Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
30 comments:
பொங்கல் நல்வாழ்த்துக்கள்.......பெண்களுக்கு செம (Not சம) ஊரிமை கொடுத்து பழக்கப்பட்ட நான் இந்த முறையும் அம்மா ஜெ கட்சி தான்...... Will go long only at the end of this series......
niftycracked.blogspot.com
check out the accurate nifty prediction made few days
ago.
also check out the mind boggling prediction of nifty
targeted to break its 2008 lows.
Dear Ilango,
Thanks for VIX-NF chart.Even a lay man like me can see the correlation.VIX Has crossed res.line but whether this time too it will fall again or not? The coming days shall be the answer.
**Even this Bull also trying to run away from the ring,probably it is also wounded one.
Have a happy festive season & weekend.
those who are interested to learn new.
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
sybmol - BSESN-X (they may have for nifty too. I did not
check)
Add indicator - TSI True Strengh Indicator
setting 4,7
Simple Signal - crossing zero line on both sides.
There are few other complicated signals I can explain
if someone is interested.
Looks like every one thinks its heading south.
But this may be just 200dma test of normal bull market.
Volume analysis is always good.
Stockcharts.com has force index. its combination of volume
and price. set to 12 and check EPI most traded eft
in US. See how force is more negative and then gradually
reduces is negative number if fall is going to be
contained. And as of now there are signs this will
be contained. Check RSI 5... it had postive divergance
on last low of 5690 and it has positive divergace at
todays low too. Tony C support level for wave 4 happened
today. Although all this can be wiped out there are
reasons to be optimistic.
My only worry is when US market will correct soon what
will happen. My guess is nify will put 2-(5) that time.
That is expected early next month. So nifty (4) is almost
done and we will get 1-(5) now. Check Tony C wave
counts for this.
Sir,
We will send this bull fully decked up up north from monday onwards.
Wish you all a very Happy Makara Sankranthi.
Dear Yash,as you said,
"My only worry is when US market will correct soon what will happen"
That's the main cause of worry now a days for market players.Relentless huge CE writing in 5600 CE, which is today in the money is worry for bulls,when Nifty is trading near it's 200 DMA.
The FII cash market selling figures are increasing day by day.
So,even Fund managers would not dare to go for delivery base buying as before,though at present 10% correction is there since 4th Jan.The market related news/atmosphere are not great either.All N all these 9 trading days have changed the entire story.No sign of any reversal,even intraday rallies are used as a exit route only.So let the market decide it first where it wants to go first.
I will be very happy to see "But this may be just 200dma test of normal bull market.
Volume analysis is always good. "
Let us hope for the best.
mynac - I agree. I just wanted to caution people who
shorts. That can be dangarous for normal investor in
any decent bull market and I don't think there are
definate signs that Indian Markets are entered bear
markets yet.
Somebody posted some blog which says risk 240 points
reward 2400 points. The problem is by the time risk of
240 points are said and done, normal investor can go
broke. There should not be greed for reward of 2400
points on short side. Even if one gets last 1000 points
on short side, its good for normal investor.
So many shorters are gone broke since last 2009 low.
FII re-arrnage their portfolio at start of year. Even
Jan 2010 same happened but may be little different
dates.
Sir,
mmm.. mmm. i will start cry :P this week done 4 contra trades = 2 failures 2 successful. Next week also i will try boldly if at all my "level permits". One good thing i hv 2 do is - I should not post here, let me try :( No positions now. Strictly disciplined. Believe me sir.
@Yash - last week we discussed abt 5858 levels. hope now we got the result, still pending upto 5552??? let us see.. how it's retracement level works out, if that is not satisfactory, we will head to "south" as said by Sir.
@ Yash,
I insist on directions and direction I'm good at navigating. I don't like to call a visit to 2500 neither to 7800. It is really quite simple....the colour of TT shows it all. Look at the JNSAR trigger for Monday - 5874 - a good 220 points from where it triggered a sell and this number is falling fast. The one who followed "Hour JNSAR" would have gained 150 points(50 in + & 100 in -).
