Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
82 comments:
However dont see any ww in the mking so best reemain short even if it heads up no problem
Add to short at 5700 and sleep we will hot 1 more lower low then up 5950-6000?
http://wolfewaveindia.blogspot.com/2011/01/follow-up-nifty-28-jan-2011.html
Thank u WWI. I am an avid follower of your posts along with those of many learned ones sharing their views as Suja the contra, Yoda the bear,mynac the OI,Prashant, PS the Prof,manu the bull head... Just due to net-handicap unable to acknowledge and thank.
No problem sir
Priya Mitro!
Har panic me maal daba ke Buy karo...mai roj roj nahi kahta. Intra day aapko maja nahi aayega par agar aap 5450 ka stop loss rakh kar 5500 tak buy karenge to kam se kam 250-300 points profit aapko 1-2 weeks me mil jaayega. 5650 cross karte hi sabke count change ho jayenge so Buy Buy Buy in every fall..
Manoj
sir & family..gm..
Rg..hi..
i m bull head only for my portfolio
as mandatory optional:)
game is stock specific from march 2009..
it was nt d way 06,07
wwi s good
for good stocks u need luck..
Good Morning ALL
Sir,
As per chart, may nifty remain down or sideways for another 30Hrs?
@RG
Thanks for remembering. Somberi thanam athigamaiduchu sir.
A monthly close below 5494 could extinguish all the bullish hopes. In the last 10 years, a monthly close below 13 month EMA has signaled a nice bear market.
by Manoj: Buy and buy till 5000 for 250-300 points gain with sl 5450 positional. When 5650 will cross, then only it will be realised..( I do not ask to buy so aggressively everyday)
" Buy Buy Buy in every fall" aur bolthae hai angrazi nahin aatha!!! Hi manoj. Keep going. 'Pehla Bhile'
Mishra ji Namaskaar!
Aapne 5000 tak Buy level likh diya hai galti se par mera buy level 5500 hai so pls theek kar de.
RG bhaiya aapki IRONY to famous hai poore Blog me aur aapki trading ke to kya hi kahne bhaiya, u r great hi great.
Manoj
@ U.K.Raj,
My intention to denote here that "Just because the lead indicator is at the bottom, it is necessary the market will reverse." Such a reversal happens in a normal market correction scenario. But when it is bearishly trending down as reflected in the Tech.table, these indicators may stay down for more time.
You may also read these indicators with two or three time frames. Day stochastics is moving down and the hour is at the bottom: You can take your inference here.
Bulls will not change the weekly colour "flying over hour/ day TA". No need to pre-empt the market.
The fall from 6181 to 5624 happened without Nifty violating 14-hour sma. Even for an aggressive trader, that would give a signal.
Correction to my above post by Manoj( wrong interpretation by me)Manoj's buy level is 5500.
rg sir,
u made class 1 kid a prof.
Sir,
"The fall from 6181 to 5624 happened without Nifty violating 14-hour sma. Even for an aggressive trader, that would give a signal."
Could not understood this.
Please clear at your convenience.
Sunil
@RG,
My greed mitigated to a certain point as BN came to 10580. Now would you allow me to see 10470-90 levels? Please... :D
You are a "Class 1" (First class)kid Prof.
==
manoj - irony ....not at all Sir.
Hi manu. Stock specific seems a safe trading method. Requires extra mile running - that's all.
Good Morning Mr.ILango & everyone!
My observation was on tuesday morning that market may tank even after the .25% hike in Intt rate. Every rally will be an opportunity to sell upto when Nifty does not close above 5833 now, In downside 5500-5550 area will provide wonderful risk reward ratio in favour of Buyers..stop loss will be 5400 and target will be 5900-5950. Take care everybody & catch u all later whenever possible.
THIS MESSAGE POSTED BY MR. KUMAR ON 27TH AT 9.56. PLEASE DONT
IGNORE IT
@ RG - so far no "contra idea" becoz entire bull community is engulfed in bears TUMMY for ......... fill in the blanks. :) i agree with Mr. WW the bounce will reach upto 5650/700 when it comes. this is "a pre k.g. student" opinion.
Fire - take it down. I am piggy-backing your trade. SBI short is also good so far.
