Thursday, July 11, 2013

Nifty Intraday Update-I


64 comments:

Sandy said...

J10SAR week 5928 & major low 5936.8 are providing resistances. Masters pre-market view support will be 5895-5904 (if some 20-25 points correction happens). Buy in dips market till c-leg up concludes. All masters views as I read his clues.

Sandy said...

I am sorry 5928 is 10 Week SMA

marina s rao said...

Sandy ji, What is major low 5936.8 ? - M S rao

Aditya Jain said...

sir no need to offend anybody but yesterday jnsar triggered in short side with 20 points filter which did not happen. secondly market closed spot nifty below jnsar at 5808 and after 15 minutes around 3.45 nifty closed 5917 which was above jnsar as a trader people would have taken shorts or could have booked loss, or in future how to deal with this situation.

J.R.Julius said...

@Sujatha,
Spot levels.

@Friends,
Pattern Recognition & Support, Resistance identification - one of the Best Books Ever.
*Martin Pring On Price Patterns - by Martin J Pring


Best Wishes.

Sandy said...

Marina it was the H&S formation d-leg low (5936.8) wherafter market rose for e-leg and crashed and hence it is suuposed to resist.

Nilesh Pandya said...

if todays close above 5931 slow macd converted to positive

Ilango said...

@ Aditya Jain,

Please state your doubts; getting offended or not is individual's choice.

We have clearly stated "Bearisness would be touched upon only below 5790";

For the JNSAR long triggered on 08th July, one could have opted for a filter on the second day, 10th July and managed to hold their position.

Most readers here monitor the "average closing" by calculating the average prices from 3.15PM which gives them a "approximate but near close" figure of "Close price".

I keep repeating here:

Study well, become proficient so that you don't have these kinds of doubts during live market.

Ankit Solanki said...

A lesson for everyone.
A pig will always invite u in the muck with him and A doubting moron will always attract you towards doubts and an indecisive mind.

We all know the pig in the herd :)

Aditya Jain said...

sorry sir i got it when you mentioned 8th july i was just looking for yesterdays number forgot about 8th july completely.

cooldent said...

pehchan kaun


http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pictures/o/1195767082/White-Rhinoceros-Australia.jpg

gauresh59 said...

Namasthe ilango sir and friends,

Today’s quote received :
Never take it as Defeat.
If You Have Learned From Defeat.
You Have Not Really Lost .
Just Gained A Good Experience...!!

Experience is not what happens to you,
It is what you do with what happens to you.

Aditya Jain said...

and sir other doubt is if someday nifty close below certain level in spot for example at market hours nifty would have closed below 5790 and after closing of the market nifty would have closed above that level then how to deal with those situation will it be merely luck or there is any way to handle that failures.

rose mary said...

Sir the main problem is..

in recent 1 month time, market giving frequent gap up/down's & giving mixed results for JNSAR followers.

Once it benifits for who, apply filter for today JNSAR
Once it benifits for who, apply filter for tomarrow JNSAR
Once it benifits for who,dont apply filter for today JNSAR
Once it benifits for who, dont apply filter for tomarrow JNSAR

Looking at closing price & next day gap up/down.. will clearly state the fact that who switch from one to other method of following JNSAR.. will end up in losses ultimately.

What i learnt from past 1 month trades is.. follow one metho of above 4 at any cost & hedge your future position with option (when expecting some event/news overnight)

means, buy 1 lot of put for every 1 lot of future you are carrying.. viceversa..

this way you minimize loss if gap up/down is not in your favor..

J.R.Julius said...

@Mr.Aditya Jain,
Hope Master answered ur qn.

However if one focused only on JNSAR
& not with other patterns or studies

the loss is 100pts approx. (as today & 20th June)

Small/Big Whipsaws are part of this trading system.

Whipsaws not only for new comers its for everyone. (if traded)

It requires a particular mindset, as you will suffer a great number of small losses, and only a few large wins.

When U get the trend pain of the losses will
go step by step.

Even if you start trading Parabolic SAR with
daily chart 80 to 150 points risk is very common.


It is not easy to become an emotion free Mechanical Trader. It requires lot of practice, faith, discipline, self-studies and patience.

CDG said...

Dear Ilango,

How should we label this current rise? is it iiiC as you state your preffered view yesterday OR is it still iC since B completed triangle at 5807(approx.) yesterday??

sarvesh said...

@ aditya jain, please go through the trade ticker in your trading terminal and make an average of last 30 minutes of trade 3pm to 3.30 pm..thats the average closing point, you wont miss the EOD price by large

Sanjay Jaiswal said...

Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,

OI Table Update at 11:00AM, Pivot-5839, R1-5870, R2-5918, R3: 5997, ATP-5928, VWAP-5928

The data says it all, huge addition at 6000-5500PE level whereas liquidation at 5800-6100CE level, downside for the day only below Weekly VAH at 5904…

Thanks & Regards

sarvesh said...

respected sir, nifty trading above 5937, how did you arrive at this number? is it R3?

