At 11.41AM: Nifty is resisted @ the channel.
Above 4925, a 25 points towards 4950++.
If resisted, fall to 4900-4888(pivot).
Crucial Hour ahead.
At 11.00AM: Managed to close above the "Hour High Ema".
Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
-
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
123 comments:
1030Min EMA is at 4950. Can expect Nifty to trade around 4950.
Keeping in mind the prospects of huge intraday volatility, one could buy 4900 call and put with net outgoing premium of 48. The strategy would be profitable beyond 4945 and below 4855.
Hi Illango,
i am holding nifty long with huge losses...looking for an exit today around 4950...what should i be look out for in terms of levels and time frames??
Exit in the region of 4950-4960. Will update.
4930 is the channel resistance.Only beyond that upsides.
illango sir....mysterioulsy, since morning i could not post my comments here. now its up !.
Coming to OI data.....sir, i find in Feb series, 4800 PE adding 2 lacs, 4700 PE 1.6 lacs & 4600 PE adding 1 lac since morning. While, only 4900 CE added almost 2 lacs.
So, market seems to be building the base at 4600 for that eventuality and giving a range of 4600 - 4900 ( +/- 100 ).
Your comments plz sir.
regards
hi..ka,
Your assessment is in concurrence with my own with upside possibility of 5050-5050.
gm sir,
still not rcvd d mail fr unitech..
manunidhi21@gmail.com
hi..@rajagopal
its to much fog in north..nifty is not able to walk/run my add. ..plz help her..
Illango Sir considering present scenerio it would be ok to go long for your 5050 target with 4880 sl.
Plz sugest
hi..Manu,
I am really sorry. No excuses. I will send it today without fail..
hi..musti,
5000-5050 will not come in a hurry and some choppy moves along the way.
Hi, Guys, Yesterday mentioned about the Referance webpage.. What is happening just pure play by FII vs DII.. : small traders will be traped if fall on wrong side..
Indicated to go long... Hope you guys start booking profits.. Expected 4950... ( next few days 5150 levels ), they will call it pre-budget rally or DAVOS ( WEF), or RBI ..
Wait and watch out..Thanks : Anadnan.R
Good Morning All
Ilango sir my intraday chart shows a low at opening to be 4863 but you have posted the low at 4881. Please Clarify
Thank you sir.
Sir, can you be kind to clear my doubt about SAR based trading. I would like you to throw your expert comments on that method. Is that as fool-proof & easy as it looks ? What are the disadvantages in that ? And how to use it in useful ways ? ( i did go thru the SAR method updated above )
thanks in advance
P.S : Am still finding the difficulty to post my comments.
Dear Ilango Sir,
Kindly post the chart with the channel resistance at 4930.
hi..Satheesh,
That is a one quote I like to ignore and more reliable low is 4881.
hi..ka,
No method is perfect. You need to pick the right tool for the right job. Experience and belief in your own study and works will help you in choosing the right one..And yes., always keep the ego at the door step.
GM ilango sir,
yesterday we talked about positive divergence ,looks like TA cannot be ignored for too long.
your views about channel resistance at 4930-40 also concides with resistance of 3Dema at 4945.
at option front-as of now ,the option chain shows-
5000CA-57L
4900PA-53L
4800PA-49L
so to give max .pain as of now it looks like it will not close above 5000,but can close above 4930.so that all the above figures gain nothing EOD.but should be cautious as these fig. are changing very fast.
cause of worry-even now nifty sellers are more than buyers since morning.
hi ilango, regarding ka's question, Is there any known pit fall that we can look out for when following SAR. For entrant to TA like me, that would be of great help. I totally agree with your reply for ka's question nothing can replace experience.
Ilango sir, can you give the opening value for today. As in my system both open and low are the same. the opening value is required to update your excel sheet.
hi..Kishore,
SAR is a very good tool and if you can combine it with a strict money management and a reasonable stop loss, you will come out a big winner with a few trades getting stopped out.
You need to book out with an euphoric rise when you see big profits and not wait for SAR reversal and similarly, exit at "panicky lows"..These are the only exceptions.
Try to evolve a system combining Trendlines, moving averages, etc..Let it be your choice and you are comfortable following them.
