Friday, June 27, 2014

Nifty Intraday Update-I


43 comments:

Ilango said...

Prices have fallen from Pre-Mkt's res @ "7528-43"(7539).

Part booking could have been done @ 50%-61.8% of last rise from 7482 to 7539 at 7504-11(7509).

If prices are able to move up above 7525-29, the 61.8% - 80% of last fall from 7534-7509, an intraday reversal/ minor rally is likely at which point only shorts could be closed.

Guru Krishnan said...

@Master -- idhukku mela clear ah trade plan solla mudiyadhu.. Thanks Master

Ilango said...

I never read "Phantom of the Pits"; but these two rules sound quite good.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------Ravichandran Ravichandran
9:22 PM (13 hours ago)

to justnifty
I would like to bring Jessie's two rules for the attention of our group members:

Phantom of the Pits – Rule #1

IN A LOSING GAME SUCH AS TRADING, WE SHALL START AGAINST THE MAJORITY AND ASSUME – WE ARE WRONG UNTIL PROVEN CORRECT! (We do not assume we are correct until proven wrong.) POSITIONS ESTABLISHED MUST BE REDUCED AND REMOVED UNTIL OR UNLESS THE MARKET PROVES THE POSITION CORRECT! (We allow the market to verify correct positions.)

Phantom of Pits thinks a trader should enter a trade by assuming he is wrong until he is proven correct. For this part, it’s just a technique to have a different mindset so that you will stick to the second part better – get out as soon as you can if the price does not confirm. This is exactly the same as how Jesse Livermore took the stop loss with the use of his probing method.
Taking stop loss is a very basic principle for stock trading. For many novice traders, if they could always follow this rule, they would never become an involuntary investor - the biggest mistake in stock trading. Even for experienced traders, you can see they break this rule here and there with many kinds of excuses.

Phantom of the Pits gives you a new standpoint of view by assuming you are wrong until proven correct to enforce you to overcome the human weakness. Anyhow, this is probably the most important rule in stock trading. You must find your way to follow this rule, no exception.



Phantom of the Pits – Rule #2

PRESS YOUR WINNERS CORRECTLY WITHOUT EXCEPTION.

The way Jesse Livermore built up a position is the same as pressing the winner while some may refer it as “pyramiding”, which is an important factor to succeed in trading business.

Combining with rule #1, you always lose small and win big. Could you come up with something more wonderful than this situation?

You see, if you always follow these two rules, the other fatal mistake “averaging down” can never happen, because you just can’t. However, for many people, they are confused with trading and investing. They think they are trading (because of the lure of easy money) but turn into involuntary investors someday somehow, and what’s worst? They start to average down, sometimes all the way down. It might work a few times if you are lucky, but for just one time that it doesn’t work out, you are done the journey of a trading dream.



Download Phantom of the Pits

Web version – you can check it out here.

Digital version (pdf) – click here to download.

Prabhanshu Raman said...

7492-7466 is the support zone. Breaking this we may see good fall.
I am not sure about below and dont know how it will turn out.
A hns is formed in nifty spot. Break down below 7490-96 will trigger it.
T1 7387, t2 7280 sl 7542

Ilango said...

Prices are getting resisted at 7525-29...

Minor strength above 7530; weakness continues below 7525-29 & confirmed with a break below "7517-13".

Prabhanshu Raman said...

See green trendlines for hns

http://prntscr.com/3wxork

shriram said...

@ Prabha: The HnS will become real H-prob. if there is a way to confirm that the rise from 7441.65 NS is a 3wave (unstable rise)... is it ? open ended Q. answer @ peace

Prabhanshu Raman said...

Sir, do you think the hns I m seeing is correct?

Ilango said...

Trading below "key averages-21 & 34 Hr smas", keep the "weak below points ready" - weak below 7518.

Ilango said...

@ Prabhanshu Raman,

Which HNS...?

ravi said...

illango sir pls send me the chart of ranbaxy.

bb said...

Ilango - You call on Ranbaxy please.

inception84 said...

Master, Fast rise between 5 & 20 sma has been negated?

Prabhanshu Raman said...

Sir, this one
See green trendlines for hns

http://prntscr.com/3wxork
June 27, 2014 at 10:58 AM

Raghavendra said...

