Thursday, June 20, 2013

Nifty Intraday Update-II


75 comments:

SAM said...

Thanks Ilango Sir for sharing that writeup...

This is true in all sense... and such things happened earlier...

But JNSAR proved manytimes ....

There are occasions that JNSAR has given more than 400 points in a single trade...

But there are very less or rather rare occasions.. that JNSAR has given huge whipsaw (which was due to EVENT).


Most of the time such GAPs came in favour of JNSAR....

Cheers.

Ilango said...

bb said...
But one thing is proved, big event has effect on market. Technical people say it does not, but I think that is not correct. Today's example will prove that.
June 20, 2013 at 12:01 PM

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

It still proves Technicals capture most big events.

EW proved it as a "bounce only, retracing 50% to 61.8% of the last fall from 5863-5778".

TT showed "weekly momentum down" with daily completing the bounce of 4 days @ overbought zone".

Even the JNSAR+20 points filter was bearish.

For those who did not apply filter (including myself), the subsequent trades will make up more than the loss.

Only a person with bias would keep an eye on "Events".

Only a person who wants to get rich quickly would keep an eye on "Events".

For the slow & steady, Technicals will do. It has been proven on "soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

many days".

SJkolkata said...

Dear all,
Lots of hue and cry over JNSAR. Fortunately I was short with stop of JNSAR+20, which never triggered yesterday. The reason for being short was JNSAR + I was following the negative crossovers of EMAs in daily and hourly TF.
Caution needs to be exercised today since total buyers for NF is 8 lks against total sellers of 21 Lks. This kind of situation used to occur in 2011 and used to give drastic falls in the last hours.
Its just an observation to share.

bb said...

Ilango,
I was bitten no of times and hence this time I was light on trade, but I can understand Parimal's plight and hence this comment.
Lets see how we do in follow up trade.

Regards
BB

chetas said...

Sir,

Holding the 5683 the lows made on 13th and today low 5683.95, is there any minor bullish possibility or is it only a question of time to give way ?

SAM said...

I feel that some bounce may be there... till 5670 on NF is not taken out.

A fall will be below that only.

anand said...

Huge selling happened at 5989 NF.
Now again 21-55 EMAs nearing in 5 minutes..
More fall (<5683) expected?

rrknan said...

We have another Island reversal on the downside. Were there trades between 5720 and 5740 @ today's open ?

raman said...

What is the technique to be followed now, since the fall has been drastic and beyond reasonable limits? Go short at present levels, or wait for a level yet to come? Somebody please enlighten those of us not so savvy with tech.

ITradeForProfit Daily said...

The real question to be answered by JNSAR followers is

Why did they not switch positions from long to short in the first opening 2 minutes of the market, when JNSAR had triggered again?

Why did they get stuck to their positions because they got numbed?

Why are they still hoping this will be one more of those JNSAR whipsaws and their long positions will turn good?

Abhi said...

My conservative trade : Sell @5690 ns. Waiting for 5730 ns seems not a good idea. Stop will be 5750 ns. Have to keep a large stop loss.

prakashbkc said...

Master,

it is well true Technical rules not news
If a person saying news does matter then he should watch US market in a clear -ve div appeared in hr & in weekly chart it is appearing.

One should even short Dow fut in nse now also

Ilango said...

Has Parimal started JNSAR trading only yesterday...?

No, he has been here for years.

If you can't take a loss, get out of "speculative business".

Why cry over a "losing trade"?

And why get excited over a "winning trade"?

Pay attention to market signals and keep that consistency in your trading life.

It is the hesitation to follow will be the "undoing of many".

Trade with proper money management & position sizing.

In downtrend, longs of the bounces should be done with "caution".

I did alert to "Buy on dips cautiously" in Trade table on 17th Trade table because of closing above DEma and on 18th because of close above DHEma.

But it was reverted to "Sell on Rises" on 19th Trade table based on close below DHEma.

One should incorporate these in their "Position sizing" to "pay heed to market's undercurrents."

u.k.Raj said...

Ilango said...
@ Parimal,

There is a 3rd wave possibility on the upside if "5810" breaks;

and

There is a 3rd wave(iiird of (v)) possibility on the downside if "5778" breaks;
June 19, 2013 at 1:30 PM

Ilango said...
For JNSAR Traders, I have already answered when I addressed "rose mary".

If there is any adverse "gap reaction", we must accept it as part of "SAR Trading" disadvantage on rare occasions.
June 19, 2013 at 3:29 PM

At last minute I reduced my JNSAR lot to one.

ITradeForProfit Daily said...

Also yesterday, just before close, I had suggested that a big move is coming up and requested everyone to be on the right side of the trade.

Swami Shivkumaar said...

Dear Sir,
I closed my jnsar longs once we traded below DHEMA and took short position. I hedged with a call for the current series as we are in the correction. Now where can i do the part booking. If time permits kindly suggests and as per the wave count what can be the possible target for this down move

SAM said...

But I surprice why two days filter is not followed... of 20 points...