@ Sunil,
When I update the chart @ 11.05Am, you can see the "red coloured sma which is 14 hour sma" in the Lead Indicator chart.We identified the fall from 6181 as a 3rd wave and the impulsive move down from there did not breach 14 hour sma till it reached 5624.
Currently oversold situation compels one to go aggressively long but the danger of a steep fall is not negated. Hence, an aggressive trader may use this 14-hour sma to turn up or wait for Nifty to trade above this sma before trading long. This way he/she will allow the trending move to maximise his/ her profits.(As in a trailing SL).
mishrajee= taneek dhayaan sae bhaiyaa
@Manoj bhaiya, today is a terrible day in terms of number of stocks going down... and you're the lonely bull here... play safe bhaiya... good luck on your trades.
Regards
S K Mishra,
Good morning,
i sent mail plz check.
Thanks.
Dear Ilango,
Thanx for replying so fast and clearing my doubt.
Sunil
Thanks for those valuable words of wisdom in pre-market view...
thanks for emerging OUT for us and being there...
deep regards
Master,
Please check mail at your convenience.
@ buzz= what is the advance to decline ratio????
Dear Friends,
A possible reversal and continuation of downmove are equiprobable.
But betting on the reversal will make you loose your existing profitable short position.
While continuation of the downmove might just be at a stage from where it accelerates.
As the trukey in the "Remeninsces Of a Stock Operator" would have said, "Its a Bear Market".
Buzz Bhaiya!
Bahut bahut dhanyawaad aapki salaah ke liye, Ab baaki to aaj ki closing hi saabit karegi. Bhaiya ji agar aap stop loss aur conviction ke sath trade karenge to darne ki koyi baat nahi hai. 5500 tak Nifty buy karte hi ja raha hoon aur stop loss 5450 hai...abhi 5535 par aur buy ki hai.
Manoj
@RG,
Next to Master, You are the most respected person to me in this forum. I piggybacked a lot of your trades in the last months. Now if you piggyback one of mine, I get confused if I should get honored or afraid. :)
We have seen in the past on many occasions, a reversal attempt, if any, will be revealed if market is able to conquer the previous hour high or 2-hour high. The same goes for day T/f: Previous day's high or 2-Day high.
Keep them in your guide posts depending on your time frame.
For a major reversal, positive divergences will appear in "Indicators/ oscillators" while prices make newer lows.
@Deepak, it was 1 advance for 10 declines sometime back... nifty looking very weak now..
@Manoj bhaiya, bahot himmat hai aap mein... good luck.. by the way, why are you so bullish at this point in time?
Regards
sir,
now it has touched the down channel
channel return line
manu part exited
@ Abhishek I could not find your mail in my inbox,please send to pisgoa@g...
Let's call it mutual respect Fire. Your yesterday's post held me back from booking out my BN Short. Will hold till you sign off exit.
"channel return line" Prof saheb-"Return"?
@ PS,
It has touched the parallel line drawn for the resistance line connecting 6339 & 6181.
There are divergences in 9 day rsi and fast macd.If it is true, then prices should confirm....
Will it..??
@RG,
Now my confusion cleared. I am simply scared. :)
The current low in BN futures, if broken, could get us to a target of 10460.
In BN spot, 10450-90 is my tgt for now. Below that... Nope, I am getting greedy again.
The "Semi-log Monthly chart's lower channel support which has held for 2 years is @ 5475-5500.
Overall 5475-5525 area has to be held for a reversal..
Sk Mishra,
Ok,
Sent mail again.
@WWI great to have you back.
@buzz, m long too, n buying at every dip= contrary
view
@Ilango,
Hourly chart what is blue line sma (red is 14sma)?
Chandra
sir
""""The "Semi-log Monthly chart's lower channel support which has held for 2 years is @ 5475-5500.
Overall 5475-5525 area has to be held for a reversal..""""
can u post chart of this..
ps..big heart..in ur and jazz interaction seems all over
4780
yes sir, probably it wont.
because the price crack is highly impulsive
after breaking support. and your tone
( if i can read correctly) has become bearish.
but sir i was talking abt channel return line frm
5800 for maybe aggresive long- in case ur 5475 hypothesis
comes true.
rg sir , all jargons. ppl who have less practical knowledge
use it to show their worth :-)
intra peak 5595 where todays downtrend started is
very far to give advantageos entry for aggresive longs
again massive accumulation in 5400 PE suggesting long buildup...and option data is skewed towards 5300-5500 puts.
sir, then sell in everyrise should be the strategy ? till what level sir ? hh ema or a close above dl ema ? Plz advise.
regards
@ Chandra,
Blue line: 7-Hour Sma.
piyush - till time is there for "aggressive longs" this is not the time
@ PS,
That was a timely reminder and it has one intraday trade as well as a part booking of JNSAR.
