Thursday, July 29, 2010

Nifty PreMarket View.

I'll start with a lesson and end it with a small advice.
EW baby step #1: If you watch a baby trying to walk, you'll notice the determination and "never give up attitude" and above all "one pointed mind" and it finally makes it. I suggest here to simply to count the impulsive waves(trending up or down) only initially. You need not base your trading on it but look at the marvel unfolding. Elliott generally ignores the topping and basing waves if they are choppy but mostly they all fit in the final analysis. This basic counting of 1,2,3,4,5 of an upmove unfolding or a downmove(this could be either 3 or 5). In the chart below, I have labelled 1, 2 and the 3rd is on with sub dividing waves(Most often the 3rd wave sub divides) and when I spotted the "iii" nearing an end, I suggested yesterday that it may trade the remaining day in "5385 to 5415" based on the closer supports and the sub wave 4th of that "iii". Each wave sub divides into 5 in an impulsive mode and during gap downs & ups, they may not be visible.

I have been literally developing TA from the scratch by reading a book and developing the formulae myself and doing it all on paper & graph paper for many years before moving to computer with great relief.(Imagine calculating ema, rsi, roc, etc everyday for 5 to 8 scrips). Though this "hands on" helped to feel the market, I would often fail following just the indicator and the TA worked differently at different set ups/ instances.
Though I had a small 6 page write up on EW for many years with me, I never ventured into it fearing it to be "complex". I realised it too late that it is only my misplaced perception. Once I read those 6 pages, I searched and got this book by "Robert Beckman" on EW and read it non stop and my TA application started to improve and after an initial success, the obsession took its toll now & then and I took few steps back to put it all together and then it made sense in the whole comprehensive package.
In the final analysis, EW has helped me like a "Compass" to navigate through the mystical waves of market movements.
Nothing was ever achieved without many setbacks. How many brilliant cricketers and footballers you come across regularly. A "Pat Cash" of Tennis who trounced Boris Becker in Wimbledon simply disappeared. Why..? You can achieve success with hard work. Any one..I stress it here..anyone can achieve success. But a lasting success..a consistent performance of the likes of Sachin, Federer, Einstein & many more is possible only with "One Pointed Discipline with persistent perseverence".
A small advice to new visitors: You may copy all you want, you may even get some instant fame but if you have any conscience left, that will take care of you.
Pinky, take Mynac's advice in the right spirit. He simply pointed out "Why skip the credits" but you chose to delete the entire post. Why..?
Most lasting change started in my life when I read "Experiment with Truth" by M.K.Gandhi when I was only 15 and was acting like a "Pokkiri".


Update on AD Line chart: Broke the trendline few days ago and re-entered -ve zone yesterday.

42 comments:

golfdude said...

@ilango sir,

Well put. I have taken the first steps in EW. And identification of the subwaves has been very tricky. Obviously identifying after the fact, seems easier. But EW really needs a few sessions hands on teaching to use it with confidence. ( Giving you a hint to conduct EW classes :) ).

Thanks

Ghanashyam said...

Hey Dude, nice Idea, why dont we hold it on Yahoo conference to make it an interactive one, we have done similar exercises on VFM some 2 years back.
I am regular reader and fan of Ilango and recommend many of my friends those who have day time access to market blogs
GG ( from VFM)

Prabakar said...

Dear Ilango Sir,

Good Morning.

As a newbie i too agree with Golfdude, if there is a possibility, i also would like to attend a hands on.

Thanks.

mo h said...

every sentence, every context well-said ... :)
every word, all the intention well-meant ...

assortZ said...

Gm sir.. // One Pointed Discipline with persistent perseverence // - we are trying hard with you..

Unknown said...

Dear Illango Sir ,

Good Morning the way you have presented an age old relation with EW and your past life in so simple words shows what you are i am a silent follower of yours ...The last para is Heart touching Even same happened with me
Why..?
Most lasting change started in my life when I read "Experiment with Truth" by M.K.Gandhi when I was only 15 and acting like a "Pokkiri"......

The only thing we differ is MK Gandhi changed your way Swami Vivekananda Changed my way

Unknown said...

GM Sir and all,

Bollinger band levels

Period BBLower EMA BBUpper
3 5388 5413 5443
5 5391 5414 5464
8 5358 5408 5464
13 5354 5392 5451
21 5218 5362 5492

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZU53ckHTvwo/TFA48RlojDI/AAAAAAAAA3E/Lu4-kSV1cBc/s1600/bbdaily.png

Ilango said...

@ golfdude & all,

My best wishes for a steady walk.

I have updated the "AD Line" chart(Advance/ Decline) showing underlying weakness.

San said...

Good morning sir and everyone

Nifty has broken the raising wedge in daily chart. But the confirmation of a short trade may come only if nifty breaks 5350. I have updated nifty chart showing support at 5350.

Thank you

wormwood34 said...

gm ilango and all....

r m said...

Good Morning all!
Thanks for the motivating words Sir!

manojag said...

