Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
29 comments:
Happy Pongal & Makar Sankranthi to all
GM Ilango,
I didn't understand>> Reverse to Long with SAR @ 5205. Can you pls explain and oblige.
Also, when you suggest Trade 5225-35 to 5260-80, do you expect that the markets will go first to 5225-35?
As per my understanding you were carrying Shorts from yesterday. I am too carrying 53PE @ 126 closed at 110. SGX suggest gap up near 5250+. What should be done... Shall I cover them at the 1st brief break of 5250 (spot) or wait for seeing if it trades above that level for say 10 mins or so.
But, in past whenever I waited for some 5 mins, at times Nifty shoots/accelerates exponentially from such crucial levels and then we have to book a higher loss at higher levels.
Please suggest.
Wish U All Happy Pongal, MakarSankrati and Lohri.
Hi..Kautilya,
We are holding shorts but it was advised to trade those shorts and especially when market gave a lower opening at 5160-5180(5170) and to resell higher @ 5230-5240 and market stopped exactly at that point. According to the price behaviour till then it was poised to go to another low before reversing to higher levels. however, positive world markets may shorten this correction and Nifty may log into its last upmove which could last for few days.
Accordingly a changed view is presented here. If the prices move past 5245 at the open, next hurdle comes at the "redrawn channel line"(Not shown in the chart..by connecting the tops)@ 5260-5265. If Nifty were to open above that, exit immediately.
Also 10.00AM close will give us a further clue. Even a + 10 points will give RSI break out in the hour charts.
Ideal set ups can sometimes change. From 5170 low of yesterday to the expected low of 5135 was only a 35 points. The risk reward has changed tremendously at that point and market may have tipped at that point. We will know soon.
If market stays in 5245-5265, it will still be an indecisive zone. But looking at individual stocks behaviour, it is poised to move higher. So act promptly.
SAR @ 5205: Once a long is initiated, the stop & reverse to short is @ 5205 breaking.
As weekly is still in Buy mode and daily corrections have gone on for 6 days, get back to "Bull mode".
Kautilya,
This is the dilemma I envisoned yesterday. Since Mar 09, anybody who shorted Nifty near a break out resistance has always LOST money because Nifty has this ugly habit of GAPPING up on open to KILL THE BEARS.
Look at this stupid, meaningless correction from breaking down 5240 support to regaining support. It all happened in a span of 24 hours. i.e., On Tue, it looked like the bears were in command when Nifty broke 5220-5240 support and closed at 5209 or so. But it was yet again just a mirage.
What this means is that either Nifty is going to correct deeply or Nifty is going to rally furiously. This Tue/Wed move was just to flush out the bears.
I suggested yesterday evening NOT to hold shorts near such a crucial support because of gap ups. It happened to me last Monday when it gapped up from 5240 to 5280 and I lost 40 points each on my SHORTs. It looks like it is going to happen again today.
I agree with you. If one doesnt close (the SHORTS) at the open, then market has the tendency to shoot up. If you do close, then it usually comes down. Damned if you do and damned if you don't. Personally I would either close half the short at the open or if you need mental peace then close em all.
Got it Ilango. Thanks for the timely advise/explanation.
Chalking down various possible scenarios is one thing and doing an actual trade by picking up one of those scenarios... is another (thats what I am learning now).
Cheers
Thanks nifty for reciprocating and further understanding my inner feelings.
I have exitted at 102 at the open, as suggested by Ilango and you!! Now Nifty will surely go down :)
Anyway leaving peace of mind with me!!
On a day like this, use the "ORB" method to initiate trades.
Dear Illango,
Ur view on IT index. Can we short it...
thanks
Looks like a role reversal between banks and IT..
But definitely with a tight SL.
What my critic did is(a contrarian play):
If the critical level is 5265, sell first..so the SL is quite close, the 2 day high @ 5273.
Sir,
above pivot table are not updated as they r based on 12th jan close.
RIL has broken out above the 1100 mark.
Sir today orb means we should initiate short below Nf 5250 & go long above 5270.
I am inticipating right?
sir, i m bit confused..the shorts tkn ystrdy r 2 be squared at wht sl if u presume ril upmovmnt as if it breaks 1120..or frm wht lvl again shrt cn be intiated to avg. ystrdy pstns
regards
manu
Good Morning Ilango and Friends.
JSW (@209+) results today - expected some upward movement - jfiy.
Ilango - holding RIL and Grasim expecting breakouts - can I?
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Hii..musti,
ORB has given a buy.
Hi..Manu,
I have suggested to close the shorts and go long at the open.
RIL channel resistance comes at 1100 and it has broken above that.
Hi..Rajagopal,
RIL has broken out above 1100 and 1120 should now be the next confirmation.
Acc has moved up sharply yesterday. So Grasim should do too.
I am SHORTING at 5274 with a 10 point SL. Looks like a false ORB.
@ Ilango - Yes sir, I did the same what your cretic said...cos 5 high ema also 5270
Is it may touch 5230?? as per 5 min chart (yesterday) or 5252?
Thanks in advance.
Regards
hi..manu,
Unitech correction is on. Good supports around 83.0. If it can hold 78-75 and surpass 91.50, it can make some big moves. Next few days trading should give some clues.
nw it hs bounced back frm 86.5 and close 2 ur high f 91.5..shld i exit unitech shrts..
Hi Guys,
As per my study, recomended :
BUY for ICICI & RCom..
Now both up move.. enjoy profits..
tks
anandan.R
Hii Ilango sir, i exited my shorts. Now we sud be long if 5225-30 comes??
I , being a conservative didnt went long @ 5265 as S & R too far.
I have updated a new post with Chart.
Hi..Manu,
That is my view on Unitech a few days back as well as few weeks back.
S&R for the longs should be now @ 5235.
bizagra,
There is a good likelihood that NF may not come down to 5225-30 levels today. The breakout was @5240, so my buying range is between 5240-5250. Since I am short @5274, those 30 odd points should be good enough to cover for my SL at 5205. That's my approach.
Mr. Ilango Sir,
I HAVE SHORT NF AT 5270 WITH SL 5280. WHERE SHOULD I COVER, IF NF COMES DOWN ?
Thanks.
Mr.Ilango Sir,
I think you are busyyyyyyyyy.
Can any body give reply?
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