Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
91 comments:
ilango sir,
thanks for the reply,i suppose as per your method now after positive divergence in MACD,next sign will be close above hrly low ema,then test of high ema and then we analyse todays close and then confirm reversal?i am correct sir
am i correct sir?
Yes..aarvee,
That is the sequence one should look for.
Remember this time, the weekly is in sell mode unlike the last two reversal points such as 4539 & 4944.
Prabhakar said...
Mr.Ilango Sir,
I have Long position in NF at 4965. Where can I exit (or) book profit?
If you initiated this on Monday for an intraday trade, you should have exited on the same day.
You really need to play your trades based on the trend. And Nifty is in downtrend in week, Day & Hour.
Exit first as mentioned earlier @ 4960-4980 zone. I hope for your sake, it gets there.
thanks sir ,nice of u to point out the weekly mode ,i was just having a tunnel vision of daily data.i forgot your words,--------
"Always give more weightage to the higher time cycle and play the lower time cycle till a "overbought or Oversold" situation arises in the higher time cycle when one should approach with caution but continue in the same direction."thanks again
Dear Ilango,
I am holding 4900 Puts at 110 ( FEB) hedged with sold 4500 Puts. What should be the SL on a weekly basis ?
Is it fine now to buy TISCO options,620 for FEB ?
Best regards
Sir,
Thanks for the excel sheet. Would you also suggest some books on ew analysis which you found useful?
hi..Kapil Chopra,
When ever you see good profits or when Nifty nears 486-4880, one round of profit booking in the PUTs is alright. The written 4500 Put can remain.
Tata steel is down trending. Let me assess its TA by EOD.
Weekly SL any week Close @ 5140(This figure will come down every week). Watch the weekly ema that appears after the weekly close as your SL.
thanks sir ,nice of u to point out the weekly mode ,i was just having a tunnel vision of daily data.i forgot your words,--------
"Always give more weightage to the higher time cycle and play the lower time cycle till a "overbought or Oversold" situation arises in the higher time cycle when one should approach with caution but continue in the same direction."
thanks again
Sir,
Please include TCS also with TISCO analysis.
Both were there in Stock Wealth scan - may be due for status review.
(Covered TISCO short - only TCS is pending).
Regards,
S Rajagopal
ilango sir,
double bottom formed on price charts now has all the indicators ,MACD,stochs,RSI with positive divergence,looks like intraday bounce is a very good possibility,may be can touch todays pivot of 5009?
sir your comments pl.
@ rajagopal
wht is ur S&R
fr ths expiry
Ilango can one start buying small qty in cash. Cricket update Bangladesh from 290/3 to 312/9, lead by 1 run. Zaheer takes 3 wickets in one over. Ilango u can delete this after some time.
Sudhin
Break of today's low cancels out all intra longs. and some intra shorts.
mr.Ilango,
cancels out all intra longs..got it..
what does it mean by " and some intra shorts"
cheers
krish
hi..Sudhin,
You are most welcome to add some relief with such news here.
hi..Krish,
If you have no trades from morning and you are an intra day trader, break of the multi intraday low gives you a "sell" trade for the day with trend on your side.
aarvee,
Looks like we are probably headed towards 4880 now
mr.Ilango,
fine
cheers
krish
ya right@ nifty,
as ilango sir pointed out ,break of today lows cancels out intraday longs
Manu,
I am having today's high as S&R point.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Manu - As a safety policy, I migrate to next month after the 15-17th of current month. All my shorts/longs are in future futures and not in current futures.
Just fyi.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Gm Ilango sir, can any Fed rate decision tonight affect our markets?? I m in conservative shorts.
Sir,
Ofcourse trend is down... but 6months EOD charts showing strength @ 4900 levels?
Thanks and regards
Regards
In the "Yahoo Intraday Chart", there is a very distinct positive divergence. If moves past 4935NS, it may offer 25-35 points.
Hi Ilango,
I am yet with no positions... Just observing!
Can I get into a aggressive Long at these levels?
regrds
hi dear sir,
In exel sheet daily 5-d &d14- d turn in to green zone so may be indicated for buy ?
ilango sir,
1. positive divergence in 5D MACD
2.OS position on all indicators in daily charts
3.20 ema & 50 ema not yet crossed on daily
4.voilation of bollinger bands on lower side.
all suggest good probability of moving towards 50 ema (at approx. 5110)in short term.your comments sir
hi..Chanakya,
If 4880 holds(+/- 15 points),go long for 35-50 points initially.