Dear Sateesh,
You could get the Nifty spot tick by tick rates from here:
http://www.nse-india.com/marketinfo/charting/OnlineContractChart.jsp?instrument=FUTIDX&symbol=NIFTY&expirydate=28JAN2010&optiontype=&strikeprice=&charttype=ONLINE_CONTRACT&series=EQ&mkttype=N&key=&segment=FO&symb=&flag=0
Just ignore the first few ticks.
Regards
rm
Off the topic:
I found few people interested in Mr. Rajagopal suggesstion about going to walk.
@sujatha,
you can try the simple excersise of MANA VALA KALAI OF Holiness Vedanthri Magarishi. Very simple excersises but very effective. Early morning if you could wake up half an hour before you could do it all and feel refreshing for the whole day. If you have a Mandram near your house you can contact them they would teach you. I don't think your domestic schedule would be disturbed by that.
hi..Satheesh,
It is 4899.15.
Thanks ilango sir
@ ka, Kishore,
As the name might suggest SAR is a system where one is "always in the market"
The flip side of SAR is that you may get whipsawed plenty of times and secondly it works in trending markets. Thirdly, you need nerves of steel and the mind like a robot to trade SAR! :)
Good luck!
@ ilango, hi, have a good day. Just dropped by as my terminal is down today.
ss :)
Ilango, I sold one long @4925, wat level to enter again, I feel around 4880+-5 would be good.
Manu,
Nifty Sun bathing in South. Ilango says may like to stay for some more time with small walks upto the border.
Eventually, she must do the kar seva at the Golden Temple for all our sake.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
hi..SS,
GM.
Looks more like a squaring off of positions around the 4900 zone.
Dear Rajgopal,
Perfectly said, eventually we all like to earn when market is in Bull run, and not in Bear Grip.
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Dear KA & Kishore,
I prefer following SIR to SAR since it is an off the shelf/ready to use all in one tool.
What do you say?
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Rajagopal sir I second you!!! :)
hi..Satya,
I have updated the hourly chart with the channel resistance point.
thanks sir.
Does the rule of higher time frame to lower frame judgements holds true in SAR also or its limited to the interval one is interested to trade.
For eg, today hourly sar has not given buy signal yet while 30 min has given the buy signal at 10 am itself. So, I understood that its up to the interval you want to trade.
Whats your view here sir ?
Am sorry if am pestering too much.
thank you
hi..Ka,
"SAR" or any other method has to be used for that particular time frame only. Many misread the suggestions of the "intraday" and take home positions only to find an adverse price move on the subsequent day. Every trade must have an expiry time.
Today ORB/ pivot gave a buy and the channel resistance has held thus far.So a 5 minute trader or Hourly trader should act accordingly. These small moves do not concern a positional trader. But the positional trader must book profits periodically.
The different "Short covering" scenarios:
When market is in uptrend, the corrections are shallow and even if they are deep, it reverses back up. In such situations, the shorts are always at a loss when the market resumes its trend.
When market is in downtrend, the shorts are at higher level and the longs are always at a loss. Besides the delivery sales also pulls down the market.
So on the settlement day, the shorts are not in a hurry to cover and the "stuck longs" will come in to dump on every bounce.
Rajgopal avare !...mannikka vendum !! Late reply.
Am struggling to post my comments today, its not going out. My above post just went out now after 15 mts.
Yes, yes, yes....u r absolutely true. SIR stands ATOP of all that tools. No iota of doubt there !!!
KA - latest proof.
"At 11.41AM: Nifty is resisted @ the channel.
Above 4925, a 25 points towards 4950++.
If resisted, fall to 4900-4888(pivot).
Crucial Hour ahead."
---market obliged.
--------------
Serious side : Since my brain is bigger than the small red-ant, I couple ORB with Ilango's guidelines ... finding very useful/beneficial.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Ilango Sir, the small and useful tips from you and other blogmates has changed lot of my perception about reading the market movement or rather trying to read :) and it is really helping me to cut out my losses in small trades. "A penny saved is a penny earned"Thank you sir
Hi Ilango,
Nice explanation of the short covering scenarios. So only those who shorted yesterday below 4900 will be in a hurry to cover. So it looks like there may not be an explosive up move in the last hour or two of trade today.
hi..Shr,
I very much doubt an explosive move up.
There was a pause @ 4857-4860 in yesterday's fall. That is a likely support if the "Big guys" have written in a big way 4900CE as well as 4900PE.
