Friday, October 12, 2012

Nifty Intraday Update-II


48 comments:

shriram said...

Reposting:-

Mynac,

PRICE-SSTO / RSI "inter-play" var apule kaay "mat" ahe ...

kadhi pahata ani kase? Tumcha "view" Savistar sanga, covering both Trending as well as cyclic phases :-)

Prabakar said...

NIFTY OPTIDX Open Interest at 12 -> CLICK HERE

Parimal said...

Several failed attempts to stick its nose above 34hrsma--RIL future stock

satheesh said...

Sir a query,

Fast rise set up between 5 and 10 EMA whereas there is a fast fall set up between 5 and 10 SMA.
5 EMA-5,697 10 ema-5,688
5 SMA - 5691 10 SMA -5708.

Which one can be relied upon?


Parimal said...

Industrial growth slows to 2.7% in August.
India's industrial production rose by a higher-than-expected 2.7% in August from a year earlier, after contracting in July.

Ilango said...

@ satheesh,

For Fast Rise & Fast fall strategies, 5 & 10 period s are too close.

5 & 20 or
10 & 30 or
20 & 50 or
50 & 200 are preferable.

In Hour T/F,

7 & 21
21 & 55 are preferable.

More the distance, lesser the whipsaw.

Smita said...

61.8% of , rise from 5659- 5725 comes to 5684.

Yash and Dhan said...

JNSAR again reversed @ 5694 !!

STOCK4SURE said...

now a bullish WW developing in BN 5 min charts
trgt 11470 in next 60-90min

Kiran said...

Premium reduced to 12/13

STOCK4SURE said...

formation of handle inmaking in BN cup and handle pattern
break abv 11530 may give sharp 280 points
can HDFC result will be trigger
and axis and sbi result will lend support
11340 below this view will be negated

discipline focus said...

Confessions of a Serial JNSAR trader(1 year and counting, can be used for any trend follwing system, SMA,EMA)-

1.)Any trend following system, works on the basis of the primary market trend. If market trend is neutral/non-confirmatory/doji.The system is bound to give you whipsaws(trades on both sides resulting in marginal-gain/loss)


2)Before comitting and believing in a system>>>you need to confirm and believe in something else>>>>>even before you come to the marketto trade>>>you should be well capitalized>>>well capitalizing can mean different thing for different people, Ideal ratio for trader world over is between 40-60% of contract value
i.e. if you have anywhere between rs1lakh-1.5lakh = trade 1 lot( depends on nifty value, just calculate on basis of that)

3)Any trend following system is not going to give you the"tops" and "bottoms", but will definitely let you capture 60-80% of a required move.

4)If you are following a system>>>TAKE ALL THE TRADES>>> don't choose between them (as you or no-one) knows which trade will be profitable/loss making.

5.)Don't confuse with other Indicators>>>RSI,MACD,SCHO.,BOLLINGER while taking trades>>>>use them after you have spent some time in markets and that too for profit booking, partial buying, re-buying. Not with your main system (in this case JNSAR) Coz its highly unlikely any trend following system will give you a buy immediately after RSI has entered 10-20 or sell signal between 80-90.As these system only generate a trade after the trend is in place "lagging indicator".

5) Don't look into your p&L balance while taking a trade>>thats another reason that makes you biased>>Just think that if you make rs20000 in a business>>>> the 3000-4000rs loss should be taken as business expense

NOW COMING TO PROFITABILITY FACTOR>>>>>>>>

Lets say you trade with 50% contract value>>> i.e. 2500-2800 nifty points reserve or 125000-150000rs. for a nifty lot at current prices.

On an average for last year JNSAR has given 270-310 points a month (depending upon month,whipsaws etc.and stoplosess).Remember I am talking about average in some months it has given 600 points while in one 170 points. Till yet I have not encountered a negative month.

assuming you make 250 points a month >>>on one lot you are making rs.12500>>>>for your total capital of rs.125000-150000 >>you have made nearly 10% on your capital in a month.

