yes sir i noticed that fast fall may set up when nifty going up to level 5265-5270 so i ask u for sell nifty i have notice 2 factore 1) 5300 oi huge & 2) fast fall ma set up regards, alpesh
In uptrend, the short term averages(5sma) trends above a medium term average(20sma)and when a correction sets in, the 5sma will turn down and moves towards 20sma. When the correction ends and if the 5sma comes closer to 20sma and turns up without breaching it - that would be a fast rise set up.
1. On 25-05-10, formed Inside day pattern, this candle started Wave-1. 2. On 09-06-10, formed Inside Day pattern accompanied with Inverted Hammer candle, this started Wave-3. 3. On 22-06-10, formed Inside Day pattern, this also started Wave-4. 4. On 01-07-10, (today) formed Inside Day pattern, this may lead to start of Wave-5.
If there is slight positive sentement in Global cues, we may start 5 th wave. It is better to avoid shorts at this time because 5th wave is also as powerfull as 3 rd wave (But, if we observe Nifty OI call writings we will be tempted to short).
Ilango Sir, Is it right time to go Long for positional trade.
5300 CE wriiten aggrssively. No change in scenario. Puts see no writing almost. Chances of markets breaking down outweighs than otherwise, atleast for nest two days.
significant changes are in 5300CE..adding 30% more today..total 56L..besides heavy writing in 5400 and 5500 CE..total 72L each.. 5200 PE is the big support..86L..
shorted at bank nifty at cmp ....stop 9550 June 30, 2010 3:28 PM ************************************ book profits at CMP @ilango Hope you and Manu have left some mo(n)k after yesterday's party (wishful thinking!) I need one today :))
As long as 5200PE unwinding doesn't happen....no indication of downfall. 86lacs of OI at d moment. Whereas on 5300 level difference of just 7 lacs b/w 5300CE/PE...may reduce by the time we close.
I maintain my previous view....any fall to 5200(if any) is good buying opportunity.
OI data as off now suggests, still bears have not taken the driver seat..
5200 put holds highest base, and PCR stands at 2.67, only thing for bulls concern is almost 85 lacs total OI, but change in OI on positive side is only 4 lacs, so we can say positional writers are stll holding their put positions..
5300 pcr is 0.87, if it decreases then only it can show sign of breaking out..towards downside..
@Ilango "Pots" He is another example of a "cracked pot" I will some day create a system as well will call it "Profit Only Trading in Index" In short "POTI"...:))
@manu bhai How do you trek with over dose of mo(n)k Are you sure you had thrown a stone to measure the depth and not your shoe! Check the baggage and confirm
sorry sir...was away in a team lunch as our global head had come !
OI.....importantly, 5200 PE is carrying huge total OI and with a significant addition of 3 lacs. seems to ratify your strong point of 5210 ! and...all of 5300, 5400 and 5500 seeing stredy build up of OI indicating very narry range for the immediate coming days.....5300 saw a massive addtion today of 10 lacs.
I am so confused on market direction after today. After initial fall, market showed lot of strength at 5240. But FIIs are net short. And 5200 OI shows support for 5200. But 5300 changed today and shows resistance. So looking for direction. I am still long from yesterday but confused on where this market wants to go.
Dear Dinesh Rishi - Ilango is a teacher at the MBA colleage - his desire is to ensure that all his students become businessmen (finalize a method of trading and go fulltime) - however the easy way is to join a multinational company with big paycheck (looking for tips from other people) - Congratulations for jumping from the plane in 2008 and becoming a professional trader - My very best wishes to you - regards Deepak
Dear ka, Thanks,but 3 lac addition in 5200 PE can not be called significant.On the contrary today 5300 CE was written firmly.Intraday 25 % addition was there when market players are expecting break out on upper side with the strong support at 5200 due to significant PE writing at 5200. Intraday addition of 25.50 lac O.I. in NF is also threatening part because if the overnight and tomorrow morning market clues shall be negative then again like today, a gap down opening threat will be there and it will be a serious headache for Bulls.The intraday range for Nf was 5275-5231,just 44 points means for every 2 points there is a addition of 1 lac plus O.I. in NF. The EOD Bhav copy will be interesting today for O.I.purpose.So all n all very tough to decide and play, up to either side break out,so let us see tomorrow.Thanks.
Dear golfdude, Not only you but we are also confused.As you might be intra as well as positional player so due to holding you are and should be worried.And it is but natural.I am sure you will handle the situation calmly and bravely.All the Best.Cheers.
since we vehemently follow Ilango sir and thereby his dictum (EW!), we seem to have missed the most important thing on which EW is premised !!!
