Thursday, December 5, 2013

Nifty's sell on rise made prices come off the highs but EOD signals differently...


113 comments:

venkatapathy l said...

Namaste Ilango Sir.

It is wonderful of you to take care of us even when you are preoccupied with some other more important work.

Thanks and warm regards.

LV

Sandeep said...

Dear Ilango Sir , Is today's 100 gap possible candidate for continuation gap . ..?
I can see "W" bottom on hourly , (double bottom at 6000 & "W" center at 6200 ) , today's gap broke past 6200 "W" center.
Can we say , Nifty is in third wave ( 1st - 5972 -6212 / 2nd 6212 -5973 / 3rd 5973 - targeting 6350 -6450 )..?
Is this reading correct .. pls comment if time permits.

Thanks & regards
Sandeep

Pattern Trading said...

Good evening master and all blogmates...
Yes bank Triangle breakout : Click here

Varadarajulu Venkatesan said...

Dear Master

Thank you very much for your above updates.

Anandan said...

good. buy nifty when 6235 and buy hold unitech SL.15.8

Pattern Trading said...

Good morning master and blogmates

Nifty elliot wave count

click here

Trading For Living! said...

https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=BE7C624779B57552!128&authkey=!AJfQVy5gLPvpRUE&ithint=file%2c.pdf

vk said...

Namaste Guruji.

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rama balaji said...

GM Ilangoji & all Blogmates

Kiran said...

Weekly closing today. 3 Numbers to watch
6153 - Wk EMA - Close below this will add confidence to Sell on rise signals.
6232 - Wk High EMA - Close above this will change Wk signal (Currently sell on rises) and will have to fight with Monthly signals next week(s).
6055 - Wk Low EMA - Close below this will add extra confidence to bears.

D.S.SASAN said...

Good Morning Sir and Dear Friends.

Thanks Seniors for contributing valuable views timely yesterday and expecting the same today.

Social Media Earthworm said...

Yesterday session , i loved it for sure ...such enriching discussion and views .... Master surely has attracted a great followers ..If this continues ... then justnifty will become a living embodiment of Master being carried forward by his illustrious followers

mynac said...

GM Everybody,
If Nifty try to climb up from here itself then, Yesterday's initial good amount of HVT @ 6295 and HVT @ 6330 on Muhurat trading day should be watched very carefully.It would prove good resistance while crossing previous all time high,if Nifty try the same...All in all...Nifty needs fresh buying @ higher level.
Next 3-4 trading days shall be decider.
Bye.

Pattern Trading said...

If weakness has to retur n it should be around 6265-6273 ...

Strength above 6285

Karthikeyan S said...

Good Morning Master and Seniors

shiva said...

good morning, Sir and friends..

mynac said...

Dear Nilesh Deshpande's ATR for the day

Previous close : 6,241.10



Last traded price : 6,251.65

Buy Zone : From 6197.6 to 6175.85

Breakdown below : 6171.5 (stop loss for intraday longs)

Breakdown target : 6121.5

Sell Zone : From 6284.6 to 6306.35

Breakout above : 6310.7 (stop loss for intraday shorts)

Breakout target : 6361.25

Parimal said...

Namaste friends, fresh long below 6300 may be risky since it is the top of hrly negative divergence, for good up move this level should be cleared, it is possible that euphoria of state elections is already factored in. we may see some volatility on Monday after the results are declared. Except infra and metal sectors, there is a serious dearth of fundamental strength to boost the market.

Kiran said...

Both modes on right now (for intraday only). Buy on dips and sell on rise.

Raghavendra said...

Dear All,

10 AM JN TA Techtable snapshot uploaded on JN Group.

Key change is 10 AM closing is above 5 Hour High EMA.

What a sight...complete tech table is green. Need to monitor the prices through the day for any changes.

Raghavendra

sarvesh sharma said...

good morning all,,,
@ shriram , aly
have a look at these wave counts...wave 1 6300-6267
wave 2 6267-6282
wave 3 6282-32
wave 4 6232-51
wave 5 6251-6231
all other fit into fibo's but not the 5th but then can it be a 5th failure for the completion of correction of A of correction??? as it tested and saved previous resistances tooo..the answer we should get with the retracements of 6300-6231
6247 6257 6265 6274 6286 strength above 6274 6286 and should pass 6305 to rule out B

sarvesh sharma said...

weakness returned between 50 and 61.8% of the fall...strength needs to come from 6245-46

Parimal said...

nifty updated at 10.00

Sanjay Jaiswal said...

Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,

OI Table Update at 11:00AM, Pivot-6296, S1-6251, R1-6325, VWAP-6292

The PE writers are back, but addition is limited to 6200 and below strike price, still not much conviction from either the Bulls or the Bears, Range bound day with some activity in the second half…

Thanks & Regards

Aly said...

to me it seems a 3 wave downmove from 6068 completed at 6044 which is also 61.8% of upmove from 6031. weakness only below this level

Prithvi Raulji said...

Master said,

Nifty's sell on rise made prices come off the highs but EOD signals differently...

It means correction pending like wave'C'

shriram said...

GM Master & JN Family,

@ Sarvesh:
If NS takes out 6265 NS (mentioned ysday), wud be inclined to view 6300-6230 as a ZZ complete.

Else , staying < 6265, following count may be explored

a/1 6300 6232 -68
b/2 6232 6268 36 -52.9% * done as XPANDED FLAT
c/3 6268 6200 -68 100.0% (i.e c.opt=a = 6200, c.min = 0.618xa = 6226 , in play down)

Currently this is NO MAN's LAND

have a gr8 day !



sarvesh sharma said...

@ prithvi raulji,,,it means bullishness in technical table has replaced the sell on rises the previous day. Despite grinder being effective for the whole day could not maintain its "sell on rise" status..rest today wkhema will decide ..closes above it, then nothing like it

Aly said...

another irregular B/2 may have formed 6244-6256-6246-6256

Aly said...

pattern effective below 6248 negated above 6256.65

suresh said...

Shriram ji,
which book do u suggest for PRACTICAL
EW

johnrego said...

GOOD MORNING ILANGO SIR & JN FAMILY FRIENDS

shriram said...

@ Suresh:

for Realtime wave counting :
Five Waves to Financial Freedom -> Ramki

Even Better option :
Try to understand Master Ilango's wave-counting wid hawk-eyes ;-)


Kiran said...

Banks and BankNifty is moving. But Nifty stays at place...

m.veerasamy Maruthai said...

Good Morning Blog Mates

veerasamy

nissan deka said...

sarvesh what is the WKHEMA currently ?????

nissan deka said...

BNF testing 80% fibo of the current Rise. Should b weak below and not being able to sustain 78.6%. besides BNF is highly highly OB. do not see it going beyond 11789. The fall of a 1000 points on BNF was from here. sustaining 11789 negates the view

nissan deka said...

Hourly chart on BNF cuming into SUPER OB position. Be careful

sarvesh sharma said...

this is the one that is devolping for the week ending today and hence has its importance today

sarvesh sharma said...

nifty took support exactly here too

Prithvi Raulji said...

Lead Indicator Turning Down rom yesterday,
Also sell on rise on Monthly and weekly
Be careful on long

Raghavendra said...

Dear All,

12 PM JN TA Techtable snapshot uploaded on JN Group.

Key change is 12 AM closing is below 5 Hour High EMA.

Raghavendra

Raghavendra said...

Dear All,

Second day again - Shooting star pattern in development based on 12 PM close prices

Parimal said...

Nifty TA file 12.00 charts updated and posted at google group

Prithvi Raulji said...

Gap should be filled today

bepostive be nagetive said...

yesterday high was 6301
(6343-5972)=371
371*1.618=600
last lower low 5701
5701+600=6301
may be last higher high of this year
most of traders r talking about 64 6500 target fr nifty not fr 54 5500
just a contra view

gs said...

thnks raghavendra thanks parimal for updating tt

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gs said...

we r trading below day pivot....so weakness....imo traders waiting ...too much risk due to event on monday

sarvesh sharma said...

come on,,lets start the journey,, dear nifty...

shriram said...

smelling a superlative bounce, holding Days low

B.o > 6255, tgt: 6280-6300

Sanjay Jaiswal said...

Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,

OI Table Update at 11:00AM, Pivot-6296, S1-6251, R1-6325, VWAP-6289

Perfectly Neutral day as per Option Table with no aggressive writing seen from either parties, its seems like 'LULL BEFORE THE STORM'…

Thanks & Regards

mynac said...