Sir, what below 4853 /4807???????????
i suppose we can buy 4900 CA @ rs.10 with s/l below rs.7
hi..aarvee,
If NS falls below 4857, the fall will continue till 4800. So be careful.
s/l already hit,did not ttook the trade but thanks as ever
sir what shud be stop for a orb /pivot breakout.
thanks ilango sir,shorted at 4855 for 20-25 points with s/l at 4865
In such a downtrend till a bottom in sight, ORB may not work well. The SL is the morning low of 4881. The correct way is to book out @ 4930(Channel resistance).
It may be choppy for a while with 4845 to 4870 before plunging again.
No choppiness, just one way down..
Naan pesa ninaipathellam nee pesa vendum - NIFTY
Naan kanum ulagangal nee kana vendum - Ilango.
The Wills Made for Each other Pair !!!
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Mr.Ilango Sir,
I shorted Feb. NF at 4850. Pl.Give me Stop Loss of Nifty Spot.
Thanks
hi..Prabhakar,
Book profits when Nifty reaches 4800 or a bit lower as your Sell level is lower.
The correct selling points were 4930(Channel resistance) or break of today's pivot (4888).
For this trade, SL must be "How much you can withstand".
Ilango sir your pink scenario of the premarket view has worked sofar. so can we expect a slight bounce back from those levels????
@ Rajagopal,
"Idhukku peruthan Mottai adikkiradhu"
This is what we call "Shaving the head" as all the hair cutting is over and now for the final wiping off..
hi..Satheesh,
A small bounce may be upto 4860+/-..
It moved into our "Covering zone" and my only worry is, its only 1.00PM., unless they decide to surprise and cover everything..!!!
This is a small risk reward long entry zone---4800-4820.(Below this is the 4750(Multi tops)
Ilango sir, "yarrukku mottai adichadhu?"?????- SMALL TRADERS???????
Ilango, does that mean the selling is almost over for now and will it lead to a meaningful bounce in the next few days? Or do we get rid of major part of our portfolio now?
I shorted Hcl tech @349 (350 resistance broken down yesterday). I am still in loss even tho' mkt has gone down 100 nifty pts.
Please help/explain what I did wrong here. Y do I get into this kind of pain.
ilango sir ,
rightly said ,i shorted at the channel resistance and then covered a pivot but couldnt short again at pivot so shorted at new low below 4860.thanks for such a good premarket and intraday enlightnment.
Thanks ilango sir for your timely guidance.
there is no sight of profit booking in either 4800PE or 4900 PE as of now.
hi..nifty,
If Hcl tech is in F&O, it will move as per its OI position irrespective of the index movement.
Ilango,
We are the adventurers of our own choice going on a treasure hunt in a dark cave of swinging swords. We are aware of our journey and route. If we don't read the map and tread the path well, not only "Mottai" even the head may go.
--------
"nifty said...
I shorted Hcl tech @349"
I am also short in this counter. But my short is in Feb futures - longer time to escape and atone for my Sin.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
ilango sir,
as per tech table, at 1 pm close is below low ema of 4868,can we short here again for a retest of bottom or below?
CRR, reverse repo hike tommorrow likely to pull down market - money control.com
Thanks again ilango sir went long at 4828 NF exited at 4857 near NS 4860.
hi..Satheesh,
Market has already brought down the Bank Nifty by 1000 points in the last 5-8 trading days.
It may not have much impact. "Sell the rumours and buy the news". At best a token impact for a short period , I guess.
hi..Aarvee,
Short with a strict SL(4870) now as it is oversold.As per EW study a new low will be a perfect level to enter long..(4800+/-10)
Dear Ilango Sir,
Nifty playing to perfection as per ur levels.
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
thanks ilango sir,
not taking the short trade ,though it just touched 21 ema line and started falling ,will wait to go long .thanks again for a promp reply and guidance
@ raja gopal/sir/mambers
the oi of unitech fut jan was -1.3% but nw at -14.18%
what this signifies?
Rajagopal,
I have 1300 Hcl short intraday. Looks like it is going for an Ominous breakout above 350+ yet again ?!?
