Retracement strategy, a must for traders.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
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I 'll always be there for you. To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark... -
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
76 comments:
Good Morning
Sir if it is a running correction for bulls then the support will be taken from 5240 levels. Am I right sir? also NS has touched a lowof 5250 today and can this be taken as an accepted level or should we wait for 5240?
Hi..Satheesh,
We have given a tentative support area. You buy as much closer as possible & keep a SL below 5220 or lower.
Two way to handle this:
Wait for a breakout or an hourly close above Hour High ema.
Or Buy closer to the levels mentioned such as 5225-5240 with a small SL.
hi dear sir ILANGO
today bank nifty hourly high ema 9201 and low ema 9168 if hourly close below 9168 then it short or not ? plz reply
regards,
alpesh
Boss, pls tell me how can we calculate DAY EMA AND DAY LOW EMA
My email id ragav_1069@yahoo.co.in
DAY HIGH EMA AND DAY LOW EMA
Hi..alpesh,
In aggressive trade:It is a sell from the moment it closed below hour high ema.Use subsequent rises to sell and make sure it keeps closing below "Hour High ema". During this period, book small profits till a daily "Momentum weakening signal" is generated by a daily close below "Day High ema".
Weekly High ema is @ 9186.0 A close below means continued correction. And the daily High ema is @ 9193.
So if you want to sell - sell above 9193 and book out near 9160 or lower. This is the present reading.
Dear Ilango,
As per latest post, Fmacd is -ve and both 21 & 35-D are in/close to bear zone. Does it denote a break down to lower levels ?
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Ilango sir, nifty spot close is lower than both 10 & 11AM Hourly High EMA. I had taken my short at 5279 yesterday. Shall I continue to hold the short, as nifty close is below hourly high EMA for first two hours?
Dear IIango - am very glad to learn Elliot wave theory from your blog although i have started a week back - i have basically understood the concept however face some problem in application - when i study 1 month or 1 day chart of a script i basically see waves but they are not like 1 to five up or down neither are they like 1 to 3 - they start and end basically at the same price like zig zag - will send you some charts - if you could guide me in using the theory practically then i can move forward with great confidence - regards Togu
Hi..Rajagopal,
As mentioned in the morning post, there are two views presently running. Infact I would say three.
1. Bear: Overbought with negative divergences. But inspite of it all, Nifty is trading well above the 5-day ema.It took support @ 5144 yesterday. And today sofar @ 5251. A trade below 5251 & 5244 may weaken it upto 5235(Gap).
Is it just a time correction..? In the daily time frame, many looks OB too.
Any fall may be limited to 5130. Will review it if it comes there.
BULL: The correction is taking a "time consuming with shallow price falls". Prices are firm above short term averages.If it is running correction, then big moves aided by RIL breaking above 1120, SBI breaking above 2315 and so on.
BULL & Then Bear: Even if it breaks above & go up, 5320-5340 may offer strong resistances and may reverse from there for a deeper correction to 5150-5130.
thx sir 4 yr valuable suggestion
u r give me aggresive trade formula if i doing POSITIONAL TRADE in this equastion so whatts doing for that sir ?
Hii Ilango sir,plz explain why u gave both trade options for conservatives ie buy @5220-40 OR sell @ 5320. Does that means if goes near 5220 that means it is 4 th wave and if moves to 5320 that means 5 is ending? is this the reason?plz explain ,i m learning.
Hi..Saravana,
That was an intraday call which you have carried over. Nifty seem to be correcting within a small channel presently. If it closes below 5245, hold shorts overnight. Or book profits during intraday dips below 5250.
Remember - Nifty held 5245 for three hours yesterday. So that is a critical. However, that support has not resulted in any buying spree.
Breakout of that channel is 5285. Keep that as a SL today.
It is hardly a 20 point move. Take what you get. And then trade the breakout OR buy closer to the lower end of the channel @ 5225-5235 with a tight SL.
Boss, pls tell me how can we calculate DAY EMA AND DAY LOW EMA
Hi Ilango,
I am humbled that you feel like answering Child's squabble.
I am trying to abide by your rules, have been playing like VIRU so far - with the "beginners luck" and now afraid that I am hiding my losses by c/fd.
Thank You once again.
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Hi..Bizagra,
You have understood it so well. So we have one more person to share EW views. Good.
Ilango sir, thank u very much for an elaborate explanation, which makes my trade easy. I will hold the short taken at 5279 with nifty spot SL of 5285.
Hi..Alpesh,
I prefer selling into strength. So watch the daily positioning & take a view in the similar fashion.
It is likely to close below today's high ema which is 9193. Sell above that. It was available at the open. You have a good cushion in case it reverses. Now, follow it up with a daily close below yesterday's "close ema" which is 9146. If it stays above that, understand the risk and act accordingly as per your risk taking ability. Once closed below "day close ema", look for a possible support @ low ema.
Also take the weekly positioning. There is no formula here. If you combine EW & TA, all these will make better sense.
