Friday, October 12, 2012

Nifty Intraday Update-I

For a person who trades based on just the JNSAR number, the JNSAR for 11th was "5720" and it triggered only @ 3.29PM and hence the close can not be above it. And the JNSAR shorts would have remained and it will have the JNSAR trigger for the day @ 5714.
Since I had a bullish view in the ST & have been suggesting a reversal from either Thu/Fri around the 1st major support @ 5640 and a reversal did take place, I took 12th JNSAR after 3.00PM & taken a long trade.
The conservative trade SL@5655(80% of the rise from 5637 to 5721) protected & Nifty took support @ 5659(73.6%) due to adverse Infy news(Note BN did not have such a sharp fall).
There are two options here:
A. Reverse the trade @ 5694 with a SAR @ 5714.
B. Hold the long trade with 5682(21 Hr sma as SL for an hour & raise the SL higher later)
Do not come into the market unprepared. And once prepared, do not waver. Remember your preparation should have plans for contingencies/ for the unexpected happenings.
There are choices to be made and there is a small price to it if you act systematically.

48 comments:

mynac said...

Dear Shriram,
“Bears will rejoice if we close below 5698”
Yesterday, Basically when close was going to register even below developing JNSAR, there was no question of going long when Nifty had come up from 5637 to 5721 (intra 84 points) for a day and when JNSAR was @ 5720….

After sharp run up and registering new high for rally (5815), when Nifty has cut JNSAR on the down side it shall be tough for Bulls to conquer fort too easily. Even though, if they will cross today JNSAR then also it would be very much tough for Bulls to keep it “always” up and above DHEMA & JNSAR, cause it will also rise sharply… means considering expiry after 8 trading days, I have no great hopes about sustainable upward rally from here. Let us see…

shriram said...

Namaskar mynac,

That would be a view, thanks,accepted graciously.

My faith is invested to follow 5DEMA , so for me 5698 is the SAR for today.

Too much more discussion will confuse, so trying to keeping it simple :-)


Prabakar said...

NIFTY OPTIDX Open Interest at 10 -> CLICK HERE

prashant shah said...

namskar sir and friends.... today IIP data?

Sweta said...

Resp Sir,
I have initiated sell at 5694. Now which is SAR for today, 5714 or 5734(with 20pts filter)?

cooldent said...

JNSAR gives much more than the whipsaws. Have faith and follow.

mynac said...

श्रीराम,
माझा आज वरचा अनुभव मला असे सांगतो कि एकदा जे एन एस ए आर कट करून निफ्टी जेव्हा खाली जाते नि प्रॉपर हेल्दी करेक्शन शिवाय जेव्हा पुन्हा जे एन एस ए आर क्रॉस करून घाई घाईत वर जायचा प्रयत्न करते तेव्हा ते फार "नियमाला" धरून नसते.... त्या मुळेच केवळ हि सावधानता ..:)

Manish said...

@ Shri smo and Mynac

I agree with you.5698 the 5 DEMA has always been found to be the trendsetter.

Would like to add here that yesterday when the prices were going up the RSI was showing divergence continuously in the Google finance charts.

JNSAR was 5720 till 3 as master has explained.Time correction as per master's morning pre-view was also not over.It was only the fourth day of the correction or consolidation.

Smita said...

@sweta I think 5714 would be right , as explained by sir in the above post .

prashant shah said...

nifty future yesterday ATP was 5701

Sujatha said...

Sir - When it has made low of "5659" even google showing the figure am not able to locate the candle. pls. confirm onceagain sir the low is 5659??? my SL is nearby there for longs tks n advance.

PS : Me only the chotta bull??? :P :( Think nifty s planning to lift 5702-05 in one candle??

chetas said...

Sister,

in the open it just ticked for a second at 5659, i saw it screen, but chart is not showing the same

chetas said...

perhabs becas of infy gap down, his happened

shriram said...

@ mynac: :-))))))))))))

@ manish:
Ur words indicate "ur view" is to expect more downside ? And Rsi-price div on which T/f ?

What is it that you wish to explain, pls state "Long" or "ShorT" & on what Trigger ??

For Good trades, we shud hv clear cut Entry trigger. Pls tell me what is the entry trigger & on what t/f ?

STOCK4SURE said...

a bearish WW may develop in ns and BN 5 min charts
pt 5 may form in 11510-520 range
and in ns near 5705
trgts 5680 and 11440
near 12 noon

jay shah said...

dear cooldent sent you a mail please check when your free many thanks

Parimal said...

Infy may be regaining senses slowly

Sweta said...

