Friday, July 27, 2012

Nifty Intraday Update-I


46 comments:

Prabakar said...

NIFTY OPTIDX Open Interest at 10 -> CLICK HERE

Ilango said...

@ shivanGupta,

The difference is "Settlement day". It was the last minute hopeful bulls dumping/ unwinding that caused the excesses.

Kranti said...

Hrly Open / Low same

AshuTej said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir,

As per medium term EW we have 2 counts open.
1.Bearish C wave, target below 4770 and invalid point 5349. Considered Wave C1=5349-5032, Wave C2=5032 to 5xxx
2.Bullish C wave, target above 5349.
Am I correct sir? If correct what is the invalid point for bullish Wave C.

How to calculate invalid point based on EW?

Regards
Ashutej

shiva said...

good morning,seniors..

Ilango said...

@ AshuTej ,

"Invalid points" aren't suitable for trading and they are never final.

I suggest to use them for understanding strength & weakness of a particular move.

61.8% retrace is considered as aggressive invalidation point.
80% retrace is considered as conservative invalidation point.

100% retrace negates the count but isn't much handy for trading strategies.

Two days ago, we suggested to sell @ 5119(61.8% retrace of 5144 to 5077) with a SL of 5131(80%) and it was a good plan.

Many such plans are abound in the market if you can identify the pivot points of "segments of price moves based on EW study.

If ever I doubt the studies that I follow objectively, what am I doing here.
And if I believe in them but don't execute my trades, what am I doing here.

Swami Vivekanand says....

Strength is nectar, weakness is poison.

Kranti said...

Ilango Sir .. You mentioned ' market showed its hand with huge + in 5000 Puts '..But you have also mentioned last minute hopeful bulls unwinding causing excesses ( i understand this as excess fall ) . Can you please explain this.. this will help me in understanding the settlement day Nifty behaviour.. Thanks

bharat said...

Good Morning Illango Sir...

As NS has still not broken 5131..so are there possibilities of a new low..

Regards

Sujatha said...

There are millions of people in this world, Then Why are you born? Bcoz,
God will be expecting something from you which is not Possible by millions..:)

Good Morning sir and everybody :)

Sir - Is SPOT AND NF hawala is the same???
tks n advance

google chart not working??? anybody facing this problem??

"Today is "varamahalakshmi pooja" may the GOODESS give all good health wealth and happiness". May lakshmi give JNSAR hit + 200

Congrats Nilesh ji :)

Kumar Technicals said...

Good Morning ILango sir & everyone!

Expiry day mostly expire running wave & new wave hovers around to start just on expiry day or day after. Expiry day is also famous to break all the rules of waves, moving averages, OB, OS etc. just bcoz of huge money involve in option writing. 5170 is crucial point, which will open gateway for 5250-5300. Master also indicated importance of 5173 on month closing:)

Ilango said...

@ Kranti,

My critic, who understands speculation better than anyone I know of, has a simple theory for settlement:

If the prices are trading below 60% mark of its range for the settlement, bulls are weak and the settlement will end closer to the lows, often, making a new low for the settlement day.

And vice versa for upmoves/ bulls.

When you combine this theory with technicals shown in simple format in our Tech.table, you have a potent strategy which will require "Patience".

Kranti said...

I got it Ilango Sir.. Thank you so much..

Ilango said...

@ bharat,

Can we say categorically a new low will be made...

OR for that matter 5359 will be scaled.

Some say such stuff and get coloured with such opinions and then on, they see only their chosen coloured things.

Market has paused @ 34 hr sma-5130.
At the same time, market has also taken support @ 200sma-5101.

Below 5101 & 5094, it is weak.
Above 5130, strong.

But only EOD prices would confirm a reversal.

Sandy said...

If the prices are trading below 60% mark of its range for the settlement, bulls are weak and the settlement will end closer to the lows, often, making a new low for the settlement day.

Ilango could you please explain the word "Range for the settlement" clearly ?

shriram said...

Morning everyone!

close @ 11:00 > 5125 will trigger a buy for 5-10HrEMA followers

Dev 5DEMA is UP & will turn UP EOD on EROD close > 5115

If this sustains, we can havea good Up TREND

cheers

Ilango said...

@ Sujatha,

Happy Varamahalaxmi. Blessings always.

