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Namaste Ilango Sir & all members.
@Prakashbkc,Right now, at 53.83 (f) USD-INR hit a nice channel support. A sustained move below it would imply severe weakness. Eur-INR broke first major support at yesterdays high of 70.18 (f). Below 69.55, much more can be expected. It also shows INR strengthening against all other currencies.A personal observation just for academic reason - USD-INR leading Nifty by 1-2 sessions for the last few days. I am not a firm believer in correlations for trading purpose at least. Since long, Master has hammered into us the importance of following only the technicals of the contract traded. So take this observation in that spirit only.
As of now, Week TA is the hurdle for the bulls. Last Month Close - 5620Last Week Close - 5664Last Day Close - 5645If EOD & EOW close above 5664, then after a retracement for today's high, the upmove may continue next week, considering that if the week close abv last week close may turn Week TA towards bull. Let's wait & watch.
Failure of Bulls to take out opening highs suggests Nifty may attempt to fill up the gap, so watch out for 5650 now.
I am in vacation today. So one more trash observation - Today's ORB looks important from channels. 5683 if protected and 5698 broken up, bulls may make more.
Trading Quotes I Love:*A Person with good self-discipline but a poor trading method will outperform a person with poor self-discipline but the best trading method currently available!*If You are Afraid to Lose, It is almost a Sure Guarantee that You will not Win.*Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.*Every battle is won before it is ever fought. - Sun Tzu*If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you always got.*Ever Follow the system... Never Follow the People.
Thanx....... Fire sir One more ? How would I recognize sustained move, does it mean with RSI below 70
@ wallace : check the premkt post for hawala i just wrote for you
@Fire: Nice work, thanks for educating and sharing your experience on the indicators.
GM Sujatha,Thought you might have clapped. Learned a possible gap up from your previous views. Hr. Stoch above 60 and positive Hr MACD gave gap ups before and believe the same today(not always)
Morning JN Family,So, we have the following:On Day TA : Price is trading > Dev.DHIEMA @ 5667On Wk TA : trading > Dev.WkEMA Bulls, will do well to conquer WkEMA EOW basis... which will also ensure a Wkly close > 5648 (Golden Ratio)And real Diwali if they manage a close >WkHi @ 5712...Bulls will singLets party, Lets party party, Lets party, Lets party party, Lets party, Lets party all the way ! Have a gr8 trading day ;-)
GM PARIMALWAITING TO DECLINES NS TO5659,5673-75 LEVELS
Thanks Atharva for Hawala explanationso shorting closer to 5705 ns with SAR @ 5705 since jnsar is long
@Prakashbkc,That is one of the toughest questions - what is a sustained move? Generally I take a 2 min. candle below/above my level for initiating a trade. Then I keep a SL below/above next res./supp. Do I still get whiplashed sometimes? You bet. But one thing I don't do, that is watching indicators instead of price-action. Price is supreme. Indicators may adjust themselves accordingly.
@Nerella Raja Sekhar,Thanks for your kind words. It's all in the spirit as taught by Master over all these years.
Fire sir, Noted in diary"Price is supreme. Indicators may adjust themselves accordingly." Thanx for educating us like slow learner
@prakashbkc ji,thas's why price action traders don't use indicators.
@ Fire ji,My best wishes for your Blog 1st Anniversary. I pray to Almighty to wish you best of everything in your life and in particular in your trading career.Thanks for the nice articles.You are always objective in your analysis as well as in making observation. It is demonstrated once again by saying " Price is supreme. Indicators may adjust themselves accordingly"With Warm Regards
@JRJ:wish to give a signal processing perspective to ur statement :"thas's why price action traders don't use indicators"Indicators are HiFreQ Pass Filters. i.e they r MEANT to identify correctives / CYCLIC modeEMA / AMA --> LowFreQ IIR Filters, meant to respond & trail LIKE CRAZY to TREND (hence the name infinite Impulse Response)SMA --> lowFreQ FIR filters(Inbetween both these parties). They try to find the middle path , but @ beenfit of smoothness, they suffer from SLOWER RESPONSE TO TREND Always keep this in mind while analysing :-)cheers
@Atharva.... you said 50 points above and below hawala price to go lonng or short ?
