Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
72 comments:
Reliance Industries Support levels: CLICK HERE
Priya Sujeet Bhaiya!
Aap mere puraane msgs dekh lijiye, mai positional trade humesha closing basis ke stop loss par karta hoon. Intraday kuch bhi ho par Bull-Bear ki strength closing se hi pata chalti hai kyonki len-den usi level se hota hai. Ril, Tisco, HLL, Ongc, Sbi sabhi me buying start ho gayi hai lower levels se....intra day Nifty apne aaj ke moving avg ke upar trade karne lagi hai.
Manoj
Sir & Family..
Gm..
thanx sir for the bullish count too..
i will tell you one thing sir those holding
portfolios will always be bullish by heart
hope rv and jazz..listening..
one more thing "1313 Jan 2011 1187 Feb 2011 (9% correction)"""
if it so then "jab ham jawan honge(feb2011)..
tab ham khan honge 4500""
and last thing :
i was not able 2 hold my nerves (after 7 years)and lost 50 %.. n trading..
25 % portfolio down..left with 25 % ..
i m not a good trader..stopped trading..
i m good at investing..
was not able to take two minds together..young age..easy money..
became a victim..
gm sir and all friends:)
@ Manu,
"Stick to the one that comes naturally to you - investing".
For excitement, fish market is there :)
Good news for Investors ..curruntley we r trading 21 P\E..(price to Earing).. at 31 aug 2010 nifty was close5400 that time PE was 22.73 ..today is 21 bec of qurty result if count another 3 qurters so we trading as of now with forward PE JUST 16-17... SO MY VIEW ITS V GOOD BUY for investores ..thanxs
can somebody tell me how to trade on weekly-JNSAR, as of now @10am weekly SAR is 5826...
suppose today ( theoritically ) if NIFTY hits 5826 , then i will take long.. what will be JNSAR for that weekly long .... should i wait for next day or next week closing JNSAR...
sir ,
what is the significance of 5655?
thnx sir..
now when i ever i look at "D" face it makes me fell that
what a blunder i hav done..and sir its very difficult
to have an investor mind ( hawkin cooker @ 100 and punj lloyd @ 260)
still holding and trading mind working together..
may be it was personal problem..any body else face same issue
Reposting
GM
@Yoda;
This has referrence to your querry to Prashant,I m sharing my observations both on ATP and HAWAL.
Take hawala and ATP as Pivots.In 99% of the cases (baring exceptionalcircumstances)any sript or index invariably visits hawala/Atp during its monthly/daily journey.
Hawala is a monthly Pivot ATP is a daily Pivot.
You can use this unwritten law if you r caugth on the wrong foot anytime.Meaning that if a security is in an uptrend and you have shorted it and even then it goes on rising wait patiently till EOD u would mostly get to reverse your position near ATP of that day
EG. If a particlar sript's trading range is 20Rs. /day and its price is 160 rs.during the previous days happenings or some news u might have heard you choose to short this script early in the day when it touched 172/ .Note the ATP of this script it could be 171/.But whatever u have heard turns out to be false and the script runsaway to 184/.The ATP would have risen to 176 at that time, you can patiently wait without being panicked 99/100% you will get to cut down your losses as during the day the scrit rates will invariably visit 176 the new ATP+/-1re.This will help to minima=ise your losses. You can also use this for a entry in a particular stock/index ,if you want to go long and have missed the chance earlier in the day.
The same stands for hawala once a month the index/script will surely visit the HAWALA or somewhere near it before deciding the next course.
These are ofcourse very crude methods but still they are the basic and can help you when u donot have any means to calculate all the moving averages.
if you take today eg. on nifty currently it's ATP is 5460 eventhough it has traded from 5484-5438 meaning most of the trade at this time are aroud 5460 so today if the ATP falls down significantly from here/Rises from here we can know that a downside is still ther and if if it moves higher we know that downside is arrested for now.
January 31, 2011 10:20 AM
manu sir,
I am also with you on the same boat. I have also lost substantially in trading and now even though I understand the market direction but fear to venture into trading of thinking if i loose whatever is left
@ PS,
5655 is the 61.8% retracement of the last fall from 5801 to 5416. If it is in the steep iii of 3rd, it should not retrace so much. Hence...