@ Smits
Thank you. I also think so.

STOCK4SURE said...

resp sir.
in 5 min 5day Bn charts
is it making a cup pattern if it does move uptill near 11530(high sofar is 11510) and then will dip to complete handle
for a strong upmove of 280 pts abv break of 11530 in next week...or its saucer pattern which does not need any handle to give breakout???
the cup took 4 days in formation
how much time does it need to make handle???

Varadarajulu Venkatesan said...

Dear Master and All

I follow JNSAR for Index and Stocks by EOD close only. This is my wealthy experience.

Thank you

jay shah said...

many thanks dear cooldent for quick reply

Arun Kumar Sharma said...

@ampatel ji
Jnsar triggered at 5714 for long?

parminder said...

jnsar triggered long for sure for the prepared and unprepared

subho said...

dear DR SIR...sir yesterday u told trade only ema rules... i follow 2 types ema 5 hema..& 5 low ema ( daily chart) ..but here 3 types ema high , low , close..... i just confused... past i short when price brek hema i sell on rising.... but sir now according to ilango sir rules when price break hema & close ema then i short... plss exxplained...

prakashbkc said...

GM Master & blogmates,

I m sharing the history of Infy Result Today what happenned to Infy Same repeated on 12Jan 2012,
That also Infy fell 10%,
At that time Nifty also opened -30 from yesterday close at 4834 but JNSAR was 4749, BN open +ve market take support at that between 34Hr sma & 21hr sma at 4804 in coming rest all Know how nifty behaves.
At that I have taken no position becoz of infy result.
But one thing big difference at that time Nifty was at 4800 NOW nifty was at 5700.
This what I want to share

subho said...

DEAR DR SIR.... i thinl if high ema 300...close ema 275...i short if price break atfst 300 then 275 then i short trg of low ema...am i right sir?
as same vice versa...if low ema 200 close ema 225..i buy if price break 200 then 225..i buy abv 225 trg of hema..is it right sir.... plss reply

Sujatha said...

Chetas - thank you very much :)

shhhhhhhh nifty trying for 49 first.. then?? :) trying for sudden burst abv 22??? with no time to decide looks like

Ilango said...

11.00AM TT & Chart Updated.

satheesh said...

Nifty & Bank Nifty Hour Chart Update:

CLICK HERE

shriram said...

@ ilango ji,

If Restricting to 80%-104% of 5815-5637, is this rise a B wave of a ABC flat ?

Debdeep said...

Good Morning Master and all. An inverted H&S above 5725 with taret around 5800. Can anybody see?

satheesh said...

50% retracement done for the fall from 5815 - 5636 @ 5725

Parimal said...

Yes Debdeep, we can 'see' the Inverted H&S on hrly chart. breakout level would be above 5750 NF.

Kranti said...

Ilango Sir , Please suggest me 2 or 3 stocks in cash which has potential to move up from here. thanks

Ilango said...

More strength only above "5725".

Nifty could consolidate between 5680 to 5720 before deciding on the next move.

Manage your trades accordingly.

Manish said...

@ Shriram

Yes expected more downside but all based on JNSAR as Vridarajan also mentioned JNSAR price has to be taken on EOD basis.Atleast i do that for stocks as well as for Nifty.

Also my expectation was that Infy will disappoint whatever may be the last few hours price movements may be.It was based on last three quarters results and the body language of the management as the markets where they operate are in difficulty.

Only an exceptional leader like Mr.Murthy or Nandan would hv produced better than expected results.

Div.was there on 5 min and half hour charts.

Ilango said...

@ shriram,

Hence, the above observation.

Debdeep said...

Yes Sateesh....50 % done. Next is 61.8% which is around 5747 but if Nifty move past 5725 then can easily target 5800 which is more than 80%. so if nifty move past 5725 then it's a trend reversal definitely.

shriram said...

@ ilango ji: tks sir :-)

@ manish : ok, we r talking different systems, so there is ltd value-add from my side to this view.

Parimal said...

INR gains marginally against USD--52.74 up from 52.84

Debdeep said...

Posted a Nifty future chart in the group where Nifty future is at the upper tend line of the channel. So a fall looks like imminent below 5725. Sir also mentioned abt this level so double confident now. :)

chetas said...

NS open high same for this hr

shriram said...

Mynac,

PRICE-SSTO / RSI "inter-play" var apule kaay "mat" ahe ...

kadhi pahata ani kase? Tumcha "view" Savistar sanga, covering both Trending as well as cyclic phases :-)

Eidiot Wave said...
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