Hi, Guys, Market expected to be in positive side in the after noon trade.. Traders force to cover the shorts created yesterday and today morning trade.. Pl. be care full.... Anandan.R
Ilango Sir from where can we get the historical data for individual stocks on hourly basis? Because I feel it will be useful to trade in stocks using your tech table as I feel comfortable to trade in nifty.
It will be a break out above 5283. Nifty has held 5251-5253 for three hours and bouncing. A decisive break past 5285, will take it higher. So 1.00PM Close will confirm if there is a reversal.
also...55L OI in 5k put..and 48L on 5200 put...market seeking higher levels...
Hi..Gargyashok,
I missed your comments. Send me a test mail - vanilango@gmail.com I will send you the excel file to follow the prices.
Hi..Bizagra,
I have some hourly data of about 15 stocks. I do not know of any historical data availability. Let me know if you find any.
Ilango sir, i m a starter. i think that comment was for Satheesh.
Dear Ilango,
ORB is 5275. How you are calculating brake out will be 5283. Please clarify.
Thanks
Ilango sir, as Bizagra said, the reply is for me. Sir do you mind sharing the data? I hope I dont ask too much
Hi..Raj,
Nifty has been coming down in a channel since last 2 days from the high of 5310. See the PreMarket View chart. Now the channel top value for 1.00PM is 5283.
Presently a struggle is on to keep Nifty above "Hour High ema" - 5272.
When do we exit a NF short (initiated at NF 5283.95) ? Do I quit the moment Nifty closes 1 PM above its day high or should I still wait for Nifty to cross resistance of 5283 ?
hi..KKR,
Nifty is still trading in a band of 5250 to 5290 with the range contracting..SO just take 20 points whenever you get. Only on a close below 5246, one should hold shorts.
Typo error in my previous comment:
When do we exit a NF short (initiated at NF 5283.95) ? Do I quit the moment Nifty closes 1 PM above its day high "EMA" or should I still have to wait for Nifty to cross resistance of 5283 ?
sir plz update nifty exele sheet on main page
Dear Ilango,
Nifty is trading above 5EMA, Day HI EMA & HR HI EMA. When we can initiate long? After brake out only?
Ilango:
I am curious about the High/Low EMA calculation. Let me guess, is it an exponential MA of the hourly high and low for the last 6:30 hours of trade during a day....
e.g., If we are at 1 PM now, then the High EMA at 1 PM is the EMA of (2PM yesterday, 3 PM yesterday, 4 PM (??) yesterday, 10 AM today, 11 AM today and 12 AM today).
Is this how the calculation is done ?
Hi..KKR,
It is just like a calculation of last 5 hour averaging but with a mathematical decimal which distributes more weightage to the more recent prices unlike in a simple average which distributes equal weightage. This way you get the actual strength & weakness much earlier.
All the emas are of 5 period. Classic period since long....
hi..U.K.Raj,
Trading above will not be a signal but a close at an hour or day or week is important.
Trading above & below suggest to you the inherent weakness & strength. With experience you might be able to guess whether this time it will be able to close above or below...
sir
please send me the tech file to my id - efkay17@yahoo.com
with regards
Dear Ilango,
Thanks. I am learning lot from you. I will learn more. This is like hands on training.
Regards.
Ilango sir, as per ur tech table, nifty spot at 1PM (5269) closed above hourly 5-EMA (5263), showing some strength. Shall I close my short at say 5270, and go long intraday for some 15-20 points gain? I just want to practically trade like this to gain confidence. thanks.
hi sir, if u track unitech thn can u g m its charts,my email id is manunidhi21@gmail.com
rest hw much importance u gv to $ carried trade..
regards
manu
hi ilango,
pl send excel sheet.
tsrini74@gmail.com
thanks
T. srini
Dear Illango,
Could you update the Tech Chart at the end of the hour asap for people like me who don't have the live data or are unable to compute it themselves. Thanks
Dear Ilango,
hourly close is same as 5 hrs ema i.e. 5264. what does that imply going short? or the trend is neatral?
Dear All,
NIFTY's confusion in direction is very clearly visible in the hourly update. Where day table is all +ve with OB at perfect buy take off zone, hourly contradictes it. Just a close below 5EMA may be the trigger. Or as Ilango judged strong RIL and SBI move can propel it upward. Last time when the channel trading took place, it resulted in a win for bulls. This time ???
Regards,
S Rajagopal
hi..Manu,
I will give you Unitech daily & weekly view.
The view expressed in my "Stockwealth" blog few days back still holds true. You can check it there. I will update today.
Hi..Manojag,
I get busy at times with personal work or my comp. is busy, etc. I try to update within 5 minutes.
I am planning to put it up 5 minutes before the hourly close. That way you can see whether it stays above or below from the terminal yourselves.
Well - thanks to Ilango. I Covered my short @5252.50. Feeling a lot better now. Atleast the week is ending on a good note.
