4757 - market has paused to complete this 3rd wave down and may have started a 4th wave towards 4900-4950+..This is as per a perceived EW analysis..
One could wait for the arrest of this down momentum by an hourly close above the "Hour Low Ema" before acting.
Chart updated @ 2.20PM:
96 comments:
Ilango sir according to this monthly data, we shouls close above 4874 ie month 5 ema for monthly scale upsides.?
It is 4899(last month ema), to keep the monthly TA up.(This month ema keeps changing as per the close we are updating)
Most likely it may close below 4899. Then the low ema protecting is important. This too may move lower upto 4600+/-.
So last pivot low of 4539 is most critical.
Ideal buying is @ 200SMA(4600+/-) with a sl of two days close below 200sma.
I think we should again enter an aggressive buy suggested in the morning at 4805 is still valid for a technical bounce to at least 4840 for a stop at 4775
Dear Ilango,
So far you could road-map Nifty's Southern Journey to near perfection.
Is 4600 the bottom of the pit from where the ball can bounce ? Or an interim bounce could be seen before Nifty touches Kanyakumari ?
Please tell us.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Dear Mr. Ilango Sir,
Can I go short in NF at present leve with SL of 4865 as a conservative trader?.
Pl. give me reply, as I am going out of station now only.
Thanks.
I thicnk the journey to 4600 will not be a smooth one. Some sort of decent bounce is bound to happen. It could be small bounce from these levels (4800) or may be from 4725 where multiple supports lie for nifty. On the fundamental side, I think we are reading too much into the RBI policy. Instead of a breakdown, one may witness a bounce after the announcement of the policy.
hi..Rajagopal,
Once we reach Chennai(4600), let us see whether Nifty shows any inclination to visit Kanya..!!At times, it could overshoot to Columbo also..Won't your 20% love that.
So time correction also need to be considered.
Hi..Prashant,
Your reading for an immediate bounce is based on the +ve div visible in the "Yahoo 5 day Chart".
RajagopaL,
i THINK, the Nifty is going deep South....how far. I dont know. By end of this year it is definitely going to happen.
Something is cooking in the policy procedure. The banks are rallying and I am getting outta of my other BNF at 8425.
nifty looks readu for breakout 10 points atleast
hi..Prabhakar,
Let us wait for this bounce to show some resistance @ higher level. It is possible for a break of 4865 today..Sell atleast 100 points away from the low level..Ideally above 4920-4950 zone.
Till then trade if you have time.
The fall in the previous series may be attributed to the stacking of huge long build up across the market in expectation of further upside. As the market didn't oblige, it led to a breakdown of sorts. Similarly in this series, stacking of shorts may be witnessed leading to a sharp bounce towards the end of the series just before the budget. Before that we may go to 4725/4600.
Dear Mr.Ilango,
I am of the veiw that we have completed iv of 5th wave impulsive down at 4787 Nifty. Now we may head upward for 3 to 4 days in A-B-C corrective UP and that may take us aroud 5000 NS. That may be wave 2. That should be best point for shorting Nifty in wave 3 down. If you have different strong view, please correct me.
sab ilango sir ka ashirwad hai
yes sir,
The divergence was visible in the yahoo chart. Did u also observe that?
Sir....i was just going thru the real time charts and felt 4752 to 4770 could be possible below which 4698 might also be. On the upside 4838 to 4850.
Kindly help me with your views.
While I write this post..i see huge build up of OI in 4600 and 4800 PEs since morning. So, your 1st target of 4600 is very much alive !!!
P.S: Its just purely educative purposes. and only meant to get clarified by Illango sir not to take as real levels plz.
Thanks a lot
hi sir ,
in bank nifty hourly chat up side breakout seen upside plz comment on it can i book profit on long ?
I am completely out of BNF. Booked 200 points profit (after brokerage) on 2 Lot.
Holding onto Nifty Long with an avg of 4800 or so. Booked some profit at 4829.95.
crr hiked by 75 bps...
CRR hiked by 75 basis point...
sri
consequences may be
1. liquidity will be sucked from the system
2. slight upward bias in interest rates
3. yield in gov sec market may go up forcing the equity market to shed more points to adjust with the yield in other assets
4. currency may appreciate little to adjust with fall in inflation
sri
Ilango sir, i am holding conservative short @4835 with SL 4865. Can i hold them for 4600?
I think we discussed about this RBI policy yesterday that "Sell the rumours and buy the news".