That EW, and thereby market, is a graphical depiction of human activity while dealing with THE MOST IMPORTANT thing in this world - MONEY. And as we bore wave pattern in our activity-thoughts, so also some lull periods in day to day life in which we dont know what next ! this is very usual, right ! so is this market activity. the whole of the equities is lull now without a clue to proceed surrounded by problems...but definitely India and asia is itching to go up ! only, a small postive trigger to eject us to next level of activity.
see such days in that perspective....nobody, not even fii's will have a say...they would also be in such mooods.
Hi Mynac...how are you ! your inputs are always dear to everyone actually !!
mynac, the word significant assumes importantance b/c that strike is carrying high OI, besides inspite of uncertanities persisting all around there are that much number of people ( or contracts !!) taking supportive positions at almost ATM price. so, significant is their thought and their strategy.
I have lot of rspect for Ilango and you have twisted the facts and stated what is convenient to you.You have not produced the context in which it was said which already expressed so many times in this forum . That is the differnce in which I approach the markets and I stand by that. People can express their opinion and I was highlighting the risk of FNO. I already know youor IP address and next time you do this you will be behind bars. As of now, I have a strong legal case against you for producing my content without my permission.
Your post has created lot of ill-feeling and in future refrian from doing this. We will always have issue based fights
73 comments:
5300 CE is being written so aggressively . Now it's 30% plus addition of more than 13L options. Amazing. Are we going for very rough ride ahead????
@ alpesh,
For intraday trading, use your knowledge of OI writing, intra chart TA positioning and the day's range to trade better.
Dear All!
Nifty making saucer type bottoming pattern on intra day chart, if maintains then may be highly bullish in closing.
Rgrds,
KUMAR
Well i think Ilango Sir has put his thoughts on OI
2.30 factor started?
Any one noticed the fast fall set up..???
Trader - + RG went LONG.
yes sir i noticed fast fall setup.and i went short @ 5265 nf.
I did and I told myself "please play it out". I am holding a short from morning for no gain/no loss.
But Mr 2.30 Thursday + ? Come near -40 Mr Nifty.
yes sir i noticed that fast fall may set up when
nifty going up to level 5265-5270 so i ask u for sell
nifty i have notice 2 factore 1) 5300 oi huge & 2)
fast fall ma set up
regards,
alpesh
no traces of aggressive put writing yet in 5300 , while call writing is done in herds today.
This set up is in the 5-min time frame. If it does not continue fall after a brief pause, exit.
Keep a S&R 5260.
Factors for Short:
1. Broken Channel second time
2. Retest of Channel failed
For Longs:
1. 14Hr RSI divergence
2. 5240 providing support
3. Faster retracement on hourly chart.
Game Tied :)
Illango sir could u elaborate after market hours about fast fal
l and fast rise setups. Thanks.
@ jay shah
this is what illago sir wrote few days back.
In uptrend, the short term averages(5sma) trends above a medium term average(20sma)and when a correction sets in, the 5sma will turn down and moves towards 20sma. When the correction ends and if the 5sma comes closer to 20sma and turns up without breaching it - that would be a fast rise set up.
Opposite of that would be "fast fall".
I will be updating the Rsi Chart along with TT at 3.00PM. The break out fizzles out as of now.
Well, it still looks like it has some juice left. Maybe upto pp.
thanks rajnish kumar
NF hits 5260
@ yoda
PP???
sir
tisco is a difficult stock to track..
nw it doesnt seem 2 be a parameter to nifty
and RIL luks replacing it
PP= Papu pager?
"Simple Excel Sheet" says:
UP
Scrip Name Up Target
GRASIM 1902.26
HLL 276.30
IDEA 61.05
ITC 307.32
NALCO 437.54
NTPC 202.65
REL 1233.17
SUZENER 58.85
TATAPOW 1328.98
Down
Scrip Name Low Target
ABB 839.60
ACC 851.53
AXISBANK 1206.03
BHEL 2396.54
CAIRN 290.70
CIPLA 331.38
DLF 277.36
GAIL 462.25
GUJAMBUJA 111.83
HDFC 2867.62
HDFCBANK 1883.52
HEROHONDA 1991.71
ICICIBANK 824.85
INFOSYS 2722.06
M&M 603.12
RELCAP 732.05
SAIL 185.28
SBI 2225.14
SIEMENS 706.98
STERLITE 159.20
TATAMOTORS 745.35
TCSCONS 715.80
TISCO 462.60
UNITECH 70.89
WIPRO 366.94
Hai everyone
EUR/USD forming a bullish pattern
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/07/eurusd-is-forming-bullish-pattern.html
Thank you
hi sir now this condition whats do u think
now continue running the 4 th wave or we
should going on way of 5 th wave ?