As far as my knowledge 2 days there should be filter of 20 points.. after latest JNSAR Trade.

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

"If you can't take a loss, get out of "speculative business".....

The complicated made really simple for all. What more needs to be said.

SJkolkata said...

Since the beginning of the clearing the nifty OI was in the range of 135-50 lks. I was not expecting anything drastic keeping in mind such low OI. Now that the OI has reached 2cr++, expect some major moves.

Renju S said...

BM,

No system is 100% perfect.

What we have in front of us and following is a system which is more stable and gives more winning trade with respect to other system we are aware of.

My guess is our failure percentage using JNSAR combined with EW and Fibbo is very very less, when compared to other systems which are more and give lagged signals.

I am sure and confident those who are following JNSAR for at least 6 months would have made at least 10 to 15 times of the money lost in yest whipsaw and today gap down trade. So why are we making a big fuss of the failed trade.

Lets learn the lesson what we learnt yest and try to improve our self.

Thanks,
Renju.S

shriram said...

@ all,

Pls note any SAR will have a lag and hence will give a signal late.

For eg- 5DEMA has a lag of 2 days wrt Closing price.

So, when trend reversal happens within 2 bars (days for Day T/f), then obviously any SAR will WHIP (becoz the wave has ALREADY TURNED, but the EMA does NOT KNOW SO :-)

This is why the maths will resolve the pain.

" The key to Hi-prob entry is Contra (hoping for TREND-BEND) esp. near Higher T/f Hi-Lo-cl EMA,

when the Oscill. / OTM OI indicates the samller t/f rise / wave is CORRECTIVE !

One just needs see how St.MnEMA rejected the wave for 2 days, to understand y the view to short was proposed ysday.

Blaming a SAR for loss is wasteful exercise.

deepak pinto said...

Sir
Intraday
Triangle since morning
5710 to 5683
Incidentaly
Almost same range triangle on 13 th last week .
Brokeout up.

Sandip Patel said...

All JANSAr follower... why did u forget Lead Indicator... on Chart... JANSAR if short here is favorable.... After almost 3 year studying i have taken a trade based on JNSAR with 5800 put.at 57. (not enough money)
Thanks to Ilango Sir...

Deepak said...

Dear Parimal

Regarding not posting for hedging yesterday, this is Ilango's Blog and even in the past Ilango has specifically asked us to focus on technicals and not the world market

So in the spirit of things posting otherwise was not right thing to do

Am with Ilango for over 4 years now a silent follower + fan of his

The purpose of my message was only to highlight that even if we are technically correct at times there are some events which can affect the movement of markets for short term.

It is in our interest to keep a track of these events and once they are over revert back to normal trading.

Thank you Deepak

cooldent said...

Margin calls from brokers.

More to come?

deepak pinto said...

So
----------<5680< no trade > 5714+++++
Intraday only.

mayank jain said...

New JNSAR trader = would have taken longs
Good JNSAR trader = would have taken calls
Experienced JNSAR trader = would have taken longs with puts as hedge and would have cut his longs first thing in morning and now sitting tight with puts.

Crorepathi said...

Many of them trade with employee mindset...but markets expect highest level of business man mindset not even a ordinary business mindset.

Sandip Patel said...

All JANSAR follower why did u forget to see Lead indicator on chart... JANSAR if short here is favorable.... Almost after 3 year studying jansar and his blog i have taken trade based on JNSAR 5800 PE at 58 ( Not enough money)
Thanks to Ilango sir

suresh said...

yesterday ns c > jnsar BUT < 5d-hema.
i quote sir ji statement
"Failure to close above 5d-hema would indicate weakness even though the close would be above
jnsar"

sarvesh said...

@ sir, it seems like adouble bottom,,please huide what should be the strategy now..dont give levels..but guidance, please. i got out of my short trades as stopped at 5811 yesterday and dint want to risk overnight..now where to enter?

sarvesh said...

stocks like SBI, RELIANCE and LT are still above their previous lows.

nileshwar said...

I told you all last month: "Sell in May & Go Away". Did any one listen???

Piyush Sharda said...

my 2 cents,
there is no problem that needs to be fixed.
positional traders have gaps. in favour and adverse
as long as we make a decent return its ok. we have more gaps in our favour.

ITradeForProfit Daily said...

5670 below even Bulls will become Bears

nath said...

@nileshwar,
sir,you didn't say where to go

Guru - Trading Nirvana said...

@Illango - Sathyamma, unga yedathula nan irundha yenna panniruppean ne therille.. sathyamma, unga porumai ku oru "big salute"...

SAM said...

Hi Cooldent,

Hi DR sir...

How r u...

Aly said...

I think there is too much of discussion on JNSAR and technicals. Everyone is trying to justify his stand.
Yesterday things were evenly poised and market could have gone in any direction. Had Bernake announced that Fed would not taper soon, it would have been the other way round with markets opening with huge Gap up and this would have become iii up instead of ii down.
In that case, Parimal would have been trying to justify JNSAR and all those who were short cribing on system.
Lets focus on the market. In my view (a) of iv seems to be done from 5686 to 5710, b from 5710 to 5684 and now c in progress with possible target of 5710. that should be a point to book longs / start shorting. alt. view can be v of iii complete at 5684 and now a of iv in progress. however this is my opinion only which are atmost 50% right.
~as usual trade with attention and caution

cooldent said...