Dear Shriram,
2nd u.
NF O.I.hardly around 2 Cr has plenty of room to rise.
expecting "Naro Wa Kunjaro" candle today @ close..:)

shree said...

Addition in 6400 CE OI.....below pivot....CAM H3 6260 trading below that after hitting...50% retrace yday low 6232 broken...(but i think not on NF...)..current HOURLY close below H5dema.....wekkly HEMA 6232...high probability shows 6215/6208 to touch....lets see..

shriram said...

Namaskar Mynac Rao,

Hou dya kharcha :-)

Kiran said...

Sujata mam, please switch off Nifty grinder...

shree said...

6231 to 6268 = 37 * 80 % = 30 = 6238 hits but holdong above it...this shows opposite of above ..so 6237 breaks then more weakness....

sarvesh sharma said...

ohh everyone looking at same levels of journey...chalo achcha hai,,,just nifty force

ESHAN SINGH said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
prakash said...

Hey ESHAN SINGH...
Successful teaching and knowing how market moves from many years.. Want to know the secret site ..it is http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com

Regards
Prakash

mynac said...

Hou dya kharcha :-)

ani "Mag Charcha Tar Honarach" :)

Saurabh said...

I see a bearish flag in Nifty.. can anyone confirm please..

Also is anyone tracking powergrid.. its behaving very strange with huge discount in futures.. any expert comments ??

chetas said...

Saurabh,

powergrid there is a FPO from government, hence the future price is factoring in the discount

Squander Star said...

@Shriram

looks like your command is accepted..... he he

thanks for the timely update...

Prithvi Raulji said...

ii wave completed @6267 ,we are now in (iii) , a weekly expiry today for punters, so it could take much time, but trend cleary down

Prithvi Raulji said...

6150 may breaking today also Jnsar may Trigger sell today

Raghavendra said...

Dear All,

2 PM JN TA Techtable snapshot uploaded on JN Group.

Key change is 2 PM closing is below 5 Hour High EMA.

Raghavendra

Parimal said...

Nifty TA file 2.00 PM charts updated and posted on googlegroup

Raghavendra said...

@ Saurabh, Chetas,

Interesting article o Powergrid FPO and how folks are playing the FPO issue with Futures. Please read below a detailed explanation.

Source : Another blog.

Powergrid FPO - A special situation everyone knows about
Something which is too obvious and which everyone knows about rarely works in investing. "The crowd is never right" is the gyaan we often hear and experience too.
So when the Powergrid FPO special situation presented itself, the first thing that came to my mind was that this is too obvious, which should be visible to absolutely anybody. So will it work?!

Background

Powergrid has come out with its FPO, priced in a band of Rs.85-90 per share. Retail applicants will get a discount of 5% on the final decided issue price. I am assuming the issue price to be Rs.90 and all calculations are based on the same.
So basically, retail shareholders will be allotted shares @ RS.85.5 per share. As of 5 pm on 12/5/2013, retail applications stood at 4.32 cr shares, against 27.44 cr shares reserved for the category.
The issue is therefore subscribed 0.16 times in the retail category as of now, with tomorrow being the last day for applications.
Even though most retail applications come in on the last day, I feel there is high probability that there will not be any massive over-subscription in the retail category and chances of full allotment are high.
I offer absolutely no view on the company as a business etc. This is merely a play on the situation and not an 'investment' per say.


The situation

Apply for 2200 shares at cutoff price (for retail, it will be max Rs.85.5). Expectation here is that allotment will be full/near full.
Short 1 lot (2000 shares) December 2013 series Powergrid futures @ Rs.92.85. Effectively, you are creating a near 100% hedge and locking in Rs.7.35 profit (by buying at Rs.85.5 and selling at Rs.92.85)
With the issue closing on December 6th, allotment should happen just before December F&O expiry (26th)
On expiry, sell equity shares and cover futures short position (both should be at same/near-same price on expiry, hence we would realise Rs.7.35 profit per share)
The returns here are roughly 8.3% (thats Rs.7.35 on Rs.85.5 invested per share) pre-costs for a 20 day holding period. Not bad!!

