Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Nifty gets overbought in the ST @ channel top with a weak hour but a firm day TA.


16 comments:

charan prasad said...

sir MACD chart is missing you put Nifty Day and 9-Rsi chart twice

NI3 said...

dear ilango.. sir where e I can find eod charts for stocks ? Suppose I want to search for ril eod to check levels for tomorrow
thanks a lot

Ilango said...

@ NI3,

http://www.icharts.in/charts.html

shriram said...

ilango ji,

Can u pls put up separate strategies for Intra & Swing trades, for Hi probability win ratios

I had a big learning today & wud be most grateful if u cud formalise in a write up sir

tks

NI3 said...

Thanks a ton!!!
sir I will check it

SANPOT said...

Ilango Sir, I want to buy intra-day software at a reasonable cost. I am using Metastock EOD software by downloading Nifty Bhavcopy. Pl guide.
Thanks in advance.

SJkolkata said...

Sanjay Sir/Master,
With due respect to all, I would like to state that I have been following the options table since the time the options markets were immature in India cause of my qualification of being a CFA(1994). I have seen for the first time in history the markets moving in last 7 days in the direction of OI increase.
I have been trying to find the reasons for the same for last few days and found that there is a good arbitrage oppurtunity in NSE options vis-à-vis SGX option which was introduced last month only. Secondly everyone should be aware that all broking houses due to lack of business have floated special schemes of semi-guaranteed returns for HNIs for options selling strategies. What I feel that now the bigger and powerful hands are on buying side due to arbitrage and retail(HNI) are on selling side which is giving a mismatch picture on options for the first time. To add I can vouch for a big broking house(name withheld) incurring good losses and shifting positions on calls since 5300 levels cause the mandate of scheme says to sells call-put of 5% above CMP on clearing day. The scheme manager has shifted thrice the positions in last 3 days and booked good losses in client accounts. Cause the base of their scheme says that the nifty makes a move more than 5% in a month only for less than 8% (in last 10yrs) that too in the first 2 weeks of expiry.
Again to add the IVs of the options were at their lowest for this month cause of VIX at lowest levels making buying of optionss moreover lucrative.
Just a thought to add, with noone to oppose cause I feel Master always welcomes unbiased opinion.
Comments and expert opinion expected.
Regards

shriram said...

Dear SJK ji,

its a wonderful angle on options OI ... & may be true..

Wot about OI increase in Futurz tho ? How can one explain that ?

H2O said...

Thank you SJK for your insight analysis!

shriram said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
SJkolkata said...

Shriram,
Certain % is arbitrage cause again for the first time last month onwards the SGX have started trading at a premium or discount to NSE. Anyone can check last month it was at discount and everyone knows what happened, this month it has been on premium.
Let's see what's in store.

Jayaraman said...

SJKOLKATA ji,
Thanks for useful OI analysis. Since my Wave count is tallying with your analysis I am sharing my view as follows and possibly this clarifies FII’s purchase of NF as observed by Shriram ji:

Considering the terminal impulse of the move from 4770 to 5349 as Wave 1 (ABC) and 5349 to 5033 as Wave 2 the appropriate count for Wave 3 ( ABC) could be as follows:

Wave A = 5033 – 5246 = 213 pts
Wave B = 5246 – 5165 = 81 pts
Wave C = 5165 + Wave A ( 213 pts ) = 5378

The above count appear to be most appropriate hence I am of the opinion the terminal impulse is under play and 5378 is the terminal point of Wave 3. The move from 5378 to today’s low of 5331 is likely to be part of A of Wave 4. In case market forms an Irregular Flat market may go up by 10 to 15 pts above 5378.

If the above understanding is correct Wave 4 is likely to terminate before 24th of Aug.2012 and possibly on or after 17th Aug.2012. After completion of Wave 4, Wave 5 will unfold and its possible target could be in range of 5378 - 5460 and in rare case it can go to the maximum of 344 pts from terminal point of Wave 4, may be near about 5600.

The above may explain the reason for addition of NF by FII’s.

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