Open Interest (OI) observers/ analysts have been contributing consistently to enable us to judge market's direction/ strength/ weaknesses.
Our sincere appreciation to your contributions.
Though these may fluctuate, the very fact of their sudden change lends high credence to the price action. We, then, can identify a price action as "strong" or "weak".
Today puts and calls both are getting written at almost equal levels. No clues yet, of short covering on either side. Looks today will be a flat day overall.
Wealth Creator, OI - 5200 Put shows an addition of 1.74 lakhs compared to 64000 in Calls. 5300 Put shows an addition of 6.33 lakhs compared to 3.56 lakhs in Calls. Looks Bullish to me at this moment.
5300-600 CE are being bought ( IV rise alongwith rise in OI indicates that ).
5100-300 PE are being writter ( IV fall along with rise in OI indicates that ). 5300 in particular seeing good addtion. It might mean, 5300 can be taken over in the coming days..or the sentiment at present is bullish ( as sir says, imp supports are held day after day ).
The is the visible scenario...upto experts to correct/add if am wrong.
ORB - Opening range breakout, meaning the high low range set up by the market in the first 15 minutes or 30 minutes and the subsequent break out from that range for a directional trade.
You can read more about this with illustrations in No:3. ORB under "Always start trading with these" section at the side of the blog.
range bound trade between 5240-5280 likely breakout above 5280 can target 5300 .seems like dull boring day. we can play a 20 point game. 5240-5260-5280-5300
Good Morning, I am waiting for ORB to intiate a trade today illango sir. But I am more biased towareds the long side.The ORB high and the 5 EMA are both at 5277 now. will take a trade at 5278 NF only.
not tracking IV, but from yesterday , 5300 Call OI has increased significantly ( without any reduction in Put option interest), So maybe your observation is right. I am short on 5300 CE with SL 121
Don't be disappoint by Ka's reply,it means he doesn't seeing down side below 5100 from his so called sources.if mkt break 50 dema or important support level of 5165-75
That's why he had write the put series 5100 for hedging his longs 5300 calls
i think it's enough information right now for you.
@all Since we are talk options today Can any body post a link where I can get chart of each option strike price premium value on a continuous basis? Cheers
Ilango sir, in last 4-5 days i lost too many trades (as my entry levels are mostly bad, working on it). Now sitting with no position, now sud we short positionally if we again close below day low ema? or go long above 5315 only? Plz suggest, i m afraid of going long as well as short. Thanks
am not sure how to intrepret and arrive at your point. But what i see here is 5200 PE is standing with highest OI, obvisouly with major writtern ones, which goes to tell that market might hold 5200 till the cloud clears with upside potential intact. To ratify this point, not much of buying activity seen in OTM puts. This is my understand to stay positive. But ofcourse my lens is basically ilango sir and his view point. I guage everything thru him.
be careful on reading intraday OI. They just added 1L calls and the index fell 20 pts. now 55/56 in 5300. It was 53/56 sometime back. So these 20 pt swings can be done easily by FIIs.
@Anuj For puts: http://www.niftylivecharts.com/nifty_Option_live_charts_PE8.html
For Calls: http://www.niftylivecharts.com/nifty_Option_live_charts_CE8.html
hope this helps
@gd I know thats y i stated yesterday that i usually don't trust OI data on intraday basis. But as long as I don't see unwinding in 5200PE, I feel that bulls r still on the driving seat.
It is clear from the chart that this correction from 5367 is said to be continuing till 5310 is crossed(for the day).
I suggested in the premarket:
5265 may be at the open & 5285-5295 later on may act as resistances. Break of ORB low may alert you to a drop below 5230. Consensus seem to be to hold 5200 as of now.
As a trader you sell near the resistances and book out near supports.
We can not be 100% sure, a trade will go our way but we still take a probability call and keep a SL to protect ourselves.
When it moves below 5230, look for a support @ 5210-5220 and initiate a long with a small SL.
If you are uncomfortable trading the corrective range, wait for some confirmations like the move past 5310 or a strong rebound with volume from lows.
It does...but it keeps fluctuates in this range bound market.
