Thursday, June 20, 2013

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Last week's close suggested a downward momentum to continue with a close below "5825". However, the Short term TA, with a close above DLEma on 14th, suggested a bounce till middle of this week and market did move upto 5863 on Tue & bounced upto 5828 yesterday and now poised to head lower.
EW's pref. view has been the completion of "iv"th @ 5863 and a move down. 
TA,  as shown in EOD's trend chart, has been down with Hour TA reaching OB & reversing.
JNSAR traders would experience an adverse gap down which happens occasionally in "Mechanical trading system which should be managed during pull backs; some would have saved their "shorts @ 5791" with a filter @ 5831.
Gap @ 5730-40, if not held, it could head to new lows below 5683 either today or tomorrow.
Weekly channel support is @ 5635 approx.
Strength above 5804(JNSAR/ 200dsma), weakness below it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trendlines can be drawn on all "time frame" charts such as month, week, day, hour & minute.
The larger the time frame more valid the supports & resistances.
The correct way to approach this is to know your time frame of trading and adopt it accordingly.
The best way is to keep all time frames side by side and take a cohesive study of them which could give clues to market's choppy actions.
For eg: Just looking at the 5-minute & hour trendlines/ channels, market could bounce many times and may look choppy but if you study it together with a day channel, it would look within that "day trendline" and you will be able to accept those choppiness as part of a corrective within a trend.
How to draw trendlines:
Initially you wait for a higher low to be made in an uptrend and then connect the lowest point to the higher low point. The more points the trendline takes support, more significant it becomes.
Once a high and a higher high is in place, a trendline could be drawn connecting the two highs and then take a parallel line of it to the "low point" to arrive at an alternative support trendline.
Many parallel lines could be drawn to find various supports & resistances. Using one's imagination, creativity, thinking out of the box, the trendlines may be drawn in various ways but they must result in arriving at critical points which should coincide with divergences/ OB or OS nature of TA.
How to draw channels:
When a parallel line of a trendline(connecting the bottoms) is done connecting the tops, it becomes a channel and a trending stock/ index will generally move within such a channel. Break of such a channel may warn us of a weakening of the trend and a new channels may then be drawn and if the new channel too is broken, a trend reversal may be taking place. More lengthier the channel, more significant its break down or break out.
You can see examples of these trendlines and channels in most of my charts. There are no secrets in them except your own imagination and experience.
Finally, use these in conjunction with other TA indicators and if possible Elliott wave possibilities(in fact, trendlines form the most basic & integral part of waves identification), the results will be extraordinary.

75 comments:

Bala C said...

Good Morning, Ilango Ji

Kumar said...

Namaskaaram GuruJi and Brother & Sisters,

Good Morning.

Have a Good Day. :)

Renju S said...

Ilango Ji,

My Pre-market view :

Support area of 5731-20(.736 and .80)may be tested and then try the 5770 previous support.

Yes i too hold shorts at 5811, will try either to square it of if nifty starts falling more than .80 or else close it near to 5770 in case of a pull back.

Thanks,
Renju.S

J.R.Julius said...

Good Morning Sir & Blog-Mates,
Have a Happy and Prosperous Day.

Camarilla Keylevels - Nifty Spot
H4@5850 ↑
H3@5836 ↓
L3@5808 ↑
L4@5794 ↓

*Individual Observation & Independent Decision Advised.

Parminder said...

Master ilango and friends,
Good Morning to all
Warm Regards
☺☺

gauresh59 said...

Our Prayers for the safety and well beings for Uttrakhand & Kedarnath.

O Lord,
We mourn the death and destruction.
And we pray for those who died in this recent disaster.
May their souls rest in peace.
May their families be comforted.

We pray for the living survivors.
Be with them, Lord, in this traumatic time.
May they experience Your healing,
In their spirits as well as their bodies.

We pray for the communities affected.
May they come together in solidarity
To rebuild and to affirm new life
Amid the ancient stones.

May Almighty give all victims enough courage and strength to fight this tough condition.

rama balaji said...

GM Ilangoji & all blogmates,
thnx a lot,am slowly learning

ITradeForProfit Daily said...

GM Master and blogmates.

SGX 5734 at day's low as of yet.

ALBELA HOUSE said...

R/Ilango Sir,Namaste n Namaskaar 2 all reader's.

sarvesh said...

Good morning , sir!

Parimal said...

Namaste Dear Sir and all friends
wish you all the best!

Bunty said...

Namaste everyone and happy trading

sarvesh said...

Good morning, Sir!

venkatapathy l said...

Namaste Ilango Sir and blog friends

LV

amber said...

Sir ILango ji charan vandan and everyone good morning

Que sera sera said...

master,

Can we use pull back to HLEMA to initiate shorts?
Pls suggest

Thanks.

amber said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhi said...

