Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
50 comments:
Intresting Observation, just a copy paste!!!!!!!!
Fno game was started in India in full swing after 2003 … after that this strategy appeared in real value and till date working without any single mistake... This strategy works only with index (nifty) not with stocks … but investors can take full advantage of this strategy for building portfolio... Even traders also can get realistic idea of market moves like fiis, diis and big players.
Magic for you.. start from 2003 ……… watch 2003 nifty Jan month high its 1105.60 … now watch data of coming months of 2003 only when nifty closed above Jan month high … if m not wrong then it is may 2003 when nifty closing price was 1106.80 .. Means above Jan 2003 high price.. And pls watch after that nifty never came down below Jan 2003 month high on closing basis till 31st dec 2003. According to strategy it was clear signal for market player to go long after may 2003... For whole 2003 year.
Now just watch 2004 Jan high – it is = 2014.65 never closed above this level in 2004 whole year means clear signal no buy in 2004 .
2005 – Jan month high was 2120.15.. Closed above on monthly basis in June 2005 @ 2220.60...again after that never broke Jan high on monthly closing basis in 2005.. Means go long after June 2005 till dec 2005.
2006 – Jan high 3005.10.. Closed above this level in feb 2006.. After that never broke the same... Clear buy signal.
2007 – Jan high- 4167 … closed above in may month 2007 … never broke after that.. Clear buy.
2008 – Jan high -6357 … never closed above this level in whole 2008... Means no buy... Only sell... Touched 2252 in that year.
2009 – Jan high – 3147.. Closed above in apr 2009.. Never broke after that made high 5221 after that in 2009.. Clear buy.
2010- Jan high – 5310.85 closed above in June 2010.. Hit 6338 after that never broke.. Clear cut buy.
GM Everybody,
Dear Tigar,cannot trade today as I have forgot the password.
Considering today's addition in NF up to 10.00 AM,5660,5645,5638 looks important for me from trading point of view.
Still long way to go so let us see.
Good volume trades @ 5638,5647,5670 are imp.at this point for me because big volume trades are concentrated at these points in NF.
Where is Dear Prashant? Now he can type 5 instead of 6 for Nifty quotes easily while posting the comment.:))
@ Harpreet,
It is s o simple and so effective.
Jan.2011 High is 6181. If Nifty closes above 6181 in any subsequent months, then it gets into buy mode. Till then, it is sell on rises.
Thank you for sharing it.
@ harpreet
As Sir said your observation is simple and effective.
thanks harpreet bhai..
Thanks Lord and Bhavesh Bhai,
I found it interesting, so copy pasted it for our Nifty Family!
Regards
@ Harpreet its a copy paste from Mudraa right?
@Musti, i got it on my Facebook, not aware of the origin.
gm sir and all friends:)
Good morning sir andall :)
that's a very good "post" harpreet "balle balle" :) thanks.
Sir - but as i am having my "now' policy 1 round already over as per my "low protects" now 2nd round doing contra any guess sir??? simple 200 sma holding + profit booking on BB levels
VIX above 25 now.
sirrr- doube bottom??? pls. confirm.. 2nd contra round holdinggggggggg
Harpeet...thans a lot for sharing Nifty strategy :)
@ harpreet
just a small correction in 2003 nifty closed above jan highs (1105.30)in month of june 1134.
Closing of may was 1006.80
@ Sujatha,
Corrections..Hard to guess. If it is a flat correction, it may revisit 5682 or closer and fall.
Too early to decipher.
Priya Mitro!
VIX ki 25-26 ki range me bahut strong resistance hai so VIX is level se fall hone ke kaafi chances hain. Nifty oversold hai aur VIX overbought hai so Nifty me 100-150 points ki rally 1-2 din me aa sakti hai aur neeche 5605 Angad ke paer jaisa bhari support hai.
Manoj
Sir....options data 'seem' to suggest a fall towards 5550 today, probably later half !
regards
Harpreet good work. Congrats. May your facebook give you more such analytical articles. May your tribe multiply. God bless you.
probably after going to HH EMA or even D EMA !
your view point sir ?
@ Ka,
The 3rd wave has much lower possibilities. Selling on rises is the only way to reap big till "Nifty Closes above 5 day Ema".
thank you sir....
Sir & Friends,
OOT.
Could anyone guide to get RT Data for Amibroker(Free & Paid).
Thanks.
Sir,
Tried searching for Pawans intraday strategy but couldn’t find. Just confirming
“For intraday traders: Buy when Nifty moves above HLEma and book either at 5HEma or HHEma.”
As nifty closed above 5670 HLEMA at 10 o clock it triggered a buy right?
What will be the ideal stop loss in such case?
@Vaibhav Bhai!!
Thanks a lot for cross verification of the data, sorry for the error, form now on will make sure to double check any such observation before posting.!!
Regards.
