Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices breaking the channel @ 5929 and getting back into the channel again suggests the completion of "iv"th wave and unfolding of "v"th wave.
Aggressively one would sell at the completion of "v"th or wait for the channel to break again to initiate a sell.
There is an alternative "more bullish scenario" wherein the "v"th wave is extending from 5868 which will be confirmed by the impulsiveness of today's price structure with its shallow retracements.
DHEma would be rising above 6015-20 today, a good trailing number.
The Hour chart below shows distinctively HH & HL since the 5477 rise, once made a HL @ 5500 & moved past 5611 to make a HH. That is the most elementary "Trend following"  technique.



43 comments:

Pattern Trading said...

Good morning master and all ...

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venkatapathy l said...

Namaste Ilango Sir and blog friends

LV

sandeep said...

Good morning master and all.

San said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and Friends

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NEVER GIVE UP said...

Good Morning Sir & All Friends.

amber said...

Sir ILango ji and everyone good morning

Renju S said...

Ilango ji,

What would be a probable target for "V"

Thanks,
Renju.S

Bala C said...

Good Morning, Ilango Ji

DNSHUKLA said...

Good Mng Sir and friends.

Raghavendra said...

Dear All,

JNSAR going above J10SAR implies "Top" is around ( Today + 2 days )for this wave.

Background : J10SAR leads JNSAR either in upmove or downmove.

1. When ever JNSAR goes above J10SAR in an uptrend the top was always made in a range of +2 days ( counting Day1 as crossover day on upside).
2. When ever JNSAR goes below J10SAR in a downtrend the bottom was always made in a range of +2 days ( counting Day1 as crossover day on downside)

Raghavendra

Parimal said...

Namaste Dear Sir and all friends
Have a nice trading day

Renju S said...

Raghavendra Ji,

Was this observation backtested with good amount of data?

If it has been then its a good Observation.

Thanks,
Renju.S

Sudha Rajesh said...

Good Morning Guruji and Friends

The_Unprejudiced_Observer said...

Good morning

@ raghvendra
thank you for sharing observation

Prakash said...

gud morning master and all frds

Suraj said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and All Friends

Stockathon said...

Good Morning Master and Friends...

Sanjeev S said...

Thanks Raghvendra for good observation

The_Unprejudiced_Observer said...

@ raghvendra
any observation during periods when JNSAR has whipsawed ?

Yash and Dhan said...

Good Morning Sir and dear friends.
I may book out today of my JNSAR trade if nifty future reaches 6078. Why?? no not because I think it is the top but because of our wonderful system JNSAR would give me 500 points for the trade taken on 16/4/2013. My first 500 points in single trade. Thank you sir for this wonderfully simple system.
I just love JNSAR.

Parimal said...

Hi Raghavendra
i highly appreciate your valuable contribution regd JNSAR and 10JNSAR
thanks a lot

Raghavendra said...

@ Renju ji,

This was back tested and shared in this blog some time ago with dates and price movements of both J10SAR and JNSAR.

Here is the post i shared ard 3-4 months back

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Dear Ilango sir , Shradha Saburi and All,

Observations on JNSAR and J10SAR

Since May when uptrend started from 4770,

Top is in : Day JNSAR crosses Day J10SAR on upside on Day TF (Intermediate top during the uptrend - EW1, EW3 etc)

For tomorrow too, we have JNSAR > J10SAR will have to see if it becomes true in coming days.

Bottom is in : + or - 1 day , Day JNSAR crosses Day J10SAR on downside on Day TF (Intermediate low during the downtrend - EW2, EW4 etc)

Bottom is in :

Example 1 : When Nifty made initial bottom @ 4789 on May 18, observe JNSAR and J10SAR values on May 17, May 18, May 21st here

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2012/05/nifty-intraday-update-iii_21.html

Example 2 : When Nifty made a bottom @5216 on 5th September, observe JNSAR and J10SAR values from 4th ,5th , 6th, and 7th Sep here

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2012/09/nifty-intraday-update-iii_6.html

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2012/09/nifty-intraday-update-iii_7.html

