Retracement strategy, a must for traders.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
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I 'll always be there for you. To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark... -
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
95 comments:
hi everyone,
go long with sl of 4940 in spot. a break of 4940-4920 will lead to a massive selling. however holding the same might see a fierce counter rally..
regards,
ankit.
sir, i took longs nf 4950 ..
nw whr shld i book or wait fr nifty 2 move abv 5050 and 5145..(positional)..
Dear Ilango - I am a born again TA follower. Just 2 sentences brought me to this site. 1. by Mr Livermore on the right and 2."don't boast about your profits. Wait for the windfalls"-Ilango.
To be honest, I committed the blunder of an "anti trend-blind short" (in many counters) and you were the only one who was predicting the Technical feasibility of a downward movement. It is my good time - that my mistake is paying me instead of me paying for my mistake. Won't stretch or test my luck again.(I must have made all the Gods to play the "bears" yesterday).
Thank you once again.
--------------
U.K Raj - Yes. Lakshmi is with me. 100% of financial decisions in the family are taken by her - I concede that and god's grace the reasons for my family's status today. I am one of the men who ADMIRE their wife for aggression
backed by prudence. Only with her approval and support I came to this market after 17 years of ogling it. I know she speaks to each of the 3 brokers once a month atleast and obtains a first hand report of my trading.
Warm regards,
S Rajagopal
5030-5050 is a first minor resistance - (Hour Low ema)
Ilango sir wht is a good level to short again as i booked but yr conservatives are still holding.
sir , its very difficult..i m new 2 this blog..keeping in mind ta ,ew lvls hrs,days,week..
i do not knw hw rajagopal/sir keeps discipline..i closed my shrts ystrdy and long nw..whr 2 exit or s&r is difficult..hope learn with time..
Ilango sir, the big 3rd wave has started??wht u say.
@ Rajagopal,
Very glad to hear. Woman is behind every successful man.
Regards.
Gm everyone As Ilango has warned us all that we should not take the break of a
major trend line lightly .We should be selling the rallies now unlike buying dips previosly. There is a good chance that we may have seen an intermediate top of the rally starting March lows.trade with this in mind.
If you are taking any long trades, book out periodically with 50+ points.
I will point out if there are any +ve div to look for a sustainable reversal.
Do not get carried away by intra day moves.
As "Bizagra" has done, you may also book out of a "Big Profits" in shorts and resell..
As per the Tech table, the correct level to sell is closer Or above the "Hour High ema".
Dear Illango and boarders,
Though i know a Fool and his money part company soon...i am one such guy who after sitting out for long decided to be long on the day ..market decided to fall big...now i am stuck with long position in nifty future at 5106.....today i was tempted to square off in morning panic but held my nerve....now could anyone help me in minimising my losses...
your suggestions will be highly appreciated with a personal promise to self to be more disciplined and read more...
regards
Manu - discipline and Rajagopal - Unbeleivable.
My father to daughter - all will vouch for it.
As I have mentioned my short itself was the height of indisipline.
-------
On the serious side the short was in multiple lots and I have booked part-profit as instructed by Ilango and what I am carrying is only what I call the "bonus-proft".
All the best. ("Enni thuniga karmam -Thuninthapin ennuvam enbathu ezhukku-Kural"). Means think well before you act. It is a shame to think after acting.
Keep it in mind.
Warm Regards,
S Rajagopal
hi..Mash,
That is one of the toughest question to answer..
What is happening is a "Bounce" off the Oversold condition. How far this bounce can go..difficult but I suggested earlier 5030 to 5050 zone.
It could also go upto 5100(Day Low ema). Alternatively, it can reverse from 5030-5050 and make a new low around 4940 and then "Rally strongly" if any +ve div develops.
We all hope you get a relief soon..Exit with a minimum loss and do not regret if it goes past your "Exit rate". You will get new opportunities.
@mash...
you might get exit points if nifty crosses the inter resis levels of 5030 which ilango sir has psoted..its currently testing those levels...exit partly here and more if touches 5060..
