Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Nifty Intraday Update-III


61 comments:

SJkolkata said...

I will bet for JNSAR trigger today.

Ilango said...

@ Sujatha,

Put "Fevicol" to your positions.

Ilango said...

@ SJkolkata,

Trading "JNSAR" positions once a "sell on Rises" emerges at the "resistances" indicated would keep you in the "Reserved status" before the general public boards the Bus which is hurtling down.

Aly said...

While it is too early as the day hasnot closed yet, I would again like to remind everyone that today Bernake, US Fed chaiman, is going to speak-up about tapering and hence whatever positions you have should be hedged or you should go with less positions

prakashbkc said...

Master by
EW iii wave target min 5989-(6038-5911)=5862 ?

SJkolkata said...

Yes Master,
I experienced this is last 2 occasions and also today, though i hedged myself fully day before only.
When we accept this, it becomes like riding a limousine with no bumps.
I didnt answer yesterday, but i could have produced contract notes of puts, as much as needed purchased on Monday closing between 3:15 to 3:30.
I dont have words to thank you for giving me this knowledge and because of that the Comfort while driving the markets.
Hats off and a Shashtang Pranam..

Sujatha said...

oh sir??? am on the way to climb small hill

shriram said...

--> back

wow, wot a fall, and finally a setup too !

Oscill. suggest 5990-5928 fall may be corrective in nature.

If Dev.Dlo Supports @ 5918 NS & 59PE OI is stable, casino game enrty is ON.

Pt to note:
NS is now trading < St.DEMA, this means WkEMA is the hope for casino owners, for this trade ;-)

Prabhanshu said...

Sir, retrace for the current fall can be till 50%, 61.8%?

RainMaker said...

Aly said...

While it is too early as the day hasnot closed yet, I would again like to remind everyone that today Bernake, US Fed chaiman, is going to speak-up about tapering and hence whatever positions you have should be hedged or you should go with less positions
July 17, 2013 at 2:15 PM

Everyday somebody speaks, yesterday Govt. annouced FDI opening in the late evening, Price discounts everythng, as a technical trader we must consider our charts/price only.

bizagra said...

Ilango sir...will the day lead indicator move below 80 today??

Aly said...

@Rainmaker: I agree with you however we have seen this for last 3-4 times market reacts violently to one side sometimes in direction opposite to JNSAR as well. Thats why i thought it better that people should be warned beforehand

vksoni said...

pls break jnsar

Piyush Sharda said...

bank nifty closed on highs before rbi news
i think its a clear case of price not discounting
event in advance

Ilango said...

@ prakashbkc,

Direction is primary which is wobbly.

Targets will be checked as certain key levels are yet to be broken.

Ilango said...

@ bizagra,

Yes & below trigger at prices below 5950.

Ilango said...

I welcome "Good news" when market starts to fall as this gives me "Selling opportunities".

And I welcome "Bad news" when market starts to rise as this gives me "buying opportunities".

Ilango said...

@ Piyush Sharda,

Prices had serious negative divergences, the hidden "discounting".

Such a situation calls for either "Booking out atleast partially" & hedging if individual likes the strategy.

Sujatha said...

sir - am not against your view or JNSAR (as lot of people thinking so??) ths is absolutely observation of price behaviour + TT + intution. am with TSL on EOD basis. my understanding ON JNSAR and TT is totally different. puridhalyum, unardhalaiyum.. puriyavaikka vazhi illa sir (with me. in other words i donno to teach)

mm. let me see my today's fate :( 3 round (third round is not good for health?? hehe)


shriram said...

@ Piyush:

Wish to place an Obsv here

"Piyush Sharda said...
bank nifty closed on highs before rbi news
i think its a clear case of price not discounting
event in advance"

Price STAND-ALONE has not MEANING, like BEST BASTMAN EVER has no MEANING, as every generation throws up new talent.

All we can say is BEST AMONGST THE CURRENT SAMPLE SET

Similarly is the case with PRICE... PRICE has to be compared with what its doing wrt EMA & the oscill.. on a particular T/f

PRICE moving > Higher T/f Hi-lo EMA w.o corresp Oscill Vibration --> TREND

Price making lo
wer High-LO or being Resisted / Supported @ Higher T/f Hi-Lo EMAs / RES-support, but Oscill Virbating CRAZY from OB to OS or vice versa --> hiFREQ Corrective

ofocurse OTM OI help is needed in all setups to firm up the view

GOD IS IN DATA :-)

Piyush Sharda said...

sir,
i have started intra trading of small quantity of sar positions. but dont
carry forward (intra)them usually. had it been a known event(rbi) would have considered hedging. in past due to deprication of premium hedging cost me money so do it selectively.

rose mary said...

Ilango Sir,

What is best way to hedge position over night, suppose if JNSAR (5922) triggered and market closed below it today.

i trade with 2 lot nifty.
buying 2 lot call, is good hedge?

if yes, we need to consider any particular strike price? (5900 call, nearest price)
if not, please sugget better way to hedge..

Ur reply helps many of us.

prakashbkc said...

Master,

Which key levels do u referring Is it Break of Dlema / JNSAR

Piyush Sharda said...

shriram,

i disagree. price is source of all oscillators/ma.
it is possible to trade successfully without any ma/oscillator too.
rest what u are talking is individual trading strategy you follow. that wud have caught the downmove.

Adrian Jose said...

Nursery rhyme for Intruders

Johny Johny , YES PAPA
Stock Market ,NO PAPA
Lot of tension ,YES PAPA
Family life NO PAPA
BP-SUGAR ,YES PAPA.
Annual Income…….Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha !!

Sujatha said...

sirrrrrrrrrr - next song pls :)

shriram said...