Top is in :

Example 1 : When Nifty made a top @5815 on 5th October, observe JNSAR and J10SAR values on 4th, 5th and 8th October values here

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2012/10/nifty-intraday-update-iii_5.htmNifty makes a high of 5449 on Aug 24th, Observe JNSAR and J10SAR values on 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 27th August here

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2012/08/nifty-ends-week-with-higher-tf-firm.html
-
Example 2 : Nifty makes a high of 5449 on Aug 24th, Observe JNSAR and J10SAR values on 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 27th August here

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2012/08/nifty-ends-week-with-higher-tf-firm.html

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Raghavendra

shriram said...

GM Master & JN Family,

have a gr8 day :-)

@ Raghavendra:
Check if obsv. was valid when market u-turned from 4531 & 4770

rajapvt said...

Thanks Raghavendra, I missed it somehow.

varun kumar said...

Good morning llango sir and DR sir

Renju S said...

Raghavendra Ji,

I have missed this post. That is really indeed a valid observation.

Thanks for sharing this info.

Thanks,
Renju.S

discipline focus said...

@The_Unprejudiced_Observer

Adding to what Raghvendra said and in terms of whipsaws, I have found what works for me hence sharing-

1) Calculate the ATR for days of nifty, if ATR value is significantly lower or is contracting when compared to 100/200 day ATR, generally their are high instances of whipsaws

Eg.- The period of Dec2012-Jan2013, in last 16-18 months, it was the most whipaswing 2 month period.

2)Whenever master confirms, its a trading period i.e. DHEma+20 and DLOEma-20. Nifty moves within those, whipsaw are their

I go for 60-70% of my regular position size, during these periods as a safeguard once Master has confirmed it.

Regards
Discipline

Parimal said...

Nifty at R1 at 6068

Ding A Dong said...

hello everybody,
if 63## is marked as wave 1
and 45## marked wave 2
then we are on wave 3 now and it should breach wave 1 level and rise further!!

Mater your supervision is requested.

Ding A Dong said...

@shriram
Agree

@ Raghavendra:
Check if obsv. was valid when market u-turned from 4531 & 4770
this is very vital info if you get back

tahnks

prakashbkc said...

Aggressively one would sell at the completion of "v"th or wait for the channel to break again to initiate a sell.

GM Master,

How do we know completion of "v" th?

Ding A Dong said...

many kept asking

How do we know completion of "v" th?

master said-
completion of "v"th OR wait for the channel to break again to initiate a sell.

hope it will help if we arrive at channel values

Abhi said...

Breaking of Hr High Ema /Day High Ema/Pivot can be considered as completion of vth. You can also consider the breaking of prev high 6019. These numbers would be close.

Sir, plz correct me, if I am wrong

Aditya Jain said...

sir and other blogmates
i tried posting earlier but somehow did not get any response. I wanna learn this trading system can anybody guide me about this or sir illango can guide me. i would really appreciate.
regards
aditya

Abhi said...

Soryy, Hr Low Ema

Amol Sharma said...

increase in VIX index

Ilango said...

New Post Done.

Raghavendra said...

@ Shri Ram & @ Ding a Dong,

Let me look at my databases...will follow up during the day on this request.

Raghavendra

shriram said...

@ Ding a Dong:

The maths suggests , that X-over of MAs does not have 1:1 co-relation with Trend reversal.

Trend Reversal needs 3 things:
1. OTM OI Addition to extinguish the TREND
2. Prev. RES / and or TL / Fibbo Exten. RES zone
3. hiFreQ osicll vibration

Simple Low-FreQ Filter (MA) x-over is not 100% as a signal

Ding A Dong said...

@Aditya Jain

As of now
please find the JNSAR number and at Technical Table (TT) and buy if the NIFTY SPOT (NS) crossed above it and sell if NS crosses below it.

please do read subjects under the heading
Always Start Trading with these (on your right side of page top)
good luck



Aditya Jain said...

thank you sir i really appreciate it and i will do as suggested. i would like to learn everything which is required so i can be a part of this blog and share my contribution. thanks alot sir.

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