Jitendra Mishra said...

dear friends just an advice it is a learning platform an ocean of knowledge gather it if u like it trading is ur choice llango sir is god of market

sarvesh said...

@ seniors......SBIN, seems like completed 5 waves down from 2472 - 1850, and getting out of a falling wedge too at 1913-15 zone,, can anyone please go through the day chart with rsi(14d) showing +ve divergence since 4th wave start and stoch giving a buy

Aditya Jain said...

thank you julius sir and sarvesh ji.
sir i ask questions to clear my doubts and ask again where i know i went wrong somewhere so that i do not go wrong again fate and luck is different but trading wrong is different. thank you all.
.thank you illango sir.

sarvesh said...

along with this sbin calls getting short covering with cutting of OI and increase in price and 1900 put being written with more than 81500 puts being written just today

sarvesh said...

@ aditya,,,"ji" yahan sirf seniors hain,,i am sarvesh only, am a novice, keeps losing here and there, just a newbie like you, just shared what i learnt here

Sandy said...

Likes and dislikes must and should come from a long association. Who will get Rastrapati award from anybody?

Sandy said...

Nifty c leg can be formed as Zigzag / triangle / diammetric / terminal etc. one should follow closely.

Pattern Trading said...

@Tushar

Infy behave notorious on result day ...I second ragahav view on long term target ... as of now it is retracing last fall... strangle will be best strategy for result

Prabhanshu said...

Sir, what should be sl for any long?
5925- week high ema?

satheesh said...

Namaste Ilango Sir and all,

@ sarvesh,
Sir has mentioned it in Pre-market view. "Minor resistances are 50dsma @ 5915, previous low @ 5937"

Amol Sharma said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sandy said...

PIckup up a little knowledge of Elliot / Neo and keep booking profit from time to time is needed. One can also develop a good understanding of the Oscillators being OB/ OS. A Stop loss has to be trailed to manage higher profits. Ilango or for that matter anybody can give a broad guideline pre-market. Importantly he alerts you during market hour from time to time. Emotions have to be controlled while trading.

Anandha said...

@mmarketman,
ppl who just follow JNSAR may see wipshaws.
But continuos Guidance by Ilango sir, like, yesterday he clearly mentioned that, Nifty is at Triangle bottom. One would have went long at 5805 - 5810 levels.

Offcourse, Gap up/down opens can not be handled by any trading system. That's the risk involved in positional trading.You can share your trading methods clearly, or disclose the positions u take as many do here.Help others brother if you really like to. But commenting on someones page with critic view confuses many other where they take Gap us/downs & losses as part of the game.

shriram said...

GM Master & JN Family,

Smooth, the bounce has warmed bull eyes ..

updating the EW count for BN

a 11034 11753 719
b 11753 11177 -576 -80.1%
c 11177 11896 719 100.0% * in play

C has already done the min 0.618xA

11,751 will also be a Big Interim RES to negotiate

Part book / Book out the longs near RES & or follow 5DEMA

Have a nice day !

cahauhan mufo said...

when u not follw JNSR
avoide it,
there is other study is also posting here, folow that,
or otherwise leav

Sandy said...

Iris try to commit not more than 10% of your capital in one trade. If you are out of the market you lose chance to earn it back. Traingles or range bound trades have to be handled with Day High EMA +20 / Day Low Ema - 20 or Hour High EMA +10 and Hour High EMA - 10. If you follow tredlines they are the best for triangles or for that matter anything.

sarvesh said...

@ SATEESH, thanks sometimes losing sight of small things in bigger picture,, that was indeed the last high.

Jigar said...

@Prabhanshu,

If possible can you please update how you managed your trade after today's opening? Just for learning purpose, I know many like me were following your contribution.

Ding A Dong said...

1st lot profit booked @ buy target 1 and 2nd lot SL is pushed to 5940 on a conservative side.

cooldent said...

who wants to write imposition? " do not interact with intruders".

CDG said...

Dear Ilango,
I am repeating my query for your consideration please:

"How should we label this current rise? is it iiiC as you state your preffered view yesterday OR is it still iC since B completed triangle at 5807(approx.) yesterday?? "

Okay said...

Do not interact with the intruders.

For others,
I have made money following JNSAR in the last 2 months (I had busted nearly 65% of my trading account before that, which, now I have completely recovered and made ~20% profits on it thanks to JNSAR).

In the current scenario, Ilango with his own wisdom had warned about treacherous 'B' wave and the potential of losing money. He had also given guidance how to deal with it at various occasions.

At few occasions my limited mind and knowledge do not understand his wisdom in the nick of time, therefore, I had adopted the patiently waiting game (his another guidance gem) rather than changing positions in this treacherous 'B' wave and had ride it out.
Even then, I have now made decent profit by 'pateintly' waiting (not very large, but something to keep me going).

Please understand that if Ilango knows every second movement of market, he might have been GOD. That is not the case for any human being.