One clue would be to see whether the premium sustains when Nifty moves closer to the higher range @ 5285-5310. If it still has the premium at that time, a break out possibility.
Earlier occasions, it lost the premium and came down.How will it be this time..??
Ilango Sir, thnx - not from tech. point of view - but from a sentimental point of view (isn't stock market the best guage of sentiments?) - i have been observing since many weeks now - there is a strong, very strong undercurrent for move UPWARD - that is why, whenever there is a fall - Indian market recovers sharply - look at US market - last 8 out of 9 sessions are in RED - I think there is lot of potential in Indian markets, which people see from all over the world and they are pumping in money....what do u say?
@kkay and manni Thanks for the links But....these are intraday movement that I can see in PIB(indiabulls Software) as well I need continuous data charts...like 1 mins chart for last 10 days of option premium Any idea where I can get that? Thanks
@yoda 1 min data source for futures you can get it from PIB...just as Ilango gets it for his hourly Or other broker softwares as well(I guess) you need to right click on one minutes chart and export data to desktop hope it helps
beware of FII now they will show you India growth story and now India has decoupled and India Shining.Indian investors are a gullible lot will buy at any levels and Fii's know this......they will try to repeat the same story of 2007 , jan 2008 and one fine morning ....lower circuit ...so please avoid positional trades and try to trade intraday though its difficult. i have lost lot of money in India shing story.. :-(
Upward momentum is very strong from lower levels, looking Inverse head & shoulder type formation on intra day chart. Shorties be cautious if Nifty future trades above 5285.
74 comments:
hi
sir today orb is 5277-5266 ?
regards,
alpesh
Good morning sir & friends !!
@ka,
Aplogize for being cryptic.
5300 CE/PE ( lakhs ) - 55/49 at open, 53/56 now.
So currently 53L CE / 56L PE.
Open Interest (OI) observers/ analysts have been contributing consistently to enable us to judge market's direction/ strength/ weaknesses.
Our sincere appreciation to your contributions.
Though these may fluctuate, the very fact of their sudden change lends high credence to the price action. We, then, can identify a price action as "strong" or "weak".
@ alpesh,
It is 5277 to 5260.
@ alpesh,
Incase "5260" is broken, 5240-5245 should offer good support as it did yesterday. Only a break of 5240 may drag the index lower.
On the upside, the falling channel resistance would be around 5310. Presently 5275-5285 is acting as resistances.
Today puts and calls both are getting written at almost equal levels. No clues yet, of short covering on either side. Looks today will be a flat day overall.
@Elango Sir
What is meant by ORB ?
Wealth Creator,
OI - 5200 Put shows an addition of 1.74 lakhs compared to 64000 in Calls. 5300 Put shows an addition of 6.33 lakhs compared to 3.56 lakhs in Calls. Looks Bullish to me at this moment.
Sundar
sir, wealthcreator,gd and others...
thanks GD for the clarificaiton.
5300-600 CE are being bought ( IV rise alongwith rise in OI indicates that ).
5100-300 PE are being writter ( IV fall along with rise in OI indicates that ). 5300 in particular seeing good addtion. It might mean, 5300 can be taken over in the coming days..or the sentiment at present is bullish ( as sir says, imp supports are held day after day ).
The is the visible scenario...upto experts to correct/add if am wrong.
@ Sryasdmurali,
ORB - Opening range breakout, meaning the high low range set up by the market in the first 15 minutes or 30 minutes and the subsequent break out from that range for a directional trade.
You can read more about this with illustrations in No:3. ORB under "Always start trading with these" section at the side of the blog.
@sryasdmurali
ORB = Opening Range Breakout
you can get more details on the right side of the blog under "always start Trading with These"
http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/2008/11/nifty-intra-day-trading.html
Thanks
@ ka
where you are looking for IV for put and call.
can you give me the link
@Elango Sir
Thanks.
range bound trade between 5240-5280 likely
breakout above 5280 can target 5300 .seems like dull boring day.
we can play a 20 point game.
5240-5260-5280-5300
Hello All,
Good Morning, I am waiting for ORB to intiate a trade today illango sir.
