Today's action reinforces the fact that when a trend is on, sitting tight..& tight lipped is the most rewarding one. When most of us were busy part booking., it moved down another 100 points from there.
I remember my critic's brutal censoring me when I try to point out a support here..there & so on. He says..just stay with the direction (Macd) ., no supports can hold till market decides to stop and no resistance can stop it till it exhausts itself. We saw the exhaustion on Monday and Tuesday but we are yet to see any "stretched fall".. may be in the hour but not in the day.
Just recap the fall from 6339 to 5690. If this fall is the 3rd wave, it will be bigger but may have more pauses..
30 comments:
I am not sure what you refer to 3rd wave. I don't
see it anyway as india in long term bear market so to me
all down moves will be corrective moves of 3 waves.
6339-5690 A 5690 - 6150 B and then A=C will be end of it.
(of course posisble end!!) That is 4th wave in larger
degree with 5th come to take us above all time high.
MA200 is at 18600 which will be A=C too. I think
perfect entry in bull market.
I saw A/D line for NSE. http://www.icharts.in/breadth-charts.html
Dose thos means A/D line is going down for last 1 yr
when index is going up? Dose anyone have experince with
NSE A/D line?
Thank you sir.
This was last week:
http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/783/nifty.jpg
This may happen next week:
http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/4301/12192110.jpg
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/1563/banknifty.jpg
Prior & Present Analysis
http://www.4shared.com/document/Q_sbkvSl/Wolfe_Wave_India_2.html
woolf - I just saw your next week's possiable chart.
Did that lower trend line hit today? I don't think so.
I see that lower blue trendline may be at level
where C=0.62A in my above wavecount.
Possible?
on BSE it comes around 19400.
@WolfeWaveIndia,
You've been very accurate for quite a few of these rises and falls since August. A pity you don't blog it because I've looked for it a few months ago and then again a weeks ago.:)
@Ilango,
Not as an expert in anything now but a jane of all trades, it looks like any rally will be sold into from here on. Ferocious selling - probably FIIs?
Dear Yoda,
"Ferocious selling - probably FIIs?"
In the worst-worst case scenario even up to 5700 there is no harm because 200 DMA is there.But your point must be taken in a/c because yesterday FII were sellers and DII were buyers,almost for the same amount and previously whenever this situation has come,FII had sold heavily in later sessions.Following are the call writings (only yesterday's additions)
Net intraday addition in 5900 CE 20,63,850,in 6000 CE 29,31,450 ,in 6100 CE 27,95,800,in 6200 CE 29,23,300
The above figures are suggesting hurdles for any up move from here.
So this time too we shall have to wait to understand for their exact stance.
Dear mynac,
You're right about the times when FIIs and DIIs were blocking each other and how it led to deeper corrections.
The FII selling before their tax time could be the same as our April slump here: http://taxes.about.com/od/Federal-Income-Taxes/qt/tax-deadlines.htm
but I also think the problem is in the highest US Tax hikes which went into effect from 1 Jan 2011.
"Higher tax rates on savers and investors. The capital gains tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 20 percent in 2011." from http://www.atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171
Its going to be tough to get them to invest outside the US for a while now.:)
@WolfwaveIndia.
Congrats for yr gr8 analysis.
@ Prashant shah - hats off 2 ur desi analysis :) i had doubt u mentioned 6101 for NIFTY SPOT i don't remember your nifty future "hawala rate" please post once again for "educational purpose". If it's a correction it has to stop here around 5850 levels or else i am very scary about my portfolio. 5532/5380 as per my calculation.
@rahul/shr - hv u traded as per "bearish gartley"?? it has given nice target upto 5956 unfortunately i didn't mint fully as usual :P i forgot totally that one and booked out @ cam weekly level early.
yoda/mynac - all EOD chart analysis showing veryyyy -ve picture :P 8 months weekly charts showing very -ve. :( changes only unchangeable. let us see.