You stick to the direction...it'll sure take you to destination. I want readers to rely on their "own judgements based on sound observations".. and this is the reason I do not like people to talk about "Tom., Dick and Harry's predictions" here. Those who predicts perishes... those who follow flourishes.
@ Sujatha,
Just combine the larger trend and reverse your trades once the counter trend trades are done...your rewards would be multifold.
@ Mynac,
Your simple & frank statements of plain facts taken from F&O data along with FII's figures on a consistent manner expressed here is one helluva truth one should dare not ignore.
"The Bull picture" just goes to show that loveable bull is chased & tormented once in a while. I'm sure a time will come, the same bull will be all decked up for a northern journey.
@All,
I am using "Spyware Doctor with Antivirus". It is freeware. My system is slow for the past 1 week. Any suggestion to improve speed?
mynac
how can we differ call or put buy or write ? can u explain?
syamala
in/
ilango sir
5ema clsoing abov e5dma since last twodays. is not a indication trend will reverse soon?
syamala
@ Syamala,
That is one of the reference points. Most others are weighed in favour of "Down". In a strongly trending market, its utility is limited until an exhaustion is seen in prices and then it may come handy.
Sir,
I am not trader and not definately intraday to follow
hr numbers. I just go by swing high and low of last
intermediate degree.
April high is 5400 .. this stuff should not go below
that at any cost. I will reverse only after it goes
below that if I want to short.
lot of people use MA 200 and good buy opportunity come
just below MA 200 is a say. But there are 252 roughly
trading days in Year. Look at MA 252. Once ow twice a
year visit to this level. Last visit exactly at May low.
Right now it sits 5487. This is more than april high
so looks good to visit there. Its 150 points below
yesterdays low. If I buy right now then I look at as
150 points risk to down side vs all time highs in future.
Weekly ema 13/34 is still on bull side. Weekly ema 34
are tested right now.
I think since group here follows on hourly basis, my
thinking is not useful.
Thanks
sir
pls share major support on EOD/Weekly and Monthly basis which long term investors should watch
can any body tell me how can I post some important nifty charts here?if llango sir permits
@ Yash,
You sound quite cynical.
We have all kinds of traders here.
Positional who keep it for 3 days to 30 days or more.
Intraday traders who trade for hours and at times carry over.
There are a lot of consistent way of making 25-50 points a day (at times 100 to 150 points). That is a lot of money.
We try to educate traders the importance of "Discipline in following a chosen method" and the realisation that "In the end, you are on your own with your trades".
People throw here all kinds of methods and vanish away once "consistency" is not observed.
We have taught traders the miracle of "SAR method" with live demonstration. There is a reader who keeps score of that method who keeps sending me the cumulative gains but I have discouraged him to reveal these. Our aim here is to ensure that "you stick to a trading method" and you can accomplish all that set out to achieve in this market.
I'll end this with my critic's offrepeated remark:
"Why do you want to put a figure to the market...?? 50sma., 100sma., 200ema/ sma.. Does it help when a trend is on in full force..? Are you scared that it'll suddenly gap up and leave you in the lurch..? When market turns up, it definitely shows you and everyone provided your vision is not coloured. No support can hold a falling market and no resistance could stop a raging bull market. Trade the direction.".
Good Night.
Dear syamala,
Put-Call writing & Buying are just like a coin which has two sides.How one correlate it with the current market condition is his/her understanding.
Since 4th Jan. Nifty day by day showing new low.At present 5600 is in the money call and though closed at 5655 those writers (Sellers)who have written the 5600 CE have the confidence that Nifty is likely to go below even 5600 or in other wards "they" shall succeed in pressing the Nifty below 5600,and they shall be benefited by their trade,.......On the other hand one can say that Nifty closed above 5600 and still there is a room left for any correction even up to 5600 so Buyers have bought it in anticipation of support there or the buyer shall come for buying though the over all market out look is bearish,....
