Though the uptrend is intact, negative divergences can suddenly effect some sharp changes.
Auto sector generally start the uptrend.And auto stocks showed big selling with volumes. This does not mean that other stocks should follow immediately. They may or they may after some time. Weakening breadth is another cause for concern.
Best strategy would be to book profits in those overbought ones with divergences.
For the day:
5415(Break dn point) - - 5430(Pivot) - - 5445 (break up point)
5390 support.................................5460 Resistance.
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114 comments:
Dear Ilango,
Considering the connectivity/computer problem,to day you have given very detailed analysis in your first post for even through out the day's market action.So one should expect less personal enquirers.
From Friday the NF O.I.for this series has started to reduce means profit booking and squaring off will be the obvious action up to expire.Yesterdays and Friday's huge turnover and due to particularly huge reduction in this months NF O.I. yesterday, the equation for today's trading is changed.If the fresh bulls will take the charge from onwards up to expires i.e. up to Thursday then we can see even 5500 + for this series.If the Global markets shall be supportive then even up to expire this 5th wave can do miracle because unexpected is always expected here only.Let us see.Thanks.
Ilangoji,
Firstly, let me reiterate the view of Mynac regarding your tremendous dedication as even with all the problems on your side, you manage to post every single day every single month for 2+ years. Its unbelievable!
Secondly, whatever I miss in the market (that's 99%) is due to my own ignorance which I am carrying all these years. But if I can correctly notice even 1%, that has taken place after I came into this blog. I can't repeat enough times what a steep learning curve this has been till now. And I am hungry for more. So JN has become an addiction for me, which according to my grudging wife, gets the better part of my attention all day! :D
Sir,
I have been watching Bollinger bands and your levels. They have uncanny resemblance.
Daily Bollinger band levels for 27 july
Period BBupper MId BBlower
3 5411 5425 5463
5 5356 5419 5474
8 5350 5406 5460
13 5314 5384 5463
21 5207 5351 5480
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZU53ckHTvwo/TE2WsmLTgdI/AAAAAAAAA20/YxXlmm6x7Oo/s1600/bbdaily.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZU53ckHTvwo/TE2Wr76rN9I/AAAAAAAAA2w/raQ-KNAE1E8/s1600/BBWeekly.png
http://niftylivechart.blogspot.com/2010/07/daily-nifty-levels-27-july-2010.html
Good morning Ilango sir and everyone
We may get a minor gap up because of the U.S. Markets.
I have updated nifty daily chart analysis and U.S markets EOD analysis
Thank you
Good Morning all!
Good Morning Elango sir and All friends
Have a nice profitable trading today !!!
Good Morning Warriors
MARKET IS SHOWING FEAR AT START ATLEAST
this july series should not close below 5430, according to price ranges and OI of put and call data
Good Morning.
Hai everyone
The Ascending triangle in reliance industries may give support for the stock at 1050 levels. If the lower trend line gives support the stock can move above 1070 levels. I have updated the Ascending triangle in daily time frame.
Thank you
GM All.. my 1st post here. Have been a silent reader for a week.
Gr8 forum i must say :)
Thanks to ilango for sharing your gyan to all here. Keep it up!
Dear Sir,
INTRADAY NIFTY TRENDS
Today the strong support for the Nifty at 5350. One can trade on dips and in second half market seems to be strong.
Good Morning Sir.
Good Morning Friends.
Nifty could turn and go up from here ... if it wanted to. There's still so much upside left in the truncation, I'm afraid to go short.
Dear Sir,
Nifty support level for today 5350 and resistance level in between 5450-5460.
DAILY & WEEKLY NIFTY REPORTS
I am with you Yoda
Yoda market is preparing for an upmove by 11.30 i suppose all charts will be oversold and then after the policty upmove in the bank counters
dear ilango
ur patience is always appreciated....
GM ALL
First Quarter Review of the Monetary Policy for 2010-11 at 11.30 a.m. on July 27, 2010
Be cautious
Looks like all are Bullish.. but i am short on NF@5420 with 2/3 of cash.
