Friday, August 1, 2014

Nifty confirms a larger (4th wave) correction...


31 comments:

kalyani said...

what is nifty future open interest 1.24 crores as per nseindia or 1.60 crores as per religare . any one can clarify pl ?

mridul deka said...

@Illango sir ,

FII net sale -1072 cr n DII net buy 1074 cr. then who is the net sellers (retailers)

kalyani said...

if nifty future open interest is 1.24 crores only, then limited downside and huge upside potential ts there.

sanjay mishra said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Immortal said...

This widespread global selloff is too early to write off bullish setup.....bank nifty has formed gravestone doji pattern today and do not concur with market topping out....we have rbi meet on Monday and will await for further evidence for any kind of larger correction....After a downtrend, or a pullback within an uptrend, or when it�s formed at the support, the appearance of Gravestone Doji could signal that a turning point is nearing (i.e. potential bullish reversal).

vksoni said...

Good evening ilango sir and blogmates...
A non technical obeservation
Trying to take clue from open intrest range. july month expiry starting with max oi range of 7000-8000 a 1000 point range.august month start with 7300-8000 a 700 point range.now i am taking 60% (approx golden ratio) of both ranges ie for july it is 600 and for august it is 420.
July month max oi 8000-600=7400(low made 7422)then a 400 point rally (7841)7800 is 80% from oi lower range
August month max oi 7300+420=7720(high made 7717) Downside tgt 80% from upper range 8000-560=7440....???

On the other hand 60% from current oi higher range 8000-420=7580 is to be watch as support
Conclusion---Taking 7580 approx as pivot downside below 7580 is 7440(flat c in ilango sir chart)
Holding 7580 approx 80% of oi range ie 560 point from lower range 7300+560=7860(brodening top upper boundary)

rashmi said...

Dear vksoni can you calculate fr june too?i dont remember the oi range.

vksoni said...

rashmi,
i also not remember and searched too but not able to find.If anybody give the range it will be helpful.

vijsa said...

kalyani ji u r right nifty OI is lowest

S N said...

Sir

When you say larger 4th wave correction, do we take the rise from 5933 to 7841 as the 3rd wave ? If so what could be the target of this 4th wave ? Assuming a minimum of 38 %, it can reach 7100 approx. Can we expect this big fall ? Also, 3rd wave has taken 49 weeks approx. Can this fall take 19 weeks approx ? Pl pardon my ignorance and enlighten the readers with your views ? Thanks.

SN

S N said...

Sir, My apologies..3rd wave from 5933 to 7841 has taken 26 weeks approx and not 49 weeks. Hence can this 4th wave take 10 weeks approx and touch 7100 ?

Regards

SN

rashmi said...

Soniji for june 7000pe and 7600ce had highest oi

vksoni said...

interesting...
oi range 600(7000-7600)
60%= 360
max oi 7600-360=7240(low of june 7239)

rashmi said...

Very interesting!!now lets see if 7580is respected or no

Piyush Sharda said...

sir,

pls check days high.

@immortal
I just checked credit policy is on 5th tue I think

vksoni said...

Rashmi
Let me clear,
Based on above observation weekness trigger at 7717(7300+420=7720)
(Nothing new in it its golden trade of yesterday )now sell in retrace of fall from 7717 for minimum target of 7440.
Which gets confirmed with break of 7580.


Rajesh Singh said...

@vksoni, very interesting observation.So seems like 60% will act as support or resistance for opening day highest OI. Breaking either side can decide trend. For Aug month both support and resistance hit on 1st day. Lets see which way it breaks. Hope your analysis works which will be a great tool to our kitty

Rajesh Singh said...

@Piyush, I also checked, Credit policy is on tuesday,5th Aug

rashmi said...

Dear soniji its surprising to see how the golden period works on all matters be it oi or nifty levels.all the best

Natti said...

Dear soniji what is the time deadline you take for max oi

vksoni said...

Natti ji,
For time deadline i think more month and more data need to be analysed.
Presently i taken just two month data.
I think this type of strategy use by big players who write option.just a thaught
They write option at 60% with sl of 80% of oi range.so mostly time factor is first 10 day of series coming in mind.

vksoni said...

And presently i take oi range of first day of series.

vksoni said...

July expiry first day max oi range 7000-8000
Aug first day max oi range
7300-8000

vksoni said...

Better read as time deadline for taken oi range is first 1-2 day of series
And 60% lavel to be watched within first 10 day.

Immortal said...

pardon me for getting the day wrong...but its the underlying event that has to be focus here to read the likely movement ahead next week...I am sure even an amateur chart reader can see a potential IH&S pattern on bank nifty...also, US markets yesterday have recovered from the lows and made a hammer pattern at 16500(Dow) suggesting a likely upward move next week..

All these pattern needs further evidence before we conclude emergence of Larger correction or continuation of bullish setup.

I am bearish on my bi-annual assessment of market outlook basis my below post...

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2014/05/nifty-celebrates-event-with-huge-gain.html#more

S N said...

Soni ji

7240 BY WHAT TIME FRAME ? Would appreciate your views ...Thanks

SN

vksoni said...

SN ji,
Cant understand your question
If you asking about 7440 instead of 7240.
When it comes
Only market will tell when it come or not come.
Concide these lavel with regular ta .and rest follow the market as sir said managing trades is daily business.

ApproachMathematical said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
vksoni said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rashmi said...

Soniji ,i am sure coz i sell options of the strike which has highest oi depending on market conditions.

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