Cooldent,
The buy strategy works best in "Hour T/F" if the Day T/F is above DLEma.
Also when Nifty is in such a strong downtrend -Month/ week/ day, the hour should be traded cautiously on longs but effortlessly on Shorts.
@ Prabhakar,
visit http://www.investbulls.com
Real time signal feed for intra @ Rs.600/PM
Chandrabose
@ Prabhakar,
visit http://www.investbulls.com
select IB central for details
Chandra
Thanks sir
@Chandra.
Thanks a lot for the details.
Sir - thank you.
OI in 5600 put increasing...
@Prabakar, if on realtime 2 scrips (nifty + any one) will do for you, you can install ManshiRT which takes realtime data from yahoo. There is a provision for updating a few more scrips manually from google intra in this free version. EOD data to the same can be obtained with GETBHAVCOPY, a free program.
Banks showing no signs of panic at all. Right now, Hong Kong in the red and we are in the green. Last week, HK was up 2% while we faded away. No signs of panic despite breaking Friday's low ?! I was hoping to cover my shorts partially at 5600 NF. I will wait in anticipation of the Great Afternoon Panic (GAP) !!! Will it happen yet again ?!?
Nifty Futures one minute chart: CLICK HERE
Good morning Sir and friends.
@skmishra, Thanks I will try ManishRT now.
Ilango Sir, Hope my OOT is not disturbing.
unwinding in 5800pe and abv price ,and strong addition in 5400-5500pe...good addition in 5600 and 5700ce,vix also moved up even tho nifty is in green...does it indicating of some panic selling may be seen in later part of today trading???
For the very short term, 5833 to 5625 (200 points) may be the 1st of 3rd of 3rd, the second wave is on targetting 5700 area, followed by a big fall today afternoon 5700-200= 5500, below 5500 by tomorrow,
Mildly Bearish, Price wise
1st wave down: 6337-5690=647 points
2nd wave up: 5690-6182=488 points (25 sessions)
3rd Wave down: 6182-650 (3>1)=5532
4th Wave Up: 5532+250 points= 5782 (15-20 sessions)
5th down: 5782-500= 5282
3rd wave Breakdown (Hour Chart)
1st of 3rd= 6181-5700= 481 points
2nd of 3rd= 5700-5873= 173 points
3rd of 3rd = 5873-5625 (till now) = 250 points
4th of 3 rd= 5625-5725= 100 points
5th of 3rd= 5725-200= 5525
Time-Wise Calculations:
The 3rd wave should come to an end in about 3 days. The 4th up should start thereafter, taking about 15-20 sessions. The final downmove should start in the middle of Feb.
This scenario is for a mild bearishness, where 3rd is slightly more than 1st in magnitude.
In case of wild bearishness, the down target for this 3rd wave will be 5300 (1.6% of first wave). The Scenario is like this:
1st wave down: 6337-5690=647 points
2nd wave up: 5690-6182=488 points (25 sessions)
3rd Wave down: 6182-1035 (3>1)=5300
4th Wave Up: 5300+250 points= 5550 (15-20 sessions)
5th down: 5550-500= 5050
(The scenario in Bold/Red are projections yet to take place)
Dear Sir,
GM! what should be the stoploss for the positional short? is it 5DEMA? on closing basis?
Prashant - thanks for your views. is that 5700 is must to touch??as per EW?? it's coincidentally 38.2% retracement level. since morning it's trying but din't come still.
sir - Is this right?? 50 WEEK ema 5540 & 50 WEEK SMA 5500.
@ sujatha, thats not mandatory
thank you prashant - u and nifty gave a reply instantly :)
NEW POST DONE.
= = = = == = =
Sujatha,
This market has not stopped at 50,100sma so far.
200sma is under threat now.
I see no bottoming pattern yet though market could reverse without having one too.
The weight of evidences still point "Down".
the chart from 5832 high is giving 5680 as the maximum
point for this 2nd wave, it has almost reached there and fallen
the 3rd of 3rd of 3rd should begin now, it should be the sharpest
(3 threes!). it may target 5550/5500
Significant call addition @ 5700. approximately 10L.
A lot of calls are added @ 5900 as well 8L.
Surprisingly not much addition @ 5800.
I could understand only one thing. Crossing 5700 is very difficult.
If it crosses, the relief rally might continue till 5900 without too much hurdles.
As sir said, in the avalanche of downfall, these things might not matter at all. But just an observation.
last 15 minutes for exiting all long positions.
Prashant, if it goes to 5200-5300 level in one day fast enough then lot of margin calls expected. and then probably it may test even 4700.
looks very distant as of now but anything is possible.
Prashant an alternative wave count
wave 1 6338.5 - 6243.55
wave 2 6243.55 - 6310.9
wave 3 6310.9 - 5690.35
wave 4 5690.35 - 6181.05
wave 5 6181.05 - - 5400 (approx) now
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