Hi..Good Morning everyone.

Kirubanandam T said...

Good Morning Ilango sir & all....

Amol Sharma said...

good morning all. Previous swing low 5770. watch out here.

Nitin Kadam said...

Today's Support & Resistances :->

Support :- 5780-5750-5705

Resistance :-5835-5865-5910-5935

Trend :- Down.

Strategy:-

Positional Buy Only above 5865.

Positional Short Only Below 5750.

Till then Sit back. Keep Track of TA.
Keep faith on your Study & Be ready to follow.

Happy disciplined trading to all!
Have a nice day!!

prakashbkc said...

GM Master,

Thanx master for introducing into the world of EW & taking few technical tools to read the market.
Also thanks for providing site of Tony for US market.
In OEW US S&P clearly showing -ve divergence in hr chart which helps me to carry PE of nifty of 5800 & 5900 .
Again, Master a lot of thanks for giving me a new insight towards market

DNSHUKLA said...

Good Mng Sir and friends.

prakashbkc said...

Master,
what is advise For person who is holding PE
means SL for it?

Nilesh Patil said...

Good Morning Master & Friends

anand said...

Master is great. Rules are great.
But ego kills us. Thanks for your guidance.

satheesh said...

Namaste Ilango sir and all,

Current Low at Month LEMA.

Renju S said...

Rupee and Mr.Ben is playing out very seriously...

Nilesh Ji ATR - 5628 (Target)

prakashbkc said...

According to ND sir,

Previous close : 5822.25



Last traded price : 5703.35

Breakdown occurred below 5755.05

Breakdown target : 5629

SL for short positions : 5755.00

Jay Mataji said...

@Master,


BN bearish flag target =12489-11800=689 point ,now 11800-689=11111 target ???

Parimal said...

I entered JNSAR long, gap has wiped out all ! what should i do, any suggestion from anybody will be highly appreciated!

prakashbkc said...

Master,

Today is gaped down opening this might be 3rd wave some EW wave If kindly explain this on ur chart?

Renju S said...

Nifty just got a support from previous low..it has a good chance to break 5683 today and make new lows..

Question : If this is the reality will 5500 hold in near future?

Sandy said...

Looks like an true impluse after a long time

Jay Mataji said...

Jnsar Short sl was 5831 and ns comes to only near 5829

Jay Mataji said...

This is first time i see that JNSar trade give big loss.

Prabhanshu said...

If i was having long position, I would prefer going long at 5683 (support mentioned by sir) in next month nf.
Just my random thought and not be followed

Raghavendra said...

Parimal ji,

Yes, JNSAR longs are hit badly.

Since the price has moved way lower with respect to all key averages (21, 34, EMA's )even on small time frames (2min, 5min etc ).

Price should catch up with these averages during the day. Rise to such averages currently at 5740-50 and coming down to be used to exit longs and take shorts in the direction of JNSAR.

Raghavendra

Anandha said...

@ Julius sir,

Sir nifty opened beyond the CAM levels. How do you trade in such situations? Should we wait for now ?

Abhi said...

5730 - 40 should be resell area (if 5690ns holds).

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

Equity markets are yet to adjust to the rupee depreciation. This adjustment is bound to happen before the Nifty resumes its upward journey. Gaps are no big deal. You need to reverse your trade as usual...:)

Parimal said...

Yes Jay Mataji
i have not seen so much loss in JNSAR trade!

suresh said...

REVISED cam lvls
ns: h3/h4=5768/82 l3/l4=740/726
nf: =5764/79 =734/720

satheesh said...

@ parimal,

It would be a very High risk trade to attempt a long at the low levels - factors supporting are Month Lema, and minor support of trendline in Day charts joining the lows of 5477, 5500.3 and previous low of 5683.

retracements for 5863 - 5686 are,
23.60% 38.20% 44.70%
5727.77 5753.61 5765.12

The trade depends on your risk apettite

Parimal said...

Hello Raghavendra
thanks a lot. since all is wiped out, better to wait some pullback if any!

NEVER GIVE UP said...

Good Morning Sir & All Friends.

Abhi said...

Hi,

can someone plz post nifty google 2 min chart link. Mine is not showing 2 min chart.

Yogi said...

Wow!!
Did Ilango really say a "Gap Down"? 100 points Gap down...I m stunned.

Anyway, I m just exaggerating. I know he just meant in a general way for JNSAR traders.

Yogi's Pre-Market
-----------------
Same as yesterday.

Supposedly, today's close ll turn 5-D downwards...Good Shorting opportunity.

Exit: when 5-D goes below 20 and 35-D triggers UP.

Regards
Yogi

gauresh59 said...

Our Prayers for the safety and well beings for Uttrakhand & Kedarnath.

