Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Nifty Intraday Update-I


43 comments:

nissan deka said...

Sir does your level of 6212 hold any relevance anymore Sir??? the reason I ask this is because the chart show "" IF SHORT HERE IS FAVOURABLE """"

shree said...

NF..y'days close 6263..current..6245...down 18 points but all CE are down by just 2/3 points....is this strong bullish sign????

Shiv Kumar P P said...

@shree

yesterday when Nifty rallied 40+ points, 6000PE was trading in GREEN... Options are having higher premiums due to the event risk (election results)

Aly said...

@shree,

volatility has expanded big time. even puts are up by 10-15 rs. I think people are waiting for exit poll results on 4th and subsequently election results on 8th december.

shree said...

I take it in different way......there is no long unwinding in CE and buying coming...and same time PE writers are not having confidance of downside immediately so covering.....one has to see latest OI data on hourly basis...I will check it....

shree said...

I tyink sanjayji will comment with authority on this

Prithvi Raulji said...

@Master,

Weekly Crane strategy still valid up to @6270 or taking Time Being it will Cancelled???

nissan deka said...

I agree with u Shree. it is ALL a Question of Demand and supply ONLY. Mrkts will react only in the opposite direction to the scale which is heavier

Aly said...

@shree,

there is hardly any significant writing in the options, hence my view is that people are buying protection against any sudden movement both downside and upside. thats why option premiums are increasing

nissan deka said...

guys any idea if Illango Sirs figure of 6212 NS has any relevance now??? as he has indicated that "" IF SHORT HERE IS FAVOURABLE"""

shree said...

One question....I get surprise when one says option are with high premium...you go with every series.......at opening options are with high premium...is there any parameter to decide whether it is high premium or low premium....options price get impact of earlier series last week's trend and with that last weeks direction related options premium get higher and opposite side options get lower cost...this is simple maths and stats in this topic....

to say options are with high premium has anybody kept data and studied of last 10/20 series and have established any relation to premuim and events etc....i think its only demand supply and trend which decides this all upto 3rd week of series and then time decay fast....

any opinion?? this is not with reference to any above comment..but personal observation and opinion....

kat said...

Good morning Ilango Sir and all the Blog mates!

sarvesh sharma said...

@nissan..thats for JNSAR not for any particular number

Sanjay Jaiswal said...

Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,

OI Table Update at 11:00AM, Pivot-6251, S1-6228, R1-6287, VWAP-6244

Consolidation after the huge up-move seen in the last 2 sessions, VIX gaining strength could see a huge move in the next few days…

Thanks & Regards

VRJ rammanohar said...

BELOW 6221 SPOT NIFTY CAN TEST 6160

shree said...

@ sanjay...
will you comment on above topic regarding OPTION

Piyush Sharda said...

@shree when vix increases options premium increases .

shree said...

ya piyush..but ultimately what reflects VIX???

shree said...

If VIX shot up then fear it reflects fear

shree said...

UPDATES......BNF open and high was the same ...now high breaks.....bullish.....

Piyush Sharda said...

@shree,

havent read definition of vix in detail

shree said...

NF and BNF not sustaining above y'days close......if sustain then fireworks

Kiran said...

NS can touch 6246 Today.

Aly said...

@shree,

VIX is actually calculated the other way round i.e. based on the prices of out of money calls and puts. so if people are ready to pay more price than what is considered normal, then we say that VIX has increased. A rise in Vix is typically said to imply impending downturn however that is not the case. This just means that people are not comfortable in taking naked position in one side and want to hedge their position and pay more premium for buying that protection

With regards to option premium, an off the hand computation is that any ATM option at the start of expiry is typically priced to lose around 5 bucks per day till expiry week and 10 bucks per day in the expiry week. If we have say 22 days till expiry then the ATM option would be priced roughly (18X5=90)+(10X4=40) at 130 bucks. (this is assuming the future price not the actual strike price of the instrument). So if nifty future is at 6200 and we have around 22 days to expiry then 6200 Put and call would be priced at Rs. 130 each. this is just rough cut can vary on other factors

D.S.SASAN said...

Good Morning Sir and friends

shree said...

@ ALY.....
So if nifty future is at 6200 and we have around 22 days to expiry then 6200 Put and call would be priced at Rs. 130 each

how both instruments canbe at same price???? its not practical..and here exactly we get the clue fo direction I think

shree said...

NF and BNF not sustaining above y'days close......if sustain then fireworks ..IF not then new low today????

Aly said...

@shree,

and why wouldnot both the instrument be at same value? remember, market is supposed to be neutral. so if the markets end at 6200 at expiry then both call and put have to expire worthless. Why would market favour any particular position?

herry said...

dear sir yesterday higher high 6225.50 and today 6225.40....?
iregular B done and start for wave C....?

shree said...

@ Aly
India VIX is computed using mainly the quotes of the OTM options.

shree said...

@ Aly..
agree thats why said here we get clue of dire3ction....

Aly said...

@shree

also please understand that in case of the options, the prices are typically determined by the sellers not the buyers. And the sophisticated investors who write options hedge their positions. hence to them it doesnot matter which direction markets are going to take. It is only speculators who take positions without full hegding them and if there are large number of speculators inclined towards one side of market then market may see movement in that side but if due to some circumstance, if market starts moving in opposite direction then these speculators run for cover and market may move strongly in other direction

Also remember, in market positions are created on both side. A long contract means someone has definitely entered into a short contract. Only difference is who is hedged and who is not

VRJ rammanohar said...

A DIP TO 6160 IS IMMINENT HIGH RANGE RES. AT 6221 N 6245

Aly said...

Dear sir,

is the upward trending channel trendline broken to the downside?

shree said...

NF 6223 to 6264 = 41 * 38% =16....62467 done

umesh karadi said...

its vix that is making high valuation of call and puts. hence it is not advisable to trade in call/puts
we cannot expect good retuns even if nifty swing by 100pts after a week

SKS said...

Whats the JNSAR rate?? reveresed?? are we in short??

SKS said...

updates on JNSAR please

shree said...

NF and BNF not sustaining above y'days close......if sustain then fireworks ..IF not then new low today????

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

Options options options....the only option is to avoid options unless u are technically very well versed in the Greek and Latin of options. In the year of the lord 2005, I had a very very distasteful and foolish date with options and I have never looked back since.

The only Option is a good tested system or JNSAR system....:):):)
Part booking time....Yawwwwwwwwwwwn day today.

nissan deka said...

guys b careful on BNS. I had stated yesterday that BNF was highly highly OVERBOUGHT. please have a GOOD LOOK at the BNS formations of today. seems 2 me that we r headed towards 11070. it virtually seems like a BIG HNS formation 2 me

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