@Bhavan, Thanks for provinding the importance of HAWALA/ATP time again with values, which is very helpful and educative. I believe the ATP mentioned above is for NF.
wah bhavan wah wah// mane vachata vachata 10 min lagi gayeee.. but u r v much rite keep it up:) one thing also take prev day ATP ALSO ..eg.. prevday nifty ATP is 5550 so nifty try to touch of ATP ABOUT 50% 75% OR 100% BEYOND THAT ITS confaram bull
@Vidya;
On your querry to Sir regarding the no. of lots u wanted to trade.Firstly the risk u can manage is the deciding factor for how many lots u can trade.
Secondly not every JNSAR gives this exceptional rewards ,so it is prudent to part book the profit.
For 1/2 0r 1/3 of your lots u can book at the first resistances as per tech table the next you can put TSL trailing stoplosses every day. Book them when the index closes above HLEMA/HHEMA depending when u r short /long this will give u a fair chance to milk the most .If you r not able to keep a regular watch during the daytime on hourlies take your decisions on LMMA?HEMAS based on the premarket views.
@ Manu,
If you are able to sense overbought conditions of a stock that is part of your portfolio using TA or years of your experience, "Part booking" would lets you take away some profit and you will be able to re-enter that stock after few weeks or months. This could be termed as "Your trading income".
Few weeks back, we suggested the "Exhaustion in heavy weights using weekly negative divergences" in stockwealth blog and many of those heavy weights have shed more than 10-15% of their value.
That 10-15% would qualify as your "Trading income" while your portfolio will return back to the original position. It requires patience as well as timely action.
JSK Prashant,But this is based on our deshi knowledge .
Aa to aapna gamdawala paan kari jaane
thank u sir,
nice write up bhavan.
@manu
try some simple strategies of trading like jnsar/j10 sar/
50 sma/ema sar. follow them as religion. inshaallah u may
recoup all .
manu ji.... i think probleum is we r not following any 1 study if u follow 1 study then u cant stuck ..like EG.. if u follow 200 day SMA then u never stuck or if u follow only JNSAR THEN U NEVER STUCK ... BUT FOLLOW ONLY 1 STUDY SO u cant confuse about onthers study like EW OR TRAND LINE... its my expriance .. i follow only HAWALA ATP AND JNSAR
@manoj bhaiyaa= spot agar 5453, and future= 5480 paar
gayaa= toh jai ho !!!!sustain honaa chaiyae par
jor lagaao manoj bhaiyaa
@Prabhakar ATP /Hawala is the price at which the security is traded taking vol.into cosideration.(Average traded price)
Manu Bhaiya ji!
Humare ek mitra 550 Rs. me Punj Lloyd 2008 se liye baithe hain par fir bhi profit me hain, Kyonki jaise hi Punj ne important level break kiye they 2008 me..maine jabardasti unka Future me short karke hedge karwa diya tha..Bhagwaan ki badi kripa hai un par aur har mahine badla kha rahe hain.
Manoj
Sorry to answer the original querry atp will be only of trade assest and in this case it will be NF the NS I believe has VWAP EOD
I totally agree with Prashant that we should stick to any one metod religiouly.Having knowledge of other methods may help u when u are in differnt set of circunstances
Deepak Bhaiya!
Mast rahiye..Nifty dheere dheere apne kadam majbooti ki taraf bada rahi hai. Agar Bullish candle banani hai to morning me down rakh kar clsoing me banana aasaan rahta hai operator ko.
Manoj
Dear Manu,
As PS says, u have to try SAR + ORB. Just for the N50 atleast - or Sir's file as u feel. Once Sir has announced the trend, keep looking for the Short/Long opportunity based on ORB - enough food.
Hi PS : WWI has again mapped an upward target. Cud u check it? Our Dear Grizzly (RV) has differed vehemently. Any chance for the bulls to breath?
thnx sir..ps..prashant..
i hv never made a loss in trading
on annuallized bases ever till nov 2010..
some insider news ..laallach took all away..
biggest mistake was pledging of portfolio
and over levereged positions..
i can even say more than over lvrgd..
i think i had blessing f my father and was keeping a hedge
Bhavan : JSK & GM.
