Friday, October 12, 2012

Nifty Intraday Update-III


67 comments:

Prabakar said...

NIFTY OPTIDX Open Interest at 2 -> CLICK HERE

A J said...

@discipline focus
Thanks Focus ji, sure I agree. Did he (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) give any figure, how many black swan events one can get in one decade or so?
JNSAR will usually keep you in the direction of black swan event mostly. JNSAR = Mother swan, and the black swan follows :D
I can remember three such events Jan 08, Oct 08, May 09. I think JNSAR would have worked in our favor during these events. However we got "this gift" a little late from Ilango. Will be handy in future :D Has Mr Taleb given any data or frequency about black swan? Cheers.

DAKSHIT PATEL said...

looks like mind blowing rally will take place. Jakarta composite and Karachi markets are keep making new highs. dont remain short. personally guts feeling

Nifty Simba said...

Rising wedge behaving well :))))

shriram said...

--> back

Trading below Dev. DEMA & WkHiEMA, can seek out DLoEMA @ 5663 , for support ....

Parimal said...

2.40 effect coming

mynac said...

Afternoon Everybody...

anmpatel said...

@master
for this hour what is the channel support?

Abhi said...

Sir, can we convert conservative into sell now ? Or should we wait for today's close ?

Atharva said...

Good afternoon to all : Reaching to level where conservative trade is initiated ..Master @ do you give more weightage to JNSAR trade or conservative trades...Can I buy based on conservative trade Nr 5665-70 with sl of 5655 or shld avoid since JNSAR is short

Ilango said...

Golden ratio retrace of 5637 to 5725 comes @ 5671.

80% @ 5655.(Conservative SL)

Piyush Sharda said...

@anuj,

suppose if he wud have given a fig. wud u trust that??

chetas said...

ILANGO JI,

is there a falling wedge in intraday Nifty,

Sujatha said...

TA NOVICE - mm..bubka's stick is weak?? :( only the support holding..so not able to jump "aaradya" came n the morning as dadaji s busy still. still chances r open for "chota bull" (as per me)

yday's NF candle is huge so bit doubt of more downside possibility like breaking of 650/600 immediately.680/94 will not give up easily SPOT 702 closing @ EOD is fine but mkt will not behave good it's more adament than me:D

PS : Mkt is waiting for my SL to eat and digest or me escape @ EOD?? shhhhh



Parimal said...

For NF day chart 20Dma comes to 5677 -- that is same as middle BB

anmpatel said...

@master
re-posted

for this hour what is the channel support?

Atharva said...

8 EMA : 34 EMA fast fall 60 tf...

Atharva said...

Oh GOd what to do..Conservative long JN sar short Fast fall set ...confused..staying away..

Ilango said...

@ anmpatel,

Haven't I marked it in the chart...?

Atharva said...

PSC closed gave whipsaw as anticipated closed long once TSL hit @ 5700 at opening gap down...

Atharva said...

HRLy 89 ema is holding

anmpatel said...

@master
ok sir got it.
5679
sorry to disturb.

Ilango said...

Today's market clue would be from the week T/F:

Presently it is suggesting of a close below WHema(5699) which would mean "loss of upward momentum" & a sell on rise mode in week T/F, seeking Wema & WLEma in the coming days from WHEma or +20-40 pts.

shriram said...

@ ilango ji,

below 5655 , view remains that the move shud stop @ 5585-5610 ??

A J said...

@Piyush
:) yes of course, because I have a fair idea about JNSAR or any other trend following system. However Focus ji performance is very good. If I start to trade JNSAR from from tomorrow my performance will not be the same as his. That's with every other trader.

I think there was this experiment that was done, where people were given a particular system to trade and each ended with different performance. This difference is due to the effect of trading psychology( i.e discipline and focus :D) on a trader.

Before I trade JNSAR or any other system, I need to backtest the way I would trade it just the way Focus ji got the confidence to trade it :)
The data is a bit less just 30 trades (6 month), but in this period you have a maximum drawdown of just -88 point with got covered with the next 113 point profit in October 2011 :D

Ilango said...

@ Abhi,

Retracing beyond 61.8% isn't a good sign.

Break of the small sideways channel @ 5679 suggests of more weakness to follow.

shriram said...

@ max , wot wud be the outer limit for this corrective, sir ?

prahalad said...

discipline focus,

you summarised them well. i wish to share another link which i reached from anuj's blog..

http://assortz.blogspot.in/2012/01/sar-number-math-not-myth-traders-view.html

prahalad said...

Anuj,

Good discussion. It is true that system is merely a ship and it’s upto captain who sails it..Even the turtles didn’t come up with similar results. And very importantly, one day your system can also fail for some period when market dynamics change..but a trader must prepare himself to pass that phase with lesser struggle.. Ilango ji that’s why not only settling with EW, TT or any specific system but keeps his research going with every study whenever he gets a insight..in this market, one can never stop and say that voila! I found my system and tomorrow is my day!

Ilango said...

@ shriram,

Below 5655 & 5637, 5567(34DEma) or 5510(50%) is likely.

And week trend reverses, it could be more too.

bb said...

Ilango, is Bharti a sell below 260, please throw some light.

satheesh said...

Today has been a day between Day LEMA and Day HEMA also between 10 DMA and 20 DMA.

anmpatel said...

@shriram
can you able to tell me at which price 5Eema will turn down?

Ilango said...