@ramsfm
Idea is best performing stock in nifty today
Last night discussion turned out to be good
just hit 60
keep sar of 58 approx if you paln to hold it for next few days.... will update EOD on the blog...
Jesse Livermore:-"... They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."
Will the market let you sit tight??
5000 jan put has added 6L OI today indicating strong supports for this expiry ...(total OI at 70L)..5300 call is nearing 90L in OI...that was a strong barrier right from beginning...
5100 call has only 36L so we might just touch 5080-5100 if the inter resis is cleared
thank u so much illango and saif.....i normally dont believe in luck but right now i think i need it...
thank u so much...
I llango i have also been following ur blog for past one year very religiously....
but i have still not got that clarity of mind which is required to continue trading...hence i have decide to restart the study of ur method from the scratch...could u please suggest how to approach reading..
Thanks anuj and anandan..
Yes today from opening onwards it is perfroming well.. Booked profit@59.85..
Thanks,
Ramesh.
Ilango sir, plz clear the wave counts, i hope channel break confirms that 3rd big wave has started.@ gap downs also suggest this.wht u say?
thnx raja..
but plz ("Enni thuniga karmam -Thuninthapin ennuvam enbathu ezhukku-Kural") is out of my reach..i m n north(punjab) u n south..markets also heading south..on lighter moods..
hi..bizagra,
From the NS 5309, this one is an obvious 3rd wave. 2.618 times the 1st wave will target 139 x 2.618 = 364 points...5293 - 364 = 4929.
@ramsfm
Hmm booked profits...very swiftly you have done that
do you book your losses as swiftly as you have book this profit?
If not then...there is a problem....which we all face
get out early on profit and hold on to losses
and end of the month we end up with loss.
once again...the quote
Jesse Livermore:-"... They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."
@manu
HA HA
hi..mash,
Go through the "Technical Analysis" in the label section.
Most basic is "The Trendline Method" which does not require any technical knowledge but simply a supply & demand sustaining a line or breaking it whenever one overpowers the other.
To understand that "tussle of bulls & bears", you have "MACD"(Directional indicator) and "Stochastics"(Lead indicator). Combine these two with "Tech Table" Ema positioning, you have a winning combination.
The above study is the most basic and will keep you focussed.
Whenever your study throws a "Confusing picture", keep off the market and observe it at a distance and waiting for the market to show you a resolution.
Best of luck.
Yes Anuj, Booked profit on IDEA@59.85 and BHARTI futures today and still holding 2 lots of 5100CE@53.30 and one lot of IDEA57.50PA @1.10 both are in loss..
Thanks,
Ramesh.
100 points off from the low..equally strong bounce...have to watch 5060 zone carefully
see addition of 5000 CE....28 lacs since morning....and it has a strong point to tell us !! and 4900 PE & 5000 PE are seeing considerable addtions signifying the range........and significant liquadation seen at 5100 and 5000 PE's.....another good point for understanding......though hours charts showing rsi and schoS bouncing back....
and no sign +ve div in f.macd....its dived down!
illango sir.......your expert comments should enlighten us here....
regards
hi..Manu,
What is written by "RajaGopal" is one of the 1400+ couplets written by a great Tamil Poet & philosopher translated in most of the languages. The poet's name is "Thiruvalluvar" and the Collection is called "Thirukkural"(Divine words or voice).
I would urge everyone to buy that "Tiny Book" which is full of such profound truth and it should change the readers approach to life totally.
Dear Ilango Sir,
Exact resistance near 5050
Sold my long from 5000
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Hi..Sanjay,
Good entry & exit..
Dear Ilango Sir,
All bcoz of ur teachings
SIr, can we keep a postional Short, what should be S&R
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Ilango sir, hour Low ema at 11 was 5080, so we can again short near 5080, i hope i m learning TA correctly?
sorry i mean hour high ema.