Selling is spreading to stocks in rotation. Unfortunately we missed an ideal selling near 5060 by 20 points.
Lets be patient for some more time.
Bolinger is definitely suggesting a 100 pt rally in a day or two. I bought Nifty FEB at 4900. Will keep SL = 4870 NS
Hi Ilango, It's my first post here. Looking at the Nifty, i think it could slide towards 100 points down from the open highs i.e 4970 - 100 = 4870 and then could start moving up towards 4980 by close...
Anyways i will try to post regularly on some learning experiences and not levels of the markets and i must admit that after coming across your blog, you are the one who motivated me to share my learnings. Cheers
sir can we expect intra bounce now??
how far would the bounce be??
Hi..Pattern lover,
It is possible. 30 week average may offer a first bounce.
Otherwise, the short term reversal can happen from these levels with +ve div..intact. Trade with strict SL. when you are playing the bounce.
For conf, look for a move past 4930NS.
Thnx Ilango!
India wins Bdesh all out 312, Ilango I have started buying tisco, ril, infy all in cash, in options sold out early 4800 feb pe, also have mini longs let's c, also nifty not crossing 34 ema.
Ilango sir , can conservatives enter again at 30-40 points bounce? As i booked near 4895.
half day gone,some observations-
1.nifty not even crossed 20min ema once in intraday,finding even 5min ema as resistance,showing a weak day,
2.not once closed above hourly low ema in tech table.
3.though even now MACD ,RSI,Stochs are having positive divergence.
4.looks like a downtrend day ,so instead of following indicators ,concentrate on moving average,say 20min ema.
hi..Bizagra,
If you have booked your shorts, don't do anything now.
For a conservative short to be reinitiated, it should bounce for few days.
If you sell here, holding can be tough.The best way to do is trail your shorts. If you trade your shorts, it should have been reinitiated at the level you close it.
ilango sir ,
your comments for intraday
Hi..Chanakya,
"4880" seem to be holding. If it moves past 4905 now, a small long trade possible.
there is no positive divergence in daily (todays bar) also included
Dear All - Please consider this Request.
---------------------------------------
As people wish each other when they meet, I ask "did you go for your walk today?". It is becoming an habit with me.
We all spend minimum 6 hours at our terminals,sitting, only our eyes and occassionally hands move - result storage of mountains of calories. Ilango must be spending atleast 2 hours more analysing post market scenario and preparing our safety nets.
I have a very humble request. Ensure that you play for an hour - badmintton or any outdoor game - or compulsorily walk for 4 to 6 kms a day. Remember an healthy mind needs a healthy physique to rest. Also, as my Doctor says 'what is the point in accumulating wealth, if you cannot enjoy it?'. The worst curse is to enter hospitals and remain helpless. If it is fate - ok let it happen.
Not trying to be melodramic - just a request. Walk Walk Walk Walk Walk Walk Walk Walk Walk Walk Walk Walk Every day.
Warm regards,
S Rajagopal
Dear Anandam,
Your intuition is not working I suppose.
Thanks
@ raja
small long trades are really small..
i will walk
Ok Ilango... Thnx a lot... I will go Long above 4905 (spot)
Hi..rajaGopal,
Well said. Swami Vivekananda used to say,"Ask him to play foot ball instead of giving him Bhagawat Gita to read". He emphasised on the "Physical aspect" to living as you can not draw a picture(Life) with out a wall(Body).
Hi Guys..
Pl. read this webpage.. then you can understand.. Behind the screen operators are BUYing Mode. they will ask to Sale everything to start BUY themself..
You can understand may be tomarrow.. Not today..
If you are short.. Suggested to Cover your shorts..
Go Long in any stock... you can see up move tomarrow.. that is what my understanding..
thanks
Anandan.R
Hi, Guys. forgot to post the webpage address.
www.anirudhsethireport.com.....
thanks
anandan.R
Ilango - as usual "Kalakkittinga" (suvarillamal Chitiram illai).
Hope all are educated at Sri RKM or Vivekananda...
Please walk. We don't make money for the Hospitals to flourish...
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Take Note : ICICI, SBI, HeroHonda,M&M, Voltas, TATASteel, RIL...., Bank Nifty.
Can go long..: take next month call near to spot..
Hope you guys can see good profits in next few days.. take care.. anandan.R
Thanks
i too shall go long after 4905. I have a feeling it shall take some days to cross 4905 since 4900 has been breached..