JNSAR is a beautiful tool, which coupled with his guidance gems, can transform the trading into a sucessfull venture.

shriram said...

Time to deploy Bell curve maths for impulsive waves:

days high will be hi-prob (685) @ a mean of 5960-70 with 20pts 1Std Dev on either side.


Sujatha said...

Boot shaky time needed..will it??

Sandy said...

IIP after market hours

Piyush Sharda said...

@ananda,

sorry i missed ur comment.
not able to recollect the wolfe we were discussing
was it 5863(18/6) 5904(1/7) at point i and 3

Amol Sharma said...

@ shriram smooth bounce but time to pause now till 5932-26 then up again towards 5973.

Kumar said...


Friends,

சிறந்த இசை மௌனம்தான்...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzcG9xsZJwk&feature=share&list=PLZ1VPOsCAc7l9zWK9ryoeJDHjOAiXw3cV

Sandy said...

Shriram to recap can you confirm the method that you are using to compute the bell curve distribution and mean?

Ankur Agarwal said...

Hi,

Have been following this blog for a year now, but posting first time...

OIL @ 107. I don't understand any reasons why the market will not go down from here now...

can we have a discussion on members understanding of macro conditions...

prakashbkc said...

In such arise what I observe
JNSAR trade which Master taken do not sell on big rise day the reason I understand is that a follow up action is required next day
which Master awaits

This is my personal observation Senoirs may contribute on this

RainMaker said...

Trading is a zero sum game.

One man's loss is others gain.

There is no reason why we should blame others for our trade gone wrong.

Only experience tells when to take trade even in mechanical trade setups.







Ding A Dong said...

stopped @ profit on both the lots :-)

shriram said...

@ amol:

possible.

predicting time for sub-fracs is neither my outlook for trade, nor forte.

prakashbkc said...

Master any view on BN .Is there also iiird wave possibility like Ciii

Pattern Trading said...

http://www.quantspartner.com/ResultAnalysis.aspx

Amazing balance sheet analysis

prakashbkc said...

Shriram sir,

Is there possibility 5 wave in such rise ia applicable?

shriram said...

@ Sandy

compute {CMP-DhiEMA} for Uptrend & {DloEMa-CMP} for Downtrends on DAY CANDLES

Work out the FreQ Mean .. find Variance , & work out the SD

Assumption : we r tweaking the stats by assuming that the Distribution of Day's Hi or lo wrt CMP once > Dhi or < DlO is a BELL CURVE, with SYMM. distributed population about its MEAN

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION.. REAL price-action has "Skewed MEAN Distribution tendencies"

this ie enuf, will share more @ a later pt

Sandy said...

Ankur for a trend to change a structure has to complete. Market should not do terribily well with the ruppee situation. If it doesn't want to fall too it may bore you. Bull market climbs the wall of worries! Again triangles usually forms before last rally! In this dynamic situation we should live by the day for some time.

mynac said...

Afternoon Everybody..

Amol Sharma said...

@Shriram sir. Your songs collection is great. I love to listen music.
Please keep sharing.

Ding A Dong said...

@JRJ

yesterday you missed a pattern and is happening now @ 2min charts?

i think its good entry point if not BOF and please do share your views.

regards

Guru - Trading Nirvana said...

@Shriram -- Maths at its best???

@Julius/Suja Sis - Yedhavadhu purinjutha?? sathyamma yennaku onnumme purille.. oru vikram padathule solluvan le, "dai yenna da nadakuthu, onnume purille da.. language eh mukiyum" :P....

Ganesh IMR said...

On JNSAR whipsaws, I would like to share my learnings from past mistakes (so that new comers can avoid these mistakes/ minimize loss):

1) JNSAR whipsaws occur mainly during corrective period (i.e. Wave-2, 4 & B), especially if it is a complex corrective involving combinations and/or triangles).

2) Anticipate complex correction, through rule of alternation (not easy always, especially for Wave-2).

3) Observe other indicators (RSI divergence, bull/bear market support/resistance for indicators etc.)
Also, look for nearby strong supports/ resitances in price. Refer daily charts provided EOD by Master.


4) Trade lightly during corrective periods (especially new/inexperienced traders)or in case of doubt, stay aside.

5) If it is correction during Wave-4 or Wave-B, and if you are able to hold position for few days, then use calender spread for few trades so that confidence is gained. This safety net should be removed, once you are confident of handling whipsaws.

6) Alternative to calender spread is to trade intra-day only during whipsaw periods (better to make lesser profit than losing capital/ confidence).

7) Observe PCR (o.8 to 1.4 for VIX < 20)/ SMR (12 to 20) during whipsaw period, w.r.t main trend. Refer Sanjay Jaiswal-ji's comments EOD.

8) Observe FII positions in F&O. Refer NSE site for daily reports on derivatives.
http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/derivatives/equities/homepage_fo.htm

Last 2 points are important especially during liquidity driven rallies, without DII/Retail participation.

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