After a knee jerk reaction, it will be up as a corrective move.
hi all,
buy and hold tatacomm at cmp of 313..
sl 300..tgt 440. (positional)
stock showing distinct positive divergence.
risk 13
reward 130.
regards,
ankit.
Ilango, how about going 2 long mini and writing ce4900 @100 would this be a safe method?
Sir,
+ve div in hourly chart.
Regards,
Deepak
Dear Ilango,
Thanks. "Mind is a Monkey" it has started nagging about the longs in the basket.
----------
Nifty - Manu and Many will feel NIFTY is a Northern-mother with a South Indian bahu. Bahu does not want MIL's visit. Go Back NIFY....
---all of us at Chennai.
ilango sir,
was contemplating your premarket view "sorry".i sincerly feel that-
1.people like me babble a lot here with all the theories of divergence,options,etc.its enough to distract even a saint.so we should be sorry for the conditions that led to the wrong call.
2.since the last three months that i have been following u regularly,i find that u try to benifit day traders by analyzing daily small waves,which are most difficult to judge in technical analysis.so with a success ratio of 99% ,u should'nt be sorry.
3.i strongly feel that conservative trade should be posted after EOD analysis,to rectify the wrong if done any.
4.just vindicates the belief that we are chatting with a human and not a programmed high speed machine with all the emotions as a sub program.
thanks for all the knowledge provided here.god bless,continue the good work
Ilango said...
hi..Bizagra,
You can have shorts with a SL of 4865 and the same may be brought down by 5 points every hour.
January 29, 2010 10:19 AM
sir....market is seeing good PUT OI addtion from 4600 to 4800 and CALL OI addtion from 4800 to 5000.......5000 seeing the max !
So, it seems to confirms 4600 to 5000 would be the range to reckon with in the very near future.
@ raja..
MIL will come once 2 south but will finally head 2 north..its home..80% ppl live in north..shrt visits 2 south r good to visit temples..
hi..men,
I would prefer you to write 4600 or 4700 puts and 4900 or 5000 calls. And close out 4900/5000CE @ 4600 and close out 4600/4700PE @ 4950-5000.
hi sir, gm
thnx fr mail..
i hope u c 4600 before 4950 in reply to men..
Hi Manu,
Accepted. Just checked NIFTY's family tree. Confirms that she is a North Indian. Profit is her Son (married to a South Indian girl) and Loss is her husband.
Naturally, SI Girl does not want mother in law to come. So please sms/send a telegram recalling NIFTY (tell her to dump her hubby in bay of Bengal).
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Relax. Contorted faces and tense brains don't make more money. Money making is not our Motive - it is just an habit.
Dear Rajagopal,
"Money making is not our Motive - it is just an habit."
This is a wonderful tagline - i hope some marketeer steals it and makes good money. :)
Best regards.
Ilango thanks, these calls and puts which u suggest to write are they to be backed by contra pos in nifty? Thanks for the reply
Me again. Week end mood has set in. (planning to walk up St.Thomas Mount - hope my wife approves tommorrow - Walking is the Best joy at no cost).
-------------------
Today after my morning walk, finding some extra time, indulged in Channel hopping. After spending 7 mins listening to various reasons given by experts (Obama to Osama/Davos to Delhi/RBI to Reliance), a story which most of us learnt in our primary school came to mind.
Can I narrate it ...
Four blind men were taken to the zoo to give them a feel of an Elephant. The first blind man touched the elephant's stomach and exclaimed oh ! elephant is a wall. The second one in the meantime, was running his hand over its leg and disputed the first saying "no.elephant is a pillar". The third one by that time reached upto the elephants ear and said "fools. It is a big fan". Not to let out, the last blind man caught the elephant's tail and said "You are all wrong. Elephant is a thick rope".
Who was right ? Naturally None.
This is how our TV Experts view Market scenario. Just 70-90 points up then it is heading to the Moon. Same count down then Market is going through the earth.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
This is my third aggressive buy @ 4790
The 1st move after a credit policy is always a false move. It is true for S&P/Dow and here too in India the same rule seems to apply. So did not get stopped out of Nifty Futures yet.
Thankfully I booked 100% profits in BNF. I rebought it back again (only 1 lot now) with day's low + 10 as SL.
Still latching onto NF with 4800 basis and day's low + some change as my SL.
mr.Ilango,
I believe we can keep SL as today's low for this aggressive buy
cheers
krish
Shishya to Guru - just an appeal.
--------------------------------
Please consider swing trades for minimum points (say 15-20). I caught the point to point bus 4 times so far for a total of 90 points.