But I am more biased towareds the long side.The ORB high and the 5 EMA are both at 5277 now. will take a trade at 5278 NF only.
thanks
Hi Rajinish,
plz pardon me, its a strict non-public source.
regards
CAN ANYBODY TELL FROM WHERE WE CAN GET HOURLY DATA OF NIFTY
PLZ GIVE EXACT LINK
thank ka for the reply.it's upto you to share it here or not.
5300 OI update:
5300 CE/PE...55/49 at open, 53.8/55.9 now...
clearly put writers looking more confident now.
@ Deemis
http://www.quote.com/global/stocks/chart.action?s=%24NIFTY-NSE&chartUi.period=V&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.bartype=CANDLE&chartUi.size=620x300&chartUi.minutes=60
I too got it from ppl on the blog only :)
It could fall to 5230 if its forming a diamond inside the widening wedge. Which would also be a continuation signal to go up.
@ka
not tracking IV, but from yesterday , 5300 Call OI has increased significantly ( without any reduction in Put option interest), So maybe your observation is right. I am short on 5300 CE with SL 121
I'd approve of a fall only down to 5260, Nifty.:p
Rajnish,
U can view IV values in optionsoracle application.
*check the accuracy of value with others.
http://www.samoasky.com/download.html
hai everyone
Nifty 5 minutes chart with flags
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/07/nifty-5-minutes-chart-with-flags.html
Thank you
NF* I mean.
Good idea to wait, Rishav.
@ka,
IV rise & fall at 5300 CE & PE respectively..can we read this as this strike is soon going to be out of range say OTM..?
@SAN,
ABAN reacting from its 50 day EMA . I am holding shorts.
Thanks.
Thanks Gop for helping out Rajinish..
regards
Rajnish,
Don't be disappoint by Ka's reply,it means he doesn't seeing down side below 5100 from his so called sources.if mkt break 50 dema or important support level of 5165-75
That's why he had write the put series 5100 for hedging his longs 5300 calls
i think it's enough information right now for you.
Thanks.
Hi
Can some one give me the link to check EU futures.
Cheers
Akhil
@Rajnish
one more source for IV
www.myfno.com
free registration. register yourself..i just registered
Akhil
http://www.cfdspros.com/indices/futures-indices
@ Gop
thanks. but in option oracle we can see only @ EOD IV. not for the intraday.
@all
Since we are talk options today
Can any body post a link where I can get chart of each option strike price premium value on a continuous basis?
Cheers
Ilango sir, in last 4-5 days i lost too many trades (as
my entry levels are mostly bad, working on it).
Now sitting with no position, now sud we short positionally
if we again close below day low ema? or go long above 5315 only?
Plz suggest, i m afraid of going long as well as short.
Thanks
USEFUL LINK
http://protradingblogs.blogspot.com/
REGARDS
PRO TRADER
@Sriganesh...sorry missed your post.
am not sure how to intrepret and arrive at your point. But what i see here is 5200 PE is standing with highest OI, obvisouly with major writtern ones, which goes to tell that market might hold 5200 till the cloud clears with upside potential intact. To ratify this point, not much of buying activity seen in OTM puts. This is my understand to stay positive. But ofcourse my lens is basically ilango sir and his view point. I guage everything thru him.
regards
@manni,
be careful on reading intraday OI. They just added 1L calls and the index fell 20 pts. now 55/56 in 5300. It was 53/56 sometime back. So these 20 pt swings can be done easily by FIIs.
-- gd
@Elango Sir
I am holding 5200 put bought yesterday at 94.00
To hedge my long on nifty at 5320.
How to book profit on both side at what levels today or Monday.
Please guide me
@ anuj
hope this is of any help for option
http://www.niftylivecharts.com/nifty_Option_live_charts_CE7.html
KK
NIFTY clearly forming "Reverse Dogs tail in cats mouth" pattern. Normally this pattern ends at GKW. (God Knows Where).
lol, rg.:)
So true.
ha ha ha rajgopal... u are one boarder with tons of masala in bag...
me still laughing
@Anuj
For puts:
http://www.niftylivecharts.com/nifty_Option_live_charts_PE8.html
For Calls:
http://www.niftylivecharts.com/nifty_Option_live_charts_CE8.html
hope this helps
@gd
I know thats y i stated yesterday that i usually don't trust OI data on intraday basis. But as long as I don't see unwinding in 5200PE, I feel that bulls r still on the driving seat.
