Thursday, June 20, 2013

Nifty Intraday Update-I


67 comments:

Prabakar said...

Namaste Ilango Sir and JN Family

Vishnu said...

Respected Sir,
Pranam
The Open and low as per google 10.05 and as per nse at 10.00 is same for ns at 5692.35 and for BNs at 11474.05 ..will this is of any help ..Just an observation.

mynac said...

This Hr...Huge intra call writing @ 5700( Over 25 lac in just first trading Hr. ) preventing to go up/supporting to go down from Nifty @ 5700

J.R.Julius said...

Previous Message not get approved!
Once Again Good Morning to Sir & All.
Have a Happy & Prosperous Day.


XH4@5740
XH3@5721
XL3@5683
XL4@5664


*Individual observation & Independent decision Advised.

Prabhanshu said...

My thought on jnsar as per rule.
17jun- jnsar:5849, triggered at end and we entered into long position.
18 jun- jnsar:5825. Since we were long, we needed sl as 5805 (5825-20). This got hit on 18th and we should have entered in to short position
19 jun- jnsar:5811. For our short position our sl should have been 5831 (5811+20) which didn't triggered on 19th (high made 5828).
so as per rule we should be in short position on 19th.

I am in learning phase so could be wrong and no offence to anyone. Posting this to get clarity or am I wrong in my analysis.

Amol Sharma said...

5662 trendline of falling channel.

Anandha said...

Evaluating CAM levels on Gold - 05 Aug and GOLDPETAL 29 -Jun

Both are below L4 now. Lets see how it works. Anyone have any plans for trading in Gold, please do send me to mail Id at

pudotaanandkumar(at)gmail(dot)com

rose mary said...

Ilango Sir,

I am planning to exit longs on break of 5683 Or trial till 5727-45 (23% retrace and DLEMA) & enter fresh shorts in small quantity...

Or

Add shorts in small quantity on break of 5683 & more on break of 5625 (80% retrace) & trial to cost.. if nifty reverses.

Please let me know if this is the right way to deal in current situation.

DR.SGM said...

Dear sir,Good morning.How do you view the possibility of zig-zag B of 4th of 3rd wave?

SAM said...

Satheesh Mam , I agree with you 100%.

@STBSTB.... God failed to save himself(Talking about BHAGVAN SHIV's Statue)... then how other things can be saved.

satheesh said...

Mynac Ji, goodmorning.

I always have a doubt regarding options. Why is it that the rise in OI is attributed to writing options rather than Buying options?


Parimal said...

Prabhanshu
yes, JNSAR level was coming down, that should have cautioned us! however, yesterday JNSAR was overshadowed by an event!

gauresh59 said...

@ Satheesh,

God never fails. It is our illusion only.
We have to accept whatever is happening..and should accept with smiling face to fight the situation with utmost good self confidence and faith to win.

God cares for all.

Abhi said...

rose mary, my plan is same. Now SL for my long is 5690 ns if I did not get 5730 ns.

General - Calculate % of hit/loss before jumping into some conclusion.
If you make your nerve calm, you will get success.

Ilango said...

@ Prabhanshu,

You are right to follow JNSAR with 20 points filter.

There are also occasions which proved that keeping positions based on "Close below or above JNSAR".

Anything you follow will have such one or two "adverse gap against our positions".

Let us not look for holy grail.

Let us not compare.

Jai ho... Jai ho.

"Consistency" is always tested by adversity.

mynac said...

Dear Satheesh,
GM,
my perception
Buying option is the best trading strategy for "small" players...but Big players who want to dictate market by their own way and have capacity to do so,used to write it...

Aditya Jain said...

goodmorning sir and other bmates,
i think jnsar sl did not trigger so we should have been in short side although previous jnsar got hit.

Prabakar said...

NS immediate resistance seems to be at 5708. For any intraday recovery/upmove, NS needs to move above 5708 and sustain.

rose mary said...

Last time when i hit by 100+ gap down, though JNSAR is long... i booked 100% loss immediately & didn't look at markets next 3-4 months.

This time i am already looking for next opportunity to recover losses... Nice, i am becoming stronger physiologically.. thank you sir ji!

Renju S said...

Rose mary Ji,

If your Risk / Money mang. allows you to hold the loss position till 5683...then its fine.

Yes you are right to make 5683 as entry point for short..but see to that the weekly channel is also near by.

Thanks,
Renju.S

Parimal said...

Prabhanshu!
when JNSAR long triggered yesterday and also on previous two days, how and on what perception could one enter a short trade with suitable SL?

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

Sam pls ... This entire Uttarakhand disaster is man made. Rains will come whether we like it. Stock markets will crash whether we like it or not. God has nothing to do with it.

He is neutral to all our whims and fancies and he lets the Law of Action and Reaction manage all this.

God never fails. It is our perception and faith that fails.

Prabakar said...