I level of support i am looking are
4865,4830 and 4795
Anandan,
4869 is broken though.
my understanding is that ob/os methods primarily work very well in non trending markets. in trending markets they fail. i think mr anandan relies more on oscillators. the trick to use oscillators is to abandon them timely. (i am also a learner)
hi..Manoj,
Your 4865 seem to be giving a bounce now..
And that is a first sharp reversal..
ilango sir,
Looking in OI data looks like more support is being build up @4800 and 4900 and the resistance @5100-5200 is less weaker ( in feb ). Although we are about the start the Feb, and its not fair to say anything right now. Is there a chance we hit 5350-5500 on corrective bounce from oversold zone ?
Thanks.
yes illango sir,
maybe 4865 will hold the leak.................for today
hi..Prosenjit,
In few weeks time(Or in the next week itself..!!), Nifty will test its 200SMA @ 4600+/-.
The quality of bounce from that level and the +ve div . if developed in daily may give us the clues as well as any adverse or positive dev. in the international scene.
If 4600 holds, yes., there is a possibility.
hi sir.plz send TA sheet....my mail id gelli.kiran@gmail.com
Hi all,
The rollover as of 1.30 pm is only 44.85% as compared to 67% at same time last month.The pain is still there in the system. Pl do not try to catch a falling knife. Even if you have the urge than pl do have a suitable stop loss in place.
Yes a close above 4870 is crucial for a bounce
Dear Ilangoji,
your comments for vivek patil's alternative view.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_fJ202bMkEkU/S1_ossGMLfI/AAAAAAAAAew/wESKvTlxGm4/s1600-h/vivek+patil+alternative+view+as+on+25.1.10-789924.PNG
Structure of the Sensex can remain positive if it holds well about 15331 by Feb'2010. Wavecount- wise, downside holding above 15331 can be marked either as "x" (as shown on the opening chart), OR as "f" as per the alternative structure presented below.
Weak trading below 15331 would, however, justify Sensex having hit maturity levels or a major top around 17735.Wave-wise, it would mean "B" leg rally from Mar'09 lows got over at 17493 during Oct'08,from where "C" has already been forming for downward targets of 13500 (Gap-up of
May08) / 11850 (60% correction level) / 10600 (80% correction level).
On the alternate structure shown on the chart above, one may notice an interesting time analysis.Like 10-week long falling segments during the post-Jan'10 bear phase, I had pointed out about 13-week long rallying segments during the Post-Mar'09 rise.
After each rallying segment, chart shows a falling segment of 3-5 weeks. After the 10-week rally to 17780, we are now into the falling segment, This may continue for 3-5 weeks, taking us into Feb'10, which has been considered crucial time period for continuing bullish expectations.
Price-wise, each subsequent rallying segment has been 55% of the previous rallying segment. It indicates loss of bull-power, despite hitting newer highs of the larger rally.
Structurally, the larger rally since Mar'09 continues to be marked as a "B" wave corrective leg to the 14-month fall ("A" leg) even within this alternative. In Triangles, "B" leg can consume lessertime than "A".
The "B" leg of a Triangle can form as a 3-legged pattern (Zigzag or Flat) or as a 7-legged pattern called Diametric. We cannot mark "B" as a 5-legged pattern, i.e. Triangle. The up-move since Mar'09 is, therefore, possibly developing as a 7-legged Diametric
The current drop from Jan'10 high of 17780 becomes its "f" leg, after which the last leg, i.e. "g" leg,
would develop upwards, preferably reaching levels higher than 17780 (even 22000), if it is not a
Failure leg ("g" leg can be a Failure leg).
Ilango,
Starting to shiver. Though have watched market shedding more than 300 points on the run four times since Mar 09, this fall gives me creeps.
Levels suggested by Prosenjit - though acheivable - looks at Moon and Mars...
Unable to square of Shorts (fear of missing the ride to the deep) or initiate Longs (falling knives)
Where are we ? This jungle looks more choitic. Though my dear drunkard decided to side with the idiot, he is sinking too much...
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Hi Rajagopal ji
In days like these with gap ups gap downs, how to hedge the future Longs / Shorts
with an expiry next day ?
NS below 4870, tempting another short,
but i feel it could go either direction.
I too think 200ma is a via point now.
with regards
Moh
Ilango said...
hi..Prosenjit,
In few weeks time(Or in the next week itself..!!), Nifty will test its 200SMA @ 4600+/-.
----
Saheb - does it mean I can hold my Feb short initiated at 5267 ?
Don't state at me. I can read your mind (why should the drunkard side with the idiot?-right?)