O Lord,
We mourn the death and destruction.
And we pray for those who died in this recent disaster.
May their souls rest in peace.
May their families be comforted.

We pray for the living survivors.
Be with them, Lord, in this traumatic time.
May they experience Your healing,
In their spirits as well as their bodies.

We pray for the communities affected.
May they come together in solidarity
To rebuild and to affirm new life
Amid the ancient stones.

May Almighty give all victims enough courage and strength to fight this tough condition.

Renju S said...

Parimal Ji,

I was too long from 5811...planned to close it at 5720-30 or at 5770. But neither happened, so i am out at present. Will Take short if 5683 breaks.

When this system has given good profits for a long time..we need to accept loss once in a while.

Give little back to the system .. :)

Thanks,
Renju.S

gauresh59 said...

Namasthe ilango sir and friends,

Today’s quote received :

Always remember that your present situation is not your final destination.
The best is yet to come.

Sandy said...

Jay Matadi JNSAR Trade didn't trigger which is JNSAR + 20 closing for safe traders

satheesh said...

@ parimal, during eventful days with uncertainities - I usually go for options as a hedge. For eg., yesterday had you bought 2 lots 5800 PE which was trading at Rs.57 at close, you could have covered your entire losses - at least one put could have cut your losses by 50%. Though there would be no gain - atleast we would not have lost much.

Don't you worry - JNSAR will provide manyfolds which you have lost today!!!

If it would be of any solace to you - today's premarket high was 5925 :)

Parimal said...

Hello Satheesh
thanks for your kind response. i can not think of going long at this moment. if any retracement comes, will give little relief!

Parimal said...

Hi Satheesh
i had confidence in JNSAR trade. and also i forgot to take a hedge position. that would have saved much of the the capital !

SAM said...

I think this whipsaw... may be highest... from the INCEPTION of JNSAR...

Master Knows better...

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

Bonds freeeze....What next...:):)

gauresh59 said...

@ Parimal,

Read today's quote...Have faith in system, in yourself and in Almighty. He cares for all.

Such things are normal in business when we trade positionally. We have to accept it and we can manage well with our next trades.

Please don't be disappointed, dear.
All is well in the long run.

suraj804 said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and All Seniors and Friends

Guru - Trading Nirvana said...

VWAP comes around 5703 with 23 Lacs OI added up in 57 CE..

Sandy said...

Safe Jnsar sell is JNSAR - 20 closing / buy is JNSAR + 20. Also Yogi has improvised on JNSAR trading which is worth having a look for mechanical traders

mynac said...

GM Everybody,
Nifty already down with huge 125 points...with intra loss over 2%...will it go further down "for the Day'?...
dont know...

So now it's individual perception...

Bye..

Renju S said...

@SBSB Ji,

Funds from US will find way to countries where markets are developed, less inflation, less CAD and better currency.

And the bad part is we are not in that list..china, brazil, europe not in the list...Japan has some chance.

So all the funds will be in US or some good markets.

Thanks,
Renju.S

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

Gauresh has the last word. He is absolutely right. Thx Gauresh

satheesh said...

@ Parimal,

JNSAR is god to many - as God failed in Kedarnath disaster - JNSAR too failed today. :(

shriram said...

GM Master & JN family,

Time to forecast tgts for this impulse...

2 lables jump to mind

Dont know if they will come thru as the wave seems very Bearish

1. Wave v playing out as an Extension as follows:-
i 6229 5937 -292
ii 5937 6133 196 -67.1%
iii 6133 5683 -450 154.1%
iv 5683 5864 181 -40.2%
v 5864 5391 -473 162.0%

2. WXY in play , X done , and now Y in play as a 3wave

w 6229 5683 -546
x 5683 5864 181 -33.2%
y 5864 5691 -173 ** in PLAY down

mynac said...

A simple observation regarding above said subject..:
If Nifty wants to do so...(either new low or top) the nearest PE / CE starts to trade closer to it's Top/Bottom

suresh said...

can consider buying @ 5705 (sl=5680)
for exp tgt 5730

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

"God failed in Kedarnath disaster"??????

Satheesh ma'am pls pls take back that statement.

That is not fair at all.

God had nothing to do with it.

It is entirely man made. Why blame God pls??? :):)

Anandha said...

Hi Everyone,

Earlier we had an estimate on 6000 PE reaching 105 to 250 range depending on their views.

Now time to estimate the price for 5700 PE.

Anyone have any views where 5700 PE will head from here on. Today at 57 levels. Can we see 80 to 90 levels considered time lapse as well.

Parimal said...

Gauresh-bhai thank you very much for your valuable words! my best solace is that I have nothing more to lose!

Sathees
you are right, JNSAR is GOD for me (may be for many others also!). thanks again

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