Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Nifty does away with corrections swiftly and asserts its trend.

Though VIX gave bearish possibility, market used that opportunity to make new high giving more than 200 points from the low.
There was no selling opportunity...ORB gave a buy call at 10.15PM and market never faltered there on. At 12.00 Noon, the hourly also confirmed a buy.

I failed to highlight the "buying opportunity" in Nifty as long as its trend is up.
Real and confident selling opportunity will arise after some -ve div, closing below 5 DMA, breaking of channel, etc.

Waves will get extended with myriad possibilities but the channel is intact.
Nifty may stop at 3370 and spends a couple of days correcting towards 3200-3175 or marches on to go past 200 DMA and consolidates above that.

This will be the 5th week of closing positive.





Nifty after a "5" completion & VIX breaking out gives short term bearishness

VIX-Fear Index breaks out confirming a bearish scenario after Nifty completes a "5" wave up. 3060/3150 to 3285 may be a trading range initially. Trade with caution as the Weekly uptrend is still intact. Stocks may behave as per their individual TA conditions.


Friday, April 3, 2009

A warrior of Light

A warrior of Light is not the one who makes war but the one who is brave enough to do what is right in fairness and compassion, and to remain calm and strong, regardless of the storm, so that peace can survive, and so that rainbows may form.


The Earth's energy needs to be renewed. New ideas need Space. Body and Soul need new challenges. The future has become the present, and every dream - except those dreams that involved preconceived ideas will have a chance to be heard. Anything of importance will remain. Anything useless will disappear.

From now on and for the next few hundred years - the Universe is going to help Warriors of Light and hinder the prejudiced
The warrior of light is a believer. Because she believes in miracles, miracles begin to happen. Because she is sure that her thoughts can change her life, her life begins to change. Because she is certain that she will find love, love appears. Now and then she gets disappointed. Sometimes she gets hurt. But the warrior of light knows that it is worth it. For every defeat, she has two victories in her favor. All believers know this.

A warrior of light know the importance of intuition. A Warrior knows that intuition is God's language and she continues to listen to the wind and talking to the stars. A warrior knows that truth is relative and that Perception is a miracle that demonstrates our power to create the outside reality, and that everyone lives a different dream. It is not the warriors responsibility to judge the dreams of others. In order to have faith in her path, she does not need to prove that someone else's path is wrong. A warrior does not believe in wrong, or right, better or worse. Thoughts as equal, inferior, and superior are not there in the one who is not moved by such measurements.

A Warrior has learned it is best to follow the light. She has behaved treacherously, she has lied, she has strayed from the path, she has courted darkness and everything was fine, as if nothing happened. Then an abyss suddenly opens up. One can take a thousands steps in safety, but a single step too many can put an end to everything. The warrior stops before she destroys herself. She looks up at the sky and a voice says, “My dear, everyone makes mistakes. You are forgiven, but I cannot force that forgiveness on you. It is your choice”. The Warrior accepts that forgiveness.

Every Warrior of the Light has felt afraid of going into battle. Every Warrior of the Light has, at some point in the past, lied or betrayed someone. Every Warrior of the Light has trodden a path that was not his. Every Warrior has suffered for the most trivial of reasons. Every Warrior of the Light has, at least once, believed she was not a Warrior of the Light. Every Warrior of the Light has, at some point, failed in his spiritual duties. Every Warrior of the Light has said "yes" when she wanted to say "no". Every Warrior of the Light has hurt someone she loved.

That is why she is a Warrior of the Light, because she has been through all this and yet has never lost hope of becoming better than she is.
(words from Paulo Coelho and Don Miguel Ruiz)

There are lots of things a warrior can do at a certain time which she could not do years before. Those things themselves did not change; what changed was her idea of herself. A warrior doesn’t need personal history. One day, she finds it is no longer necessary for her, and she drops it.

Sometimes it is hard to assume the mood of a warrior, but it is of no use to complain and feel justified in doing so, believing that someone is doing something to us. Nobody is doing anything to anybody, much less to a warrior. A warrior doesn’t know remorse for anything she has done, because to isolate one’s acts as being weak, mean or ruthless is to place an unwarranted importance on the self. The trick is what one emphasizes. We either make ourselves miserable, or we make ourselves strong. The amount of work is the same.

(words from Carlos Castaneda -The Wheel Of Time and A Separate Reality)

The warrior unwittingly takes that last false step and falls into the abyss, and she finds herself surrounded in dark waters of despair, her aim had been to fight the good fight, and she never imagined this would happen to her, but it did. She makes contact with her master.
and says," I have fallen, these waters are so deep and dark. I am lost..
"Remember one thing" says his master” we do not drown simply by falling in into darkness, you only drown if you stay beneath the surface. So the warrior uses all his strength to swim up to the surface..... out of the darkness and back to the light.....

(Paulo Coelho, Warrior of Light)

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Nifty manages to stay above 2962 avoiding a 5-Day swing reversal....

Sensex has given a 2 day swing reversal up today, though Nifty missed it by a point. A decisive day tomorrow for the continuation of the uptrend or else more corrections....
Nifty took support at the 10 DMA and closed above the 5-DMA. Either break past the 3123 & head higher or consolidate for more time..20 day Avg has moved above the 50-DMA(Not shown in the chart-refer Pivot table)


Tomorrows Pivot comes at 3032 and so is the channel support. Nifty closing above 3056 gives a positive momentum, needs to be follow it up with firm trend tomorrow.
Hourly macd has given a buy signal just above the "0" mark. Now for a follow up moves..
Has the larger B correction ended..?? Ideally it should consolidate by trading 2965 to 3125 for more time..
5-Minute shows a break of the channel & getting back into the channel..Is it an advance break down. TA is strong in all time frames. Break of 3030 at the opening hour & higher levels subsequently should warrant unwinding..
This is a bullish short term count with in the bullish scenario., provided 3000 level holds.
This is a bearish short term count within the bullish scenario where in selling may emerge around 3095-3125 area and a fall to continue towards 3000 or lower to complete the consolidation....may stretch into next week.

Nifty's EW

Correctives are always difficult to anticipate as possibilities are many. Two distinct possibilities are listed below.
More time Nifty takes to do a correction upto 2900-2860 will open up the upsides or even a shallow correction and clearing the highs(???).
If swift fall is witnessed because of external influence, new lows may be possible. But the TA indications as of now do not point to such a possibility. Only a weekly "turning down" will open up that possibility.
Till then treat these moves as correction to the rise of 2539 to 3123 which should last till this Thursday and Monday might do a reversal. Follow the prices only.

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....