Since you are in, I am cutting my Short initiated at 4815 and going long here.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
ILLango,
Where can I book my NF longs for the day ? I have a sell order for half my trade @ 4845, but then that would be the area of ORB break out.
So not sure right now where to book.
The rest at 4855-4860 is what I am thinking.
Ilango,
What would be the hourly low ema for 1.00pm assuming the lows as of now for this hour 12-1.00 pm holds? This could be an early Early Warning System.
Best
First target is 4825.
Above 4835, a breakout rally. should then see the tech table if it moves up accordingly.
4794 will be the "Hour Low ema" for 1.00PM if this low of 4781 holds during this hour.
hi..nifty,
trail it up..this could be a big one. OR exit once @ 4835-4840.Lets see @ 1.00PM.
Also the "Hour High ema" would be around 4835+
hi llango,
any chance of this being the 5th down?? and the mkts starting an upmove from here or whereva this wave ends, say even 4600??
regards,
ankit.
Dear Ilango,
As per my PIB hourly data are as follows;
Time High Low Close
29/01/2010 10:00 4,835 4,793 4,797
29/01/2010 11:00 4,812 4,787 4,806
29/01/2010 12:00 4,827 4,766 4,791
29/01/2010 13:00 4,806 4,782
Please clarify.
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Ilango sir , anything for conservatives who dont have any position?
Can anyone see falling wedge in 1 min NSEI chart??
I see big time buying in mid caps. Tata Comm is on fire, great call buddy.
hi..ankit solanki,
Looking at the "Oversold" nature of the markets and the sub-waves set up, the 3rd wave started from 5293 may have ended @ 4757.
The channel has been breached now. Follow up action is pending.
After a rally to 4920-4950+(4th), it should fall into the 5th towards 200sma.
hi..Sanjay,
I have been keying in the approximate leves. Yours should be correct.
Ilango sir , above your EW analysis says conservatives can short again near 4900 or buy near 4600. Am i right??
Ilango,
whats the value of the upper channel and at what rate is it falling every hour?Also has the nifty managed to stay above the channel.If yes what are the implications?
manoj
ILango sir, i m a conservative trader ,still i went long @4820. Plz tell wht sud be SL for a conservative? Can i keep it 4790?
hi..bizagra,
Trade the points now. Positional can only be shorts with this set up but at higher levels.
hi ilango,
this is my 1st post here. I'm tracking your blog since last one week. And really find it very good.
I am also long @4795NF .
do you think we might see some short covering at the end of the day?
regards.
hi..manoj,
Nifty breakout value was 4835 and it has broken out. However, it could face resistances @ 4850-4860 and head south again..
Presently up and heading towards 4850-4860.
One can trail it or book out of 30-50 points.
Ilango,
What would be the s&r for aggresive trade initiated at 4790?
thks
Dear Ilango,
What should be cnservative short
Thanks & regards
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
hi..Manoj,
Lets only trade this long till 4865 - 4876(Day Low ema)..If it moves higher than that..will see then..
hi..AIM,
Welcome..
A brief short covering is on on the announcement of the RBI policy(an excuse).
hi..Sanjay,
Conservative short may be initiated @ 4920-4950 or higher based on EOD analysis.
These are only intraday trading while Nifty seems to be "pausing"..
Thanks Ilango,
manoj
sir, 4600 PE had seen a huge addtion of 13 lac followed by 4800 and 4700. 5000 CE added 14 lac while 4900 CE 11 lac so far.
thats the data for your perusal to guide us further.
thanks a lot
Ilango - holding or closed out 4790 Long?
Regards,
S Rajagopal.
Holding as it has closed above the "Hour High ema".
4876 is the day Low ema..
Book out near 4865
Ilango,
It seems that we may see a correction of the entire fall from 5300 levels a fall of nearly 540 points.Acorrection of 38.2% should see us around 4966 levels.50% correction would be 5030.
Should hold long initiated at 4790.Quwstion is what should be the SL or S& R.
THANKS
Dear Ilango,
Can conservative go long from here, or what is conservative short - 4920
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
hi ilango,
booked profit (75 points) @ NF4870
credit goes to your aggressive call.
thanks.
hi..Sanjay,
Presently a corrective 4th wave "up" is on which will have its own ups & downs. We will only trade them. A broad range of 4830/4850 to 4950/5000+ may be possible in the next 2-3 days.
