Friday, October 18, 2013

Nifty, asserting with its weekly trend, moved up sharply in its (5)th wave when it mattered the most..


7 comments:

Aly said...

Dear Ilango sir,

Nifty has closed above the trendline connecting 6093 and 6142 previous highs. On the charts it looks like an Inverse Head and Shoulder. It has very bullish implications as the head to neckline distance is approx. 1000 points. At the same time it is said that if a HNS pattern fails to materialize, it has very bearish implications.

Can you please share your experience / studies regarding this if any? Also if you know how to confirm the pattern or its failure

bizagra said...

Ilango sir...strange..day lead indicator didnt moved up today....

Pattern Trading said...

My Dear Master , charan sparsh...

Hello All blogmates..

Nifty chart update : Click Here

shriram said...

Random Words:

A friend keeps telling me how to DEVELOP CONVICTION in TA... after all isn't it the Single Most Important Thing to successful trading ?

I thought over this a bit.. and the answer which seems apparent to me actually is NO.
ONE SHOULD NEVER HAVE CONVICTION !!

Sounds funny ?? Lets explore the madness of the HUMAN MIND then for some insight

Moot Q 1: What is CONVICTION ?
Ans: <> & will be seen / proved in REALITY, in the time to come

Moot Q2: What is TA?
Ans: TA is the study of speculation. TA basically focuses on using history of price activity , to make <> predictive models.

So, pls see the highlights of these 2 queries:-
--> "Belief that ur are right" ; and
--> "Hi-probability"

Both these words have DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY. Lets drill down a bit...

1st :
Traditional TA is subject to Probability, so its never 100% right. And that is because traditional TA is the study of history & is hence SUBJECTIVE to an extent.
To make TA "High Probability", we have RULES / STRICT ENTRY TRIGGERS that improve the STATISTICAL CHANCES OF WINS

2nd :
If UR BELIEF IS IN A SYSTEM, THAT ACCURATELY REFLECT REALITY, then pt1 will be sufficed & Aal Eej Well...

But what if the BELIEF IS MISPLACED??
There is a WISE SAYING, there is a very thin line separating Confidence & MIND MADNESS

Take the example of EW (constructively pls) -->
Just because u studied Prechter / Neely / Ramki & can label waves & post jazzy charts, and just because you spend serious time in making those smooth charts in the 1st place, DOESNT MEAN THE LABEL IS --> REALITY.
But MIND / EGO / "ME Bhaav" ,gets V angry when HARD WORK / TIME on LABELING goes waste & hence FORCES one into BELIEVING THAT WHAT "I" LABEL IS THE GOSPEL TRUTH !

But thats FOOLING OURSELVES ONLY...

Ok, so summarizing the insights :-
1. ALL MATHEMATICAL / MECHANICAL TRADE SYSTEMS THAT TRIGGER & TRAIL HAVE LAG & hence will not work 100% of the time.

2. Traditional TA patterns are amazing when combined with SCIENCE, but stand alone are Low-probability (need Confo signals, from Indicators which is nothing but SIGNAL PROCESSING FEEDBACK)

SOLN : RISK MITIGATION / MONEY MGMT --> STOP LOSS

So, the answer my to my Dear Friend's CONVICTION QUERY, is staring us in the face...
1. Always be CIRCUMSPECT of the Set-up (as TA itself cannot be 100% ever)
2. Always 1st explore R:R & 1st place the STOP LOSS ORDER
3. Try to keep tabs on own MIND & try to be aware of & remove MIND's MADNESS

MELT UR "I" , & SEE THE ULTIMATE SUPREMACY OF PRICE WITH THE INNER EYE

And that, my friends, is the only CONVICTION "I" have to offer, as of now, about Trade & TA :-)

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

Shriram u r absolutely spot on....

But there is the human mind and there is also the mind of the Universe.

What the human mind may propose....The Universal mind can dispose any time however much the human mind may be convinced about its probability.

Three basic checklists I have to be successful in trading ....but they are very very basic.

1 A structured successfully time tested back tested mathematical system
2. Risk free unleveraged capital that one can afford to lose
3. Quiet, calm, patient scalpel like execution capability.

However, even after having all the above three, yet, yet, the Universal mind can trip u if it u r not fit to be at the other end of the law of karma to receive the benefits of the above three checkpoints.

So, the bottomline is....."Jai Shri Ram" or whatever one has faith in....:):):)

San said...

Bank Nifty Weekend update: CLICK HERE

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