Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
56 comments:
reposting
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suj once it will go below 5500 then 5600-5700 will become
resistance and it wont come above it.
@prashant
retailers dont cause circuit. we had one in may09
when retailer participation was lesser than today
Dear Boarders,
Circuit cannot be ruled out, given the current political situation.
Govt. is under tremendous pressure, should the PM decide to throw in the towel we certainly we see a lower circuit.
RainMaker
A new situation is coming up fast we need to see who all are from India in upcoming wikileaks Swiss Bank list.
Keep your fingers crossed until then.
RainMaker
@Rain: they all are powerfull & majority are in power, hence they will try to negotiate with Wikileaks, not to publish data, let's see what future unfolds.
Sujeet,
No one is more powerful than US govt. and yet it failed to stop Assange, so long he lives don't expect negotiations.
RainMaker
@Surjeet.. Even US Govt (most powerful money priting US). could not negotiate with Wikileaks.. Do you think wiki Rupee holding indian power can stop it.. i dont think soo..
Not sustaining above previous day's high(5696) is weak..
As long as Nifty is below "5-DEma" along with week/ month TA down, all sorts of downfalls are possible.
Bilkul sahi kah rahe hain Rainmaker bhai... Congress ki haalat badi kharaab hai. Desh ki janta ko jawaab bhi nahi de pa rahe hain ab. Germany ne jo list di black money walo ki, un par tax aur penalty to lagayi hai par naam bataane ke liye wo kahte hain ki abhi pakke saboot nahi hain. Janta ne jitna jyaada support kiya inko 2nd term me, utna hi jyaada ye desh ko loot rahe hain kameene. Mahngayi, bhrastachar aur sabhi muddo par fail hai ye sarkar...aur sabse badi baat hai ki janta me insecurity ki feeling hai.
Manoj
Ok; but i think his family was interrogated wrongly by interpol & US agency. so it was a kind of revenge. rest this is totally high level drama. Just keep watching breaking news:)
Manoj bhai, aap shahi keh rahey hain, mera apna anubhav hain, jab-jab congress sarkar aayi hain , kaala bazaari, loot, bari hain, aur janta trast hui hain, congress ka is baar supra saaf honay ki sambhavana banti hai, lekin koi bhi ek party takkar deney ki sthi mein nahi hay !
kahawat hain hamam mein sab nangey !
RainMaker
piyush... it was surprise elections result congrss win so thats why upar circuit ...
i guess nifty is gearing up for another upmove near 5730 levels which can be shorted for 5680-70 levels
It is true that under this goverment things have reached a new low. The PM is presiding over a group of corrupt people. They are ruling because the opposition too do not have the credibility.
The young brigade has also failed under Rahul to deliver.
We have a problem at hand.
in 5 min intraday charts rsi and ss are near 50 lvls,sl for longs is 5666
manoj bhaiya....jab charo aur andhkar hi andhkar hota hai tab diye ki jyot jalti hai... sab log mayoosh sab naraj so sahi hai teji karney k liyee aur yeah log yehi chahthey hai
emas converging in 5 min intraday charts,time to see some volatility now
agle elections mein Mayawati jeetei Gi :)lol..Congress ko sirf 1 seat aayegi woh bhi sonia gandhi ki
Aap sab nischint rahe, in haalaat me Manmohan singh ji bahut jaldi resign karenge aur fir mid-term election hi honge. Kyonki in corrupt allies ko sath lekar chalna ab Manmohan jaise imaandaar aadmi ko shobha nahi deta. 10 Mps wala Sharad pawar congress ko bhi black-mail kar raha hai aur poore desh ki janta ko trasht kar diya hai. India ka pyaaj india me mahnga aur Wal-mart me aaj bhi humse sasta bik raha hai. Nifty oversold thi so usme ek rally due thi wo agar poori go gayi hai to downside me 5605 target rahega...aur upar 5740-50 resistance closing basis par.
