Interestingly, the +ve divergence persists and the major concern is that it is taking sooo much time to reflect into price upmove.. Be alert.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Nifty Intraday Update-II
Nifty Hour 9-Rsi chart reveals the corrective nature of this market. A break out may give an upward momentum. Till then lows are possible.
Interestingly, the +ve divergence persists and the major concern is that it is taking sooo much time to reflect into price upmove.. Be alert.
Interestingly, the +ve divergence persists and the major concern is that it is taking sooo much time to reflect into price upmove.. Be alert.
61 comments:
@ilango sir,
Given day low EMA is 5243, and past 2 hours our closing is closer to that, chances seem higher for us to break the low EMA.
I think 12-o-clock High should be 5254 not 5244
NF discount signifies that bulls are giving up or have given up their hopes for very short term atleast. Also, aggressive call writing is signifying same trend.. Extreme bearishness
thnx sir ..
12 rsi is not much clear but defines trend better
@ gd,
As shown in the Premarket chart, a downward three wave is assumed.And it is unfolding accordingly.
With 250+ point decline of Dow was withstood by our markets yesterday and a 95 point decline is causing serious concern.
@ Raj Lakhani,
Thank you. I will correct it.
It is the same with S&P500's 1040 held for two occasions and the third failed. Any support if not producing a decent rally after two visits is a suspect.
NIFTY MAY COME 5185
Hi Ilango,
With regard to the S&P, there is a case for a bigger H&S
formation. And the breakdown is at 1040.
Also 4th Wave Channel Break usually happens once and then a
vicious pullback for the 5th Wave.
Anyways we will see if 5200 holds.
GM sir & friends.
Even though mkt is trading week b'coz of global cues....but still nifty is not breaking down convincingly since morning. Everytime a new low is made, the fall is arrested to just 3-4 points below the previous low.
Moreover the difference between 5200PE/CE (84 lacs/32 lacs)is huge....so at the moment doesn't look like mkt is going to crack hard (as long as Global mkts don't crash further). So any dip close to 5200 will be good buying opportunity.
Also in the last few minutes NF disc. reduced & is currently trading at par with spot.
Shooting up.
"wealth creator" - why are you posting the same message again and again? it gives me an impression that you are on the sides of BEARS but market is not relenting.....:-)
@yoda
euro/usd jerks keep our ppl guessing about direction...
@illango,
I too draw, same channels in fast macd and slow macd chart, for breakout..it is also a good tool...a consolidation of fast macd near zeroline for greater time tells, us a directional move is on the cards...rightly said..
'stay alert'
NF are now trading with a premium......
One of my focus counters "Idea" is really bloating up. The results will be the sword ? Watch it in futures - may provide good Shorting opportunity at bit higher levels.
The premium is transient since this morning .. It's mots likely due to the swing in the spot price..
yes, Anil, either that or our markets are waiting for a cue from Europe.
'shooting up' was my wishful thinking.:)
@Yoda
Europe opened -1%
Huge battle now for taking 5240 over. But 5200 OI not budging. 9L calls added in 5300 CE. That does seem to be changing either. So we are stuck.
1% down, sryasmurali?
@Yoda
Europe now - 62 (- 1.22%)
5200 CE Addtion reduced compared to morning
Yoda
wishful :)
amen
ha ha ha Janak,well said to wealth creator.....
As he/she is not only bearish but seeking for an urgent attention i think.
For his/her satisfaction stay on short side with SL 5265-70 for 5220-10,below these 5175-65 till tomorrow
pradhan, i still think that these is a pseudo bearish scenario - at any moment, there will be a sharp turn upwards....let us c....
whats SL for long @ 5235?
@manni
nice observations, but can anyone compare it with historical chart patterns, so that we can make something conclusive out of it?
Ilangoji,
In the last eight sessions, in the US market S&P came from 1131 to 1029, losing about 9%. In the same time period, Nifty lost only about 3% (calculating from high to low in both cases). Though our market is one of the high-beta ones, it stood firm in the face of global disturbances. Doesn't this show that the probability of Nifty breaking higher from this bullish flag like pattern is much more than breaking lower?
Wealth,
Now you are become bullish or???
