Price is in-between R2 7566 ---- R3 7623 for the day...
Guru ji charan vandan and everyone good morning
"IF" this is a new Impulse, then per Bell Curve maths, price will try to seek Mean in range 7650-7690 NS, with Mean @ 7670 NS (with 68% chance today).. tats a good Intra-spike to look ahead to & achv the +WW T1 on Hr TA
(7700-7442) --- .618 -->> 7601 Yet to be taken out... watch out for confirmation...
Any specific reason to consider possible retrace from 7494 instead of 7481?
ATR based tgt for this breakout as mentioned by ND is 7675.... I remember Ilangoji's statement.."all studies conspire for the similar thing at times"
GM Sir and friends. Sir, 5 waves from 7482 done?
PSLV launched successfully, having built a good launchpad expecting BN too!
@ The_Unprejudiced_Observer, Prabhanshu Raman,From 7494, a 5-waves is almost done. This wave is the 3rd wave from 7482; keep an option for waves sub-dividing based on inputs from OI data & developing technicals/ EOH & EOD closes.
Good Morning Master and Friends.....@ Master your Views on ICICIBANK pls
Some aggressive writing happening at higher level Callshttp://www.niftytrader.in/nifty-live-change-in-oi/
Dear Shriram,I believe you are referring to Gaussian distribution from which STD/volatility is derived and 68% probability for 1 STD movement. But can you please elaborate how you've interpreted this for today's upmove in relation to the mean.thanks,Pradeep Muthappa
@ Excel Punter: Work out last 5yrs data when price starts trading from below to come up & be > DHiEMAThose data pts have been modelled into a Bell Curve.. And their mean & Std Dev.1 has been back-tested.
This chart should cheer the bears:http://www.niftytrader.in/nifty-intra-pcr/
@Sonu -- My Observation on PCR ( in an Uptrend ) as long as its between 0.88 to 0.99 its still in bullish zone.. When its between 1.00 to 1.30 I see it as sideways or price is in supply zone or getting resisted from top... once it crosses 1.30 then Bulls have overpowered the bears for major run up....Same can be seen in downtrend too... (vice versa) ..
"Situation Awareness" --> what to see, whenNF is the MAIN SWORD of ATTACK (becoz it moves more than any other instrument can). MARKET MOVERS will always take the biggest bets on NF NF has added 5.3% OI intra wid rise, & trading > VWAP OI @ start of series is a mix of naked shorts & Hedge to Long Futurz.... Options OI stand-alone , makes more accurate sense from Wk2 in a series & v strong guidance from Wk3, when positions get built up purely to eat prem.Where are we in July ??
@Guru Sir,The PCR has fallen during this rise (80% and JNSAR cleared effortlessly). The rise in the opening session looks like an impulse and I have observed aggressive Put writing during impulse waves (generally). Here we see the opposite. That's why I see it as bearish than neutral sign.
@Sonu - I have not yet earned "SIR" status :P you can call me Guru...Yes I agree with your statement when you see with respect to the entire PCR.. What I have mentioned is for the top two volume contracts... when you see the PCR for (PE 7400 and 7300) and for (CE 7800 and 7700) their PCR comes to 0.68 which is bearish and falls with your anaysis..Same way take the top 5 traded (volume) of calls and puts and derive the Resistance and supports and its Mid point is always the resistance or the support for the day... at present it falls at 7603..Once price moves > 7603 on hourly basis we can assume it will reach the resistance and vice versa.. Hope I have a cleared some points...
Thanks Guru,Do you also take clues from volumes? The volumes are also not in line with the rise. See volumes of bank stocks (compared to the average daily volume).http://www.niftytrader.in/nse-stocks-volume/
Dear Sonu and Krishnan,Excellent discussion between you two... and a great site Sonu.. Just wanted to say that my EW count also supports bearish view... with current upmove a trap...
@Sonu -- nope I don't see the volume of individual stocks.. I give weightage to the MID POINT mentioned above, most of the time Price respects it.. and OI data is RAW data available..
Namaste SIr and all, BN Day Contracting Triangle Breakout above 15290-15300 Hour contracting triangle BReakout above 15275 JN sar - 15232.
hello friendsnifty update on blog
New Post Done.
Resisted at dhema+30 ie 7604