Manoj
Here is a list of the corrections so far. None of these corrections has exceeded
800 points. Time-wise, none of the earlier corrections was more than 7-weeks long.
This correction threatens to disturb this symmetry both in price and period terms.
it's in 8th week and 712 points down, a move below 5550 will give it the largest magnitude in price terms. None of the corrections earlier retraced the whole of the earlier move.
4787 is the point where the earlier move started. Till the move is below 800 points(above 5550), it can be termed as normal at least in terms of magnitude. It is also different from the earlier corrections in that it is staying close to the new low, while earlier corrections took off sharply ffrom the low. A low, therefore, may not have been established so far.
Date Period ( Weeks) Movement Net
31/10/08-9/1/09 9 2252-3147 895
61/1/09-6/3/09 7 3147-2539 -608
13/3/09-12/6/09 13 2539-4693 2154
12/6/09-17/6/09 5 4693-3918 -775
17/6/09-/23/10/0914 3918-5181 1263
23/10/09-6/11/092 5181-4538 -772
6/11/09-8/1/10 9 4538-5310 634
8/1/10-11/2/10 5 5310-4676 -634
11/2/10-9/4/10 8 4676-5399 723
9/4/10-28/5/10 7 5399-4787 -612
28/5/10-7/11/10 23 4787-6337 1550
7/11/10-till date8 6337-5625 -712
tech shares up bec retaliers have not a single share purchaseing .... tcs up 5% wipro up 3% wahan [ar mandi nahi hai baki sab jagah mandi bec rest of stock bought by retaliers--lol
@prashant shah
that is what i am telling that retailers are not necessary
for circuit. that is the only circuit i have seen as i
started trading in 2009 . if somebody has experience
of circuit pls share.
Prashnat bhaiya!
Ye wala 6/11/09-8/1/10 9 4538-5310 634 (772) hoga, check kar lijiye ya mai galti par hoon.
Prashant shah bhaiya!
Aap sahi kah rahe hain, andhere me roshni ki aas hi humko jeewan deti hai.
Manoj
I was a great fan of Man Mohan Singh right from his days as FM. His first term as PM was so so and yet he impressed with his RTI and Nuclear deal and some ambitious yet incomplete agenda of administrative reforms.
But this second term is really disgusting. Why can't he stand up and say enough is enough ! ( Remember nuclear deal ? How congress fell in line behind him including Sonia and Rahul)
RainMaker
Aisa kuch nahi hai Bhaiyo ki Retail ke paas Tech shares nahi hain..par bahut kam hain. Tech business par IIP data aur inflation se jyaada farq nahi padta hai kyonki wo service industry me aata hai aur doosre USA ka business pahle se kaafi behtar hua hai in companies ka.
Manoj
piyush ...i have expriance circuit 2008 also ... that time OI TOO MUCH HIGH AND cost of carry near about 2 % when circuit happen it was mind blowing bec in future eg... ongc tradeed 900 and cash 1020 so future discount 100 rs similer nifty was discount about 125 point
Rainmaker bhai!
Nuclear deal par inhone apni Govt ko stake par nahi lagaya tha balki Samajwadi party ke sath deal ki thi, Samajwadi party ne jarurat se jyaada faayda uthaane ki kosish ki to unhe kinaare kar diya. Par 2G ghotaale par PM ki chuppi hairaani ki baat hai. Dhanya hai supreme court...jiski vajah se sabki aas abhi tooti nahi hai warna is maahol aam aadmi ka rahna to bahut mushkil hai. Nifty day low ke neeche bahut weak ho sakti hai bhaiyao.
Manoj
At least at present, Nifty reluctant to go below 5660.Shall there be short covering in the latter hrs? or again below 5700? Still 2 Hrs to go!
Itnee Khamoshi kyon hai bhai:)
Sujeet bhai!
Msgs dikh hi nahi rahe na...so sab khamosh ho gaye hain ab.