@ bb,

Yes. It looks like it.

I would prefer to trade based on retracements.

For eg: Sell @ 61.8% with 80% as SL.(The best)

A J said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Nilesh Patil said...

week candle BERISH ENGULFING

@Sujatha sis,
What is your recipe for next Week?

Piyush Sharda said...

@anuj i just meant that i feel no one can say how many black swans expected. if someone said i'll have difficulty in relying. i feel most trend following systems whether jnsar/10sma/10ema/2-3 day high/20 sma/ema will give profits. but winning trade %age is less

A J said...

@Prahalad ji
Can't disagree with you as you are showing your doley sholey :D

http://101exercises.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/bicep-develop.gif

Prithvi Yashashvi said...

@Master

Can we exit from convervative trade??

Please reply

sushil said...

The European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for its historic role in uniting the continent, as it struggles to resolve its debt crisis.

shriram said...

right sir, tks :-)

TAnovice said...

Sujatha ji, ur Chita bull seems to hv got stuck in chennai traffic and may not be able to get to the mkts before closure and 80/94 are also not relenting... Hope mr bubka and amit ji get free and fit for early next week else maybe too late.. What say??

prahalad said...

Anuji,

:) my son selected that profile for me.. he wants me to be doley sholey

bizagra said...

Ilango sir..80%(5655) taken as SL..this is when abc is complete. If only a is done ...b can be flat or irregular also??m i right??thx

shriram said...

Suja : Y bubka (vault), NS can even do a Bolt (sprint) na ...

Is gap-up, mandatory for bulls ?? ;-)

anmpatel said...

can anyone know RIL result on monday is pre-market or post-market?
thanks.

discipline focus said...

@AJ,

actually thats what NNT preaches :), that past past performance/models have no role in future

eg. The CDO's created in 2002-2007 all relied on past historical default rates >>while in the crisis of 2008 the kind of defaults we saw>>>>by gaussian-computation can happen only once in 475 million years :D

According to him, one can't predict anything>>and I find similarities to it in JNSAR and Ilango's views of following rather predicting. So the inference is basically....follow a system, but be prepared for anything and for that I feel two ways can work-

1) decrease the leverage, i.e. trade for a contract value of 40-60%, so that even a 20% gap-up/down dosn't throws you out of market

2) Use options 300-400 points strike away from JNSAR.

p.s.-It depends on priorities --Like I believe in Shooting for longevity (staying power)...i.e. even the least probable outcome, shouldn't throw us out of markets

shriram said...

dear ANMP,

any close < 5698 will turn down 5DEMA...

DZIRE said...

@ anmpatel

RIL declares its results in the evening around 5 pm.

jay shah said...

goodbye dear sir, all my seniors and freinds happy weekend to one and all

Prithvi Yashashvi said...

Can anyoe tell me ,

Conservative trade carry forward or closed

anmpatel said...

@shriram
i was aking about WEEKLY 5 ema

A J said...

@Piyush
Yes you are right, trend systems will generally have less winning trade percentage (less than 50% i.e out of 10 trades you will have 5 or less than 5 winning trades) but they will have better risk to reward ratio, more than 2 times win to loss (i.e if you are losing 50 points you will win more than 100 points) If you are not getting these results, change the market that you are trading.

However the data that Focus ji has backtest is quite exceptional. 2409 win points, 281 loss points, winning trades 18, losing trades 12 total trades 30, 2128 total points win, in 6 months. This data has best of both the worlds ie good win ratio and favorable risk to reward ratio. Basic essence of JNSAR is cut your losses short and let your profits run. But do your own due diligence :) I don't have any idea about black swan event that's why asked Focus ji as he follows Mr Taleb.

satheesh said...

@ prithvi Y,

Conservative remains a Buy
JNSAR remains SELL
option to choose is yours

Ilango said...

@ Prithvi Yashashvi ,

When in doubt, Stay out.

Yash and Dhan said...

Sau baat ki ek baat. JNSAR short. Good bye.

shriram said...

@ ANMP,

Wk EMA wud be 5626 .. ruled out now!

Prithvi Yashashvi said...

I Choose master hard work conservative trade.

Stay with long.

Jo hoga woh dekha jayega.........

Piyush Sharda said...

@anuj,
i agree with ur observation of winning percentage.

mynac said...

श्रीराम,
बुल्स ,शिळ्या कढीला आणून-आणून किती ऊत आणणार ? कधी तरी तिला "तार" ही येणारच :) नाही का?

Nilesh Patil said...

प्रिय मयंकभाऊ,
तार मोठी येउदे

A J said...

@Discipline focus
Yes agree with your thoughts.
Even I want to reduce leverage in future, will probably settle down with value investing, no leverage, no stop loss just dividends and capital appreciation :D

shriram said...

Dear mynac,

Thodi sahanubhuti bulls na dakhava ho ;-)

mynac said...

निलेश,
आता पातेलं नक्की खाली उतरवून ठेवलंय असं आजच्या वरून दिसतंय तरं...त्या मुळे बघू कि नुसती तार येतीये का पार आंबट वास सुटून जीव हैराण करणार आहे ते ? :) मला व्यक्तीशः तरं आंबट वास सुटलेला आवडेल :) आता ह्या वर मला कुणी आंबट शौकीन म्हटले तरी बेहत्तर :):):)

srsexpert said...

anmpatel sir if u know can u pls tel me the timings of commodity market is it till 11.30 pm

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