Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Nifty Premarket View.

We are presuming this rally to be 5th wave based on our earlier plan and the way the prices have unfolded so far. 5th wave can end up in many ways - ending diagonal, truncation(not making new highs), a fast & furious one equalling the 1st wave(5545) or 1.618 times(5737) the 1st wave but never the largest of the 5 waves.
However, we will follow the sub waves to identify the form & possible targets.
I missed all those comments interactions and some found it quite helpless and that is disheartening. I keep updating "hourly" the tech table and that should guide you. That tech. table is "market-supreme" - price manifestations and not a manipulated one.If you follow them, it gives you big.
The alternative bearish view: If this upmove gets resisted @ 5345-5355 zone and falters and falls in the coming days and breaks below 5235 & 5210, a more serious correction may unfold. So watch the price action @ 5345 zone whenever it comes.

56 comments:

San said...

Good morning everyone

Nifty daily chart analysis.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/07/nifty-daily-chart-analysis_07.html

Thank you

Prabakar said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir, Yoda Sir and everyone.

golfdude said...

My 2 cents...OI data at 5300 still does not favor a big run for the bulls. Also 5400 has not changed at all. If you look at previous months run ups, usually there is call unwinding also happenning as big runups happen. Also FIIs are still net 5000 Cr short. So I dont expect much of a upside from here.

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Paresh said...

Watch out for Nifty spot 5315 today. It could be the turning point intra-day.

r m said...

Good Morning all!

Local said...

gm all, Prabakar, rm.:)

I'm expecting Nifty to halt around 5315, maybe even turn down to 5262 before it goes on, unless it gaps up.

VIKAS said...

can i find sum post on how to use tables..?

u.k.Raj said...

Good Morning ALL

wealth creator said...

gm all

yesterday, no aggressive put writing seen , nor any aggressive call unwinding.

Local said...

VIKAS, read the 'Always start Trading with these ...' on the right.

wealth creator said...

i think market players are jittery this morning. 5400 CE is whacked down from 50 yesteray to 40 today. %300 down from 100 to 85.

Rajagopal said...

Good Morning Sir and Friends.

golfdude said...

@wealthcreator,

It could be due to the fact that the 15 pt premium in futures are reduced to 3. Short covering over it appears.

Local said...

I think it can fall to 5245 (the midpoint), which would be ideal to go long.

Local said...

Such a relief to have comments back. One only realises how lonely trading is when you're gagged.:)

satheesh said...

Good morning Ilango sir and all

Yoda - Very true!!!

golfdude said...

@yoda,

3 paper trades. 2 losses, 1 gain. Net -11 pts. Went long again. Exit strategy still not clear. Check doc for more details.

wealth creator said...

5245 will mean , we are back to square one .

Janak said...

dear ilango Sir, all,
pl. let me know ur views on this:

GESHIP - Stock price is Rs. 302
Future price is Rs. 295

in this scenario - future price also should catch up with this? my broker has given a buy call for future...

wealth creator said...

we might close more than 100-150 points today as europe may open deep down and who knows what US markets will do on downside. It still has not cracked, if there is double dip recession there.

wealth creator said...

state bank, ril all cracking and bringing nifty down

Rahul said...

Janak please check if there is any dividend pay out then the spot price will come down to future levels.

rgds
rishav

Local said...

gd, I think your entry and exit is not ideal. You're getting stopped out for your exit, so that needs adjusting. As for the entry, like today, you've got in too early. Maybe enter only on ORB in the morning, as Jay suggested.

Anyway, I'm sure you'll notice it soon and make the necessary changes.:)

wealth creator said...

5300 CE is now 77 down from 100 yesterday.

Rajagopal said...

Brings back memories of Last week. First day up +60 next day down 60 - just check. History repeats or is it the Wave?

Local said...

I do notice you're putting in the morning data at 9:10 or so, which is a very positive change.

Local said...

Looks like the correction hasn't finished yet, RG, I think it didn't go high enough to break out.

Janak said...

thnx rishav,
someone has shorted NIFTY in bulk....

golfdude said...

@yoda,

If we start using other criteria, then it is limitless. The original exercise was to use just EMA crossovers to trade. Assuming that, all 3 trades would have been a loss because even the positive trade would have failed today because the table still says as a long. So I am trying my best to be rational here. If we start including oscillators, trend lines, OI etc ofcourse we could make better decisions. But I keep hearing traders ( beginners ? ) who say that MA crossover ( or MACD ) will make them millions. And by my readings, in the S&P one would have gone bankrupt. In Nifty, if one had played long term daily chart crossover they could have made decent money. Shorter terms like hourly, I definitely do not trust this system.

Prabakar said...

CAC and FTSE futures are 1 % down

Janak said...

thnx for Jay, Yoda for your comments reg. brokerage - I am again mentioning that comment of mine for a wider audience:

Ilango Sir, Can't you pl. open a link on the right side about "Various brokers and their charges" - this will help us to find which brokerage is the most economical and yet good in services?
- at present, i use KARVY - they charge rs. 225-230 (includes brokerage + all taxes) for 1 lot of Nifty future…..
- Online Software GoTX - EXCELLENT
- Support - EXCELLENT

Dr. B. Amaranatha Sastry said...

Dear Mr Illango,

An excellent educative site that I have ever come across...
Those who want to have Astro view of the market may visit
www.thefinancialastrologer.blogspot.com
Dr B A Sastry

Prabakar said...

Janak sir,

it seems Ventura securities are charging very less brokerage. 35 per lot for option(for intraday only one leg)

Local said...