Ilango sir, if it is third wave then the rally is going to be big as per theory!!! please advise the course of action to be taken.
Hi Bizagra,
Hr LEMA @ 11 was 5041.
Regards
Happily apoaching 5100...cheers!!!
Anybody has any views on Punj Lloyd ?
I bought Feb futures on a dip under 187. The BB was pierced way down - so was Nifty's BB at 4950.
ILLango, Regarding 3rd wave for Nifty, we went very near your 4929 target. Does this mean wave 4 is currently running ? How far can up wave 4s move ?
r ril results are holding the markets..
As pointed out by "Mynac" yesterday, 5000 to 5100 is a trading range as per OI positions.
Since the fall at the open went beyond 5000 to 4955, and the bounce also seems to be sharp.
Iango sir one request is can you post the nifty chart with the wave count now? I think it will be easy to interpret.
Also one more doubt is as the major trend line is broken is is possible for the rally to start immediately?
OFF THE MARKET
sir one small correction :)hope you dont mind. Thirukkural consists of 1330 kurals and not 1400+ Sir I think this time you failed in your count!!!! :) :) :)
Dear Ilango Sir,
Sold near HEMA 5070
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Dear Ilango,
Many Thanks for your guidance.Your Tech.and Pivot Tables are key for us.Thanks again.
Hi Ilango,
I wish i could hug u and give u a kiss.. Hats off to ur selfless guidance.. I bow to ur knowledge and interpretation...
sanjay/sir
wht will be the sl & r fr 5070 shrt
@ sir
plz courier me d book if translated in english and ur bank a/c no. to transfer d money as i wl nt get it at my place..
regards
Dear Ilango sir,
please see the possibility of completion of B-C-5-4 today... and we might have started 5th of 5th.
Regards,
Amit
Ilango sir , i missed entering shorts @High ema5070, now sud i wait or enter now. I mean conservative shorts.
Satheesh,
I left TN a long long time ago. Sincere regret for this error.
As I say about EW...the count is not important but the direction. Similarly here too, count is not important but the "Truth" in it. I hope you forgive this small error.
Hi..Sanjay,
You seem to be surfing these waves beautifully.. I hope you have a SL in place.
Hi, dear sir
i am dought abt up side buz last closing time 5000 ce oi @ 1144350 and now it is at @ 3864400 so up 27.2 lakh plz guide
and also say abt bank nifty to buy or sell level ?
ilango sir please post the chart with wave count! yesterday in your EOD view, you had mentioned that that major channel is broken and there is a minor support at 4950 which was witnessned today. Then you had mentioned about major supports at 4650 -4750. So I was under the impression that the 3rd wave can commence only from that area!!
Mr.Ilango Sir,
I HAVE NF SHORT AT 5050. PL. GIVE ME STOP LOSS.
SL IN NIFTY FUTURE OR NIFTY SPOT/ PL CLARIFY.
THANKS
illango sir you are great. your interpretation and analysis are not comparable with any one.thanks for being with us and your guidance.but unfortunately i could not make money because of my tight work shedule.
is C wave started ????? A upto march lows. B upto january 2010 high. C upto where ???????????
Hi, guys, Did you book your profits or not..
So,, did you see sharp pull back.....
about Punjloyed.. HOLD.. today is the result day.. It will zoom.. If Feb.. sure will go about 40 points up with in days..
Thanks Anandan.R
Note : BUY Nifty JAN 5000 / 5100 Call.. for 100% profits..: & Sale 5100 Put and 5200 Put..
Jab Mkt Ho Out Of Control, Honto Ko Karke Gol
Honto Ko Karke Gol, Siti Bajaake Bol) - 2
Aal Izz Well Client Ka Jaane Potfolio Ka Kya Hoga
Are note Milegi Ya hospitel ke bed pe lie Hoga
Koyi Na Jaane Apana Future Kya Hoga
Hont Ghuma Siti Baja, Siti Bajaake Bol
Bhaiya Aal Izz Well, Arey Bhaiya Aal Izz Well
Arey Chaachu Aal Izz Well, Arey Bhaiya Aal Izz Well
Dear Ilango,as “Prakash” said it’s 100% true and by heart.