@ RG - this is tooooooooo bad.. u never coming on holidays :( Ok. my pre k.g. starts with your demark's this week range- 6062.02 low 5743.47. Pls. check @ ur end and confirm. I worked out these 2 levels high and low..no head breaking with R1 r2 r3 etc.. pls. post ur views. ellarum segaputhan ennaku pudha kalaru padaranga what's ur "exceptional view" apart from technical
Dear Sujatha,
On Monday it will be very interesting to see whether Bulls shall able to hold Nifty above weekly low ema or not?At present even weekly JNSR 5957 looks far away from current closing,but market has always knack to surprise every one.Considering the close above 5900,From one angle Addition of 20lac plus O.I. in 5900 CE & highest O.I. with addition of 12 lac plus O.I. in 5800 PE is hopeful for Bulls but considering the fall,the huge CE writing from 62 to 5900 CE's & negative U.S.cues are fearful too.Monday morning will be the answer for the same so till,let us wait
@ Yash,
I'm not at all an expert on EW and use it as a tool, only if it has any value to my trades. As you are aware, any two or more individuals can have different views and hence I avoid getting into "count disputes". Any rigidity on our parts will only damage our wealth.
However, the expertise to "extract maximum from EW" with its directions by combining them with the "Classic Technical Analysis" is my forte.
I would change the direction of the trade when I see compelling patterns/TA/ prices as I have found that each change of direction fetches more than 100 points.
The above EW chart was posted some days ago. VIX chart too was posted few days ago. The prices struggled @ 6175 inspite of +ve cues of world markets then on. Now the fall has all the makings of a 3rd wave. Whether it is a big 3rd wave or small 3rd wave, only time will tell. In either case, sizeable moves are possible. I arrive at such conclusions only after studying index heavy weights which have confirmed. Last time it was done when index was at 6300+ and it was conveyed to everyone that heavy weights are quite heavy to carry on up and load shedding is overdue.
I use EW at extreme points of markets' exhaustion and capitulations even though the Tech.table continues to be in the green or Red at such respective overbought/ oversold junctures.
hi
hi guys
sir - good afternoon :) happy to see u on holidays too :) ur msg. on friday "nail on my head" hereafter will avoid the counter trades.
mynac - as i said earlier, really i am scratching my head "how u r posting simply the sensitive issues" . thanks. for additional boost for "dehydrated bulls " is = exactly sitting on monthly cam short breakout level(5900) 38.2% fibo retracement 5883 done (very marginally protected) 5895 is 3 months LBB level. really very interesting. but sleepless nights for me becoz of portfolio :P 5914 89 ema daily. started watching 1-3 months these BB levels giving me good gains. 5850 should hold or else nifty gaya this is 50% level from 4700 levels. All the charts and analysists are screaming for a DOWN :P home work done but what is the use if at all i get scared while trading?? at this juncture
The comment of US taxes above is totally wrong. Taxes
are not going HIGHER in 2011. Congress passed 2 yr extention
for bush tax cuts. That article reference is old when
they were just suggesting what will happen if tax cut is
not extended.
So don't worry about US money not flowing into emerging
markets. It will. This is just profit booking for FII
of their last year's rise.
Not sure about Sujata's comment of all charts are screaming
for DOWN. We are still above 200dma so not sure what
is so much DOWN pressure. Tagging 200 DMA is very common
in good bull market. Even if this is not bull market now
then also it should get decent bounce at or just below
200 DMA first and then in second attempt it will break
through. Keep eye on this count -
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s205800679]&disp=O
I am not saying he is always right but he will switch sooner
than later if his count is going wrong.
Not sure why 5850 should hold. how this is 50% of rise from 4700?
I guess this
is assuming 6339 is some kind of 5th wave high. But what if its
3rd wave high with 4th going on and 5th to come yet.
5750 or so is where C = 0.62 A if this ABC of 4th wave. Still above
200dma. A=C will just below 200dma. in ABC A is 5 wave B 3 wave
and C 5 wave affiar possible. So this can be 3rd in C.
If you look at from mid 2003 when real up break out started, it always goes back to 200dma
twice a calender year. 4700 is much below 200dma. even we are
going there, at least once there will be rally back to 200dma after its broken.
one thing to remeber is shorting in bull market is much less
rewarding than making money on long side. One should keep buying
dip till it stops working. I just wanted to post this
becuase many people think shorting is exciting way to make
money as you get feeling that you are making money in both down
and up market but also remeber same shorts is fuel for upmoves.
@ Yash - good guts at this juncture. :) congrats. funny things hv u noticed?? - indian mkts not taking cues from "GLOBAL NOWADAYS" this week they raised upto 2% also, v fall.. if they fall, we will fall more that is the worry + bearish engulfing candle (in nov it gave nearly 300 points)in weekly charts (many times charts too proved wrong) market is supreme. i don't find NSE CHARTS in that. Can you please guide me how to watch the "individual stock charts" in stock charts.com i am unable to find SYMBOLS of our stocks. 200 dma also little far from here na?? as a small investor-cum-trader it's bad na? I always would like to trade 'THE NOW POSITION". wants to "live in present"
I am also with your bull market view (upto 2013 i believe) thing is how we are protecting the LOW. advance "sugar ghee" to you if market raise from here.
have a good day.