This is a Major reversal..
dear Ilango,
now undha badala (negative cost of rollover)is converting into sidhha badala(positive cost of rollover) which is very bullish.
unitech oi nw- 25%
cn anyone throw light..plz
Ilango sir major reversal does thatmean we can gofor a conservative buy?
Dear Ilango Sir,
Are u on to wave 4 (Made low of 4829)
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Dear Ilango Sir,
Thank you for posting the chart with the channels drawn in it. It seems to help in clarifying our doubts while drawing channels.
"4860" seems more like a "Pivot" today..
Perfect level to enter long..(4800+/-10).Is it positional Ilango Sir?
yes..Satheesh,
A conservative buy with a SL of day's low.
Hi..Sanjay,
It looks to me a "4th" wave is on(3rd wave being 5293 to 4825) and atleast a 38% retracement..
If NS closes above 4857, this new uptrend is safe .
Ilango sir,
As per your premarket view chart Nifty moved as per the pink line and now it has cut across the channel line. so what next sir?
ilango sir,
i think should go long above 4880 now,its above 1 pm 5ema too.just got saved in last trade(1.26 message)your comments for longs
Sir you have given reply to my previous question even before i asked for. Thanks sir
Dear Ilango Sir,
Can go long at 4870 with SL 4857
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
ilango sir,
if its a reversal than watch 5D chart,its showing a positive double bottom in MACD(TODAY & YESTERDAY),even though a new low made today.i think its bullish.your comments please.
sir....jan series 4900 PE is seeing huge addtions to the tune of 13 lacs today......a good rally probably on the cards today.
While, Feb series stacks up from 4600 to 4900, majorly 4800 on PUT side and on CALL side 4800 4900 seeing good addtions.
Manu - r u sure it was 1.3 or cud it have been 13% ? - Unitec OI.
As I understand it is moving in +ve zone with 376 transactions today.
Hope one of our OI specialists will help you.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Manu - it is 376 lakh (3.76 crore) transactions-Unitec.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Breaking 4860 will open up a new low possibility.
sir - Long on Bank Nifty@8360 in Feb series. Square off or keep it?
4845 should be the SL for intra longs.
Mr.Ilango Sir,
Long position in Feb NF at 4865 with stop loss 4820 as a conservative trader. But I didn't understand " Breaking 4860 will open up a new low possibility."
Pl. Clarify.
Thanks
thnx rajagopal..
but hw v wl c oi position frm -1.5 % to -28% at present..as the stock is trding up frm prv cls price
is it short recovery or more shrts building up as feb series oi is 48%
..(it is current fig if u r using neat or odin diet multi-..both r brokers terminals by nse)
really confusing..
hope u cvrd ur shrts
i took 4900 put and 5000 ce both at 96 for 2mrw rbi policy
Thanx Manu. No shorts in Unitec.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
sir- can you please reply on the Bank Nifty query?
@ raja
i hav sold both d positions as if market flat 2mmr thn can save frm d premium
hi..
I don't follow Bank Nifty intra. But this is my brief analysis. If it can move past 8435, will attempt first 8500. Staying above that 8650+.
For any Long trades, keep yesterday's low or 8350 as SL.
Bank Nifty has not made a new low meaning the shorters seem to be covering their shorts ahead of RBI policy.
Dear Ilango Sir,
The 4860 Support u meant is it with reference to the Hourly low Ema or the 30 Week SMA at 4852.
Mr. Ilango Sir,
I am feb. long at 4965. can I hold as a conservative long or exit at what price?
Thanks
sir for a fresh trade should we go long in nifty at 4900 feb if ys pls tell the tgt and s\l thanx
looking at options data, a possibility of closing above 4870 and below 4915(,looking at avg. trade price of 4900put and 4900 call)is strong
Went above the Hour High EMA @ 4904 and resisted
aarvee9 said...
looking at options data, a possibility of closing above 4870 and below 4915(,
Congrats. Your's is the 100th comment for the session.
Keep it up.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
In the premarket view, it was suggested to book out @ 4800+/-20.
During intra conversations also suggested to go long around there as a "low risk reward Long".
As a reversal is not confirmed, going long now @ 4880 is ok with a SL of 20-25 points.
Always act at the right moment to reap it rich. Chasing prices is the one everyone should avoid as a pull back can unnerve us and that is not good for confidence.
