S&R for the Longs should be @ 5235.
Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
49 comments:
Hi Guys,
BUY : Nifty : 5300 Put @ Max.92.. Target 115, wait for few days..thanks. Anandan.R
Hi guys,
Safe side.. Sale : Infosystech.. Wipro, TCS, HCLTech..
IT stocks now went up to the roof.. expected to cool down.. Thanks Anandan.R
sir, i pasted ur views only..i took shrts ystrdy only @.89..i shld exit r not as it didnt passed 91.5 but u c nifty outbreak at this lvl..unitech is high beta ..suggest..
Hi..Manu,
I do not monitor stocks intraday. the views are expressed on EOD analysis. So I cannot guide thru' intraday moves..
Have your SL for your trade.
Manu trading agaist the trend is dangerous most of the times. Market Breadth is fine
thnx sir,
i m also positional in beta trading..but gen. hedged wth options..orb looks false..v may c 5235 s&r..hopefully..
ilango sir, can u elaborate how did u arrive at s&r 5235
Ilango sir, happy pongal.
I had taken short at 5245 yesterday, and seeing your pre market view today, I booked loss at 5255, and simultaneously went long at 5254. I will hold this long with a stop of nifty 5235NS but will book the long if I see 5290 today, and simultaneously go short above 5290. Every time when I went short nearer to 5280/90 I have gained. This time also I intend to take a short at 5290+. What is your views about this sir?
Because of this role reversal btwn IT and Bank.. market is just moving betwn 15 points...checking our patience...
Hi piyush sharda,
U can see in the chart there is gap up opening today and so that gap may act as support.. nifty has gap up & bounced from that level previously also(in wave 3)..see the chart carefully..
I think thats why Ilango sir give S&R @ 5235 level..
This is what i can understand..
Ilango sir is my understanding correct?
Ilango sir, if moves down from 5235 that means we r still in 4th wave and if moves up then we r in 5th wave.m i right Ilango sir?
Dear Ilango,
Since you are convinced of the OBR concept and many of us use it as a tool, kindly consider publishing the same (2 readings 15 and 30 mins) in the Tech table itself. I accept, each of us can do it, but your readings will have a "standardised" rating.
Kindly consider.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Hi..dare,
you are right about that. Besides 5235 also 5 day ema.
Hi..Bizagra,
Your analysis is also good.
In this market play by the waves and exit longs & shorts.
Upsides too will be limited with IT near its end or ended. cement near OB levels, Metals in their last lap. Writing calls in the coming days is the most sensible thing to do. Will elaborate on this during week end once the weekly moves are done with.
‘It's Magic!
Quite often, Support and Resistance levels act like MAGIC. This one did so: 5180
Yesterday, the Nifty fell, touched the 5180 support zone, twice, then rallied to close strongly above this support, at 5233.95, gaining 0.45%.
The Nifty seems to have completed a period of correction, and is well poised for another round of gains.’ (www.sudarshanonline.com)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
My add on:
A strong bounce back was very much expected near 5180 as yesterday EMA 20 at 5172 (another strongest support). [good trade was buy@5180 sl 5150 ]
Chance of a fall up to 5150/5135 (yesterday) was very less.
~~~~~~~
Most of ppls here is busy with Elliott Wave count/trendline & ignore simple TA! (like ema 5,20,50 & Support and Resistance levels 4940,5010,5080,5180,5230/90,5370 etc).
Hope you understand & don't mind.
Hi,
My view is as follows, on SENSEX
(a) of 4th wave to 17276 from 17790 = 514 points
(b) of 4th wave ongoing.. or might have done at 17623 (today's High) = 347 Point - 68% of (a)
expected (c) can be 123% of (b) = 427 that comes at 17197.
17193 is also the 38% retracement of 3rd wave (16220 to 17790 = 1570).
I hope I am not sounding confused..
above is just my view in good faith and may completely go wrong.
Regards,
Amit
I think was in triangle and given breakdown from triangle..
check in yahoo chart
I have shorted @5265 NF
Ilango sir, can i go long here with s&r 5235?
hi..bizagra,
Yes..with a small SL.
5244 was last week's close. Two days ago, 5235-5238 has offered intraday supports. So if 5230-5235 fails to hold, corrections may continue further..
Ilango sir went long @5245 with S&R 5235.Is it ok?
Bazagra,
Did you buy below 5250 ? That was a good opportunity to enter.
Europe is looking like it will open very strong (nearly up a %). So dont hold shorts for the next 30 minutes or so.
I covered my short @ 5274 this morning and went long at 5247. Now have an order to sell out of this trade @5270+.
ya... i covered my short @5249
Infosys on fire..Any suggestion I have shorted 50 shares in the morning at 2662.
Cheers
Akhil
option data is confusing to say...5300 calls as well as 5200 puts are adding good amount of OI...5300 call has added 7L so far today...total 57L
5200 put has added 9L..total 55L
today this is the 3rd time nifty is getting resisted @5265 level..Let see for it.. can cross or not..!!!!!