Many people reach at top but just Tendulkar like people are remembered because when they reach at top, then they settles themselves there and then create own place there without disturbing others. Why we all blog mates are here because you are The Tendulkar for us.
Hi..Amit,
I do not see such a possibility.
Most of these waves are of "abc" kinds.Accordingly the move from 4539 too had similar "abc". Now if nifty breaks the 4944 which will happen soon, the technical set up will change.
We will treat this as an intra day bounce. It is still quite far away from the 5-day ema. We should continue to be "Sell on rise" till the daily shows "Oversold" ..
Dear Ilango Sir,
Thanks for the encouragement. I am still learning. I have covered my short at 5030.
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Ilango sir I was telling about thirukkural just on the ligther side please do not take it as any regret. it is just like students trying to find some small mistake on the part of teacher and just enjoy mild tinglings!!!! - Your direction is always right!!!!
illango sir how far can this pull back be??
will it touch day low again??
Anandan,
Thanks for your info. Nice thing about Punj is that it is vwery close to its lows of 186. I got Feb for 186.75, so a tight SAR of 3/4 bucks. That's what attracted me to that. At these levels, the risk/rewards seems quite favourable. I mean for 3 bucks, one can get 30 bucks easily. A 10:1 risk in my favour.
Anandan, why r u bullish on Nifty ? I thought this was going to be a bigger fall - atleast to 4750 !
Manu - Sathsri Akal.(correct my spelling)
Try this site in your free time.
http://www.tamilnation.org/literature/kural/kaviyogi/tksindex.htm
For me there no moral code or ways and means in life beyond this 2000+ lines. Ranks right up there with the epics. Worth reading (thottanaithoorum manarkeni mandarkku kattranaithoorum arivu) "it is good for the well (kua) to be dug deep. It is good for the man to enrich knowledge"
Warm regards,
S Rajagopal
PS: Objections over-ruled. As every serious movie has a comedian, I don the role in this serious site of learned TAs.
hi..Rajnish,
Whether the dreaded "C" wave down has started..? It is not clear as "B" corrective waves are sucker wave with confusing sub waves.
There is a possibility of a fall upto 4700-4600 and then another rally to a new high(past 5310).
I am looking at this present down direction and leave the correct counting to later days when things get clearer.
Hi..Satheesh,
I will post those charts this week end. One scenario that we follow now is that a pause around today's lows with settlement ending closer to 4950..and then a corrective rally and then another bigger fall. So I will count this as an "abc-x-abc" corrections with "5309-5170-5293-4900-4950(abc); an "x" wave to a 38 - 50% rally and then another "abc" towards 4600-4700.
@ sanjay,/
why u cvrd shrts ?
as i S&r @ 5070 of longs taken at 4950..
@ sir
wht shld b d sl fr shrts nw
OFFTOPIC
Hi Manu,
you can downlod Thirukural from below link. There are lot of translations/versions available.
http://www.tamilnation.org/literature/Kural/kural_brown.pdf
regards.
deva
jayakant
good one. Another doha is "dukh mei sab kar sumiran - sukh mei kar na koi. agar sukh mei kar sumiran dukh kahan sae ayei"
translate as : if you care for the TA in good times, you won't search for it when the market is down.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Mr.Ilango Sir,
My NF short at 5050. Can I cover?
Thanks.
Dear Manu.
40 Points is not a bat deal.I am not that greedy. I have done it 3 times today. So didnot want to take more risk.
Thanks
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Hey Raj
This doha is from kabir...:)
I entered today morning at 4980 exited at 5050.
I regret my decision of quitting my put of 5200 at 57 yestd :(
Cheers
Akhil
Nice to feel that our blogmates are good at literature too :) Ilango sir your blog has become a place not only to learn TA and EW but also various other good ideas.