plz clear ?
regards,
alpesh
At 5266, NS has retraced exactly 38.2% of the last fall from 5320 to 5232. If fails to cross this level, it would show the strength of the bears.
pivot point, I meant, satheesh. ... up to 5282. I'm hoping.:)
@ alpesh,
Market has not shown any confirmations. "GG" has put it well earlier.
Hold light positions. If needed , hedge.
Let us also see the next 15 min action, if any.
Nifty is behaving like a girl. "Kabhi Haan Kabhi Na"
Open Interest experts may throw some light here, if you find any meaningful changes taking place.
My observations:
Four resons for the start of 5 th wave:
1. On 25-05-10, formed Inside day pattern, this candle started Wave-1.
2. On 09-06-10, formed Inside Day pattern accompanied with Inverted Hammer candle, this started Wave-3.
3. On 22-06-10, formed Inside Day pattern, this also started Wave-4.
4. On 01-07-10, (today) formed Inside Day pattern, this may lead to start of Wave-5.
If there is slight positive sentement in Global cues, we may start 5 th wave.
It is better to avoid shorts at this time because 5th wave is also as powerfull as 3 rd wave
(But, if we observe Nifty OI call writings we will be tempted to short).
Ilango Sir,
Is it right time to go Long for positional trade.
San,
Excellent observation.
viren gives range 5225-5367..
says ignore 5300(just intra)..upon oi
Thanks FIRE
5300 CE wriiten aggrssively. No change in scenario. Puts see no writing almost. Chances of markets breaking down outweighs than otherwise, atleast for nest two days.
San, Cup-with-handle works best when the right side is above the left side
and the handle should not retrace more than 50% of the cup.
US markets had enough of RED, today it should end in GREEN - i m buying NF :-) come what may....
"Dinesh Rishi" jas developed "Profit Only Trading System", calling it "POTS".
Those who are interested may send a "Test mail" to him to get it.
dineshrishi@gmail.com
plz sir give suggesition
can i buy bank nifty at this level?
alpesh
what has happened to NIFTY? it has taken a halt at 5250, as if it is a JUNCTION for a superfast train :-0
significant changes are in 5300CE..adding 30% more today..total 56L..besides heavy writing in 5400 and 5500 CE..total 72L each..
5200 PE is the big support..86L..
@ Ravi,
A very good detailed analysis.
One can go long with some hedging.
ho ho ho.....tremendous buying in NF - my gut feeling is right, many people think that market will open UP tom.
@Mr.GG
Thanks for that info. Lets see how it goes
shorted at bank nifty at cmp ....stop 9550
June 30, 2010 3:28 PM
************************************
book profits at CMP
@ilango
Hope you and Manu have left some mo(n)k after yesterday's party (wishful thinking!)
I need one today :))
NF trading with 8 rs. premium....
@ alpesh,
BN has bad TA. Only thing that is good in it is a minor double bottom @ 9300.
It is risky. Go with your intuition.
As long as 5200PE unwinding doesn't happen....no indication of downfall. 86lacs of OI at d moment. Whereas on 5300 level difference of just 7 lacs b/w 5300CE/PE...may reduce by the time we close.
I maintain my previous view....any fall to 5200(if any) is good buying opportunity.
NF Premium of 9 pts. now.
@San
Nice chart
@ Anuj,
Party cancelled yesterday as NF did not score the century..
It's going up, but at a crawl.:/
@all
OI data as off now suggests, still bears have not taken the driver seat..
5200 put holds highest base, and PCR stands at 2.67, only thing for bulls concern is almost 85 lacs total OI, but change in OI on positive side is only 4 lacs, so we can say positional writers are stll holding their put positions..
5300 pcr is 0.87, if it decreases then only it can show sign of breaking out..towards downside..
The Draft of POTS was laid at the lotus feet of My Master for approval,
His reply :-
Hi..Dinesh,
Just wonderful. I am proud to have known you.
Your continuous efforts to initiate people to stock markets with "easy to follow methods" have already been proved beyond doubt.
This one will be another gem in your crown.
My best wishes and may God bless you with ever lasting contentment.
