The fall had a "5 sub waves" which could be either a part of a zigzag meaning "5453 to 5358(95); 5402-95= 5307 target OR part of a larger correction to the entire upmove from 4786 to 5453 whose retracement is shown in the Tech table below.
Above the "Stochastics" indicated the reversal and below the "Macd" indicated the clear negative divergence play. Indicators indicate but not every day and when they do, ignore at your own peril.
Weekly chart shows 3 clear supports and the same may be coupled with the studies above.
A weak bounce to a sharp fall. 5300-5310 is the immediate support below which is 5200.
Breadth has been poor all through and it is at a critical juncture. It dipped below "0" during the "4786" lows and has bounced back into +ve zone. A revisit will have sustained bearishness.
1/3rd sells by aggressive traders and part booking should keep you comfortable with the Tech table. "Fast rising supports" makes it easier for bears to press it into "Bear zone".
Now we await market's reaction to the worldwide cues but act with the weight of evidence presented by the "Market's Price(EW/TA) & Volume(Breadth) as above".***************************************************************
We have had many structural changes in the market place. Badla was banned. Physical shares gave way to demat shares. NSE was born and nearly ended BSE and small exchanges. Derivative market took depth and width. FIIs, hedge funds moved in. Singapore Nifty commenced. Nasdaq, New York exchnges allowed Indian Stocks listing. Now 23 hours trading.
Somebody show me a chart showing how they affected our stocks and index trading.
I did not feel a pinch. Any system is operated by humans and the software is developed by humans only. They may trade faster than you & me.
But believe me ...there is always "Something" for "You & Me" on the table. Claim it by continuing to believe in your work. You are ahead of all of them. There is one Warren Buffett..One Jesse Livermoore. All individuals.
11 comments:
Ilango sir plz guide us who dont hav any position.
Sud we go long or short on monday?
Thanks
yes, thats more downtoearth reality. Any new system created a miniwave but settled down.
And, so far nothing has made it improbable.
Thanks sir.
...there is always "Something" for "You & Me" on the table. Claim it by continuing to believe in your work....
thanks ilango sir...
Sir,
That's you. I grasped only the "last paragraph".
Thank you very much for your guidance.
Regards
Hungary may help the cause of the bears.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-hungary-risks-markets-goodwill-with-imf-eu-failure-reuters_molt-f9a160948066.html
The 5th wave ended at 5453 and thereafter we had an down impulse of 5 waves in the 5 mins time frame. The downward impulse was of 11 hourly bars and the damage to the Nifty was 95 pts. Thereafter a corrective abc has most probably ended at 5401 i.e. it has corrected just around 45% of the fall and has done it in equal number of hours. Now if we trade consistently below 5374 the low of b within abc corrective than Nifty would easily break the lows of the impulse i.e. 5358 and the likely targets would be 100%,161% 261% of the impulse wave of 95 pts i.e a target of 5306,5248 and 5153.This view would get negated if we trade above 5401 as than the abc correction would still be on.
best to all in the coming week.
both indices are in bullish mode. its for sure upmove
still to continue. nifty stayed above 5374 which is bullish sign.
same with sensex. hovering around 18000. in my opinion
both indices are in breakout mood. only worry is monsoon.
mainly banking sector will be in the drivers seat.
wishing a happy week ahead.
Dear Ilango,
Your last para has given us the most needed,required confidence and has it's importance because this is from "YOU" who is"Breathing the market since 1992"
@ sir
Very nice Weekend Articles. Really touches one's insight.
About the markets, weakness is obvious initially due to US markets.
Can you list Bullish Possibilities , so that we can decision in neutral environment.
Finally, I got to read a sensible note reg. NIFTY trading for 23 hours.....courtesy, this link: http://www.sudarshanonline.com/2010/07/american-shadows.html
Sunday, July 18, 2010
American Shadows
All of a sudden, we seem to get strongly attached to U.S. influences.
First, the S&P500 fell almost 2.5% on Friday, about 26 points (Dow fell 260+ points). This will have some influence on india, on Monday.
Second, There is a news item in the Times of india, confirmed by the CME website - http://www.cmegroup.com/ (check out the Equity Index menu option), that Nifty futures will begin trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) from Monday, July 19, 2010 (that's tomorrow). This will give an unfair advatnage to traders who can trade on all three exchanges (NSE, SGX - Singapore, Chicago), since they can take or reduce positions almost 22 hours every day. Indian traders will be at a disadvantage since we cannot, open derivative trading accounts aborad (As per RBI rules). So, we have to trade only in India, while a foreign trader can keep on adjusting positions, if needed, in india, then in Chicago, then Singapore.
Chances are, the NSE will begin trading in Nifty futures till 11:55 PM. If this does not happen, then Indian traders will have to almost give up trading in derivatives.
If this 23 hr trading starts today, there's no 'eod' at all. I wonder how analysts will work for data.
As it currently stands giving the edge to foreign traders, its very unfair to us. But if you look at it another way, from the biggie FII point of view, it must have been unfair to them all along to have to trade just for a few hours at odd times for the amount they invested in India.:)
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