Mr. Ilango Sir,
Can I wait to cover my nifty short at 5050
Thankks.
hi..Prabhakar,
You have shorted exactly at the "Struggle area" as per yahoo intra chart.
Either you take off some profits or Hold with a SL of NS 5050.
Ilango sir , so according to TA, conservatives should sit out till a good bounce to short again that is near 5100-5150.Is it ok?
5015-5020NS is an intra support zone.
Below 5000, bigger fall.
Thanks you Mr.Ilango Sir
hi..bizagra,
In a fast falling mkt, it is difficult to say.
One opportunity that went by was above 5070+
In the next hour, we will know more..
Ilango sir, as u gave 4944 is very imp. if we break 4944, than can we take risk of creating shorts positionally?
Hi, dear sir
i am dought abt up side buz last closing time 5000 ce oi @ 1144350 and now it is at @ 3864400 so up 27.2 lakh plz guide
also some hint for bank nifty aproxy
One view I just discussed with my critic is " a range trading of 5010 to 5070-5080" for the rest of the day and make an attempt at 5100+ on Monday and head lower to 4950-4900 towards settlement.
Will watch closely whether Mkt. does so..
hi..alpesh,
I do not monitor anything else except Nifty during intra day.
My net at home was down and I couldn't post any in Stockwealth blog.
ok thx sir
It looks like that 5000 is the key for market.Bulls have trapped intraday 2800000 short-sells below 5000 till 1.30p.m. It will be very interesting at the end.
Mr. Ilango Sir,
If Nifty spot slips below 5000, can we go for Short in Nifty Future?
Thanks.
Hi Ilango,
Please correct my understanding. Support at 5100-5150 broken, The price will try to test the support again to confirm the trend broken. i.e, 5100-5150 .After test, if it is able to past the trend then it is extended correction or it will continue the downtrend.So market will try to test 5100 and based on the test it will decide the direction.
Mahes
went long at 5013 and booked out again at 5040..
Thx ilango.
Cheers
Akhil
hi llango,
is there any possibility of nifty turning from todays lows itself and making new highs?? if so, what count could it be?? in my opinion one could see a big rally towards pre budget if todays lows are held on closing basis.
regards,
ankit.
Ilango sir, as per tame chart of nse, it shows an opening high of 5094 and opening at 5094, but the traded bar in my intraday graph shows 5022 high in the opening. why is this discrepancy? you have also updated in your techtable as 5022.
2800000 were added between 9 to 10 a.m.It looks a big institutional fight.If market wants to go up then as per thumb rule it has to go nearer to its bottom ( which,it has not yet done in even intraday move) and if these shorts will kept by bears then deeper fall is expected.let us see.
Hi Everyone,
Today is 22 January 2009...its been 2 years since we had a limit down day that marked the beginning of bear market.I have posted a video link.,that takes us back to 22 January 2007 to relive that horrible moment. video will help you to make a plan to manage crisis situation.
Ilango said...
I do not keep track of news items at all. Believe that everything is in the prices..
However, any adverse comment may impact prices prominently.
"Satyam"- Insiders have been selling and the stock was in downtrend and the news aggravated it. Buy/ sell on rumours and close out your positions on the news.
January 21, 2010 11:49 AM
Illango made this very important observation yesterday....that we should go by what we see on our trading scree than news.
Check out how the so called experts made mistakes in reading the markets.
http://financeandtradingmadeeasy.blogspot.com/
sir can we take short now with a sl NS5080??
hi..ankitsolanki,
A break of the channel and staying below it the next day too does not offer any bullish possibility. Besides the Overbought weekly with their stochastics firmly turning down is bearish.
I will go by "Just what the prices are indicating". A bullish scenario only if this correction lasts atleast 3 weeks and then start a "budget rally..
sl hit 5050
@ rajagopal
its sat shri akal..
EU is getting green
New post with Tech table posted.
As per Asian cues and Europe resilience, Moving past 5077 looks possible. Today's Pivot is 5131..
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