Best regards.
ilango.
Sir,
May be we can have “small” instead of “large” as spot did century :)
Bye Sir.
Bye Friends.
Will rush for the POTS of Gold to DR.
sir
i m still waiting for party at peak..Triund..
its a difficult terrain(like nifty)..
on the way u will find Firangis(FII) on both sides
me,anuj waiting fr u along with mo(n)k and Ak-47(Rg)
do not miss the action come fast..
@Ilango
"Pots"
He is another example of a "cracked pot"
I will some day create a system as well
will call it "Profit Only Trading in Index"
In short "POTI"...:))
sir,
market closed below 5ema, is this a signal for sell on rise till it closes above it.
@manu bhai
How do you trek with over dose of mo(n)k
Are you sure you had thrown a stone to measure the depth and not your shoe!
Check the baggage and confirm
sorry sir...was away in a team lunch as our global head had come !
OI.....importantly, 5200 PE is carrying huge total OI and with a significant addition of 3 lacs. seems to ratify your strong point of 5210 !
and...all of 5300, 5400 and 5500 seeing stredy build up of OI indicating very narry range for the immediate coming days.....5300 saw a massive addtion today of 10 lacs.
regards
Az hi..
cn u cm on ojn chat box
I am so confused on market direction after today. After initial fall, market showed lot of strength at 5240. But FIIs are net short. And 5200 OI shows support for 5200. But 5300 changed today and shows resistance. So looking for direction. I am still long from yesterday but confused on where this market wants to go.
Dear Dinesh Rishi - Ilango is a teacher at the MBA colleage - his desire is to ensure that all his students become businessmen (finalize a method of trading and go fulltime) - however the easy way is to join a multinational company with big paycheck (looking for tips from other people) - Congratulations for jumping from the plane in 2008 and becoming a professional trader - My very best wishes to you - regards Deepak
Dear ka,
Thanks,but 3 lac addition in 5200 PE can not be called significant.On the contrary today 5300 CE was written firmly.Intraday 25 % addition was there when market players are expecting break out on upper side with the strong support at 5200 due to significant PE writing at 5200. Intraday addition of 25.50 lac O.I. in NF is also threatening part because if the overnight and tomorrow morning market clues shall be negative then again like today, a gap down opening threat will be there and it will be a serious headache for Bulls.The intraday range for Nf was 5275-5231,just 44 points means for every 2 points there is a addition of 1 lac plus O.I. in NF. The EOD Bhav copy will be interesting today for O.I.purpose.So all n all very tough to decide and play, up to either side break out,so let us see tomorrow.Thanks.
Dear golfdude,
Not only you but we are also confused.As you might be intra as well as positional player so due to holding you are and should be worried.And it is but natural.I am sure you will handle the situation calmly and bravely.All the Best.Cheers.
@GD - no clue on this right now. Gut feeling is a drop tomorrow.
But no positions right now.
@gd..and others...
since we vehemently follow Ilango sir and thereby his dictum (EW!), we seem to have missed the most important thing on which EW is premised !!!
That EW, and thereby market, is a graphical depiction of human activity while dealing with THE MOST IMPORTANT thing in this world - MONEY. And as we bore wave pattern in our activity-thoughts, so also some lull periods in day to day life in which we dont know what next ! this is very usual, right ! so is this market activity. the whole of the equities is lull now without a clue to proceed surrounded by problems...but definitely India and asia is itching to go up ! only, a small postive trigger to eject us to next level of activity.
see such days in that perspective....nobody, not even fii's will have a say...they would also be in such mooods.
Hi Mynac...how are you ! your inputs are always dear to everyone actually !!
mynac, the word significant assumes importantance b/c that strike is carrying high OI, besides inspite of uncertanities persisting all around there are that much number of people ( or contracts !!) taking supportive positions at almost ATM price. so, significant is their thought and their strategy.
@kgovind
I have lot of rspect for Ilango and you have twisted the facts and stated what is convenient to you.You have not produced the context in which it was said which already expressed so many times in this forum . That is the differnce in which I approach the markets and I stand by that. People can express their opinion and I was highlighting the risk of FNO. I already know youor IP address and next time you do this you will be behind bars. As of now, I have a strong legal case against you for producing my content without my permission.
Your post has created lot of ill-feeling and in future refrian from doing this. We will always have issue based fights
MARKET IS IN VOLATILE PHASE WITH HIGHER LOWS FORMATION.
Regards,
Nifty Tips Blog
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