As the Technical study suggests,
1. Trendline violation would have fetched a bonanza.
2. Directional but lag indicator would have directed you in the right direction.
3. The lead indicator would have led you into an enriching fall.
4. Trend following methods would have shown you the trend in time.
5. Moving averages would have moved you to the right path....
all these would have happened if you have not resisted these. In life too, things should flow like a river and when you resist them, the result will be "imbalance" and missing of opportunities(that are obvious).
So relax and let the market and its derivative indicators/ methods guide you in future. There are more opportunities ahead.
The 4th wave ahead will be hugely choppy in the coming days. Hence, trade those points keeping a broader range for which the remaining two days will throw up the bottom range.
15 comments:
dear Ilango,
good morning.
please take a note that y'day Nifty fut open interest increased by around 60 lacs and now total OI is around 3.94 cr which is very hudge and can lead to high volatility and short covering.
Dear Ilango,
In case there is a rally at what point of the rally would you say that the trend has changed. The huge build up and the kind of aggressive call writing that is going on with premiums at 12 rupees indicate a lot of complacency on the part of the bears. Short covering rally is not far away maybe today or else tommrow. But where do you think you would change you view from a sell on rise to buy a fall? Would you wait for new highs? or would you look at a break of 5120 our all important level which we shorted?
Very Good Morning Ilango.
Nice NPV - poetic and philosophical TA.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
hi..Doc.,
Thanks a lot. You have closed your shorts at the appropriate time. I, too, suggested the same.
You have a regular commentary on OI analysis.
hi..Kingpin,
I would look for a test of 200SMA in the coming day and holding well as a first sign of a reversal. Till then a 50% or 38% rally to either 5070 or 5010 as a place to initiate a sell. Will fine tune later.(A 61.8% rally would be 5125, though I do not consider them presently.).
hi..Rajagopal,
Thank you.
Now Nifty faced resistance @ 4910 and came down to the Pivot area of 4888 and rallying up and that is a one good entry point. Next resistance is @ 4930-4940.
and important to watch badala rate today.
whether it converts into 'siddha badala'(nifty feb rate hiegher then jan) from undha badala (nifty feb rate lower then jan)or not.
currently we have undha badala.
NF High & low are 4905 and 4880.
Break on either side would offer 25-35 points on the upper side but more on the downside.
HI Ilango, any good purely intraday options observed by you? A friend suggested to buy 49 jan pe for 4-5 if it comes, around 1300 hrs, this is a PURE LOTTERY CALL.
If Nifty struggles to move past 4930-4940(the channel resistance shown in the chart, it can slide down. It all depends on the "Longs" still left in the system.
Such "Lottery" success have happened just a month back. Would it repeat..?
Good Luck to that one.
Hi Ilango Sir,
Asia is up 1.5% and above. Today is Expiry. Huge shorts are exist. Tomorrow RBI Policy. Any good news will lead good upside.
Now nifty is trading near its today's low. Is there is possiblity that there will be false breakdown and then upside.
Fine tuning the trading levels for the day with Pivot being 4888.,
Supports @ 4860 below which a new low possibility.
Resistances @ 4930-4935., above which 4960.
hi men,
u frnd may be right as still many longs in d system and everybody waiting fr short recover wl lead 2 panic in last one hr(downside) and nt 1 pm as EU wll opn plus at 1.30..
at 10, have we closed above hour high ema?
No .But closed above the low ema. Hour high ema comes at 4909.
have updated the tech table in a new post.
Nifty has closed at 5899.65 @ 10 above Hourly Low Ema (4873) $ 5 Ema (4889) but below High Ema(4908)
First Pink arrow is a certainty reaching to 4930. Then there are two possibilities..either to 4960 after a brief pause or a fall to lower levels..
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