I thing the monetary policy would be a non event today ...... Since we all adn the market are chewing the news since july starting
Anybody has views on Tata steel scrip technically?? Is there any steam left?
Yoda,
NH had daily highs like 5415.9, 5412, 5411.9 last week. So till the time 5411 does not break, one should not short.
regards,
Sunil
@Uplakshaya Jain
Ilango sir already warned not to advertise here about your blogs. Please dont do that again.
Good Morning Everybody!
If we go with the Evening star chart pattern then RBI is going to give some negative surprise. In Last 2-3 days Nifty is not holding above Hourly HEMA so its caution time & alarming some reversal. Remember any high speed veichle may not take U-turn in high speed so its looking like calm before storm.
Rgrds,
KUMAR
Tech stocks holding the indices till now.
Strikes 5200-5600 Change in OI
Calls - 403,500
Puts - 1183,950
People buying puts before RBI meet
unwinding in calls
5200 - 43850
5300 - 27100
ty for the company and views, wealthcreator, powertrade, moneyinruppees.:) This correction seems endless because of its flatness.
It seems All these new female entrants on the blog are employ of some firm and are here to promote their firm seems they are technicaly educated and have some targets to acheive little do they understand that we people involved here quite self sufficient and would hardloy be their fish.seems they are simply wasting their time as i have observed they are trying to teach the master also who is the principal of the ta school.hope they will take some sense and understand that they are simply disturbing us
Huge addition of 20lac in NF Aug.series in first hour.From the market action bears are trying to press down Nifty very hard but not succeed in it and 2350000 Cr.Turnover in just 1st trading hour is the evidence of the same.Near expire very interesting market action.
INFOSYSTCH +3.44
HEROHONDA +1.92
TCS +1.17
ITC +0.98
ONGC +0.98
Others +8.77
Up(31) +17.26
LT -8.79
ICICIBANK -2.50
HDFC -2.36
GAIL -1.49
BHEL -1.49
Others -5.90
Down(19) -22.54
662↑ 575↓
Market breadth good, LT dragging the market, if it reverses?
exited nifty 5500 puts(2) bought yesterday at average
price of 85 @ 88.
bought nifty 5400 call @ 46 (2 lots) SL 36
Target 60/Higher
HI MYNAC
Decisive move will come only below 5400
and above 5450. Till then one can only think of picking
10 points here and there.
Sir, it seems we will get higher levels to short unless
RBI action is harsher than anticipated.
Hi dear wormwood34 !
hi yoda, in backlog i saw ur commend on sar trading. how can we use sl for that?
added two more 5400 calls @ 48.5
Sir,
Do we have positive divergence on 5d yahoo charts?
gm sir and friends
@shatakshi ,
we have a slight positive div
GM everyone.
Interesting battle is ON betn. BEARS/BULLS....
Some points to ponder:
1). Since few days US/ASIA is closing in GREEN - what are the chances of that today?
2). What if they decided to profit-book today? (Asia has already started doint it, chk. out)
@shat Positive divergence can only develop if we go below 5304 ............
@yoda
even if ur mind says something else
u can still take a small short as per sir's trade till
reversal is not sounded. it pays to listen to him.
holding nifty 5500 ce this month @17.15, want suggestion from senior .
thanks piyush
Can you explain little bit powertrade
@Shatakshi,
I also thought postive divergence seen in Yahoo Nifty 5 day chart. If we dont break 5409, we could move up. I am squaring -off shorts made yesterday.
