Thursday, January 21, 2010

Nifty makes a lower low after a lower high @ 5293..

Ability to "sit thru' your positions" based on the tech table(Nifty has been closing below the Day-High-ema for the past many days inspite of intra volatility)rewards that patient one.
We salute "Laxsmi Rajagopal" for that "Patience" shown in the past many days and to those silently "Holding their Sell positions".
You are right only when you make money..



26 comments:

jayrang patel said...

dear ilango no what to do for sbi as i am holding a lot of 2190 call of sbi at 52 rs.waiting for your guidance.

Unknown said...

illango sir.....am not here to flatter and do not wish to do that too...........but my heart eagerly wishes to tell u and every followere of this blog that...........your analytical projections is almost perfect. Perfect here means literally perfect. Whatever you predicted or repeatedly spoke or warned, it did happen eventually. dont see this as another flattering statement, but true to the core. Market, though took time, just followed the way you charted it out !!!!!

Simply fascinating anaylsis. Hats off !!
Plz Plz take us along in this academic journey.

humble regards to the maestro !!!!

Babu said...

ka,
You are absolutely right. Everything he predicted. What made me to keep short from 5272 onwards is, the next day of my short onwards, Sir made ?? of upper target. Then I felt, sir is not sure about upside. Otherwise sir only analyzed every thing. I never looked closed bellow Day High ema..etc even I don’t know what is that despite each minute fallowing this blog.
Sirji,
Today, this post is having some more good words from you. That is ‘Ability of patience’. This also you need to taught to this blog followers. Some times I am surprising about few questions like I took long position @xxxx what to do now?” these are all like me people. If Sir is not there, we don’t know what to do with this trade. Like me people always you should suggest conservative trades, if not possible to take ask them to sit with cash. Last time also I mentioned this, if I am telling no one will be ready to listen. If you tell…. It goes in to mind. The same request to ‘ANANDAN’ too. Today if SUZLON, UNITECH went up as he told, but like me people may caught up in middle. I paid so much of money as fee for Ashwani gujral. He made money… but not like your conservative calls. I want to write more :) but I don’t want to occupy your space and make you feel boar :)

manu said...

SIR,
this is amazing..

@ rajagopal is also doing great wrk
regards to both

naveen said...

Hello mr. Dear Ilango ,

Firstly at the outset let me tell that i am a learning trader and new to your blog and technical anylis, though your first chart of nifty looks like a " RISING WEDGE WHICH WHEN OFTEN RESOLVE TO DOWNSIDE ANR VERY SHARPLY AND FAST " . If thats the case please tell is it wise to go short on nifty now as a positional trade and what stop to use , coz as i know if its a rising wedge it usally corrects to its starting point which in this case its at 4535.kindly give your input and any juicy shorts on the frontliners high betas which may give double the returns than nifty . Thanks .

Prosenjit said...

east or west, ilangosir is the best!!!

satheesh said...

Ilango sir, what you said is very true "you are right only when you make money". I sincerely back up that statement bcoz i was not able to do so and still trying to do but not yet succeeded!!! Anandan sir rightly pointed out that we book out even little profits but wait for huge losses!!! I have to admit that i am making huge losses. I am admitting it in order that i should not commit such mistakes again and sit tight with my trades not trying to play the fool around with hard earned money

sadanand balwant said...

Dear Ilango,
Good Eve.These are few abnormal figures which are noticed after a sharp fall,when in this series where there are just 4 trading days are available.26 Jan Republic day.
* FII sold Rs.853.75 Cr.In cash market
* FII Net sold index futures Rs.3881.78 Cr.
* FII Net bought index options Rs.2010.76 Cr.
* FII Net sold stock futures Rs. 411.41 Cr.
* Fii Net bought stock options Rs. 20.73 Cr.
Jan Nifty added 1423950 O.I.
And now these are option O.I.figures for JAN SERIES.Again,just 4 trading days to go for expiry.
* 5000 CE O.I.1195050 addition of 322200 O.I.
* 5100 CE O.I.3338200 addition of 2409400 O.I.
* 5200 CE O.I.5748000 addition of 1591150 O.I.
* 5300 CE O.I.8178400 addition of 1498250 O.I.

* 4800 PE O.I.2948950 addition of 139500 O.I.
* 4900 PE O.I.3883100 addition of 676700 O.I.
* 5000 PE O.I.6475050 addition of 1786800 O.I.
From these figures it looks like there shall be tug of war between 5000 and 5100.Let us wait for match result.

vicky.. said...

dear ilango sir...
first of all...i m new to TA.i would like to learn from you a lot sir.though this is my first time,when i m having the pleasure to converse with you legend.but you are so friendly helping,that its looking like we know each other since long.thanks a lot for this kind support.
in my previous post,when i asked abt 3rd wave,u replied..
hi..vicky,

Once a sharp fall happens and the counter rally fails near 62% or higher but not clear the starting point of the down move, that is a good selling point.

Nifty has been doing only "abc" (1,2,3) since the low of 4539.

Presently, post 5309 high, it dropped sharply to 5170 and retraced upto 5293, and it is falling now targeting app. 5154
so is this 3rd wave started.i was shorting since 4500 levels.but always stopping out.waiting for this since long.
where should u initiate a positional short???
do guide us sir.
kind regards....
vicky....

A J said...

Hi all
I have Updated the calls for tomorrow in my blog,trend now is sharply down with most of stocks and commodities trending down Nifty and bank index both down for short term swing trades
Intra day bounce should be sold
http://financeandtradingmadeeasy.blogspot.com/

kris said...