Even if you delayed or made few small mistakes in execution>>>your net gain would still come to 100%/year

Try comparing that too returns from other products,traders,hedge-funds>>>>>it will be an impressive figure to say the least of doubling your money in a year.

All it takes is continious belief, focus, discipline to your approach


NOTE-

In above points I havent mentioned hedging/taking options which will reduce your profitability factor>>but still give you 50-70% year>>and will safeguard you against "Black Swan" events

The above points are for the "Doers", not the "baby-feeder", who want confirmation for taking each and every trade.

Last but not the least, don't blame the master (Ilango) if you face whipsaw due to your own non-diligence, lack of capital, focus or dedication. Its a free initiative on his part and it takes some serious dedication to maintain a Live Blog during trading(market hours). Since its a free initiative, no-one is forced to follow it>>>There is a disclaimer put at the end of the site.If you believe in it, then come and join it.

regards
Dicipline

mynac said...

श्रीराम,
मी इतका वेळ बाहेर होतो...त्या मुळे एकूणच घडामोडींची काहीच आत्ता तरी कल्पना नाही पण अगदी मनातले सांगायचे तर ५७२५ ला निफ्टी चे बिव्हेयीअर बाबत मी अतिशय उत्सुक होतो... किंबहुना अजून स्पष्ट सांगायचे तर त्या वर सहजगत्या ट्रेडिंग करणे निफ्टीला अवघड आहे असे माझे मत होते नि आहे...पण बोललो नाही एवढेच..त्या मुळे समोरील मंडळी येथून हलली कि पुन्हा येतोच....

parminder said...

mynac sir,
gud afternoon
kindly explain us also what u r saying
Regards

satheesh said...

Thanks sir. I normally consider 5 with 20 MA for positional trades - but 5 & 10 also has provided good swing trades :)

Vivek said...

@ Discipline - I completely endorse your point of you.

I it practically impossible for anybody else to do this kind of self less service. And, the entire focus is to make avg trader learn how to fish rather the spoon feeding him all the time.

losses are part n parcel. Accept, move on and concentrate on making the next correct move.

Bhushan said...

प्रियmynac,
तू अतिशय सुंदर बोलतोस! :D

A J said...

@discipline focus
Great research, have you got the data of each trade for last year, if yes can you please forward it to my email - anujjoshi.aj@gmail.com, also I want to know about number of trades in an year. Thanks

@DR ji
Attendance please

discipline focus said...

@AJ Have compiled the data from september last year till march this year on spread sheet (6months), to check and verify the system. After 6 months got so much conviction that stopped updating spreadsheets, just started watching contract notes ;). will update it on Ggroups or mail you the sheet

Btw for those 6 months number of trades were 36-38 if I correctly remember (depending on 2 gaps that were on vicinity of next day JNSAR figure and if you took them).

Abhi said...

Sir, what should be the SL for JNSAR long ? Should it be 5671 as 0.618% of the rise from 5637 to 5725 ?

parminder said...

Hi all,
Dineshji is out of town so unable to post today
Regards

Kiran said...

parminder ji.

Quick and short translation of wht mynac was saying..

QUOTE
I was curious about Nifty's behaviour above 5725.
I had and have opinion that it is going to be difficult go above and continue trade above it.
Just that I tried to keep my opinion to myself..
UNQUOTE


shriram said...

Dear Mynac,

aramaat , aaadhi kaam mahavta che, ani tashi kaahi ghaee nhave ..

this discussion is purely for academic enlightenment , can do it post trading hrs also, sanga nantr :-)

Ilango said...

1.00 PM TT & Chart Updated.

salildali said...

I think one gets a whipsaw in JANSAR trade when market is in either 2nd or 4th wave. But mostly in 4th wave as retrenchment is 23.6% or 38 %. I think currently we are in 4th wave.

SAM said...

yesterday lupin gave breakout to HNS pattern on heavy volume... with neckline at around 668-669 .. target 500 ..can any one please confirm ...