IT stocks on fire again. Each day buying HCL on dips for the past 6 months or so has been immensely rewarding. Just wonder which MORONS are buying these stocks at these prices (PEG = 2).
Anyhow, I booked 60% of my long @5263.95, trailing my SL to entry + brokerage.
Closing above 5260.50 at 2.00PM will aid the further up moves.
ILLango,
What happens if NIFTY closes between 5250 and 5265. There is still a resistance of 5280/5310 and a support of 5240/5180. This is the narrowest range I have seen in a very long time. Have been investing/trading since 1996.
Informational. A very reliable sell signal for the US market (based on VIX) has been triggered yesterday.
Here is the link http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14149
Today Wipro is firing up the IT sector.
Can any body help me in calculating daily EMA on EOD basis.
I just unable to calculate various EMA i.e.5-10-12-20 Plz help me in this regard.
Ilango sir, I booked out of nifty at 5265 long taken at 5255 today morning. I also went short at 5266 with stop at nifty 5285NS. What is your views sir?
sir c RIL
Hi Nifty,
That signal was dated 11th. While on 13th US market went up.
Dear Ilango Sir,
I haveLong in NF 5255. Give me suggestion.
Thanking you,
Nidhi - RIL is in Ilango's periscope. In good times you hear somany calls - now the target is 1200. Ilango wants a break above 1120 for higher move.
With both Infy and RIL in uptrend will NIFTY touch the next R2 soon ?
Regards,
S Rajagopal
One more wasted day - waiting for windfalls and rectifying mistakes.
Unable to quit + positions since higher ranges are predicted. No will to quit -ve positions - waiting for a dip.
Hit upon the perfect TA - no need for MACD and EMA. Just
"Whatever I buy goes down. What ever I sell goes up." Ha Ha ha...
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Rajvada,
There are 3 conditions that needs to be met before a valid signal emerges.
(1) A close outside of the Bollinger Band. On Monday, i.e., Jan 11, The VIX crashed to sub 17 level and thus fell through “its bottom-boundary Bollinger Band". Hence a SELL signal was registered.
NOTE: When the VIX goes above the upper Bollinger band, then it is a BUY signal. And when it goes "below" the lower Bollinger band, then it is a SELL signal.
(2) The VIX must close back inside the Bolinger Band - that issues the signal - once again. This occured on Jan 12 when VIX rallied 4+ %.
(3) A higher close than the close of the day back inside the Bolinger Band. On Jan 13, the final condition of a higher close than Jan 12 - the day the VIX came back inside the BB - occurs.
So all 3 conditions were met only on Jan 13 (which is yesterday !). Youre right the article was written on Jan 11, but the conditions took another 2 days to confirm.
NOTE this: Sell signals (are very rare) and were triggered in September 2007, February 2008 and May 2008, and each one led to a big selloff. “Is a sell signal in the VIX reliable and significant? Oh, yes they are. Sell signals from the daily VIX are rare".
Another point I failed to illustrate about the BB and VIX sell signal - Once you get those three criterias fulfilled, a major reversal usually occurs within the next week - perhaps not immediately.
Hello friends,
Ilango is doing a amazing job. He is teaching and guiding us. Learn from him, do paper trading and using your own intelligence start trading in mininifty. Once you are confident do in meganifty. Please avoid asking silly requests. I am placing request because I want to learn because of silly requests if he avoids all the request, others will get affected.
So Please dnot silly ask questions. Get the view or opinion or share your undersanding with him and get clarified. Dnot ask tips for intraday trading and confirmation for your tradings.
Again, understand and trade. Dnot trade his believe.
Ilango sir, any confermation that we completed 4th and into 5th wave?
Dear Nifty,
Good analysis and explanation. Thanks for this details. I have gone short heavily based on my gut feeling and that is supported by this signal. Let us wait and see.
I Wish everyone a very happy pongal..
Nifty,
Good work.Keep us updated on this.
Thanks
I plan on buying lotz of puts for insurance tomorrow evening. Let us see if this sell signal really materializes next week.
A few things that I liked reading in this article was:
Understandably many of you are nervous about shorting this market - and rightfully so I might add. You can only get your dick caught in the elevator doors that many times until you start remembering to zip up your pants after taking a leak. But I have a very fundamental rule when it comes to trading. If I encounter a time tested technical signal that indicates a market reversal is in the making then I have to take it, no matter what. The day my emotions or a directional bias prevents me from following a statistically proven technical trigger is when I must retire from trading.
For what it’s worth: It would be nice to see a down day for a change - this market is getting on my nerves. I suffer from a mental condition that prevents me from doing what everyone else is doing, especially when it comes to trading. In the past few months everyone seems to be doing the same thing over and over again - and it’s working for them. That’s not how it has worked during 99.9% of the stock market’s history.
nifty,
Pls mind your language.
Don't corrupt other's blog with FOUL LANGUAGE.
jatin/nifty,
it is not nifty writing ..he is quoting frm a us based person blog..americans r in habit of usng slang..
rest nifty thr ws no major fall in feb 2008 , dwn circuits wson 22 jan 08, may 06, may 04..
the fall in sep2008 ws global eroding prices in a week..
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