@gd,

I think you should trade with what you trust. If you're just trying to prove it wrong, you'll do what isn't ideal and pretend that it's alright.

Also, its only when you put your money on it, you'll see how well it works.

Prabakar said...

i am not sure about the software and support. In 5000 rupees scheme, for futures 0.025 and for delivery 0.17.

Janak said...

Prabakar,
thnx - can i pl. have the contact nos. / website address? it seems many people on this site has recommended GM VENTURA....and i trust all of u

Local said...

From the first, I've emphasised that channeling helps - which is why I included a chart with it to share.

Secondly, I expect humans to be self-correcting. If in real trades you see your stoploss hit twice, won't you change it?

Third, I've made 10,000 on mini and nifty in the last two weeks, so I wondered if you're just entering and exiting wrong. Just trying to help.:)

Sujatha said...

http://www.ventura1.com/04052010/EmailBlastCampaign1.aspx?EmailiD=gaw010@ventura1.com&gclid=CKql87XI2KICFdJA6wodtUnpxA

try the above Janak... for details

happy trading day to all.

manu said...

Sir & Family
GM..

Reminder:7th july Gb and SRi downtrend dates as per GAnn

scary but i m long(trapped) till 5210

sir shiva sir views on broader market

Prabakar said...

Janak,

It is http://www.ventura1.com/. You can get the contact nos. based on from where you are trading. you can also register in the website so that they will call you.

Ilango said...

@ gd,

Every method has its madness as well as magic.

Macd - is a lagging indicator, good for day/ week position trading as well as investments.

Stochastics - a leading indicator , good only for the lead and again good in a sideways market. One need to identify the markets one is in which is possible to a great extent by EW.

Each method has their purpose. For eg: A trendline tells you the trend is in force till it is decisively broken.An Rsi is good for "OB", "OS", & divergences and the rest of the time they don't have much utility.

Use each method for what they are good for.And you have an excellent "System". Find yours or follow the one that has established itself.

Anonymous said...

dear sir is it a possibility that the Y wave following X as mentioned in your post is forming a triangle itself and 5th is yet to begin.

the support for e of Y may come at 5240.

Ilango said...

BUY here for a rally up with a SL @ 5245.

satheesh said...

In yesterdays post, Babu had written

"now a days all are offering Advance brokerage schemes. For example sharekhan, i paid 60000 advance. 0.02% is the brokerage for me for 1 year. STT is common for any brokerage house"

Actually Bonanza Portfolio Ltd is charging very less for prepaid online schemes. Rs. 25,000 p.a and the brokerage is only .01% for futures and intraday trades and 0.1% for delivery. Rs. 10,000 for .02% brokerage. Their online software and support is also good. I am using this software only.

Local said...

True, Ilango, I think MACD, Stoch, RSI and SAR are popular because of their relative success. They aren't obscure, they're clearly working for someone or it wouldn't be on every software.

Ashutosh Agarwal said...

This friday I feel we will have 100-150 points up day.

satheesh said...

Even after your amount is exhausted buy deducting daily brokerage, they charge the same 0.01% or .02% for the full year. In case our amount does not get exhausted within the year, the amount is carried forward to the next year brokerage.

C.KUMAR said...

G.M.

Sir,

as per tech table below DHEMA it should sell on rise.
after many days yesterday nifty managed to close around it (on low vol)and today slipped again.
today's ORB is down and currently below VAL and DLEMA might provide support.
EW shows many probabilities but its bullish view and T.T. are opposite.
How to read such situation.

kkay369 said...

@ all
Ventura yearly brokerage plan of 7500 & 30000
is very good you will get your full brokerage
return back
i am in 7500 plan as per my volume of work i
received my brokerage back in last quarter
KK

Ilango said...

NEW POST DONE.

golfdude said...

I am not trying to prove/disprove anything. As I said before i dont trust this. As far as exit criteria goes, for folks who use this system, please give me your criteria. I will incorporate it. Today I did a paper trade because at open, my prev trade SL was hit, but the table said a long was still on by 26-EMA. And I got whipsawed. So this is not a good system for both entry as well as exit. Especially in the shorter time frames.

For example, ilango sir's table has so many criteria based on which a trade is initiated - 5EMA, lowEMA, highEMA, hour/day/week/month. And using trends, oscillators and EW , Ilango sir makes PREDICTIONS which can still go wrong sometimes.

So all I am saying is that it is hard to believe that a MA crossover is enough to be successful 90% of the times. For those folks who are following this as their main trading strategy, they must be using something additional that is giving them 90% success. Please tell me what that is and I will incorporate into my paper trades and check if my success ratio increases.

ravi said...

at last nifty have also astro??

Ilango said...

Day's low broken again giving the first indication of "Bearishness". (Deviation from the plan)

Ilango said...

@ gd,

I repeat to you again not to look for the "failures" of a system or a method but "How useful or valid they are for different markets" and then make use of them to "Make money".

I often hear people talk of "How tired they are of looking at various methods and would prefer sticking to one". We have all kinds. Some can stomach a comprehensive ones, some can do a single.

These are all tools. Use them. Just use them.

No big deal.

In the end, if you are able to make money with it, that is all it matters.

Everyone must pursue and find their own method of trading as it depends a lot on one's temperament.

assortZ said...

Sir,

Good morning..thanks for your last reply to GD..

But when we use many systems, at one juncture, some of them guide us in one direction and remaining systems guide us on opposite direction..we cannot ignore any system as they all guided well in past… how one should overcome this scenario?..

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