If the US jobs data is awful, then the market might gap down on Mon, but let me worry about that on Monday.
Ilango sir, I have closed my short at 5253 with profit of 26 points. Now I will take a long if nifty spot comes to 5230. thanks.
thanks sir..but didnt find unitech in stock welth blog..rel cap and ril hav really consolidated
Now the struggle will be for 5252 - 3.00PM close to keep away the bears and a daily close below 5246.
Illango,
You are just remarkable.Words fail me.Thanks for all the effort in taking us along and sharing such valuable insights.
manoj
Ilango sir, if conservative traders take a long position near lower level and if closing is below day low ema or 5ema, sud we exit it today only?
Hi..Manu,
You will find unitech here only. I will update tonight.
http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/2009/12/trendlines-most-simple-effective.html
hi..bizagra,
We can initiate it if it comes below 5238..SL will be 5220 for the day.
If uncomfortable as TA looks weakish, we will skip it.
Ilango sir, who ever sold near day's high for last 4 days have gained some points. Do u think nifty has become sell on rise rather than buy on fall?
Hi Ilango,
You are Amazing guy. helping everyone. Thanks a lot for your all guidelines.
Please send the latest tech table to moneyearners@gmail.com
Mahes
Hi..Saravana,
Till the sell signal for "positional" comes, Nifty is presently sell on rise and buy on weakness after having closed below "High ema".
Have updated the tech table 5 minutes in advance. will update again.
I will send the updated one this weekend to those who wanted it in the last 2 days after adjusting for the graph area, etc..
Dear Anandan,
Send back my case of ...
I have a simpler brain - for me all Fridays are -ve closing with Wed and Mon,Tue & Thu are +ve. In the past 2 months all turned topsy turvy.
Proves the often repeated saying "Market is supreme. It can out think us"
Regards,
S Rajagopal
Now stay Long with today's low as SL.
Hi Ilango, I think at 3pm Nifty was at 2546 below 5252 you had mentioned. is this a sign of weakness?
Sir, NS has just reached 5235 and trying to move up! If it is a running correction for bulls this must be a good support level. Am I right?
Ilango sir,
Is this trade positional for conservative traders?
Ilango,
do you suggest Carrying Longs??
Yes..as suggested in the morning post. Carrying longs for conservative trade..
Anyone want to hedge, take a 5200 or 5100 PUT. I do not do hedging at all. It is your wish..
And our S&R should be either 5200 or today's low.
Grt. thks a lot sir
Hi..Janaki,
Let us know what is the likely close for the day.
Ilango sir, as suggested by you in the morning reply to me, I have taken long at 5241 which I hold it for week end. My SL as suggested by you is 5220 nifty spot. Since nifty is trading well above weekly PIVOT level, I am taking this overnight position. Is it ok?
sr,ur view on bank nifty..nw
NS likely close @5244 against Daily 5 EMA of 5247.7. It needs to move up by at least 20+ points in the remaining time to have close above daily 5 EMA. Will it?
Hi..Manu,
Unlike Nifty, Bank Nifty will close below weekly High ema which is weak but will close above 5 day ema. So trading continues with some negative bias. It is not a sell.
Though average close will be below 5246, I will take heart that the actual close is above 5246.
Dear Ilango,
Though market is at your suggested buy level of 5230-40, I was hesitant to go long because two red candles with LH-LL and close below Daily 5EMA, though marginally. I guess the bias is towards downside. I think one can go long if 5220 is held in the opening on Monday!
Hi, Ilango Sir,
If you don't mind please use only one direction for your EW chart.
New comers like me is totally confused (for intraday trade) by ur 3 direction (red, blue & deep blue in hourly chart).
Please consider my request.
Hi Guys,
It is good week, not even single loss trade.. all profitable trade..
We are all small starters & learners..
My suggestion is Take only 1 or 2 lots of Put or call the time..
For the Stock Specific Put and Call.. only look for Liquid counters, & take one or two lots at the time.. don't try to average..
After 20th Becareful on Stock specific Put/Call open positions.. because after that active trades are very less..( lot of people don't go for Stock pecific put/call ),
For PUT / CALL trade.. you will loss 100% of your value... Be careful..
With Guidelines form Mr.Illango.. I think most of the people can get benefited..
Happy Week end.. Thanks. Anandan.R
For Next week..
BUY opportunity : Maruti, InfoSys, BharthiAirtel, SAIL,...
SALE opportunity : Suzlon, DLF, TataSteel, Unitech, Hindalco,
this is as per Technical...
I don't have any positions on the above scrips.. I am just helping to avoid wrong side trade.
Bye, Anandan.R
lol Dear Anandan,
What happened to your call at 11 AM that market will turn GREEN in afternoon and go up?
These are not levels to BUY, how do you justify someone buying infosys when USD will eventually go down after its last leg of bullmove.
How do you justify buying into maruti when other big players have better models and aggressive plans to enter the small segment.
Akash
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