Dear sir & blogmates,I like to know whether the wave 5 is started, if so what is the target?With regardsP.Raman
Enna ma suja amma,Ur always behind poor hungry bulls.Serving idli all the time, now pls change menu to dosa or @least mini. dosa ?? ;-)
@Mr.Shriram,your signal processing perspective explanation is good.
Sir & blogmates,significance of todays high volume trade at 1st minute? probability of moveing above the value is more or less?
50% retracement level is generally considered for a reversal. it comes at 5699 for the fall from 5815 to 5583. Any move above 5699 will be another sign of reversal.5699/5702 ns may be kept a sl for intra shorts.break of 5680 will indicate intra correction for retracement trades at 5667, 5650, 50% at 5638, 80% at 5619. below that reversal. also a gap trade below 5680 for target of 5649. Gap-filling is generally considered bearish
B&S nifty..no it is buy once crossing closing price from low of previous series as sl if it is not suitable then 20 pts as SAR.. profit booking @ 50 / 100..this series gave short no nt day when it open gap down with SAR 5705..closed at 5605 @ +100 pts. alway part book @ 50 pts and trail..if JNSAR is favouring ..All the best
@Jayaraman,This objectivity is one of the great lessons I strive to learn from Master all these years. Allow me a few words explaining what actually I learned from Master & this University of his -Just a few months before I came to markets, my last job was building a computer network for a 5-star hotel in Calcutta. We were a team of four Network engineers, led by a brilliant person called Rajib Banerjee. Windows XP released just a month or two back and we were supposed to use that only. I got scared and requested Rajib to guide me as he was brilliant in all OS including UNIX. What he did was to make me buy 2 books on Windows XP, gave me a machine installed with that and forced me to complete those books in 30 days flat. The result was, after that month I knew XP better than anybody. So what I learned from him was - how to learn.That same principle was taught to me by Master here, for the market. And I consider that his greatest gift to anybody. And I remain grateful to him for life.
Last series NS OHLC prices are 5688.8 5718.75 5685.7 5705.30..so it is sell closer to C = 5705 with SAR 5705..other way through out series remain short below L= 5685.7 with SAR C= 5705 amd long above H=5718.75 with SAR C= 5705..
@Atharva..... thanks for your detailed explanation.
the last rise consumed 20 sessions, while this correction to 5583 took 18 sessions. Wave-logic says that the corrective should consume more time than the impulse. In that case, we might be having a complex corrective involving X wave. A move past 5700 and a close above WHEMA will weaken this possibility.
Not filling a gap is considered bullish
My Dear madamuniramaiahgood morningwas out for some two hours
Sir - 34ema is considerably raising.. break will give good downmove??? nifty trying 2 nearing that areashriram ji - mm.. against your views is difficult for me ... agree EOD close is above today's low or above 5699 definitely some "room" for "somebody" wishful thinking today's low shuld break @ EOD close. Prashant - think after long time...
In my yesterday posting it was mentioned that a move above 5698 may signal end of Wave 4 at 5583 if it happens today since that happens to be faster retracement of the fall from 5698.3.Today market high as of now is 5697.70. More over Wave 3 consumed about 20 / 21 days. As of now Wave 4 consumed 15/ 16 days from high of 5815 to 5583. Hence it is unlikely market will break 5698.3.Now it is the question of " x " wave OR possible ET in " G " leg of Wave 4. In any case both are indicating downside movement. If it is " x " the correction may take another 12 days to complete. If it is ET of " G " of Wave 4 then the correction may get over in about 4 days is my present understanding.Wish you Happy Trading
BN spoiling partyBN OH same and ORB broken down
@Sujathayes, was here always, but in silent mode.
gm dear sir ,seniors and freinds
It seems BN changed gears....
34 ema exactly tuched nd bounced back possibility to open for 700-10 intra?? :P
from my broker. muhurat trading nov 13 3.30 to 4.30 pm
yesterday one friend said:rounding bottom has breakout point at 5700 NF.
praba - deivameeeee already vandi top gear-la than irukku... venumna gear mathi kezhe vanga
@DRkuch karo bhai...thoda aur push karo....usko bhi DRSAR kudao....
New Post Done.
looks nifty future 5min chart.... descending triangle....touch upper TL and back....
P.SNot 3.30 its 3.45 to 4.30http://nseindia.com/content/circulars/FAOP22019.pdf