Thursday, November 1, 2012

Nifty's hour TA has affected the day TA.

31st Oct's EOD Analysis:
Month close keeps the monthly momentum intact with a comfortable close above MHEma.(5604).
Week remains in uptrend but presently in a sideways mode.
The correction that started from 5815 was expected to reach 38% initially and "if weakness persists", it could go towards the next crucial support @ 50DSma-5545+.
Hour TA displays some +ve div in rsi and is attempting a reversal which needs to affect the day TA tomorrow. 
Nifty in a consolidating range- you may call it a flag. BN touched the "flag bottom today" but ended below its DLEma.
Within this flag consolidation, the possibility of another low still exists.
Market could decide to reverse from today's low too.
These are two distinctly clear possibilities.
Hour TA points to the latter while the day trend points to the former. 
Below 5590-97, a new low possible;
Above 5660, a reversal is most likely.
This is the most objective possibilities for the next "two days".
As stated earlier, only a break below 5500 would call for "most bearish scenario" which has diminished with a healthy monthly close.
Always remember to follow your studies though an occasional failure should not deter you from "following".

13 comments:

Kranti said...

Just reading your analysis thrills me Ilango Sir..What a grasp on Index movements you have. Thank you for bringing so much sanity to the market movements Sir..

Theory and Practical on Nifty said...

Sir why do u think this as 4t wave in my view we are in 2nd of 4770-5815
please explain
regards

Ilango said...

@ Theory and Practical on Nifty ,

There is absolutely no way of labeling 5 sub-waves from 4770 to 5815 unless if you "stuff it in".

Waves should appear effortlessly and most obviously.

And it could vary person to person depending on their perception. Hence, it is a highly subject matter and should never ever be debated.

I have given my logic. And if you see differently, it is possible you could be right.

But I must believe "Only what I see" and never what others say. Hence, I stay away from "market men". Though I interact here, I am fully detached.

There are two possibilities that I see presently:

(4)th of 3rd/C wave may have been completed @ 5583 - This will be confirmed tomorrow.

OR

4th wave continues with (a) done @ 5583 nand (b) in progress.

In the (4) scenario, two distinct new highs are possible if 5 unfolds as against "abc"(3 waves only)

In the 4 scenario, a flat correction continues between 5815-5583 for longer time.

The major difference between your perception and mine is:

You consider an impulsive bull market

while

I consider a corrective bull upmove in a bear market.

shriram said...

@ ilango ji,

if we see the preff count C.1: 4770-5349 is almost eq. % wise to C.3 : 5216-5815

In such a case, we have 2 options
1. C.5 can be extended , i.e do min. > 1.382xc.1
or
2. C.5 will be short, restricting to Max. <=0.618xC.1, & we have 2 extended SUB MOTIVES from 4770 (1st &3rd)

Bob Prechter says this is a very rare occurance to see 2 sub-motives within an Impulse as extended ... but somehow am not comfy wid going by those guidelines alone.

what has been ur experience wid waves on Nifty, for this 2nd case ??

Dinesh Rishi said...



Bull mkt

require many ingredients

one of them is

IPOs which are missing


mynac said...

Dear Nilesh Deshpande..
Thanks..

Ilango said...
The major difference between your perception and mine is:

You consider an impulsive bull market

while

I consider a corrective bull upmove in a bear market.

Thanks...

Nilesh Patil said...

@mynac bhau,
subharatri

mynac said...

निलेश,
"शुभरात्री" आणि स्वीट ड्रीम्स ... उद्याच्या जे एन एस ए आर रिव्हर्सल साठी...:)

shr said...

Dear DRji,

I think they will oblige and fulfill the requirement.
On deck: Videocon D2H, Tata Sky D2H, Just Dial. Probably all those that were shelved "due to difficult market conditions" will be dusted and come back in new package; the continued selling of the family silver and then "Flag"ged off with another BIG Blockbuster.
Hot cakes? Gone in 60 seconds? Ah! the glory days...take your pick and bring a Fat Checkbook :-)

anmpatel said...

@master
its 50:50 (stock wealth blog)......JNSAR long 24 and JNSAR short 27. here also a cat on wall!!! but the heavy weight infy and reliance long....and hdfcbank, sbi, icicibank, HUL, ITC are short!!
any more comments from your side?

Manish said...

As per the Brokers'data

30%of accounts with them are still Dormant.
40%of total accounts have holdings but don't trade.
30%of active accounts have an average trade though the no.has increased in the last 3-4 weeks.

Where is the question of BULL market?

Manish said...

@anmpatel

All the Bank stocks yet to hit JNSAR.If that hits tomorrow time to go for Diwali purchase.

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