NS immediate resistance now at 5708. For intraday recovery/upmove, NS to move 5708 and sustain.

The current upmove may continue till the lower timeframe cycles to get adjusted with higher timeframe to continue with the trend

Vijikrishnan said...

rosemary

I am also under loss what to do lets cut losses

Amarendra said...

samajhne wale samajh chuke hain, jo na samjhe wo anari hai... Jai ho! Jai ho!

SAM said...

@Mynac

Can you guide what is the implication of Rise in OE of 5700 CE by huge 27lk and down in 5700 PE by arround 3lk.

shriram said...

Those tracking BN..

next tgt below 11,474 Bn is 11,250 spot

Sanjay Jaiswal said...

Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,

OI Table Update at 11:00AM, Pivot-5809, S2-5756, S3-5737, ATP-5701, VWAP-5701

Huge addition at 5700CE, a move above 5756 for the looks impossible, only positive for the Bulls is that not much covered at 5700PE level, Sell all rises…

Thanks & Regards

Yogi said...

@Rosemary
Never trade to recover losses...that can result in more losses.

Ilango has mentioned it earlier posts/chats...Trade with consistency...

For e.g. Divide your complete capital in say 10 more parts...that are you can loose (Mind it, that you can loose...I m not taking about Margin money).

Out of these 10 parts...Following JNSAR, possibly you ll loose 2-3 parts or maybe more...but when you catch JNSAR trend right...it ll rewards with gains.

Overall, with 10 parts...you ll end up gaining more parts, while your 10 parts remain intact.

Regards
Yogi

SAM said...

Yogi,

That is pretty good Money Management lesson.

satheesh said...

Thanks mynacji :)

Prabhanshu said...

Sir, thanks for clarifying it. I understood that one has to follow one rule and stick to it. Profit will keep on flowing with few adverse situation in between.

Parimal, as per keeping 20points additional sl on day jnsar rule, there was only short position yesterday and on Tuesday. Sl for yesterday short position was 5831
But as Sir has mentioned one can also decide based on day close price is above or below day jnsar.

Prabakar said...

@Shriram,

my target for BN 11115..

sandeep said...

rose be discplined n then nothing is immpossible rest our stories

satheesh said...

Gaureshji,

Yes - I accept - God never fails. but at times when things happen in such a way that shakes our confidence and belief - a small anger sprouts towards him - it is more like when our beloved ones do something we totally don't approve of - we get an irritation out of love - like "HE Should Not Have Done IT""- kind of - that is what I meant :)

SAM said...

@Prabhanshu, Parimal,

Sorry to come into discussion... I want to bring to your notice that ...

As far as I see yesterday was long trigger as per ILANGO Sir's Premarket trade table... as Sir also mentioned long position.. in TRADE TABLE at 5811.

J.R.Julius said...

Dear Friends,
Anyone know, where is Mr.Dinesh Rishi?
How is he? Missing him A lot...

Could not see him here & even in his
blog too!

Prabakar said...

Since the trend is down and an intraday gap down, the lower timeframe cycles are retracing/adjusting with higher timeframe cycles with time and not with price upmove, hence trading in small range....

Anandha said...

Anywild guess on 5700 PE target prices ?

Do you guys see nifty at previous lows at 5470 ?
Ilango Sirs, Road Map says that it is possible.

Expecting in this month or next month ?

suresh said...

using JNSAR in stocks,
how to calc sl ,
like v use 20 pts in nifty

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

There will be profits and losses in any business and that includes trading also. You cannot have profits all the time. Losses will come and a good trader will accept it and move on. The reward is in cashing the Profits minus Losses.

Again, if your losses override your profits then u need to take a relook at your system as well as your decision making skills and go back to the drawing board.

If one cannot accept losses then one should stop trading ASAP and should move on to a comfortable monthly salaried job preferably in the govt or public sector. No more trading.

Dinesh Rishi said...

Good Morning Master and copy to All


J.R.Julius

thanks for the concern

I will return with bulls

Deepak said...

Dear Friends - Lots of comment on loss incurred from JNSAR

For Trading it is essential to know whats going on in the world

Events like RBI MONETARY POLICY, IIP DATA, INFLATION DATA, ELECTION RESULT, FEDERAL MEET, DOLLAR INDEX, EURO SITUATION, US JOB REPORT are Important

Yesterday after 2 day Meeting of Federal Reserve they were supposed to give the minutes of meet.

Just recently on a mention of cutting down on reform the markets had tanked big time

This made it pertinent that either one keeps neutral in market of hedge their position either ways by buying call / put

Its a learning curve for all of us

Take care ... Deepak

J.R.Julius said...

Camarilla Weekly Levels
WH4@5945 ↑
WH3@5877 ↓
WL3@5740 ↑
WL4@5672 ↓

kemps said...