Sir,
with bank policy , whether pre budget rally started and if so whether it wil clear the previous high. Nifty corrective rally or pre budget rally
Bala
ILLango,
What does "Book out near 4865" mean ? Book positions establisdhed at 4800 or something else ?
sir......nifty breaking that channel and also surpassing 20 HMA. And still good buying continuing. will this mean that market can go to test 35 sma of 4921 today possibily ?
regards
hi..Bala,
It is a corrective rally.
hi..Nifty,
That is a tentative resistance and hence book out of longs created from 4790.
Now the mkt gives 100.. :)
Guys,
Bullish crossover of 21hrs sma over 35 hrs sma in above updated charts posted by Ilango.
Ilango thanks for timely updation.
Ilango,
Close above which level would make you comfartable to carry longs if you think so.
thanks
ILLango,
Booked out at 4871....but the train keeps chugging along. No big deal. I had the best Friday since June 2009.
Booked 3 lot of 100 points in BNF. Wild trade in Hcl tech, 50+ points in NF.
Thanks to u ILLango. I can sleep well this weekend.
Thanks to you Illango, gained book 100 points in today's aggressive buy call.
Ilango Sir, can you give an idea how bank shares might behave onwards?
In the uptrend in last one hour, bank shares have recovered more and so can we expect some more up?
Thanks
Ilango sir,
Went out today on a personal work just returned. Missedout the entire session. what can be done now? just sit and watch for next session???:):)
hi..Manoj,
Closing above day Low ema @ 4876 will arrest this fall temporarily.
Hi..Desikan,
Bank shares were beaten down ahead of this CRR hike. and now short covering is on. Along with the rest of the pack, these also may rally higher.
Mr.Rajagopal, Your witty/educative posts on "walking the talk" are very nice. I also want to do the walk regularly but lack the motivation somehow.
Thank You Master. Nearing the end of a rewarding week. Closed Shorts in Nifty. Shorts initiated in the Stock Wealth identified counters.
Will this pull back last till 5000+ as suggested in some of the technical views expressed ?
Best Trade done by blog mate NIFTY in HCL. Kudos.
Is it go Long time ....
Please help me.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
hi..Satheesh,
Sad..you missed a sharp reversal trade.
Now that 3rd seems to be in place, 4th will have a wild ride for intraday traders.
Hi..rajagopal,
Yeah..It is "Long" time. May not be a one way travel. A possible gap up if "Dow" follows us.
As Nifty is below the 5 day ema(4965), I do not recommend overnight. It is upto individuals to take that decision.
If we had held on to that "4790", , then yes, hold overnight.
May be we should break now and go for that pending walk..Marina or Santhome..or may be Mahabalipuram..with a brief halt @ VGP
Okay sir fine. Idhuvum Kadanthu Pogum!!!
sir...are you angry with me or disappointed with my posts ? no replies at all /
plz forgive me if am acting against your principles.
Great Mr.Illango ji. I really wondered about ur selfless service. Thanks a lot. GOD BLESS YOU.
BEST WISHES.
hi..Ka,
Absolutely not.
I was in a light mood and was answering unrelated issues.
Rally for the day is done and now we should only look out for that 4876..
With so many comments, missing yours is not intentional. And for that matter anyone's.
Mr.Rajagopal,
Your comments are so nice and encouraging.
Thanks
sir nifty is likley to close above 4876 should i carry long taken at 4800
I know....i felt the same when so body floating mails on actual trading positions......
just got a thought ( or feeling ) of child trying to talk to father ( who is busy ).....
humble apologies god-father for that......
Immensely thankful for your amazing help !!
take care sir
NIFTY TAKING A SUPERB SUPPORT AT 4976 WE ARE TAKING ON YOU !!!!!
regards
Satheesh - Best one for the day. Thanx.
-----------------
Ilango - Do you walk ? No Marina. Will walk up St.Thomas Mount. Great Joy.
All - please walk.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Dear Ilangoji,
during this rally u had given me an alternative wave count for sensex with move from 15600 to 13220 as "a " only and a-b-c completion at 14684.
on break of 16578 i tried to find out some bullish alternative and i tried one before 2 ds which i had put at vfm also alongwith my blog.
i put the link.it is bullish view amongst total bearish enviornment. pl give yr comments on that.of course higher low higher confirmation nedded. this is predictive only.
http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2010/01/all-is-well.html
Pankaj Shah
Rajagopalan ji
Shall I accompany with your walk. Will you please give me your No pl, if no objection to my mail id sundaribala2008@gmail.com
bala
Hello sir nifty will bounce upto 5080 and 5120 before expiry
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