Thanks Rajagopal,
hope the comment also proves itself worthy of the count number
As the day nears its end, I renew my appeal to all my friends to WALK WALK WALK WALK WALK WALK WALK WALK WALK WALK WALK WALK .....
Sujatha - since you can appreciate your importance to your family, atleast adopt the "temple technique" suggested.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Hi Illango,
Nifty is making triangle in intraday 5mts?
regards
rajan
Hi Ilango,
Still watching the Nifty movements like a Lawn Tennis spectator!!
Can I enter into Conservative buy here at 4885 (Fut)... or Will it be Ok to buy a CE?
If yes.. what can be the SL?
Please suggest, so that I can too dip in and be an active part of this all!
thanx sir for your reply sir what tgt we should look for
ilango sir,
if its a reversal 5D chart complements it with MACD showing a positive divergence (low of 22jan to low of today),even though a new low made today.i think its bullish.your comments please
Aarvee9, could you plz elaborate on your derviation of nifty closing range for today.
I mean, how to calculate that using the avearage prices of options data ? And, how is avg price arrived at first ?
Thanks in advance
Rajagopal sir.....your sense of humour and timing is superb. " Tamilan ku dha sadhyam andha sense of timing "
am still laughing at your y'days msg - " i sent a msg to my dealer to go long......."
thanks sir.
Sorry, Our messages intersected so didnt see the recommendation to buy. I have entered in the 49CE at arnd 4870 levels (Futures) with a SL of 4850. As of now, I understand that we have to carry this trade (if survives) overnight.
Am I right, Ilango? (Please do not mind my simple queries) although they are simple (I am finding them hard to learn after a consistent loss of >3 Lacs for past 2 years and losses even after subscribing to many many expertsss)
sir for orb sl is the other side(frm ur blog only). wat wud be the sl if we trade based of pivot points crossing or failure to maintain above it. other senionr members also r welcome to anwerr
ilango
tomorrow reserve bank meeting is there. do u think market will go up and banks also will go up?
syamala
Ilango sir,
Your last 2 conservative trades given me 492 points profit and i closed it. Thank you very much. Above lines i am mentioning coz of few people who are all asking when to buy and when to sell. Just follow Sir, conservative calls.. i never made lose..
@ka
nothing much to calculate ,took data from nse website ,option chain, at 2.30,max pain is at 4900,its calls avg trade for today was at rs.15 and puts avg trade rs.30 so logically the call and put writers will like that nifty closes above 4870 and below 4915 today.but lot depends on their avg. option writing price ,the data is also dynamic as u can see my first post today,it looked that nifty can even close above 4930 .
hello babu
the two trades took how much time?will u please tell? two months?just want to know so that so many of us will foloow the same
syamala
Mr. Ilango Sir,
Can I hold NF long for tomorrow, if it holds above 4850
Thanks
Ilango Sir,
Pl. give me reply
Thanks
Syamala.
Both are in this month only shorted at @5272 with stop lose 5310.. booked at 5000. Shorted at 5070 ( in same day) stoplose as 5145.. Today booked at 4844
Ilango,
Normally the difference between Nifty and Sensex fluctuation index values are in the range of 1:4 or 1:3 (If senses is 100 points down then Nifty 25 - 30). But some days, particularly today the difference was very strange. When Nifty was in + while sensex went to -. The difference at times was almost 18:1.
Nifty was +1 when Sensex was -18.
Why ths anomoly?
Regards,
S Rajagopal
hello babu
when ever we carry long nifty overnight we have to hedge , short carry is ok.how are you manageing? please help mein this matter.any body in this site alos can help
syamala
Syamala,
Lose can be any side, no need to be long side..never did hedging . My 1st month in this blog just i observed Sir's calls but not executed any thing. 2nd month onwards i started executing... Sir's conservative trade suited me very well coz i am not interested and don’t believe in Aggressive trading. And I believed in his numbers. My belief is, the more you stay in market .. More you earn. That too my profession is some other and in between I need to be away from my laptop.
Just today you check Sir’s analysis.. all numbers achieved the way how he analyzed. Funny thing is, many of you people don’t know … Today alone ashwani Gujral lost above 200 points ( 4 times executed )
babu
all news comes after market hours. gap open and gap down. that is why afriad of carrying positions and intra day only stoploss triggered.any suggestion for this
syamala
Post a Comment