I know u and Prashant have covered this part. But just a few lines on where to get Hawala/ATP for individual stocks please.
rg sir,
tried to read wwi analysis but i think
its a closed group(his google group)
if this is a 5 wave down(from 6338)
we wont touch 5690 now.
if this is a 3 wave down we might rally
after some fall. did a detailed analysis
at ojn also this weekend
@ prashant shah
yes, you are absolutely right. there are so many trading techniques and each has both good as well as bad sides. And looking to only bad sides many a times traders use to keep changing his trading adopted trading technique frequently and in results get nothing. But as Master insists, if the trader stick to any one technique and try to nullify the bad sides by using other tools, i do not think he should go on changing his trading style very ofter. Instead of digging too much for so many trading technique, one should dig only one and try to find out errors in his own trading for each tranaction and learn therefrom.
-gauresh59
@Manu and all
NEVER EVER put portfolios in a pledged a/c (telling from experience)because not all scripts run unidirectionally specially when u r trading on margins/futures this will eat up your base.If atall u wnat to trade futures trade it against cash i.e deposit cash in your trading a/c and get amargin against it
Thank you PS.
@RG JSK
RG this are crude knowledges which we get from experienced people in the trading circles but if you can specify your querry i will be able to answer most of them (at my convenience)but no books are available, or I am not aware of if any books are there. I have got your point but it will take sometime for me to frame it rightly but I will get back to you.
goodmorning ilango sir and blog mates,
In NS, a 3 wave move looks near completion. Selling opportunity?
In 5 minutes chart.
sir , some days ago , you explained below5400 bearish,
today low spot 5416, shall we expect reversal
in market
PS, Bhavan,
From where to get the ATP's on daily basis and how to get the settlement (hawala) rate from NSE site.
Sunil
gauresh... there is always chance of confusing about lots of study ..thats why i follow only 1-2 simple techniques like JNSAR and hawala for long trade and trading i follow only ATP OF prev day... if some time i was wrong then i squre off in a loss so u get out of da trade and think or serch new script bec now u fresh mind ..its v simple as par my knowlage...
@RG sorry sorry you are asking for the daily rates then u get the ATP on the ODIN for that particular date.I have not back checked on VWAP but according to Prashant ATP=VWAP. If you donot have a terminal simply ask your dealer with whom u trade on the phone when you place ypur orders.And make a point to ask the dealer at 3.40 daily this i did invariably when i did not have a computer n net.For hawala go to the individual future stocks n search it or if u are into astock presently note the current month future closing on the day of rollover
i guess nifty can be shorted in 5470-80 ns range for trgts of 5454-5416
Good morning Sir and friends.
Manu, I am also with you in same boat. Only difference I do not build my portfolio on leverage. And since I am new to trading and do not have that winning mentality yet doing small trades only via Nifty options (trade initiated on the long side only).
I too feel very bad because I listened to some foolish advice and gave away most of my winning stocks in June 2009. After that the same shares have more than doubled in price.
Thanks Bhavan. My query is whether the ATP is available daily and Hawala monthly for each of the stock. If yes the source. Thanks in advance. I understand there is no literature on this method and it is a ballard.
Sir:
Is there any sign of reversal, or can i sell at this price? please confirm.
thanks,
@ ilango sir? i asked a doubt sir
Ilango sir, plz give some idea about wave count??which subwave of this ist of 3RD wave going on??
Thanks
Ilan Kaalai - the day is not over. Still friends are aiming for Short with downside targets. Sir said below "5400" means let it happen... he also said above 56?? only positive.
Buzz bhai Namaskaar!