Please tell me.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
hi prosenjit ji,
would you advise on
what best way to hedge if i go short on NF now?
hi rajagpal ji
may be worth a short hold til 200ma, i feel
with regards
Moh
Mok - Ilango is most qualified to answer such a query. For me "when in doubt stay out" is the ruls.
-------------
Another rule - I stop trading in current month after the 17th - allows me a longer time frame to pray and bother Ilango...
-------------
I messaged my dealer to buy Feb Nifty @ 4898 (Long) he mistook my instruction and initiated Short. It gave me 30 points.
-------------
Base your trades on technicals rather than temptations. If you are convinced technically (spotted the swing) go with conviction.
Hope Ilango gives you advise, since the situation is universal.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
oops,
the net & terminal has remained disconnected.
my query was while NS at 4860.
sorry.
Ilango, when do u use s1 s2 on weekly point to go long? Secondly is it possible to have the latest message on the top, will be easier to view.
Sudhin
hi ilango ji
eod, would you kindly advice how to hedge in near expiry days with this heavy volatility of overnight heavy gap ups gap downs ?
Thanks sir.
with regards
Moh
hi rajagopal ji
you got a positive vibe,
may be thats why the long became a short to give you profit.
your presenatations make a nice fragrance here.
with regards.
Moh
hi..Rajagopal,
4870-4880 was a level for a part booking.
Market gave 4850.
Why not take the Bonus..!!
What ever you say Sir. Will take the Bonus.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
nifty kissed low ema.should v cut our shorts now ilango sir??
kind regards....
vicky....
Hello sir,
I am currently holding a long of jan series at 5080 in loss and a short of feb series at 5000.. thought of holding the long till expiry for any bounce.. but its going down and down breaking all supports. now dont know whether i should wait till tomo to book my long as it broke imp support of 4930.. please advice.
Hi..Vicky,
There are two ways to close your shorts.
1. Expected target area.(Here the 30 week SMA @ 4870-4880)
2. Trail it till it closes above 5 day ema..
thanks a lot for ur kind guidance sir.
kind regards....
vicky....
I have covered all short on nifty future today.
Sold Feb 4800PE and sold Feb 5300CA(to be covered @5050) for nifty 5050-5150 "ATLEAST".
Considering I am wrong judge yourself before taking any position.
Sir,
Why does Anandan keep sensationalising everything. Buying at dips is a common market philosophy. But why to take long positons in options. This may be a good time to buy in select scrips. On Monday, he asked us to go long in Nifty.
what does he say to that today?
Let us not lose our sanity in the market
As of now there is no sign of trend reversal.
Nifty has traded below hourly EMA throughout the day.
Here one could take a counter postion in nifty 4900 call and put with a total outgoing premium of 60-65 for a possible gap up/down opening tomorrow.
CNBC TV18....... Shaknar Sharma....... aggresive of all bears..... 12K in H12010.
Last time he said 12.5K sensex..... sensex went to 17.5K from 16-16.5K now what 21K :D
positive divergence in macd fast in hourly charts frm 22/1 till today. but the same +ve divergence also existed between 22 and 25 jan. still we fell.
Sold 1.69 lakh crore for a single session. Selling everying other than NSE BSE building.
Mok - NIFTY going deepest South.
Ilango - You beauty .. 4600 looks nearer than a Week.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
hi..Rajagopal,
"Sitting tight" is the toughest act.
The famous Robert Prechter takes a position and goes to sleep. I think we all should take a "walk"..!!
:) :)
hi ilango ji
can you plz advice how to hedge a NFut Long / Short with options when we are nearer to expiry like today ?
Sorry if this query is out of place. Plz answer only if this query is ok here.
Thanks
with regards
Moh.
coz, i very much wanted to go short, but was concerned about a gapup & bounce back tomoro,
Yeah Ilango. May be I may infuriate a few friends who are long. For their information my 80-20 quotient remains.
It gives great satisfaction to accept that learning to play both sides makes a matured Trader.
Dear All - if you want the market to go up, walk 6 kms today. If you want it to go down then walk just six kms.
Bye.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Good Joke Rajagopal.
By the way have you exited your shorts?.. I am holding for the target of 4600
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$cnxn,pltad[pa][da][f!3!!]&pnf=y
If anybody interested in P&F charts.
@ prosenjit
ws nt able 2 understand d chart?
@raja
poor me still so called hedged in unitech fut longs(- 9%) and shorts nifty (-2.5%)
any suggestions for couriering things back//
Dear Rajagopal,
Even though I walk 6kms a day, my trading is still terrible, maybe I should run! :)
Best regards.
rm
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