No piyush

U missed my pt.

Price is the actuating quantiyt no doubt, but the QUALITY OF THAT PRICE MOVE, i.e

How Price moves i.e Vibratory or DIRECTIONAL,

is capture by the ocill (High FreQ Pass Filter) or EMA (Low FreQ Trend Pass)



RainMaker said...

Piyush Sharda said...

bank nifty closed on highs before rbi news
i think its a clear case of price not discounting
event in advance
July 17, 2013 at 2:37 PM


RBI action was out of the blue not anticipated.

Debt funds too gave negative returns on that day ( they are suppose to positive returns)

Just like Uttrakhand floods.

J.R.Julius said...

@Sujatha,
Hope you got L3...
Clap... Clap...

Ilango said...

@ prakashbkc,

Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Nifty, having completed the corrective rise to MHEma, did not provide the needed entry for selling with a gap down yesterday.
We suggested a move towards DLEma & NIfty moved to 5911(DLEma being 5909)
We suggested a bounce towards "5959-74(High made 5966).
New signal is: "Sell on rise" in all the T/F. "5970", the critical resistance & 5981. 21 hr sma are considered strong resistances above which 6001, just a point above the psychological "6000".
Weakness would start below 5935-44, week & Day pivots & bearishness would get confirmed below 5893-99, 61.8% retrace of the last rise from 5803-6038 & WEma.

Sanjay Barua said...

Dear Master,

"I welcome "Good news" when market starts to fall as this gives me "Selling opportunities".

And I welcome "Bad news" when market starts to rise as this gives me "buying opportunities". '

Well said.....That's what Smart Players Do!

Regards

Sujatha said...

julius - deivame,,, konjam guess pannunga naan yenga vangiyirukkenne or check my post time and check the candle..and chek the previous mails. don't remember?? no position boss..am gng out now and morning may be late to market.

anyway pocket is OK for day..

bye

PS : kadavule daily volatile vendum

J.R.Julius said...

Tracking market movement along with Ema channel mostly gives more clarity in decisions.

Iris said...

Any reason for such a rally. Everybody was expecting JNSAR trigger. Is it again a good point to short ?

RainMaker said...

It seems market has listened to the Aly's advise and covered their shorts (:

shriram said...

45 pts done from days Low in 20mins !

J.R.Julius said...

@Sujatha,
YES. Hat's Off.

Kiran said...

Doji closing ?

cooldent said...

missed out the long trade julius :(

prakashbkc said...

Now in dilema should I carry Short Master

Piyush Sharda said...

shriram ,
just think. u r applying studies to price and drawing conclusions. there are many times price
discounts events in advance and market falls before bad news and vice versa for good.
it didnt happen here and market was caught unawares
ppl who hedge and carry aggresive intra day shorts
were benefited . but the game of trading is long one and we have to see the result of such actions over long period of time to put it into our do/not do .

Trader Junkie said...

excellent Carmella levels...@Sujatha - I bow to your intuition "small hill" was a big one actually :)

Nicely supported at low EMAs

End of day - Bye guys

shriram said...

Piyush:

Am trying to say

More than price, QUALITY OF THE WAVE IS MORE IMPORTANT !

Not talking bout instrument or even trade strat.. pure TA

Ultimately all we need to know @ FIRST LEVEL is that , whether a wave is suspect TREND or CORRECTIVE.

Only exploration thru Maths on the Price action gives real insight.

baat ki gehrai ko dekhna jaroor.

Piyush Sharda said...

'Only exploration thru Maths on the Price action gives real insight.'

i agree shriram. we can add other studies instead/inaddition to maths too

shriram said...

Adding to line of discussion..

This evidence of Price Qyualtiy very much happened on day TA for the rise from 5566-6038, was declared hi-FREQ by the oscill on DAY Candles.

Was pestering Ilango bout it , "has C ended", 2 days ago for this very reason

Amarendra said...

Wat a fight!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIe06TAGaZM&feature=youtu.be

J.R.Julius said...

@Sir,
enakkum oru song podunga sir...

vksoni said...

ew down
ta sell on rise
jnsar up

Ilango said...

@ Julius,

The no:1 song in my life, dedicated to my mother and now for you.

Ulagam Piranthathu Namakkaga

shriram said...

infact on 5mins, study suggest this rise 5928-5980 is a HiFreQ corrective rise to 5990-5928

Can we get a gap-down tomo ? lets c


Bye All!

J.R.Julius said...

@Sir,
Thank you very much Sir. :)

Ilango said...

Do not be surprised if gap up or down happens.

Learn to deal with it.

If you have fear, stay out.

Market gives you very good opportunities like it did today.

So wait patiently for such occasions to make your move.

I'll continue to present them.

But I can not "Predict".

Obsessive Lover said...

Looking forward to a 150 point gap down tomo..

SJkolkata said...

Obs Lovr.
LoL....
Inshah Allah..........

chetas said...

doji candle, avg close near 5971, below HEMA,

Ilango said...

@ Julius,,

That is pure Joy, pure energy, pure love...............

and love.

Obsessive Lover said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rose mary said...

If one trades more than 4 lots, below strategy can be implemented i guess

JNSAR trigger long on EOD, but overnight some big event.

So, carry 3 lot long on current month future & 1 lot short on next month future.

If 100 points gap up --> 10k profit on next day open & manage position
If 100 point gap down --> 10k loss on next day open.. need to exit longs on any rally and add shorts gradually.


add your suggestions pls!

sarvesh said...

thank you sir, for the pure love , passion and dedication!!
please respond to my mail. i am unable to access justnifty TA ..which i previously i was able to..
thanks

J.R.Julius said...

Yes sir i can feel it.

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