Kya kahte ho ab bhaiya, Morng me 5430 wali ne 45 points to intraday hi de diye aur baaki shaam tak dekhte hain kya hota hai? Waise ab maine apni position ki trading start kar di hai aur morng 5430 wali me se 50% 5473 spot par book kar li hai, agar fir down mili to Buy karunga nahi to bachi huyi se hi match khelunga. Agar us time par aapke kahne se short khel jata to bhaiya aaj mai bhi clean bold ho hata...aapki kitni short hai???? Bata jarur dena bhaiya ji pls..
Manoj
@RG
Our posts crossed but did you get the answer?
Yes Dear Bhavan. Thank you.
@RG
Any comment on vol. till now?I feel it is unusally high though I do not check this regularly currently
@ manoj bhaiyaa= hehehehehehehehe.kyaa bolae aaap
@Manojbhaiya, aab kya bole!!
Maine 5800 mein short open kiya tha jo maine friday ko hi close kar diya tha... abhi soch raha hun ki wapis short open karun ki long karun.. kuch samajh mein nahin aa raha hai... as per my understanding of the TT, I should be openning/holding to shorts. Aapke pas aisa kya tool hai jo aap istemal karte hai? Haan 5430 pe buy karna was a wise thing to do.
Regards,
@stock4sure, Please do not short nifty @this level. EOD
closing may be at 5550 (Plus Minus 10 points)
@manoj bhaiyaa= 5482 is intraday 5EMa=covrd my longs
at 5478. will enter above 5490 again
Bhavan - volumes look regular - normally check at EOD only. What is your feel? Upside possible?
Buzz bhai!
Ye to Nainsaafi hai hum bhaiyo ke sath, aap 5800 me short they aur hum me se kisi ko ishara bhi nahi kiya...fir aap is family ko kuch samajhte hi nahi ya aap mujhse naaraaj hain. Maine to apna trade jor se sabko bataya tha apne closing stop loss ke sath..aisa julm na karo Buzz bhai..kuch hum sabko bhi kama lene do Anndata.
Manoj
Yes the premarket first left side level resisted and reverted also the reversion is in the early part of the trading session but master is maintaining mum till now
Deepak Bhai!
Maine bhi aaj wali 50% 5473 par kaat di hai, aur 30-40 points down me fir buy karunga...Thank u bhaiya ji
Manoj
What was that?
@manoj bhaiyaa= bought again at 5452= s1 intraday
with a 5 point sloss
sloss hit= no worries= was risky anyways
@Manojbhaiya, aisa nahin hai.
to be honest with you, I am probably the dumbest when it comes to trading and so all I do is read the comments of people here... moreover I am learning from all of you... Regarding going short at 5800, as far as I think, I must have informed it here... I remember someone asking me... probably Deepak and I told that I've shorted from 5800 levels on RBI meeting day. Maaf kar dijiye agar main bhul gaya... waise did you see the downfall now :) Nifty back to 5440 kind of levels...
Regards,
Why Suj. missing ?VIPs back?
Buzz bhai!
Is up-down se to trader ko faayda hi hota hai aur isi up-down ki vajah se jo maine 5473 par bechi thi wo 5430 ke aas paas fir lena chahta hoon...le loon bhaiya ji ya nahi?? Ab to aapke sone ka time ho raha hoga..so fir aap batayenge nahi.
Manoj
Ilango how is our dear R.P now ?
Possible fast fall setup 5 and 21 ema those who are long careful.
@Manojbhaiya,
main already bistar mein ghus gaya hun :) Nifty kafi interesting ho gaya hai... aise time pe lagta hai ki desh mein rehne se kafi benefit hota hai... I can give more time to trading.. waise dollar rates dekhiye.. guess its time to send some money back home.. :) already 46 ho gaya hai, I'm expecting 47-48 kind of levels... kya lagta hai aapko, aayega wahan tak? Aur nifty ke bare mein kya vichar hai aapke.. main aur aadhe ghante tak jaga huwa hun...
Regards,
NEW POST DONE.
@buzz and @manoj bhaiya= look out for 5403 = give it
10-12 points lower. 5403 is 15EMA MONTHLY BASIS
@manoj bhaiya= i m long again at 5451.Res at 5473 n
5480. Above 5480 sustaining= 5540 for sure=
at 5540= 5SMA and pivot is there= will act as resisten
ce
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