Hi Gm
JNSAR WEEKLY is good to follow.
Tension free with confirmed profit.

IndieTech said...

Master - unable to make fresh low after a sizable gap. Does it indicate any bullishness?

Parimal said...

Deepak
thanks. surprisingly nobody gave any advice about hedging yesterday! otherwise there are so many sermons here! and most are uncalled for!

gauresh59 said...

@ satheesh,

Yes, I know that you have lighten your heart by uttering such words for Almighty, even though you have utmost good faith in Him.

But we have been blessed by Him to act only and accept the results thereof given by Almighty. The blessings is also that we, human beings are capable to show our feelings too. This is the positive side that at least we can share our feelings with others, otherwise we would have become stones having our feelings in dormant state.

My two relatives have been victimized in this Kedarnath disasater. Still no news of them...we only pray Almighty for their safety...nothing else.

Any way, its ultimately God's choice what to do...!!!

Ilango said...

One of our disciplined JNSAR trader writes:

Dear sir,
Today is one of those days when I feel sad and happy at the same time.

Sad because there are a lot of our new JNSAR followers who -probably after having lost their hard earned monies in reckless trading would have come to our blog and would have started believing that they can earn back all that they had lost. They were ready to play by the book... but today hits them bad. They would be frustrated... here they are... after having lost so much.... and realizing that they had been wrong earlier... they are ready to correct themselves... they are ready... and they get hit real bad. More than being frustrated they are just feeling down. I'm sure a few of them might have started believing that things can never be fine with them. I feel sad for them.

At the same time I feel happy... very happy. Because out of this list of guys who would have lost money, there will emerge a set of people.. who are determined to fix things... instead of blaming the system they will try to figure out what exactly they could have done to have gained from such a situation. I have been suggesting on our blog to write down the trades and also the reason and how the trade performs... I don't know how many of them are actually doing that. Today is a good day when a lot of them... [if they want to be successful] will learn a good lesson and I hope they write this down in their books... so that it acts as a reminder. They have failed... and they have failed too early and too fast. But it is good. It will strengthen them... I hope, wish and pray that we don't lose any of our guys and that all of them embrace the learnings that they are getting.

Above all, I want to thank you sir. You showed me the way to liberation... the way to conquer the ego and go with the flow.

I'm sure sir that you too are concerned about them... they will be just fine.

Regards,

Aly said...

Guys,

Yesterday everyone knew that today is a big event day and also opinion was divided on whether to be long or short. Hence safe bet was to either to be out of the market or at least have hedged positions. Remember JNSAR is a number which is supposed to provide a way to trade with less whipsaws but JNSAR can never be 100% right.
anyways for those who are stuck with long positions, this seems to be a iiird wave and 1.618% of i has already been completed at 5690-5686. Nifty should recover 30-40 points "ideally" but there is no guarantee as iird waves can subdivide can nifty may go down to 5635 - 5645 easily. Any long position should have a strict stop loss of 5683
overall it seems nifty is bound to test 5600 as part of the HnS pattern being played out. 5863 was the test of neckline for the pattern

sarvesh said...

lovely and faithful interpretation

shr said...

Good morning Sir and friends,
Master had alerted us that the last week rise will play out by middle of this week and same is evident with yesterday's and today's prices.
He has also cautioned that after a big JNSAR trade the next one might not be much.
Week trend is still down as shown by the WK.5D chart. 9H.RSI also indicated cooling off and JNSAR confirmed by triggering short though by a very small margin with filter applied and finally closing price was well below the Day's JNSAR.

ITradeForProfit Daily said...

Now DLEma down by 100 points from 5810 yesterday to 5710 now.

Crorepathi said...

Hi Parimal,
To trade one lot of NF you need minimum 20000/- and today's gap should have wiped MTM of 11000/- . Still you have capital.
DR Ji says you should trade 1lot nifty with minimum 1L
Or you could trade with options profit will be less but loss will be less. Slowly with option profit you can have buffer money and then start with NF...
Our desperation is our weakness that's why rich becomes Richer and poor becomes poorer.

bb said...

But one thing is proved, big event has effect on market. Technical people say it does not, but I think that is not correct. Today's example will prove that.

sandeep said...

thks master for sharing somebodies write and asking us to beliveing in self with faith

Amol Sharma said...

looks like desending triangle is it ?

ITradeForProfit Daily said...

Sorry...its not DLEma..its the developing PP versus yesterday's PP

Parimal said...

Aly and (Venkat Guru) Crorepathi
yes, keeping SL of 5683.
your suggestion on option is followed up, thanks

ELECTROCRAFT SYSTEMS said...

speculation business will always give you some pain even after taking precautions. No pain No gain but if pain is not managed properly there will be only more pain and no gain.

satheesh said...

Gauresh Ji,

Very sorry !!! Our prayers with your relatives for their safe return. Lets hope for the Best.

cooldent said...
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