Sorr shat its 5408
Reliance is making the same chart pattern as in March 2009 ...... I hope in august we may see 1250-1300+ levels
market testing bolling band ( period 3) lb 5411 mid 5425 ub 5463
5411 tested.. will we have 5463 today?
sir.. ur enlightment is needed.
hi dear sir ilango
Bank nifty has create bearish flag pattern in daily
chart and its support has 9970-9950 & resis. @10170
if break 9950 so we get 150-200 point quick
regards,
alpesh
hieee llango sir and all friends v good moring to all.... bhavan sir v nice to say and m with u :)
still thare is no sellling from fii desk
except reliance 80 lakh yestardy
one should not short nifty instade of shorting 5500 call of aug
aug series is less risky
Vix is stable from morning for today.
guess we wont see significant movement til credit policy
is announced... n then the movement mite be swift fr all we
know... lets see
falling wedge in an uptrend ,is bullish. most probably this is wave ii of 5
@All,
i have taken this opportunity of the dead market to get a quick glance at the Sectoral indices charts. It may or may not help us getting some other perspective of the market. One word of caution. The analysis is a quick check, not in depth; and it may be biased somewhere as I am short the market with 2/3rd of my position.
Auto (CMP 8235) – Broke channel @8365 with gap yesterday.
Bankex (CMP 11367 ) – Going towards channel lower boundary@10970-11000 levels
CD (CMP 5268 ) – Had a parablic rise to a year long channel top. Could not sustain above. A closing below yesterdays’s low of 5258 would confirm a false breakout.
FMCG (CMP 3239 ) – Ambiguous. Either breakout above 3275 or breakdown below 3165.
HC (CMP 5626 ) – In downtrend. Coming towards channel support 5530-40.
IT (CMP 5554) – Strong but close to multiyear resistance zone of 5575-5610.
Metal (CMP 15494) – Retraced exactly 38.2% of the last fall from 18737 to 13827 and now coming down. A failure to go above this will imply major weakness.
Oil & Gas (CMP 10495) – Coming down from 1.5 year long resistance zone @ 10900. major support@9500 levels.
Power (CMP 3142) – A move above 3200-3225 or below 3100 would decide the direction.
PSU (CMP 9459) – Closed below channel support@9460 yesterday. A move below 9440 would give it the bearish momentum.
Realty (CMP 3397) – In confirmed downtrend. Going towards channel support@3290-3300 levels.
Teck (CMP 3463) – Strongest. Now facing resistance @ 3490-3500 levels above which a new bull orbit.
@ravi,
SAR works best on positional trading (using EOD day data and lots of patience). Use a free program like Chartnexus which has it as an indicator, or yahoo/google charts.
Trying it intraday would entail losses with whipsaws on non-trending days. But that's common to all indicators on day-trade, nothing unusual. I found it useful, but since last year was full of whipsaws it got tedious - now I use 5 or 26 ema as my sar most of the time (closer to the trendline).:)
Hi PS and Friends.
Since Sir has difficulty in updating, kindly provide the hourly values. Any one of you please.
@San Thanks for he chart on reliance
ty piyush,
I do have a mini hedging in a short since last evening. I've just put it on a tighter stoploss.:)
RG, Nifty spot:
10:00:00 5,418.60 5,432.55 5,415.10 5,416.95
11:00:00 5,416.85 5,421.45 5,411.75 5,418.65
12:00:00 5,418.60 5,418.80 5,414.50 5,415.40
you can count the '12:00:00' as 11:15 am, RG.
Nifty should break 5408 its taking too much time, it may turn out to be the 4th and nifty may make a new high.
@RG,
Can you please tell,when the outcome of the RBI meeting is due?
Hello and Thanks Yoda.
===
News : RIL to post best results in 10 quarters.
d ema 5,418 d hema 5443 d lema5402
10.00 5,432 5,415 5,417
11.00 5,421 5,411 5,418 (h l c)
10
11
hema hhema lhema
5,421 5,432 5,417
5,420 5,429 5,415
FIRE - Live.
@Rajagopal,
As per ilango, RIL may move up sharply abv 1075, sl 1050-55.
@fire,
RBI meet today 11.30 could be outcome
fire
11.30 am
@RG,theprofiletrader,wormwood34,
Thanks a lot.
Yesterday day end 9-hrs RSI was almost in over sold zone.And credit policy and probable rate hike today was probably factored in yesterday .
Let see over sold 9-hrs RSI and Reliance result can push up the Nifty or not.
It looks ii of 5th in triangle. May break out in upward in iii.