Interesting read from IDBI PAISA BUILDER.watch out for 5435 nf
Supports are placed around 5368 and if that is lost on closing basis, then bulls should retreat.
Until then one can still look to buy a dip for day trades. Alternatively, a test of
the trendline (now a resistance) around 5430 or higher that fails could be another
confirmation (and a better one) of future intent to decline. Regaining
above the trendline immediately would restore the bullish nature to the trends.
best to all

wealth creator said...

gm all

ravi said...

ilango, what's the meaning of bpp in the techchart..... sl 5445 (bpp @ 5375)

sryasdmurali said...

Good Morning Elango Sir and All

Have a nice profitable trading today

Rajagopal said...

Good Morning Sir and Friends.
===
Results today:

SAIL - GOOD
ULTRATECH-BAD
PATNI-BAD
ONGC-BAD
TATAGLOBAL-Good.

(Just what I know).

r m said...

@Ravi
BPP = book partial profit
:)

satheesh said...

Good morning Ilango sir and all,


Engalai Kai pidithu ovvoru adiyaaga alzhaithu sella vantha guruvae - nandri, vandhanam!!!

ravi said...

thanks rm

Rajagopal said...

Aban offshore said it received a letter of intent for deploying a jack-up rig Aban VII offshore India for a 3 firm wells plus 1 optional well programme. The estimated revenues from the firm period of deployment, with an estimated duration of 120 days, is $10.5 million, or Rs 50 crore. The deployment is likely to commence during December 2010

Neha said...

GM All

Neha said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Janak said...

GM everyone. Ilango Sir - inspiring words - thnx.
RG - thnx reg. ABAN, do SAIL, ABAN look good for intraday buy?

Rajagopal said...

Janak - Try TataGlobal-pick up near day low. May kiss 121+ today.(1 lot 2500 shares).
(I am biased on Aban. Will always say GOOD).

Neha said...

Sir,

I believe you have taken the 5th wave to have ended at 5465.60...am I correct
in thinking so???

Hemant said...

@ RJ
Jago re ... jago re .... jago re.....
Aaj se khilana band... kareed na chalu... TataGlobal

Ilango said...

@ RajaGopal,

Congrats to you on the Aban-900.

@ Neha,

4786 to (5453)5478 - Five waves completed. If it is a small correction, it should end above 5300. A bigger correction around 5200.

So far, it is impulsing down. It may be in its "iv" of 3rd. If it stops around 5350,(3/C),a short term bounce may be seen.

Anonymous said...

Dear ILango!

After ur morning thoughts i m less interested in trading & my hunger for intellectual thoughts have increased, Thanx for ur lovely & genuine thoughts. One gentleman well said & i like those so sharing here. "Values provide a framework for living. They make it possible to weigh options and make decisions you won't regret. When you make choices that are aligned with your values, you build your character and self-worth. When you compromise your values, you're living a lie. The stronger your values, the more stable and secure you will be."

Rgrds,

KUMAR

u.k.Raj said...

Good Morning ALL

"Watch people do their most common actions; these are indeed the things that will tell you the real character of a great person." - Swami Vivekananda

manojag said...

If its the 4th of 3rd going on since 2.30pm yesterday than its a very weak 4th in the sense that the 3rd is roughly 45 pts down and 4th has corrected only 10 pts or so i.e.23%. If 5th down starts from here it could be 100% or 161.8% of Ist which was around 60 points.

Rajagopal said...

Thank you Sir.
===

Feel the downgrading news related hammering of RIL provides great opportunity to accumulate RIL. If there is a dip to sub 1000 -

Remember the Most hammered Bharti also seeing sunshine. Why not RIL. May be the next party is on Bade Bhai !!!

Anonymous said...

GM.. ilango sir and all..

fro todays morning their is huge buyers in RIL counter.
plse can anyone explain whether it will go with nifty or going alone?...

plse any one explain

manojag said...

@RG,
Would also look for the longer term trend of the larger market. As Ilango was pointing out a couple of days back if the larger 'C ' starts than we could see some serious downsides whenever that happens. So pl keep that in mind before buying any stocks and be aware of the larger trend always.

Neha said...

Thank You Sir for the clarification

INDITRADER said...

Gm Illango Sir & all
Since morning Nf strugling between 5390-5400
A break out can provide some trade oportunity?

sea said...

gm sir
from june 2010 expiry till
fii buying- 9000 cr.
selling- 1300 cr.
today nifty above 73 point from last expiry
what is the thinking of fii ??????
pls reply

Rajagopal said...

Dear Manoj - 100% with you. Just wanted to clarify exactly on your line. Thanks. (I mentioned sub1000 level - may be Sirs words got into my mind !!!)

Neha said...

The hourly charts on quote.com show 5478 as the high n the charts on google finance
show the high at 5475.9...can get confusing at times...

Anonymous said...

Dear @MG!

RIL,SBI,ONGC,INFY,TCS...these are big stocks & Big hands use for Index management. Those who sold yesterday, today they may buy partially & may sell again at high if needed for Index management. Its better to take a view of delivery % and its highest of last 2 months so view is bearish upto when its not closing yesterday's high which is nearly 1070.

Rgrds,

KUMAR

Ilango said...

NEW POST DONE.

Rajagopal said...

Observe : HCL,SUNPHARMA,DFC,TATACOMM.

Hi PS : GM.

Pamod Baviskar said...

100% sure stock and f&o tips by sms!

dalalstreetwinners

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