Simple Sl for intra is 5210 & if nifty closes above 5245 after clearing 5210-00 then stay on long side else will tested again 50 dema or 5165 by tomorrow.
it looks like market likely to pass bearishness in international markets with slow correction in our markets till 5160-5180 or improvement in other markets
Sir,
1.00 pm close is below Lema in both hourly and day time frame. So can we consider the Day LEMA would offer immediate resistance? can more weakness be expected?
different view
when everyone thinks in particular direction market does opposite.
in dec 2007 & jan 2008 other mkts were off their high but our mkt was making new highs and story of decoupling was going on. Ultimately up to oct08 dow lost 55% from its peak & we did 65%. (all decoupling was patch up in two days only)
china mkt was first to top out in 2007 as well as first to bottom out in 2008.
we cant trade nifty by watching dow or ftse chart but we cannot ignore also.
lets hope old story does not get repeated and concentrate on our trading plan with proper sloss.
@wealth creator
On OI front I can only add...
The kind of OI in 5200PE (now 85.5 lacs) is not something usual we see at the beginning of the series. This huge quantity of OI is usually seen during the mid/end of series.
This leads only to 2 conclusions....either the bulls are extremely confident about nifty holding 5200 or something major is going to happen.
That only time will tell.
@pradhan..
i am at short side now, till i see aggressive writing in out options or covering of call positions written, OR a claear technical indication from @ sir
till i see agressive put writing ( correct out options pls)
Bank Nifty has made a double bottom @ 9300.
Break of this will be a major breakdown-weekly channel support. This index may give an early clue in case of a break down.
@ Satheesh,
Till the day close happens, the intra hourly closes may keep changing.
Huge surge in Euro last few mins....nifty complementing :)
NF premium looks like its back, wealthcreator...
Action + Reaction = market .
In an uptrend market reaction exceeds action is
a place where trend going to change and same for downwards
It's suitable for all time frame. It gives who is in
upper hand either bull or bear. We can trade accordingly.
It has no prediction, no target only follow through.
I am not a caller or i don't have any client.
i am only sharing my view that's all, shall I?
Just for intraday view only, now bulls got in
upper hand above 5250
Yoda,
Still bulls are not out of wood safely,will safe traded & stay above 5265 till 2.30 then fire work may be started..
Non of meaning shedding/increasing 1-2 Rs.premium as traded almost flat presently
unless we see aggressive put writing in 5300PE or call unwinding of 5200CE , we are struck in the range of 5160 - 5340
bulls & bears are playing a ping pong game within the range.
closing below 5250 can bring 5200-5160
closing above 5285 can bring 5325
@ money
I agree
@ sir
dollar index dived below 86. Are bulls out of woods now?
its difficult to trade in rangebound market when stoplosses get hit in both the sides.
we should wait patiently at extremes to take positions
hi
ilango sir
can i short at this level 5265-5270 ?
whats yr view buz 5300 call oi add very huge
plz give suggestion
alpesh
time wise 4th has exceeded 3rd and it COULD ( CAPITAL EMPHASISED) be the end of 4th.Confirmation to be given by Ilango.
I hv seen many here who give lots of importance to put n cal writing.... I agree they r important.... but the writers have a whole month to take positions...
so it becomes more important towards expiry ... rather than during the month...
my personal view...am sorry if anyone is offended...
@money,
You said it.
My stoploss got hit at 5232, now I'm waiting for a dip like a bear.;/
EURUSD vs Nifty
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EURUSD=X+Interactive#chart1:symbol=eurusd=x;range=3m;compare=^nsei;indicator=volume+rsi;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
-- gd
Sir
can i assume if nifty closes abv day 5ema 5278
as a "5"th or
Dollar Index nosedived. Euro-USD is close to yesterday's high. Now If equities decide to follow the que.
Sorry, cue.
@ manojag,
Holding above 5240-5250 is important for this upmove. If it does and clear 5315 - the final confirmation of the 5th wave in progress.
sir
as monajag specified hw shld v consider
time fr the "5"th to unfold..
ONGC resumes its journey towards 1400.
Both Rsi have given a break out in the Hour chart.
NEW POST DONE.
@Neha
I agree that on intraday basis put call OI is of no significance, since by the time u get to know further significant change it may be too late. But on eod basis it works out pretty good & many times as good as following some Technical indicator.
@ Manni
that happens at times becoz they sell fr a few daqys ... n buy bac
within the month too....but then we never know whether the game
they r playing is shoret term or long term...so I feel
that we shud be aware of OI... but not give it too much importance
thats all.
sir ilingo how are to calculating VAH VAL for nifty future
what is the formula or site address please.
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