction is on and it may resume the downtrend for one more new low.
In sum, you sell first and then buy - Ohhhhh- that is trading..you got it.
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