My feeling is that nifty may drift down to 5320-15 NF, but there's no downward impulse yet, so the direction is still up.
I could be wrong, of course.
policy out ,no -ve surprises
wow, what a rise!
RBI keeps CRR unchanged.
have we seen lows for today or another attempt will be made towards 5400
RBI HAS HIKED REPO RATE FROM 5.50% to 5.75% AND REVERSE REPO FROM 5.50% TO 6.00%.
KEEPS CRR UNCHANGED.
looks like a BEAR-TRAP.....BI POLICY: Ups reverse repo rate 50 bps to 4.5%....I thought market expected only 25bps rise.....
Knee-jerk reaction over. Now to see the follow up ...
Positive divergence paid off
breaking out of the wedge, initial tgt 5520, wave iii ??
mkt is touching 200 min sma... intra chart... lets see what happens now
btw... if we believe that the corrective wave 4 ended today
then it went to 5407,... which means that wave 5 cannot be too strong
Neha,
From my last experience, wave 5s are always strong, unbelieveable and people hold on to shorts thinking its irrational.
I did and lost a lot of money the last time around.:)
Yoda,
I agree.... only this once if u take that it has ended today then at 5407 it went below 5408 which means the top of wave one has been intercepted...whenever that happens as per EW.. then wave 5 becomes weak... if my reading is correct...if the top wud not have been intercepted then the strength wud have been strong only.
@Ilango Sir,
Initiated 2/3 shorts at 5420... let us know when to add more and SL?
Thanks
Yoda,
It means wave 4 intercepted... as in went below top of wave 1... indicating loss of strength of the mkt
the 2-4 line comes around 5420 ns and break of that without nifty making a new high could be bearish
You're right about W5 intercepting Wave 1, being a nonstarter, but this one shaved it by .8 pts, I wonder if it would count.
I also wonder though if we're not even close to wave 5, but just in a 3b. 3rd waves can have very long extensions...
lol, yeah, I mean wave 4 too.:D
@Ravii,
The SL is 5475.
The low of 5407 is spot on the lower boundary of the Rising Wedge in the NS hourly chart. In the next hour, it comes@ 5409.
Yoda,
I agree... that can happen... if we cross 5480... then certainly anything can happen... but the way things look... am a bear fr now... lets see....
Didnt it just touch the POC and now flirting around the VAL...if sir can make a livelihood from trading :-) at least us students can make some money by consistently mimicking him :-)
Neha,
I'm out of the market because I sold at the high just a few mins ago, but if it crosses 5450 NF, I'll get in on the long side again.:)
12 h l c 5,438 5,407 5,426
Strikes 5200-5600 Change in OI
Calls - 358,450
Puts - 2795,600
Downside seems capped
However fantastic the rise looked on an intraday chart, on a larger time-frame its a measly bump in a falling channel.:)
Yoda,
Good fr you.... since I already bought puts ... m w8ing n watching...in fcat cant watch much now...
down with fever
Dear Blogmates,
Please visit http://marketpulse-snp.blogspot.com/p/pivot-points.html for TA Pivot update.
Wont post it the second Time
Thanks & Regards
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
PS : Give your candid and straight view as usual. Where is the boat taking us?
rg sir,
if u asked me, there r no clear cut answers when we r
in a correction. there r lot of nevative factors, weekly
and daily ob, bearish candle formations etc
but till price cracks it is really difficult to tell,
below 5470-5380 hh hl formation will cease.
if price doesnt fall below 5380 and breaks out above
5450 we nay see highs also.
frankly rg sir everybody is just guessing..
below 5370-5380
9 day rsi has given a top failure swing means a sell
stop shud be again the high 5475
hourly close above 5429 reqd to make the undertone bullish
We are crucial stage missing the master
NEW POST DONE.
PS : That's it. Among all of us, you and Yoda are two who give opinion not influenced by personal trade position.
Thank you.
ilango sir,
not getting your post. plse. update ur view, sir.
Germen consumer confidence rises strongly ..strong set of numbers from Deutshe bank...
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