Dear Illango.. as per yr charts, it is evident we are heading towards 5380 innear future.. which happens to 61% of the fall from double top at 6358.. time frame .. maybe 2 weeks if a sharp surgical knife is used oe else 4 weeks if whip saw is used..hsratti. ( incidently.. i am a layaman silently observing your charts and reading a lot in yur blog)
5850
5400
5200
is what i can see on the charts.
not much upside.
Great stuff going there, Sir.
would love to come in intraday sometime and participate..
[work woes ;(]
Ps:-
could you help me set up an intraday feed for ami please?
am charting with make-do data..
@ yash..
http://timamo.blogspot.com/
for the A/D analysis..
SS calls it mkt generated data
;)
Pranams,
NN
nifty historical p/e on 28 dec 2010 -23.93
nifty close on that date 5996
nifty eps - 250
nifty p/e on 27 oct 2008 10.68
assuming there is no degrowth
of earnings in next bear market where nifty can go
max-10.68*250=2670
hope it helps
@sujatha - I never said market bottomed. The day like friday
will need one more lower low. The fast train can't be stopped
at once. It applied for both sides. So big day down or up,
always follows soon by lower low or higher high. That is how
normally big day become some kind of 3rd wave with 5th to
follow. But I thought you were talking very berish and
some people may just keep shorting it.
Normally trend changes when results come. So up becomes down,
and down becomes up. Trend can change for longer time or
shorter time. Since results are going to come soon and we
are going down we may bottom around results. US markets may do
reverse as they are up now.
If your longer term view is bullish that means you should
try to find down moves correctives means 3 wave affiar.
So you first establish primary trend which I think its up.
So then down moves from 6339 should be 3 wave affiar ABC
Thats why I wrote calculations above. Tony C is also tracking
same. Then first C = 0.62A .. then if that breaks then C=A.
interestinly 200dma is at C=A. How you play it is one's choice.
I say no shorting in bull market. That means buy dips only at points
like C=0.62A , C=A, 200dma. Becuase in bull market buy long mistake
will be rectified evntally but that is not case if you are shorting
in bull market. You may not reach same down level again for months.
stockcharts.com dose not have nse and individual stocks.
Barcharts.com has nse as well as indiavidual stocks.
you can also add as much as parameters in barcharts.com
but all is eod for indian scripts. no intraday.
@niftynikhil - thanks for link.
i think there is gap around 5600 which is around 200dma too.
that may be stopage point.
I am sure you know that stock market is little brother
of bond market. The bond market is just huge. This time
stock bull is going end becuase of bond market collaps
first. We may saw firat glance after US QE2 was put in
place. Instade of bond yeilds going down they went up sharply.
Always keep watch on bond market.
Finally there is nothing like gold/silver. We indian love
it. 10-20% money in precious metals is must.
Gold's bull market target is somehwre near at least 3500+USD
Looks scary ?? 100 yrs shows dow/gold ratio will come close to 1
when gold will peak and dow will bottomto end secular bull of gold
and secular bear of dow. Now make calculation and see where dow/gold ration will be 1
or at least 2.
@ Yash - thank you very much for the link and explanation.
good night.
@Yash,
The article on higher taxes did look like an anti-Obama rant, but it had the most extensive list of all the affectees, so posted it.
FII inflows have changed our markets to such an extent that I don't think we can do without it. Its a relief to know the deadline's been postponed and we aren't falling into a bear market ... yet.:)
ewi has called 5th wave top at 6350 they are counting now 5waves down for A wave
according to them we have completed wave 1 of wave 3 bull run and now wave 2 is going on
i we go by ew guidlines we shld look for wave 2 to go near wave 4 low of prevoius degree which is at 4786
pls visit this link
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/01/07/Currying-Favor-in-Asian-Markets.aspx
@dr.kamlesh - EWI is wrong several times in this rally.
also not sure where you see wave 1 of wave 3 bull run as I see
big 5 at top of 6339. I don't think we are ready for this larger wave 2 yet.
It may happen after all time high is achieved later this year.
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