Additional points

Ideally, I would have liked to short the January 2014 series futures, but I learnt that January 2014 onwards, the lot size has been changed to 4000 shares, from the present 2000. :-( Hence, one will have to short December series itself, even though it will be a touch and go situation, time-wise.
It seems like the whole world has gotten into this trade, of applying for the FPO/going short on December series futures. Hence, the futures are quoting at a Rs.3.3 discount to the cash market price of Rs.96.15.
The whole trade is of course applicable for only the retail category, making an application under Rs.2 lakhs.

Risks

One big risk here is if the allotment is not full/near full. In that case, the cash-futures position sizes wont match and this would not be an arbitrage trade. Also, if there is part allotment along with a significant rise in the stock price before expiry (worst case scenario), there would be a loss on this trade. (Since futures price would also rise along with cash market price and hence, loss in futures market would be greater than profit in cash market)
Another risk here is if the allotment is delayed beyond December 26th for some reason. In that case, the futures position would expire and we would be left holding only the shares of company, un-hedged.


All in all, its an interesting arb opportunity that makes sense. Point is, it makes sense to everyone, so will everyone earn money in it? Lets see how it plays out.

Raghavendra said...

@ Prithvi Raulji,

Master has advised many times to not get too close to the Market and difficulties in EW labelling in shorter time frames.

From a Day time frame : Despite wavering around the Hour Time frame High - Low EMA's today, there has not been a single hourly close below Day High EMA of 6242 .

You may well be true of JNSAR triggers though - but wanted to share insights on Day price behaviour.

Raghavendra

gs said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Squander Star said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
dharmu mishra said...

dear Raghvendra
thanks for ur timely updated of nifty in the absence of llango sir

dharmu mishra said...

respected shreeram
sir 6155 breakout done sir as u said
what next target sir

Kiran said...

Weekly train started, but needs more petrol....

shriram said...

@ Dharmu:

6242 needs to sustain EOD basis, and ideally 6255 needs to hold, else we may slip back via "C"
to 6220-00




dharmu mishra said...

respected shreeram sir
Thanks

Prithvi Raulji said...

In Monthly It is sell on rise 80-100 point means up to 6320 sell

Kiran said...

Event ahead on week-end. stay cautious with your position. Longs or shorts...

Prithvi Raulji said...

@Kiran,

Event now finished and everybody known that BJP in leads.The event effect was shows yesterday.

Raghavendra said...

Dear All,

3 PM JN TA Techtable snapshot uploaded on JN Group.

3 PM closing is below 5 Hour High EMA, but above Day - Week - Month High EMA's. Not a single hourly close below day high EMA today ( 6242 ).

Raghavendra

satheesh said...

Current week HEMA - 6232
Current Day HEMA - 6242
Current 34 Hr MA - 6222

EOD close below 6230 - weakness would set in.

Aly said...

@shrriram,

does the rise from 6237 look like a DZZ to you?

Kiran said...

4 buyers for every 1 seller in BNF.

Kiran said...

How many times, opinion polls had matched exact results with actuals.

RS said...

@ Kiran,

Single largest party factor has been true 8-9/10 times

Raghavendra said...

Dear All,

Closing above 6262.5, will make a Bullish Engulfing pattern today.

Raghavendra

Amol Sharma said...

how much gap on monday opening guess ,,,,

shriram said...

@ Aly:

Its bullish impulse to simple eyes :-)

gs said...

opinion polls ,exit polls not much accurate in india ...very wide demographics......most exit polls have very less sample size....

sarvesh sharma said...

closes and touches 61.85 retracement of the entire fall from 6300-6230.....week and day both technical bullish,,

dharmu mishra said...

respected shreeram sir
will u pls tell me imp of 6255 level is it resistence line break out

shriram said...

@ Dharmu:

previous 30mins Res / turned Support was 6255 NS.. and in the morn today was the ruff zone of the TL joining Swing Highs of 6300-6268

Have a nice weekend all, bye

Raghavendra said...

@ All,

Today's JN TA File has been posted on the JN Group.

Raghavendra

gs said...

@anmol....master is not here so we can guess ...ha ha ha my guess 50 points

dharmu mishra said...

@ shreeram sir
thanks
hv great week end

Kiran said...

Interesting : Exit polls vs Actual
https://twitter.com/PankajPachauri/status/408200714867851264/photo/1

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