After 10 % correction,the way it has written today,considering the present bearish sentiments plus weak technical parameters which are not favorable for Bulls,the seller(writer) has the upper hand.
For any writing the writer needs margin money and the buyer used to pay just premium.
So normally the writer is more important than a buyer,but this is not a rule.Some times even a writer can go wrong.( Please see bhav copy for 3rd Jan,6200 PE is the latest example,when there after Bears turned the table)
NS if breaks below 5610 may trgt 5533 levels
6338-5690=648 points
6181-648=5533 probably by 18th or 19th january correspondingly vix may move up in 25-26 range where will face resistance and may retrace down
expecting a strong quickfire bounce from 5530 as its channell support
support of 5690-5710 range may form resistance now to nifty upmove,if breaks and sustains above it expecting nifty to move upto 5870-5935 levels
Sorry that you found me cynical. I won't post.
If everyone is following SAR then no one will
have any problem. My only point was for short people
make sure you don't get trapped. Its true you can
get trapped at upside too but that normally comes
out ok evenually unless you bought at dot com top
like event. But on short side you can keep
getting trapped. But as you point out, people
are following SAR so no issues.
Yash,
I liked your analysis. Is there any way I can reach you
to learn more?
Thanks,
Ajay
Dear Prabhakar! If you use winxp, please try the following. I have not seen any issues with my system for years.
1. Auto update of winxp, OFF.
2. Install ashampoo firewall, free.
3. install Avira antivirus, free. Keep system restore OFF, scan system Full.
4. Install Malwarebytes anti-malware, free. Update, scan complete, restart, Keep system restore ON.
5. That is all, if your system has not been defraged for long time, defrag it.
Let me know if your issues are gone!
Mishra
@ prabhakar, I forgot to add, keep windows firewall OFF, remove old antivirus, firewall, spyware tools to avoid conflicts before doing the above and do not visit any suspicious sites till above procedure is completed for shake of your system. ( Suspicious I mean not only the forbidden one, but also any other sites you do not trust.
Mynac,
FIIs have sold only 4000 cr so far. They have put in lot
more money every month in recent times.
In all heavy corrections since last yr, they have sold more
than 10000 cr.
I believe the real FII selling is yet to come. At this pt.,
I am leaning towards Yash's view that we are almost done
with the correction for this month and we will see a sharp
rebound next week. The real fall should come next month
when the US mkt corrects.
That being said, I will be keenly watching Ilango's
analysis for further confirmation.
Thanks,
Ajay
Of course
Dear ajay,
First of all I am not from Bear Camp,or probably shall be the most disappointed market player if market shall fall from here.But... the current price movement,sentiments,FNO data etc.etc.are not favoring Bulls in spite of Good Global market's cues.Even most market experts were not expecting this kind of correction "this" time.
As you said,
"FIIs have sold only 4000 cr so far."
But.... there are no that kind of strong buyers for even this kind of sell is the main worry.The World Indices particularly U.S.market in up trend but our market reacting exactly in the other direction.I don't know but whether,this time our market has taken the lead to decide the probable world market's trend? i.e. worldwide correction?because almost all world markets are trading almost near it's 52 week high.
I am definitely not an expert,& shall be the most happy one if you will remain "Ajay"( the unbeatable) always.
So let me join with you eagerly,to know Dear Ilango's analysis for further confirmation.
Dear Elango Sir,
If you like the following anecdote you may add it to your
life line.
One glass of milk.
One day a poor boy, who was selling goods from door to door
to pay his way to school, found he had only one thin dime
left, and he was hungry. He decided he would ask for a meal
at the next house. However, he lost his nerve when a lovely
young woman opened the door. Instead a meal he asked for
a drink of water. She thought he looked hungry, so brought
him a large glass of milk. He drank it slowly, and then
asked, "How much do I owe you?"