Should level 5240 Nifty be taken as broken now??
@Pro Trader
Please switch on some lights...its too dark!!
Good luck with your blog
selling is going on as if basket selling. see how fast and steep it is..
dear sir i sell nifty at 5272 with my "orb" can i wait
for new low or cover at now nf 5242 ?
regards,
alpesh
@ bizagra,
It is clear from the chart that this correction from 5367 is said to be continuing till 5310 is crossed(for the day).
I suggested in the premarket:
5265 may be at the open & 5285-5295 later on may act as resistances.
Break of ORB low may alert you to a drop below 5230.
Consensus seem to be to hold 5200 as of now.
As a trader you sell near the resistances and book out near supports.
We can not be 100% sure, a trade will go our way but we still take a probability call and keep a SL to protect ourselves.
When it moves below 5230, look for a support @ 5210-5220 and initiate a long with a small SL.
If you are uncomfortable trading the corrective range, wait for some confirmations like the move past 5310 or a strong rebound with volume from lows.
@Yoda
Nice observation
@ alpesh,
That is a very good trade. Part book here, trail the rest with 5255 (spot)
Ilango Sir, NF is trading with 11 premium - doesn't that also show bullish sentiment?
about the turning pt, Manni? ty, NF has turned here 3 times already.:)
vow - BULL train has started running - or has it?
Janak,
It does...but it keeps fluctuates in this range bound market.
One clue would be to see whether the premium sustains when Nifty moves closer to the higher range @ 5285-5310. If it still has the premium at that time, a break out possibility.
Earlier occasions, it lost the premium and came down.How will it be this time..??
What time "Hang seng" reopens..?
@12.15
Ilango Sir, thnx - not from tech. point of view - but from a sentimental point of view (isn't stock market the best guage of sentiments?) - i have been observing since many weeks now - there is a strong, very strong undercurrent for move UPWARD - that is why, whenever there is a fall - Indian market recovers sharply - look at US market - last 8 out of 9 sessions are in RED - I think there is lot of potential in Indian markets, which people see from all over the world and they are pumping in money....what do u say?
Nifty dancing to US futures tunes.
NF should run quite happily upto 5315 now that it has strengthened its base...
Ilango sir,
I think 12pm our time. A 2 hour break from 10am IST.
12 pm sir
@kkay and manni
Thanks for the links
But....these are intraday movement that I can see in PIB(indiabulls Software) as well
I need continuous data charts...like 1 mins chart for last 10 days of option premium
Any idea where I can get that?
Thanks
I'd be happy if someone shared a 1 min data source for NF while they get it for Anuj.;p
NEW POST DONE
@yoda
1 min data source for futures
you can get it from PIB...just as Ilango gets it for his hourly
Or other broker softwares as well(I guess)
you need to right click on one minutes chart and export data to desktop
hope it helps
sir...
their trade timings are like this...
Pre-opening session :
9.30-9.58 ( HKT )
Normal trading hours :
10-12.30 &
14.30-16.00 hrs ( HKT )
sir...i got a new decending,channel in hour....5220-272. Plz confirm and advise.
regards
oh...comical !
while i talk about a channel...i see market making it void with a decisive intention to move up!
Hai everyone
Nifty futures should move above 5283 with good volume for higher targets
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/07/nifty-5-minutes-chart-with-flags.html
Thank you
beware of FII now they will show you India growth story and now India has decoupled and India Shining.Indian investors are a gullible lot will buy at any levels and Fii's know this......they will try to repeat the same story of 2007 , jan 2008 and one fine morning ....lower circuit ...so please avoid positional trades and try to trade intraday though its difficult. i have lost lot of money in India shing story.. :-(
Dear All!
Upward momentum is very strong from lower levels, looking Inverse head & shoulder type formation on intra day chart. Shorties be cautious if Nifty future trades above 5285.
Rgrds,
KUMAR
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