Manoj
it is quite strange that most seem to b bearish,and I
m not contesting this. Experiance shows= BULL mrkts
r born with high sense of PESSIMISM. Contrary view
always WINS
@Mynac, Short covering may be possible later hrs. with
susequent short at higher levels.India VIX just below 23.5.
Must be below 22 for another south journey...
ps..
sorry was away but it seems
to me that they will take nifty up very fast ..
this s surely 4th zigzag..whr it ends god knows
copper abv 4, us/eu doing ok..china
under performance s due to non yuan policy..
our under performance is due to interest rate hike expectation..
with 2.7 iip and inflation at 8.4 ..
if i was rbi governer i will commit suicide(as suj. did )
which way to go..growth or vote?
thats making these etf to replan..
till US is fine EMs are fine..God bless west..
Yes its true they had a deal with samajwadi party, but It was Dr. Singh's persistence to go with the nuclear deal that congress had take risk to shun the communist and search for new allies. And if you remember, it is alleged that Congress had to pay Rs. 25 crores per vote !
Congress had to do all this because Manmohan Singh really wanted this deal to pass the muster.
RainMaker
Thanks Dear Tigar,at least some one is thinking in that manner when discussions are going on about market.But still long way to go for Bulls.
one more thing..
if anybody remembers manmohan singh s actuall god for us..
he opened the economy..i living n a small town know what
levis is?
he is a true god for this nation..saved from asian crisis
and election 20 % upper circuit...
so u think he will let go go things so easily
"Singh is King"
@Mynac, Not able to decide which way to go for last one hr.
market neither going up or dn. What is going on, dear?
A big Volume bar @ 5680,
If this time holds it can achive days high & above.
Keep days Low as Sl for longs
sir..
what if rbi doesnt increase rate on jan 25.
5 th ???
:):):)
manu ,
all of what u say may be right. but suppose u r wrong
when u'll say that. at what level of nifty?
new lows in bank nifty
Yes Dear Tigar, you are correct, almost for past 2 hours, NS is within the intraday Fib 23% to 50 %(5685 - 5697).
only a decisive move on either side will give direction it seems.
ps..
i m not suggesting any nifty levels..
but i think singh will manage the show..
inflation s a problem n whole asia (thanx to qe1 and 2)
we are poor countries..u ever thought rel
cap was justified at 3000 and now at 600 or 200..
my dad said when ever fd annual rate is 8-9 % sell all equities and when 10-11%
buy equities..we r n midway..if v interest rates going up then no base for nifty and if peaked time to buy....
Looks like FII just pulling out the money due to uncertainty
on political front. Market may be waiting for to finish
the Q3 earning declaration by big gaints!!!
@ Tigar,
Yet very tough to even guess but when we expect "That Direction"(i.e.as per our expectation)market used to choose the other way.This is the beauty.
Only Trading above 5702 i.e. Hrly.HEMA shall be slightly relief for bulls for any up move.
Manu,
RBI is facing a great dilemma.
Inflation is high, increase bank rates, Increase CRR etc. simply sqeeze money supply
Industry runs the risk of slowing down, keep
interest rates stable and make money avaiable.
Banks are facing liquidity crunch, increase money supply, reduce the CRR and SLR
and also keep Bank rate low,
And above all Govt. is in a mess can't support RBI's move either way.
RainMaker
Another big volume bar @5680....
@Mynac, I think this time it may not happen. The situation
is worst now & before retailers start pulling out their money
FII wanted to be the first...
manu this is called HOPE
NEW POST DONE
Illango sir, I was long on nifty at 5633, and coverd
my positions at 5720.I get this feeling that there
is an HNS formation for may b intraday only at
5696. Head 5723. shoulders 5696. Please cud u suggest
It is always tough for those sellers,who decided to push market further down from low levels & come late for their sell,because short covering plus bottom fishing used to get start there.So it is always tough to decide,that from here where market shall go.
spot sustaining below 5684 will be a problm. likely
to test 5654 then
sir, have shortd at 5696, for a trgt of 5654. Cud
u kindly enlighten. regards,
Deepak
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