"You don't owe me anything", she replied. "Mother has
taught us never to accept to pay for an act of kindness".
He said,"Then I thank you from my heart".
As Howard Kelly left that house, he not only felt stronger
physically, but his faith in God and men was strong also.
He had been ready to give up and quit.
Years' later that young woman became critically ill. The
local doctors were baffled. They finally sent her to the
big city, where they called in specialists to study her rare
disease. Dr. Howard Kelly was called in for consultation.
When he heard the name of the town she came from, a strange
light filled his eyes. Immediately he rose and went down
the hall of the hospital to her room. Dressed in his
doctor's gown, he went in to see her. He recognized her
at once. He went back to the consultation room, determined
to do his best to save her life. From that day he gave
special attention to the case
After a long struggle, the battle was won. Dr. Kelly
requested the business office to pass the final bill to him
for approval. He looked at it, wrote something on the edge
and the bill was sent to her room. She feared to open it,
for she was sure it would take the rest of her life to pay
for it all. Finally she looked, and something caught her
attention the side of the bill.
She began to read the following words: "Paid in full with
one glass of milk".
You give but little when you give of your possessions. It
is when you give of yourself that you truly give. Through
the hands of such as these God speaks, and from behind their
eyes He smiles upon earth. It is well to give when asked,
but it is better to give unasked, through understanding.
For in truth it is life that gives unto life while you,
who deem yourself a giver, are but a witness.
-Khalil Gibran
Dear Mr. Elango Sir,
I hope you enjoyed Pongal.
I just read a beautiful anecdote by Khalil Gibran. Sure you will like it. Perhaps you may like to share the same with our blogmates through the 'Life Line'. Bt how to send the same to you. I really dont know.
With reards,
LV
I wonder why cynical people start talking about nifty reaching 2800 figures once again .. A sharp fall, & thats it all going bonkers...
US mkts may show signs of recovery & the europe concerns might still be holding off for some time now. Strengthening $ & rising crude are causing a sell off in Indian mkts. ..
Please note as to how the US gov is trying to bring back the huge $2 trillion they spent in recovery.. what time frame they expect to get it back ... these things are not getting solved so soon or even in a couple of years... Sensex was a bit over valued when it crossed its earnings which is getting corrected now.
Emerging nations are the only ones that are still giving 8-9% GDP growth with China & India leading the pact. Such kind of corrections are good opportunities to start buying good stocks at lower levels ... Looking ahead big brother reliance has underperformed the nifty over the past 1 1/2 yrs & he will lead the next big rally.
Simplest of stratergy is to write options - out of the money options some 300 pts away form the spot. Every time the mkt moves by 100 or so points, keep squaring off & take new positions as above. Please paper trade for 2-3 months & figure out urself. In case some1 got a better way, kindly educate us all.
I expect next week to be bullish
Go long SL 5640 - Tgt 5950
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/783/nifty.jpg
Dear Sir,
I have so far worked only on moving averages to give me an overall trend picture, and as per that, the 50 DMA is about to break the 200 DMA downwards, giving the signal of a "Death Cross". Also, the nifty has broken the 100 DMA with very high volumes of 2.2 lac crores on Friday. I just want to understand whether there will be any chance of a bounceback, though temporary (even for a couple of days), so that I can square my 4 positions of IDFC that I picked up at 163. I understand that individual stock calls are not given here, but will be very happy with the advise on the nifty, as I plan to sell 2 futures of the Feb series of the same share to hedge. Other 2 lot shares I will pick up for delivery with a 3 yr target of 250.
Hence, request an additional 2 lines, especially tomorrow on how to trade in case market opens gap up. The JNSAR you have put for tomorrow is 5874, which is about 220 points from here.
Thank you.
Regards,
Shruti
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