@ Manu,
The chart was posted few days ago. I'll update at 12.00Noon post.
suj can u elaborate?
If the current downtrend is just an A B C correction , A was 660 point,
if A = C then mkt should stop falling somewhere near 5500. while if its impulsing down then 5300 is easily achievable
A bullish hammer in hourly chart is forming from exactly 5525?
Buzz Bhaiya!
Maine apni Nifty 5650-60 par buy ki thi last week aur RBi policy wale din 75% 5775-5800 par exit kar gaya tha aur baaki bachi huyi trailing stop loss par 5730 me kaat di thi, tabhi mera view 5550 ka ban gaya tha. ab jab level aa gaya hai to fir mai to Buy karunga hi, apna stop loss mujhe pata hai aur Target RamBharose hai bhaiya ji. Yaad rakhna bhaiya ji, ek din abhi aur baaki hai Monthly closing me so Bulls ne abhi maidaan chora nahi hai.
Manoj
Time for aggressive longs?
manu,
i guess yeaterday eod chart of sir also carries
the bullish picture if 5475 holds
@IlangoSir,
Thanks
Chandra
@ FIRE,
Thank you for sending the complete file - "Trade-the-line". I have uploaded and replaced the earlier file.(Trading with trendlines**)
GM sir and freinds long in nf at 5570 for intraday happy trading to all
ril also near 52 week low
Although it is too early to say and there is high probability that my layman's analysis will fail miserably...yet..i feel today is trend reversal day of nifty if 5535 hold closing basis.
@KA, OI INCREASED IN PE 5200 ..
i m expecting a trend reversal everyday:)
@Sreyoda, tumio? It seems Manoj bhaiya, Deepak and not Sreyo are all suggesting a bullish outlook... I wish I had the guts and vision to see this coming... hats off to your analysis... I am learning TA now... and reading the initial chapters of this blog... lets hope one day I will also trade with confidence like you guys... good luck..
regards
manu ,
had some m&m if has cracked below support in heavy
probably institutional selling. today also high volumes
and prices falling. yesterday gs came out with a bad
report on it. probably best may be over
Sreyo - On closing basis 5562 not protected i am expecting 5380 :)
To go long, I am still waiting for the flag from Sir and Sujatha madam.
Master,
The pleasure is all mine.
Possible trend reversal if cross 5550 ...
NEW POST DONE.
@jazz ,
among two ABC correction scenarios what is ur preferred
count 5500 or 5300. 6338-5690 648 points.
6182-648 5534 already achieved.
Sujatha Mam, is 5562 the Fib 50% upmove from the low? Pl. reply for learning.
Thanks Sujatha madam,
Actually my analysis goes in this way..
After nifty entered in bull phase from bear phase of 2008, in the last correction, we saw 52 week ema gave support to nifty. It happened time and again when correction went on in bull phase. I think nifty is still in bull phase and it is simply a correction going on. So, it is high probability that this time also trend will reverse from 52 week ema which is at present 5530 now.
regards,
sreyO...
As per me = 5518 -20 zone= will be the reversal.
I did buy at 5529 spot, n coverd at 5558. m waiting
for 5518-20= plus minus a few points again, n will
go aggressively long
nifty made new lows today but vix not yet at its prev highs,can it be considered as positive divergence or more fall is pending till vix test 25-26 range once again
whn all r saying buyy/buyy/buyy= u sellll/selll/selll
whn all r saying selll/selll/selll= u go out n BUY/
BUY/BUY my friend. Contrary view= always TRIUMPHS
Manoj bhaiyaa= hum aapkae saath hae
spot will ROCK above n sustaining 5560
Hope Sujatha mam will not reply for the poor learners like me.
is it a double bottom at 5527?
I m aggressively long at 5521 spot, with futures n
calls. Lets c
upside trgts = 5527-5558-5598-5619
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