Nifty's intra rallies continues..

As the market seeks lower levels, short intra rallies continues...and closed above 3500.

Wishing everyone a happy Dassera.

NIFTY breaks 3500...

All hourly & 5.Minute positive divergences vanished in a swift fall..Hold shorts if you have any..Close to 3000 levels or below expected.. Hourly that attempted a reversal yesterday in the last hour gave in to the larger daily & weekly downtrend. Now 3500 becomes a major resistance point during any rallies. With intermittent choppy rallies we should head to 3000 levels.

Though we have been in down trend since 6357 top with intermediate rallies and impulsive downmoves, for a day trader, there are only intra bounces to trade or in a flat opening a shorting opportunity and if any short term negative divergences, then there is a short positional trades.

I plan to just post the charts without much commentary unless absolutely warranted. The Tech. Table and charts are easy to read and I feel the commentary only kills your own perception of the market.

Nifty's limited intra rallies..

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.U.S.Markets:-U.S markets down 5 % and closed at its lows.
2.Asian markets :- Down 4 % at their lows of the day
3. Nifty is expected to trade:- With SGX Nifty at 3500 and a holiday ahead, we are likely to open at 3500 and any fall below 3480 may lead to more sharper falls.
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There is positive divergences in Daily, Hourly, 5-Minute charts. Only Minute & Hourly have closed above emas confirming a positive divergence .However, daily confirmation will come on a close above 3750 for tomorrow. Choppy movements likely to continue, trade accordingly..Larger trend remains down with hourly trend attempting a reversal at the last hour..

As long as 3500 holds, then the Nifty moves may be expected as in the chart below.Any sharp fall may change the picture.

Nifty..Highly oversold..!!

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.U.S.Markets:- Fell intra by 8%, but bounced off their lows to close 3.6% down.
2.Asian markets :- Mostly off their lows (at 8.00 A.M)& Sgx Nifty is + 20 points.
3. Nifty is expected to trade down to up for the day.Larger trend remains down.
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If Nifty has to keep the bullish scenario, the rally must commence in the region of 3500-3550 zone. Failure to find support at these levels will open the more bearish scenario leading to more severe falls.

Nifty poised very precariously..

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan :- Bail out package voted in and US markets sold off..
2.Asian markets :-Down 3.5 - 4.0% down at 7.45 A.M..

If no bounce before 9.55 A.M, our markets will gap down & trend down only(Bearish Scenario).

But if there is a bounce off their lows, our markets may gap down and rally from 3650 - 3700 levels(Bullish Scenario)

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After going through many stocks(falling steeply from their multi year log channels) and markets, We are once again at a critical make or break day ahead of us.
Bullish Scenario: Complete the 5th down on Monday and start off a Multi month rally from around 3682.
Bearish Scenario: A big down gap and continue to fall much beyond 3550 towards 3100 or sub 3000.

I repeat again..as all time cycles are down, stay with the trend and at the same time look for any sign of reversals in hourly technicals from 3650-3700 levels as some positive divergences persist. (A word of caution: Initiate long trades only if the positive divergences result in prices going above 5.Hour ema & then 5 day ema...Until then stay with the trend as during such divergences market can keep seeking lower levels).

Fear Index at all time highs and it can get very scary before any reversal can start.
In Feb.2000, Sensex topped at 6157 and fell through to 2565 in Sept.2001 without any meaningful rallies. Remembering the same, lets approach this market.

Wait patiently for the market to show that reversal, if any, and there will be ample time to initiate longs. Until then stay with the trend.

I have reproduced only the bullish scenario chart as the bearish scenario looks quite scary and I need one confirmation of a fall below 3650-3550 to bring in the picture.In either case the present direction is down, the only difference being how far down..?








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Nifty attempting the 4000 ...

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan :- Bail out process continues,A decision likely tonight - a sentiment booster..
2.Asian markets :- Off their intra day low (Taiwan) (at 9.15 A.M)
3.Market which is highly oversold likely to come off the lows from around 3860 to 3900...Trade accordingly..
4. Don't hold longs below 3860.Upward reversal likely above 4000-4050.
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Nifty met with selling pressure at "3985 - 4010" area as mentioned earlier. 4000 - 4050 will continue to be resistance area and 3860 to be support area and break of either of these will lead to sizeable moves.

Nifty's Bounce..Is it for real..?

Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan :- Bail out process continues, next meet on Thursday.
2.Asian markets :- Up about 1.5% to 2.0% (at 7.15 A.M)
3.The rally likely to continue with bouts of selling and the likely range is(If gaps up) 3925/3950 to 4025/4060...Trade accordingly..
4.Tomorrow being a holiday, and the bailout meeting too scheduled tomorrow....overnight positions can be risky/rewarding..

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Nifty came off the lows as expected and gave away some of the gains during the last hour. There is no change in daily technical set up...in downtrend only..A close above 4050 is required for reversal and a close above 4125 is required for a break out.Hourly have turned up and the macd is travelling up in the negative area. Expect resistances around 3985 to 4010 area & at 4050. Fall below 3900(Increases as the day progresses), will lead to more weakness.