Non-technical News:

Breaking news from Cnnmoney.com
"Obama proposes curbs on banks to rein in risk by limiting securities trading, says he's ready to 'fight' if industry pushes back.

Ilango said...

Hi..Jayrang Patil,

"SBI" was the only stock in the banking sector failed to rally up. I will update tomorrow morning. Always have a SL for all your trades. Never give away more than a trade deserves. It is not worth it.

Hi..Naveen,

This sharp reversal will be bigger than all the previous corrections witnessed so far since Mar.09. Plan your trades accordingly.
For starters, writing calls is preferable.

Many stocks have just commenced the Channel break similar to Nifty. Exiting from investments in part is a prudent thing to do.

Hi..Mynac,

Your statistics and the "conclusion" in the end will surely boost one's confidence.

A faster reversal of the last rise to confirm a trend reversal means falling to 4944. Hence 5000 puts adding OI makes sense.
The moment the channel broke @ 5180, 5100 CE must have been written in a hurry realising the deep bearishness of a larger reversal.

I have erred at times when I have focussed only on the short term. But when ever I read from "week", then to "day" and finally to "Hour", I find I understand the price moves better. Practice this one.

Bindu said...

In the last hour of the trading i saw huge buys in the 5300 and 5400 calls.can anybody throw some light on it ?????

vicky.. said...

ilango sir...
waiting for ur kind reply.
do u online on gtalk sir??
kind regards ....
vicky....

vicky.. said...

ilango sir...one more querry sir.the trend line from march lows has been broken in ur charts.does it means that all the "tezi" from march lows is in risk now???
kind regards....
vicky....

sadanand balwant said...

“I have erred at times when I have focused only on the short term. But when ever I read from "week", then to "day" and finally to "Hour", I find I understand the price moves better. Practice this one.”
Dear Ilango, Thanks for your guidance,and your humble dis-closer.
We everyone will and must practice this one.Thanks again.

sadanand balwant said...

This was posted by Brett Steenbarger Author of TraderFeed
Six Trading coach Fundamentals
A huge predictor of a trader's success, I find, is the amount of time they spend in learning and guiding their own development. I call this self-coaching time: the efforts that traders make to sustain continuous performance improvement.

Here are some of the best practices that I see among traders who have made a career of trading, sustaining success across years of shifting market conditions:

1) Keeping a log or journal, tracking what they did right and wrong, and always doing more of what's working;

2) Using the journal to set and pursue goals, so that they're always working on their game;

3) Taking time away from trading to develop new ideas and methods and to rejuvenate;

4) Preparing rigorously for the trading day and week, so that they're primed to act when opportunity presents itself;

5) Keeping close tabs on P/L over time, so that they can identify slumps and drawdowns early and make appropriate adjustments in risk levels and trading approaches;

6) Reading, reading, reading, and talking, talking, talking: always learning from others;

These best practices ensure that the trader is always adapting to markets, shoring up weaknesses, and maximizing strengths. It's not just the time in markets, but the time spent in self-coaching that turns a trading job into a long career.

Anandan said...

Hi guys, Hope every one panic, World Markets Down.. Dow Down... Sure there will be Impact on our markets.. Reversal can see from 5050.., Next one week you can watch out.... This is just operators play.. They wish to BUY at lower levels for this they try to create such panic.., Thanks Anandan.R

Unknown said...

Illango sir and Mynac........y'days fall was confirmed even before it started......when illango sir spoke about f.MACD entering negative zone and RSI....and market started adding huge NAKED put buying at 5100 and 5000. This hpnd at around 12.30 or 1 pm.....the fall was imminent.

coming to OI stats...5000 & 5100 would have proved a good zone to play, but overnight news of Obama's bank restriction could have telling effect on India and other FII dependent markets.........
even if its not a serious move, market men would use this as a reason to pull it back to low dips to start afresh again.....

Illango sir, am i not right ?

Mark said...

Ilango sir,

Please conrrect my understanding, trend is broken, a reversal will be confirmed when the price test the broken support and continue to downside. Am I right sir ?

Hi Anandan,

This is my understanding. Operators cannot play in Nifty, they need huge chunk of money for that. they can play in only individual stocks.

FII's had sold 4953 cr... yesterday.

Mahes

mo h said...

ilango ji
sgx nifty o 4985 h 5010 L 4985 c 5005 at 8:15 ist
All the markets [global] down -2%
an info, sir.

mo h said...

bolinger bottom 5070
50dsma 5115
200dsma 4564
kpl reversal 4956
ichimoku cloud top 5047
cloud bottom 4861
3dema 5156
7dema 5198

A J said...

Hi Ilango and readers
GM to all
SAP for conservative shorts now i feel is 5075 on Nifty futures
will update EOD on my blog
http://financeandtradingmadeeasy.blogspot.com/

A J said...

I mean SAR for conservative shorts now i feel is 5075 on Nifty futures

Ilango said...

GM. to all.

Net problems at home.

Just post the Pre-Market view after the market has opened.

This trendline break is quite a serious one. Do not take it lightly. Just remind yourself...the trend is down. Let us see how the 4944, the last pivot low holds..Then we will review it..One round os profit booking may happen there..Let us look for + ve div to develop..many hours away..

rekha said...

dear sir,

kindly send me excel sheet tech table. my id is rekha867@gmail.com

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