Parminder Pajji ... please help

SAM said...

read as 568-569 neackline..

CDG said...

Dear Parminder,
similar to yesterday can you kindly post the developing 9-RSI value (1.00 pm Close).
Regards

A J said...

@discipline focus
6 months is cool, I was expecting it to be more than 36-38 trade. But the lesser the better :)
I am not on google groups, please send it to my email or an invitation to groups. Which ever is more convenient to you.

If the drawdown is less in that data( which I am sure about). One can have a more aggressive money management ( "if you have anywhere between rs1lakh-1.5lakh = trade 1 lot")
But it depends on trader's risk profile. However what you said is good for "getting rich slowly and quietly" basic essence of "Just Nifty" :)

parminder said...

Hi sam ,
as to what i see the pattern is there bt yet to confirm breakdown on daily chart

Regards

Sweta said...

Resp Sir,
Yesterday I have closed my short position. Today morning sold below 5694,which is reversed above 5714. and now again reversed below 5680. Now which level I should follow to reverse my sell position initiated below 5680?
I am new to JNSAR trading.
Thank you in adv.

jay shah said...

nice post dear discipline focus thanks for the nice post today was very enlightning, hope to have more from you in the future

A J said...

@Parminder paji
Thanks for the info about DR ji

SAM said...

what will be breakout point ..

SAM said...

lupin results on 23rd .. with HNS pattern at top .. i am sure something is cooking in that counter ..

Parimal said...

SAM
Lupin on day chart has made a breakdown of H&S pattern yesterday itself-- 17 points down. it has a strong support of 200DMA at 531.

Parimal said...

Infy (after the fall) is consolidating in a probable ascending triangle. there is also a positive divergence on its hrly chart

parminder said...

looks like going to be another whipsaw day

Ilango said...

@ Abhi ,

Since the current rise could be either
1. a reversal accompanied by +ve div in Hour & OS day

OR

2. a corrective bounce for the fall of '5815-5637',

"trading one's position" is the smart thing to do.

Our observations accordingly mentioned below sometime ago could have been used to capture 40 points:

Ilango said...
More strength only above "5725".

Nifty could consolidate between 5680 to 5720 before deciding on the next move.

Manage your trades accordingly.
October 12, 2012 11:30 AM

It is meant to manage your trades, however you are positioned.

If you were long, you could have booked out @ 5720 and covered it @ 5680 while still holding longs. OR

Alternately, you could have raised the SL after 11.00AM, suggested in "Nifty Intraday update-I" post and sold at the break of 5714 after 12.00.

And if you were short, you part book @ 5680, capturing some points to manage the whipsaw.



Suraj said...

@ Dear Discipline focusji Nice post. Appreciated.

Regards
Suraj

discipline focus said...

AJ,
Sent the file

I wish I could advocate a higher leverage profile, but being from the school of thoughts of Nassim Nicholas Taleb "black swan", you never know when we can have a gap up/gap down. Plus lesser leverage makes your mind free/unbiased, improving your performance :)

sandeep bhoite said...

@ MASTER

Mail send Kindly reply when time permit

Nifty Simba said...

rising wedge in bank nifty ...100 odd points sell target

satheesh said...

Sir,

Hats off to your explanation. Trading positions cannot be explained in a more simpler way

TAnovice said...

Sujata ji, is Sergei bubka busy today?? amit ji is busy with his birthday celebrations so can't come...

A J said...

@discipline focus
Thanks Focus ji, sure I agree. Did he (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) give any figure, how many black swan events one can get in one decade or so?
JNSAR will usually keep you in the direction of black swan event mostly. JNSAR = Mother swan, and the black swan follows :D
I can remember three such events Jan 08, Oct 08, May 09. I think JNSAR would have worked in our favor during these events. However we got "this gift" a little late from Ilango. Will be handy in future :D Has Mr Taleb given any data or frequency about black swan? Cheers.

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