SAM

Doing good. how r things with you?

Guru - Trading Nirvana said...

Just FYI --- Monthly CAM L5 will be 5664...

SAM said...

Yes m fine... but was busy with some project... so away from trading from many days....

Now just started taking trades from last few days.

prakashbkc said...

GA Master,

Can we consider croossover of 21hrsma & 334hr
sma for any type of technical clue?

rajan said...

tripathiji, you are very late,all invested.

cooldent said...

Silver hits lower circuit

Not fair. come on nifty u can do it

prakashbkc said...

Master,

In 5700 PE no liquidation nor addition of Put is there. What does it signify?
Any JN scholar kindly give the view?

Renju S said...

Yes nifty you can break even the Weekly channel.

Karthikeyan S said...

@Shriramji,

Can you please explain what "St.MnEMA" stands for? Is it current Month EMA?

S.Karthikeyan

Sujatha said...

nifty future 5653 R I P pls. and may bounce for a whileeeeeeee or else??? oops.. not able to imagine pity bears

Renju S said...

As per Nilesh ji,
Breakdown occurred below 5755.05
Breakdown target : 5629

Let nifty compliment another star to nilesh ji.

SAM said...

DR sir,

Come on cheerup the BEARS... sometime....:)D

Renju S said...

Sujatha Ji,

Yest you didn't catch the cat and neither bell the cat... Very bad.

Thanks,
Renju.S

SJkolkata said...

Prakash,
You must take into account the total series while looking for liquidation or addition.
FIIs have purchased options worth more than 7000cr in this series and we have not seen liquidation except some 1000cr yesterday. They are thoroughly long in Puts of all series and have been shorting the futures right from day one.
Who is long is the retail and they are are made the Bakra.

Sujatha said...

renju - hehe v both fell down :D :) me too one of the person who was holding the "aggressive longs" yesterday .. burnol applied ..i will feed good amount of milk to cat and will back :)

Julius - target done :D :) spot watching future...now


Renju S said...

oops did we see a weekly channel break...
Guys who trusted a short at 5683?

Sahil said...

BIG red candle on weekly......

Abhi said...

vth can target 5583 ns.

rose mary said...

Renju,

I entered 25% of shorts. Planning to add 25% more on break of 5620 & trial to cost. As of now no clarity on how big this downside continues..

Bhushan said...

Good afternoon Gurudev and frineds

Suresh ji, Truckload nifty worth it

Head and shoulders on RIL any one confirm?

Renju S said...

Good...i did close my long at 5700 and added a short at 5700 because SAR was short...added a lot more on 5683.

shriram said...

--> back

@ S. karthikeyan,

St.MnEMA is the 5MnEMA as of EOM May'13 (STATIC)

Aditya Jain said...

why are we discussing jnsar today people who were indecisive should have stayed away and waited for the meeting, good experienced traders should have taken short as jnsar was 5811+20 points 5831 which did not come anyways and who were really really good should have reversed position when first jnsar 5849 got sl triggered. please i request instead of discussing over spoiled food lets cook something new. am i right sir.

Jay Mataji said...

5627 is now 80% retrecement a last hope

Aditya Jain said...

when i started trading i was indecisive but never cried rather i asked julius sir and illango sir to gain knowledge i took long at 5949 and immidiately reversed my position at 5830 covered my position and waited for the meeting to finish the more you fight and cry the more you will loose faith try to learn where you are going wrong instedad of crying

Renju S said...

Ilango ji,

5627 is the 80% for 5477 to 6229...if Nifty stops falling down from 5627, can we say Wave 5 is done?

Thanks,
Renju.S

raman said...

What is the tech outlook on going long at present levels with a 20 pt stop loss?

Karthikeyan S said...

@Shriramji,

Thanks for the clarification

Renju S said...

Raman Ji,

On what criteria are you taking a long?
My View - Too Risky.

Thanks,
Renju.S

Jay Mataji said...

@master
Is there wave 2 possibility still holding up to 5629?

Sahil said...

Sir,
is it possible that 3rd fall from the highs of 5863 completed at 5687 and 4th completed at 5705 (a-5687 to 5711; b-5711 to 5684; c-5684 to 5705) and 5th fall is on?

Alt:-
from the highs of 5828.4:
1-5828 to 5687
2- 5687 to 5705
3rd is on..

Your view?

raman said...

@Renju S., Raman Ji is no expert, as anyone should have gathered by now !! It was only a query. Fortunately, for yesterday's longs I had a Call 5800 sold as well and recovered with minor fractures, fractures nevertheless!!! Now natural tendency is to sustain more injuries..!!

rrknan said...

raman,

all bse and nse indices are in RED, what in world makes you think to go long?

chetas said...

Avg Closing at 5655 levels

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