Yes. The spot close on the last settlement(July) close becomes havala price for next settlement(August).

And Google charts are working fine.

STOCK4SURE said...

bade dino baad dekhi aisi hariyaali
saavan ka mahina pawan kare shor

bharat said...

Thanks a lot....Sir ji...

Amol Sharma said...

Sir

VIX index getting low NOW at 15.82 what does it means ?

Ilango said...

@ Sandy,

There were 20 trading days for the July settlement.

60% of 20 days is 12 days.

12 days range is the settlement range on 16 th July and it was
5189(29th June)
5349(10th July)

and the market closed on 16th July @ 5197.(Ver close to the lows).

This suggested bearish bias.
JNSAR was short from 12 th July.

Ilango said...

@ Amol Sharma,

VIX= Fear

Fear= Bear

Kranti said...

We have traded 35 hours below 34 Hour EMA..

Swami Shivkumaar said...

Dear Sir,
Good Morning.
I know that you do not track stocks the way your track Index. But If possible please present your view on INFOSYS.
Regards

Sivakumar S

Ilango said...

@ Swami Shivkumaar ,

Infy has done a 5-wave move from 2994 to 2101.(Almost)

It is oversold.

It could do a retrace rally in the coming days.

It has also broken from its LT trendline.

Trade in it with absolute caution.

Some fundamental changes have taken place.

marketrider said...

good morning ilango sir & all
sir,
you said.

If the prices are trading below 60% mark of its range for the settlement, bulls are weak and the settlement will end closer to the lows, often, making a new low for the settlement day.

I couldn't understand range for settlement, Plz explain with example( If possible).
with thanks

marketrider said...

sir
my net was down
so my massage late
same query
thanks for answer

SAM said...

Kitne dino sai intazar mai tha mai is din kai :)

Swami Shivkumaar said...

Thank you sir
Regards
Siva

shriram said...

5-10 system has triggered Longs

Prediction-centric traders may pt out that entry is 80-100 pts too "late"

but now the commitment is to being systematic, so thats a cross to bear , lets c , if the trend rewards the followers faith now :-)

Manish said...

Great master

Blessed to have your lessons today so far.

Please keep pouring.

CDG said...

Dear Ilango

The SAR for week at 5148 is poised to trigger. where as SAR for Day at 5172 is little far. will it be ok if go long on Week JNSAR basis. Will triggering week JNSAR indicate that next week again we may expect some upmove...
Regards

anmpatel said...

@master
JNSAR trader can sell at 5144 earlier resistance?? thanks.

Badri said...

Crucial Points Ahead: 5151--- Developing DAY HEMA; 5152--- J10 SAR; 5151---Tomorrows JNSAR; 5148---This Week's JNSAR. Watchout.

Prabha Gopalkrishna said...

JN Temple = Wikipedia of Trading.

Sujatha said...

Sir - thank you very much. may god bless now "SOME DOWNSIDE" as retracement :)

Prasad said...

Sir,
Was away for few days. Nice explanation of settlement theory.
Sincere thanks.
Also to Nilesh for ATR.
Regards

J.R.Julius said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
J.R.Julius said...

If NS Sustain above 5144 with a new HL
FIB Targets 5174-5212!

shriram said...

30mins RES zone ahead @ 5205-5220

San said...

NIFTY Resistance levels: CLICK HERE

Rajan said...

at 11
55 hr ema-5149
89 hr ema-5172
200hr ema-5173

Nifty trying to avoid a highly bearish cover of 89x200

Ilango said...

@ CDG,

Adjustment to JNSAR should be done by individuals based on their perceptions of the market.

"anmpatel" wants to "resell"....he has to manage his trades.

I have presented the EW scenario.

I have presented the Technical studies scenario.

"Pick up whatever convinces you the most" and follow it. When not convinced, wait it out for more convincing evidences.

For JNSAR traders, no evidences but the number as well as its trend.

jayant singh said...

38% of the fall from 5349 to 5032 comes at 5153

Ilango said...

A 5 waves from 5101.05 to 5149.95 seems to have been done.

61.8%-5120 is crucial.

80%-5111 below which a larger retrace of entire upmove of 5033 to 5150 will be on.

Reject it if Nifty moves higher above 5155.

eevra said...

Hi Prabha Gopalkrishna:
For markets it is not wikipedia it would be JNpedia!!

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