Ilango sir,

Can we say that - rise from 7482 to 7538 is "a" - current up-down movement as ""b" taking shape of a triangle and expect a sharp rise as part of "c" to complete larger "B" post X and A. ?

Considering that 11 AM closing in both BN and Nifty above hrlema.

Prabhanshu Raman said...

Shri, you pointed correctly that is I have doubt

Ilango said...

@ ravi,

I do not have the chart of ranbaxy;

This stock has been trending up from 305 and have had two corrective phases - one 374 to 335 and the other at 487 to 430; it has now resumed its uptrend, clearing multi week highs at 487.

If it is resisted below 525, approx, it may again get into a trading mode of Rs.50+ from its highs.

Please, do not carry forward a short position of an uptrending stock; if you want to do so, select a stock that is trending down and then "Sell on rises & hold".

Lastly, keep a SL for any kind of position.

Ilango said...

@ inception84 ,

Yes; you can see it in the TT that 5 dsma(7533) has moved below 20dsma(7541)

Ilango said...

@ Prabhanshu Raman,

No, I do not see.

ravi said...

sir pls suggest me any such stock which is in down trend.

Ilango said...

@ Raghavendra,

With small price range, it is difficult to label them- what we have done is very tentative ones; I should avoid it as it could mislead.

Prices below key averages -for intraday;

Prices trending down - for Day T/F.

Prices, on the last day of the week, keeping below WHEma.

Bias down but prices need to break down below the "Day channel of 97 days at 7481".

shriram said...

ABC done ? Also a H-prob bull flag has formed.. Brkout > 7525 NS, 5min close
Tgts
T1: 7525+ 30 = 7555
T2: 7525+ 57 = 7582 NS

Ilango said...

@ ravi,

I will name one by one of the stocks that I monitor regularly for trading based on their last week's close:

Icici bank

bb said...

ilango - Thank you for your views on Ranbaxy

Prabhanshu Raman said...

Bul flag in 5 mins holding 7502. Bo above 7539, t1 7559 t2 7586 sl at 7528

Ilango said...

Tata Motors & Tata Steel are weak but yet to confirm in week T/f.

Sonu said...

@Ilango Sir,

Zig zag seems done from 7532 or will be done around 7500?

Kiran said...

TCS is going only one way today

J.R.Julius said...

Price Action:
Buy Confirmation above 7544 [till sell on rise active] target for 757X range
Breaking D.L will initiate 2hrs L.Brk Sell target for Y.Close & Y.L.
Also one can consider Today's CAM h4 & h3 for trade entry.

Ilango said...

@ Sonu ,

Based on the time taken as a consolidation, it is more than normal - suggests of weakness; hence, I do not take it as a zigzag;

I could be wrong.

Best way to deal with it is use the "Bias" and the last fall retrace to manage.

Sonu said...

Thanks Sir,
"Based on the time taken as a consolidation, it is more than normal"
Could you please elaborate this? Do you mean time taken since yesterday low?

Ilango said...

@ Sonu,

Your 7500 is done.

Weakness would start below this & the day channel at 7481.

This is the zone wherein market can "make up its mind to go for a reversal" or "continue its correction".

Stay alert.

Whatever may be your "Bias", manage your position with a small SL.

shriram said...

Bull Flag negates ...

Raghavendra said...

Thanks for your view sir.

Ilango said...

@ Sonu,

The consolidation was meant for the rise from 7482 of yesterday's low to 7539 this morning.

If "abc" done from 7539 to 7501, the time taken is a bit long;
but it happens with 2nd waves sometimes.

Oh!... It has broken below 7501...

shriram said...

** or rather to b precise, Bull Flag becomes low prob as it went below 61.8% of 7482-7539 ... if price does not make a LL & takes out > 7525 will still satisfy the Pattern !

Ilango said...

We have seen 2nd waves retracing 99% too; hence, we'll keep a watch on 7481.

Strength above 7517 & 7524.

Prabhanshu Raman said...

Spotted just now. Hns in tisco , broke down below 524, t1 517 done t2 510, sl 528

Prabhanshu Raman said...

Bhel- big bear flag in making. Break down below 242, t1 227 sl 250.

Aly said...

Dear Sir,

My two pence: 3rd waves dont believe in filling the gaps which may mean that still some consolidation is left in nifty.
~Just an observation and may be proved wrong by market

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